Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Zan15]

If I remember correctly, US is the largest oil producer now, but still outnumbered by Russia and the Saudis combined, so, they're still running the show.

And that last hour or so did not disappoint, a wild ride as promised. 900 DOWn for the day, July 2017 territory. The thread's title remains in full effect even after a historic rally -- to be fair, though, even a world-champion high jumper has problems when he starts six feet under.

don't worry in order to be back in a true bull market they need to close 20% above the all time high closing

[Theodarzna]

nothing like a 4.5 trillion dollar slush fund in the hands of Steven Mnuchin.


What could possible go wrong?


I knew the corporations were going to get theirs too, but that's a lot of dough and some of them complained some people might take home a few extra hundred dollars.

It's okay I guess, since most of that will evaporate after April 1st when the financial system topples because nobody pays their rent, and thus their mortgage, and thus their bills and the whole system of extracting money from the bottom to the top grinds to a halt and most of the banks implode.

Pull your money out before the 1st guys.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

I mean, it's absolutely in US oil industry interests as a whole, cartel or not. This price war will put much of US oil industry out of business if it continues.

Don't worry socialism will save them.

[Beefhammer]

Many places also stay open because that's their only hope of survival.

Company I worked for before - a small travel communication business that in its glory days had about 50 workers and already had to downsize to about 10 guys even before due to failed venture is literally now fighting for survival. It's not the matter of greed, I still have friends there - even before this shit hit they already were reduced to a tiny office - 2 rooms in co-working building with CEO (if you can even call it that) sitting with half of them in the same room.

And now this shit hit. The guys I know closely there are a developer, who is almost 50 years old and a family to feed, a CEO - 48, divorced with 2 early teen daughters paying alimony and a finance guy also in his late 40s with a family as well.

They all literally battle to keep the ship afloat now - it's not greed. Their business has cash for a matter of maybe 2 months if that and if it fails all of them will be on the street and it's not easy to find a new job when you are almost 50 years old and the whole world is going to hell.

That greed?

And there are many like them. I just got lucky I quit a year ago and now work in some big ass fintech corporation with 15k employees in 42 countries - I am covered, I can work from home no problem and get my full wage and I had a pleasure of our CEO reporting that they pledge to both keep everyone and they see this as a great opportunity too to expedite shift to cloud-based SAS solutions for the banks and financial institutions (our customers) who might want to save $$ short term.

But you have so many guys in SMBs who are totally fucked with bleak prospects.

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KEKW... You get unemployment if you're "fired".

Know how this works - your employer "fires" you, you get benefits for however many months you do (while you keep actually voluntary working), then you get hired back by the same company, just a bit different legal entity (because registering new company is easy as fuck).

I had this happen to me back in my youth when I worked in some small startup that got on hard times. You do not realize how widespread this practice is.

Law? Fraud? Who the fuck gives a damn - you can bet your ass in that small company example above - this is exactly what CEO will do and the workers will go for it, because they need that workplace to survive - they don't have anywhere else to go.

These SMBs are the backbone of the economy, they pay taxes in fullest and they hire workers locally, unlike your big ass corporations who have a good chunk of their human resources in some 3rd world shithole, because they can get 20 people there for the cost one locally and are busy finding new and creative ways to dodge taxes every day.

The greed part was more directed at the Hobby Lobby and Amazon types.

[Breccia]

nothing like a 4.5 trillion dollar slush fund in the hands of Steven Mnuchin.

Now now, it's not a $4.5 trillion dollar slush fund in the hands of Mnuchin.

Because Navarro is also involved, as appointed by Trump, to oversee the DPA.

"Oh, it's a good thing Navarro was approved by the Senate before flexing that kind of no-oversight muscle."

Navarro was never voted on by the Senate. Navarro is an advisor. Advisors don't have any power, therefore, don't require Senate votes. Unless Trump puts him in charge of a federal law directing US businesses to make whatever he says, that is.

[Resurgo]

This is scary...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-...110052807.html

[Zan15]

nothing like a 4.5 trillion dollar slush fund in the hands of Steven Mnuchin.


What could possible go wrong?


I knew the corporations were going to get theirs too, but that's a lot of dough and some of them complained some people might take home a few extra hundred dollars.

Corporations will have to pay most of that back or give up assets/stock in their companies. (just like 2009)

"people" who are getting the 1200 each don't have to pay back dime one till they make over what 120k?

So the real bailout is the 260 million people getting checks not corporations

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This is scary...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-...110052807.html

its also ironic coming from the party and administration that would cry how evil socialist venzuela was for "nationalizing" all the things they did.....

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It's okay I guess, since most of that will evaporate after April 1st when the financial system topples because nobody pays their rent, and thus their mortgage, and thus their bills and the whole system of extracting money from the bottom to the top grinds to a halt and most of the banks implode.

Pull your money out before the 1st guys.

little over exaggerated since mortage payments are staggered on different date all throughout the month

Also most mortage companies and banks are allowing you to not pay your mortgages if you have hardships for at least 90-120 days.
Based on unemployment that is only 4 million to 6 million people, with 60% ownership rates that is 3-4 million people who might request it.

the payments will just be added to the end of the mortgage.

People will now also be getting unemployment + 600 dollars. a week. I don't think most people are going to have a problem paying their rent. Even independent contractors will get unemployment

Your fears are a little overblown

[Rasulis]

If I remember correctly, US is the largest oil producer now, but still outnumbered by Russia and the Saudis combined, so, they're still running the show.

And that last hour or so did not disappoint, a wild ride as promised. 900 DOWn for the day, July 2017 territory. The thread's title remains in full effect even after a historic rally -- to be fair, though, even a world-champion high jumper has problems when he starts six feet under.

If you go by sectors it is even worse. Energy went back past 10 years. I did the math, energy sector went all the way back to 2003 before it breaks even.



In response to oil production. As of March 2020, US oil production is about 15.2M bpd (TX accounts for 5.3 M bpd), UA 13M bpd, Russia 12M bpd. Total global oil production is about 110M bpd.

Prior to COVID-19, the world was overproducing by about 3M bpd. Currently overproduction has increased to 8M bpd. Since the Asian countries closed down that number is expected to increase to 23M bpd.

The term “Peak Oil” has a completely new meaning now. So even if TX cut its oil production completely, it will barely put a dent in the massive global oil production. SA is having problem finding buyers for their oil now.

[Breccia]

this is why its so dangerous to hold stocks into the weekend.

looks like they are down about 2% in overnight trading.

What are you talking about? The futures market was flat this morning and aaaaaaaaaaaaah goddammit, you're right.

Once again, I'm shocked by how much the stock market, despite being a predictive force, doesn't actually seem to look ahead.

"There's going to be bad unemployment numbers." "Yeah, we know."
"There are bad unemployment numbers!" "OMG sell sell sell!"

"People probably are going to need eight weeks of alone time." "Yeah, we know."
"People have been ordered eight weeks alone time!" "OMG sell sell sell!"

Like, how much of my 401k is actually knee-jerked by people who wake up and see the headlines, instead of watching trends as they proceed in real time?

Anyhow, futures are DOWn 377 or so.

For further information, this Barron's article is titled The Dow Ignored the Spread of Coronavirus Last Week. It Won’t Be Able to Anymore. I can't get past the paywall, but that headline is ominous enough.

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This headline's for everyone, the article itself is for @Zan15 and @Rasulis

Crude oil futures drop at open on grim demand outlook

Price per barrel is brushing up against $20.

[Zan15]

What are you talking about? The futures market was flat this morning and aaaaaaaaaaaaah goddammit, you're right.

Once again, I'm shocked by how much the stock market, despite being a predictive force, doesn't actually seem to look ahead.

"There's going to be bad unemployment numbers." "Yeah, we know."
"There are bad unemployment numbers!" "OMG sell sell sell!"

"People probably are going to need eight weeks of alone time." "Yeah, we know."
"People have been ordered eight weeks alone time!" "OMG sell sell sell!"

Like, how much of my 401k is actually knee-jerked by people who wake up and see the headlines, instead of watching trends as they proceed in real time?

Anyhow, futures are DOWn 377 or so.

For further information, this Barron's article is titled The Dow Ignored the Spread of Coronavirus Last Week. It Won’t Be Able to Anymore. I can't get past the paywall, but that headline is ominous enough.

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This headline's for everyone, the article itself is for @Zan15 and @Rasulis

Crude oil futures drop at open on grim demand outlook

Price per barrel is brushing up against $20.

few words


pump
and
dump.


When you control billions its easy in time of volatility to make a lot of money controlling the market breath.

its also nothing new. Every bear market has bull traps. That is fake rallies. dead cats bounce. many words for the same thing.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ex...=mw_latestnews

[Thepersona]

So... i was deathly afraid last week about having the fucking virus, and i didnt even see this thread. Something interesting in the last week, apart from a rally and a freefall starting next week?

[Breccia]

Something interesting in the last week, apart from a rally and a freefall starting next week?

The rally from "the US is preparing to spend $2 trillion" was barely enough to lift Trump back to June 2017.

There is no more good news on the horizon of that magnitude. The bear has teeth, and it can outrun you. It might not be a freefall, but without good news, I don't think it will go up as much as it goes down.

[Kasierith]

The rally from "the US is preparing to spend $2 trillion" was barely enough to lift Trump back to June 2017.

There is no more good news on the horizon of that magnitude. The bear has teeth, and it can outrun you. It might not be a freefall, but without good news, I don't think it will go up as much as it goes down.

The possibility of using HIV drugs to interrupt the systemic cascade of the body killing itself trying to fight the virus might do it. Overall the medical community is starting to respond to it as a unique virus with unique responses available, as opposed to going off of the information at hand which was treating it like SARS or influenza.

But ya, all estimates point to next week being very rough, especially with Trump giving ground and extending guidelines by 30 days and with the possibility of New Orleans becoming the next epicenter for an outbreak. Spent this entire week planning on moves I want to make if it plummets down as much as we think it might.

[Rasulis]

The possibility of using HIV drugs to interrupt the systemic cascade of the body killing itself trying to fight the virus might do it. Overall the medical community is starting to respond to it as a unique virus with unique responses available, as opposed to going off of the information at hand which was treating it like SARS or influenza.

But ya, all estimates point to next week being very rough, especially with Trump giving ground and extending guidelines by 30 days and with the possibility of New Orleans becoming the next epicenter for an outbreak. Spent this entire week planning on moves I want to make if it plummets down as much as we think it might.

::cough:: Look at the number of cases in Florida.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

::cough:: Look at the number of cases in Florida.

New Orleans certainly will look like the next New York. City centralized. Probably heavily spread during Mardi Grus. Then it creeps out of the city. Probably also lead to spread in surrounding states too.

Florida is going to be a different beast. It is going to be state wide explosion. They refused to close beaches for Spring Break so you had tons of people coming and going for weeks. So not only will it be a state wide explosion it probably will also be the heart that pumped the COVID-19 blood across the nation out of selfishness for tourist dollars.

[Breccia]

Futures are actually looking flat or better. Might not be so bad.

[bladeXcrasher]

New Orleans certainly will look like the next New York. City centralized. Probably heavily spread during Mardi Grus. Then it creeps out of the city. Probably also lead to spread in surrounding states too.

Florida is going to be a different beast. It is going to be state wide explosion. They refused to close beaches for Spring Break so you had tons of people coming and going for weeks. So not only will it be a state wide explosion it probably will also be the heart that pumped the COVID-19 blood across the nation out of selfishness for tourist dollars.

Texas has a mandatory quarantine for people coming from Louisiana effective today at noon.

[Breccia]

Macy's furloughs pretty much everyone.

I wonder if we're going to see more of this, because the companies can say "they'll just get unemployment from the relief bill"?

Macy's stock price trended like the rest of the market, diving after Feb 22. It's about 5 now, down from 15 at peak.

[Edge-]

Macy's furloughs pretty much everyone.

I wonder if we're going to see more of this, because the companies can say "they'll just get unemployment from the relief bill"?

Macy's stock price trended like the rest of the market, diving after Feb 22. It's about 5 now, down from 15 at peak.

At least through May, furloughed colleagues who are enrolled in health benefits will continue to receive coverage with the company covering 100% of the premium.

At least they keep health insurance (if they have it) through the end of May. That's better than a lot of companies are doing.

[Breccia]

At least they keep health insurance (if they have it) through the end of May. That's better than a lot of companies are doing.

True, and let's face it, a lot of these companies have dire fiscal straights facing them faster than the relief bill will kick in. If your options are

1) fire everyone and walk away
2) fire everyone, but keep their benefits, or
3) keep everyone on payroll for like a month then collapse and go bankrupt

They did pick the one of those three options that is most likely going to result in their recovery.

But my main concern, as hinted at before, is unchanged. I think Macy's is likely the first of many who will do this. If by "this" we mean "stop paying their salary but give them benefits" there are worse results to have, I suppose, but the taxpayer will still be shopping at Macy's.