Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Zan15]

My question is who in their right mind would invest in a company, with diminishing revenue and mounting debt, that has not had a single profitable quarter, in a decade.

.

day traders and gamblers....

The single biggest threat to the stock market stability is not the record-breaking unemployment, nor the record-breaking drops of the retail sector (-24%), or unstable oil sector. The single biggest threat to the stability of the market is Trump.

No one in their right mind would sanction Chinese tech giant Huawei ability to acquire semiconductor chips from US companies in the middle of one of the biggest recession in history. The intent may be good, but the timing totally sucks.

Or threatened repercussions to Twitter, Google, Facebook & Facebook-owned Instagram, because they are under the “total command” of “The Radical Left”. Dude, that's like two of the five pillars supporting the market now.

What's next? Ask the DoJ to investigate Amazon. Never mind. DoJ already have a huge antitrust investigation against Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon for monopolistic activities.

At this rate, Microsoft will have to carry the entire market by itself. Unless he is already planning to investigate Microsoft? Satya Nadella better not forget to send Trump flowers for his birthday. He better make sure that Trump is not allergic to the flowers either

.

Sad and even the very core of being a republican is against every one of these moves....but they blindly follow him to stick it to the socialist lurbuals….

[Rasulis]

day traders and gamblers....





Sad and even the very core of being a republican is against every one of these moves....but they blindly follow him to stick it to the socialist lurbuals….

They probably could not stand the idea that the best performing companies during COVID-19 and the biotech companies that are closest to finding COVID-19 vaccine & medicines are concentrated in three blue states.

[Zan15]

Sorrento Therapeutics Last weeks vaccine lottery winning popped to 10 bucks a share, now down to 6. Still up from 3 though

This weeks vaccine lottery winner.... Moderna Inc
66 yesterday., 87 high today.

Cute how the stock had a little pop of volume before the announce...but no one will be investigated...nope.

[Thepersona]

Sorrento Therapeutics Last weeks vaccine lottery winning popped to 10 bucks a share, now down to 6. Still up from 3 though

This weeks vaccine lottery winner.... Moderna Inc
66 yesterday., 87 high today.

Cute how the stock had a little pop of volume before the announce...but no one will be investigated...nope.

Dude. Some news and the markets makes a meteoric rise. It's like they are desperate (because in the best scenario, a vaccine wont come out before a year has passed)

[Rasulis]

Disclaimer for Disney World Florida.

"An inherent risk of exposure to COVID-19 exists in any public place where people are present. COVID-19 is an extremely contagious disease that can lead to severe illness and death. By visiting Walt Disney World Resort, you voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19."

Wonder what kind of waiver they have on their employment agreement.

[Zan15]

Disclaimer for Disney World Florida.

Wonder what kind of waiver they have on their employment agreement.

good luck with that sticking in court if they are able to prove any negligence and even with that people will still sue the fuck out of them for a small settlement....

going to be the great Disney flood

[Rasulis]

good luck with that sticking in court if they are able to prove any negligence and even with that people will still sue the fuck out of them for a small settlement....

going to be the great Disney flood

The last time I was at Disney World was mid-90s and the kids were 5 and 6. I remember the crowd. I am really curious how they are going to maintain social distancing. Maybe limit the number of visitors?

I have been there only twice. I have to admit, those visits were a lot of fun.

[Breccia]

"you voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19"

Okay...wow, I mean, I think we all knew, at some point, businesses would shift the blame with something like this. "You waive your right to sue" is a minefield legally, at least that's been my recollection, perhaps @cubby can explain the difference between "Disney doesn't personally screen visitors and someone non-symptomatic snuck through" vs. "Disney employees intentionally smear COVID-19 samples on entrance tickets" levels of liability.

But this goes into why colleges are dragging their feet, even when talking about September. Harvard, Vassar, FSU and the University of Southern North Dakota at Hoople will all attract students from around the country, maybe the world. How sure are you they won't show up with a dry cough and a fever? They won't be vaccinated. Incidentally, here's where small local colleges will get a head start. Southwest Bumblefuck Community College probably only gets students from within a dead cat's throwing range.

DOW had a good day though, based on hints of a vaccine. If that's all it takes to get some people spending, well as they say, "change is good, you go first".

[Rasulis]

Okay...wow, I mean, I think we all knew, at some point, businesses would shift the blame with something like this. "You waive your right to sue" is a minefield legally, at least that's been my recollection, perhaps @cubby can explain the difference between "Disney doesn't personally screen visitors and someone non-symptomatic snuck through" vs. "Disney employees intentionally smear COVID-19 samples on entrance tickets" levels of liability.

But this goes into why colleges are dragging their feet, even when talking about September. Harvard, Vassar, FSU and the University of Southern North Dakota at Hoople will all attract students from around the country, maybe the world. How sure are you they won't show up with a dry cough and a fever? They won't be vaccinated. Incidentally, here's where small local colleges will get a head start. Southwest Bumblefuck Community College probably only gets students from within a dead cat's throwing range.

DOW had a good day though, based on hints of a vaccine. If that's all it takes to get some people spending, well as they say, "change is good, you go first".

Cut and paste.

The higher they go, the farther the fall.

Unlike the tech sector rise which was based actual profit/revenue/growth exceeding market expectations, the current stock market rise is based on potential (speculation is probably a more appropriate word). Most of the companies that contribute to the rise of the stock market today are still losing money. Boeing stock went up 12.87% today, yet the company is still in the same dire financial condition indicated in their 1st quarter 2020 report. Likely even worse. The same with all the airlines, cruise and oil companies that contribute to today’s market rise. Nothing has changed. All of them are still bleeding red ink by the buckets. All it takes is a gentle nudge for the whole thing to come tumbling down again.

Yesterday performers are starting to lose their gain today or flatlining. DJI down 0.3%. NDX up 0.6%. Once again tech outperforms. Internet, communication, biotech, microchip, robotic and AI sectors are doing really good right now. Based on the trend, I think COVID-19 will accelerate the drive toward more automation.

[Zan15]

CBO prediction is in.



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/cbo-...e-deficit.html

he Congressional Budget Office projects GDP dropping 38% in the second quarter as 26 million Americans remain unemployed.
The forecast is about in line with most Wall Street projections.

In addition, the CBO sees the federal budget deficit swelling to $2.2 trillion in fiscal 2020.

The forecasts are roughly in line with Wall Street economists and slightly less dour than the most recent tracking number from the Atlanta Federal Reserve, which sees GDP falling about 42% in the April-to-June period.

[Breccia]

he Congressional Budget Office projects GDP dropping 38% in the second quarter

As "fucking ouch" as that is...it's worse.



That's the Atlanta Fed. You know, the one we've been saying for days weeks months I do plan to finish eventually Kiff ages have been unjustifiably high? And now they're using backhoes to lower the bar.

Goldman Sachs says 39%. They forecast a big Q3 bounce, 29% to be precise, but yeah...we're not getting out of 2020 above the x-axis.

[Rasulis]

Talking about incoming second wave.

At least 25 million people in China are under enhanced coronavirus lockdowns after an outbreak of 34 cases in a province next to Russia

Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang have all reimposed varying measures in response to new cases as well as an outbreak from mid-April.

China has reimposed lockdown measures on northeastern provinces after clusters of new coronavirus cases emerged.

The most recent 34 cases were in the province of Jilin, where its two main cities of Shulan and Jilin City have both been placed under renewed lockdown, according to Channel News Asia. There are strict controls on transport and public gatherings, and schools have had to re-close, the channel reported.

Another three cases have been found in the neighboring province of Liaoning, according to the channel.

Jilin borders North Korea and Russia, the latter being one of the worst-affected countries in the world.

Just to show that this is not your usual recession. After stabilizing for awhile, the housing market "bidding war" is back.

[Zan15]

Talking about incoming second wave.

At least 25 million people in China are under enhanced coronavirus lockdowns after an outbreak of 34 cases in a province next to Russia



Just to show that this is not your usual recession. After stabilizing for awhile, the housing market "bidding war" is back.

ya I've been looking to downsize to a sub 1000sqft house in the country and these houses are dropping like flies and the realtor says there are multiple offers on every one.
She said she has not seen this kind of action in years that it defies logic.

[Masark]

Just to show that this is not your usual recession. After stabilizing for awhile, the housing market "bidding war" is back.

How many of those offers are corporate?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...street/582394/

[Rasulis]

How many of those offers are corporate?

https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...street/582394/

Not really sure. Maybe the ones in Fort Worth, TX and Orlando, FL. I don't think you can make profit renting out million dollar houses in San Francisco, Boston or San Jose. Between taxes, insurance, etc. you would have to rent out a 1M dollar house in SF for $6,000 per month just to break even. By the time you add overhead management cost, it is probably closer to $8,000.

[Draco-Onis]

Not really sure. Maybe the ones in Fort Worth, TX and Orlando, FL. I don't think you can make profit renting out million dollar houses in San Francisco, Boston or San Jose. Between taxes, insurance, etc. you would have to rent out a 1M dollar house in SF for $6,000 per month just to break even. By the time you add overhead management cost, it is probably closer to $8,000.

That's not how wall street makes the real money they turn these rentals into a form of mortgage backed securities to resell to investors. They have a high margin of profit because they rely on high turnover to avoid doing high overhead items like repairs, mainetnace and hire really awful property managers that maximize profit.

[Rasulis]

That's not how wall street makes the real money they turn these rentals into a form of mortgage backed securities to resell to investors. They have a high margin of profit because they rely on high turnover to avoid doing high overhead items like repairs, mainetnace and hire really awful property managers that maximize profit.

I still don't see how that will work in expensive housing market like SF. Average 3 bdr house rent in SF is around $5,000. Average price is 1.4M. Amortized at 3% over 30 years we have $5,900 per month. Property tax is around $16,000 which comes out to be $1,333 per month. That is already $7,233. Then you have to add your overhead (admin + maintenance).

[Breccia]

If anyone has anything they need to say to Pier 1 Imports, you might want to hurry. They've announced they could not find a buyer, and as such, will re-open just long enough to throw a Going Out Of Business sale, then permanently shut every single store.

[Rasulis]

I found this interesting quote from Satya Nadella from Microsoft quarterly report, "We've seen two years' worth of digital transformation in two months." He is right. Each major downturn – in this case, a pandemic – triggers a business model change in the impacted regions. Remote work is not a niche anymore. Overnight it became mainstream. Telemedicine has expanded to include remote handheld ultrasound and echocardiogram. Fully robotic drill rigs. Zero energy smart homes. Building Information Management. Marc Andreessen once wrote: "We are in the middle of a dramatic and broad technological and economic shift in which software companies are poised to take over large swathes of the economy." Well we are here and witnessing it live.

[Draco-Onis]

I still don't see how that will work in expensive housing market like SF. Average 3 bdr house rent in SF is around $5,000. Average price is 1.4M. Amortized at 3% over 30 years we have $5,900 per month. Property tax is around $16,000 which comes out to be $1,333 per month. That is already $7,233. Then you have to add your overhead (admin + maintenance).

It's the same concept as the old financial instruments bundling together of these rentals and selling them at high price the rent is the dividend sort of. Also there's very little or none of the admin or maintenance if you need help they just ignore you and kick you out.