Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Rasulis]

ya I was just reading that at the post office.
knew it was too good to be true. Those adjustments in a few weeks and next month are going to be Bigly. Another record...not in a good way.

So basically trump bragging about unemployment going down when in fact it went up.

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There is always corrections based on full data.

That statement means they will not do a special adjustment, but it might still be caught up in the actual full RAW data they get from the IRS/Employers/Labor.

The initial report is based on the servey of 60k households.

Adjustment 1 and 2 that are done from now till next report are based on ACTUAL full raw numbers.

That is how we came up with over 700k adjustment from March-April in this months report.



There seems to be a lot of weird stuff, 10% of the total job gains were Dentist....10%....260,000 dentist??



I've been saying this all along that the PPP is basically keeping millions of people off the "unemployment" report. They should be counted, but are not.

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I look everyday at my canceled order for Boeing at 125.....every....day.....sigh

It is interesting. If we look at the Department of Labor Thursday report that I linked above, on May 9 there were 24,912,000 people on unemployment, followed by a massive drop to 20,838,000 on May 16, then back up to 21,487,000 on May 23. What factor accounts for that 3M drop between May 9 and May 16? I can only think of one thing - PPP.

[Zan15]

It is interesting. If we look at the Department of Labor Thursday report that I linked above, on May 9 there were 24,912,000 people on unemployment, followed by a massive drop to 20,838,000 on May 16, then back up to 21,487,000 on May 23. What factor accounts for that 3M drop between May 9 and May 16? I can only think of one thing - PPP.

well anything after may 16th would most likely not have been counted in the mid month survey by BLS but it is strange to have that huge of a drop mid month.

its not like a huge population center re-opened that week.

[Poopymonster]

The peeps at my job that got laid off in IT, found jobs pretty quick. Companies are adjusting their work environments. As they can do more work from home, the more they will be able to hire. Even WWE has sent notices to people they fired, that they may return under a much lower salary. With NBA returning this month, it will just continue until it settles... I’m guessing around 10% national unemployment.

Which is a kick in the dick, because they were given really high salaries to prevent them from going to AEW. "Plz no go, here 40 percents, go pin Corbin."

[Edge-]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...mments-wrapper

So...we've discussed how unemployment increased this month, right?

There was apparently no nefarious meddling from Trump and it was an internal error.

When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.

The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.

Boy, sure makes today's victory lap from Trump seem fucking tone deaf and dumb as shit.

Oh right, looks like it's being discussed. Oh well, just another reminder about it.

[DarkTZeratul]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...mments-wrapper

So...we've discussed how unemployment increased this month, right?

There was apparently no nefarious meddling from Trump and it was an internal error.



Boy, sure makes today's victory lap from Trump seem fucking tone deaf and dumb as shit.

Oh right, looks like it's being discussed. Oh well, just another reminder about it.

That's especially hilarious given that in his speech about it he remarked that he asked if it was an error, and was told that no, that was the real number.

[Edge-]

That's especially hilarious given that in his speech about it he remarked that he asked if it was an error, and was told that no, that was the real number.

What are you talking about, it is a real number.

To him.

And at the end of the day, does anything else matter?

[Breccia]

There was apparently no nefarious meddling from Trump and it was an internal error.

Oh, dears. Well at least this is proof it wasn't intentional -- they would have waited a month before revising it.

[Paranoid Android]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...mments-wrapper

So...we've discussed how unemployment increased this month, right?

There was apparently no nefarious meddling from Trump and it was an internal error.



Boy, sure makes today's victory lap from Trump seem fucking tone deaf and dumb as shit.

Oh right, looks like it's being discussed. Oh well, just another reminder about it.

So yeah, haven't followed too close today. So is this Trump messing with the numbers? When then mention "error" I'm going to take a wild guess here and say that they fudged the numbers to make the unemployment look higher.

So if I'm right here or what I quickly read, then this is another scandal and stain on Trump. Lying about the job numbers is despicable, but hey it is Trump. Oh yeah, if he was bragging earlier today on a lie, he is a PoS.

[Resurgo]

There seems to be a lot of weird stuff, 10% of the total job gains were Dentist....10%....260,000 dentist??

Would it be possible that it was because dental work was mostly considered ‘non-essential’ and they were basically shut down?

Some numbers make me think that way at least.

(Unless you meant that was a lot of dentists? But then I was thinking their offices/staff included in that number too)

[Felya]

So if I'm right here or what I quickly read, then this is another scandal and stain on Trump. Lying about the job numbers is despicable, but hey it is Trump. Oh yeah, if he was bragging earlier today on a lie, he is a PoS.

This is a man that claimed MSM was lying to protect Obama, where the real unemployment number in 2016 was up to 45%.

If you follow his pattern of projecting, he probably at least responsible by proximity.

[Breccia]

10% of the total job gains were Dentist....10%....260,000 dentist??

Hmm. There are only 200,000 dentists total in the USA. Even if this figure counts their assistants, that's still a lot.

[Resurgo]

Hmm. There are only 200,000 dentists total in the USA. Even if this figure counts their assistants, that's still a lot.

I don't know how common it is since my experience at the two local offices I know of may not be good examples;
Two offices I know of here have 2 dentists sharing the office space. Each of them have their own respective staff to help, in which I've seen (at any particular time) at least 3 - 4 administrative office types at the front and around 5-6 assistants in each room prepping for the next person be it for cleaning or minor surgery, etc.

Needless to say, I've seen quite a few employees at 1 dentist. Dunno if that's what they're counting or what. Only problem is, like everything else, it's hard to know exactly what numbers are true anymore because they seem to try to fudge everything in their power to make it look better than it is.

[Edge-]

So is this Trump messing with the numbers?

Based on everything I'm reading...no, not really possible. Just a convenient mistake, but one that will not benefit him in the longrun when markets realize it exists.

[Zan15]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...mments-wrapper

So...we've discussed how unemployment increased this month, right?

There was apparently no nefarious meddling from Trump and it was an internal error.

Boy, sure makes today's victory lap from Trump seem fucking tone deaf and dumb as shit.

Oh right, looks like it's being discussed. Oh well, just another reminder about it.

I would still like to know who gave the approval to release the numbers knowing they were over 3% wrong???

It might have been an accidental error, but releasing it and making it an after thought in the report is ridiculous.

Even more shameful is how most of the press is ignoring that part.

[Edge-]

Even more shameful is how most of the press is ignoring that part.

That's my bigger issue, honestly.

I'm continuing to see systemic failures within the media in how they report on Trump, and it's infuriating.

[Zan15]

Would it be possible that it was because dental work was mostly considered ‘non-essential’ and they were basically shut down?

Some numbers make me think that way at least.

(Unless you meant that was a lot of dentists? But then I was thinking their offices/staff included in that number too)

Hmm. There are only 200,000 dentists total in the USA. Even if this figure counts their assistants, that's still a lot.

This is how you end up with huge adjustments the following month.

The unemployment report is based on a survey of 60,000 households. So its possible that the dentist and their staff numbers are adversely inflated due to the hit rate in that profession. Also the survey hit a very low number of successes relative to normal which will also impact results.

I expect there to be a BIGLY adjustment to these numbers and it aint going to be great, especially since they already said the error rate is at least 3% negative.


btw a 3% higher unemployment rate for a workforce that was 168 million is at least 5 million workers.

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That's my bigger issue, honestly.

I'm continuing to see systemic failures within the media in how they report on Trump, and it's infuriating.

its almost twilight zone that Drudge has the error rate front and center but other publications nary a word about it.

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So yeah, haven't followed too close today. So is this Trump messing with the numbers? When then mention "error" I'm going to take a wild guess here and say that they fudged the numbers to make the unemployment look higher.

So if I'm right here or what I quickly read, then this is another scandal and stain on Trump. Lying about the job numbers is despicable, but hey it is Trump. Oh yeah, if he was bragging earlier today on a lie, he is a PoS.

Nah it was basically a misclassification and people not exactly understanding what the BLS was asking them.

The real problem is who in the BLS/Labor department allowed the numbers to be published with this huge of an error and why wasn't the error rate the lead paragraph in the report.



Also remember that the unemployment is 13%...wait....16%...wait we are not counting independent contractors....shit 18%.....wait we are not counting people on PPP....24-30%.....and the millions who dropped out of the workforce.....32-35%.....

[Edge-]

its almost twilight zone that Drudge has the error rate front and center but other publications nary a word about it.

For Drudge, it's pretty red meat. Drudge has no love for Trump, so this is up his alley.

The rest of the media...right now unemployment headlines probably aren't driving traffic the way covering protests and police brutality is.

[Rasulis]

well anything after may 16th would most likely not have been counted in the mid month survey by BLS but it is strange to have that huge of a drop mid month.

its not like a huge population center re-opened that week.

That massive drop of people on unemployment benefit from 24,912,000 on 05/09 to 20,838,000 on 05/16 had to be due to PPP. It coincided with the period when people started receiving their money (late April to middle of May).

Some napkin math. The PPP loan totaled $669B. A business is eligible for loan forgiveness if they use 60% of the loan for payroll costs (not to exceed $100,000 annualized per worker). $100,000 per year corresponds to $47.91 per hour (including health, retirement, etc.). To be eligible for forgiveness, the loan also has to be used over a period of 24 weeks - 24 weeks x 40 hr/week x $47.91 = $45,993.60 in payroll cost per employee. So 60% of $669B is sufficient to cover the payroll for 8.7M people for 24 weeks at annualized payroll cost of $100,000 (60% of $669B divided by $45,993). Most people that lose their jobs during the pandemic probable were not making that much, so the actual number would be higher than 8.7M.

A lot of businesses likely rehired their entire workforce even if business wise it did not make sense since the consumer base was not there yet. After all, since the government was paying, the payroll did not cost them anything. Also, the effect apparently did not last, since the number of people on unemployment benefit went back up on 05/23. We'll have to wait and see what the 05/30 number looks like.

[Breccia]

This lengthy Reuters article tries to go into detail about those May jobs numbers. It, um, raises a few questions.

I'll summarize: the numbers seem to be based on three things.

1) States started re-opening. So, there's that.

2) The PPP program -- the federal government gave companies money to pay their employees, rather than let them go. In a sense, this was "better than unemployment" in that the federal government paid the wages, "laundered" through the companies, and nobody lost their jobs, benefits, or business.

...until the PPP money runs out. Which is due to happen in July. Anyone heard from McConnell lately? Companies that have weathered the storm and come out the other side okay will hopefully continue going. If demand stays lower...well, then those jobs fall off again.

3) Errors. We've talked about that before, but here's Reuters' take.

The Labor Department has been upfront about the limitations in its data gathering for the monthly employment report due to the coronavirus epidemic. For the second month in a row, it said the true unemployment rate would be higher than currently estimated - in May, three percentage points higher - as many unemployed people are probably being misclassified as being employed. There are also those who had been employed but left the labor force when the virus hit but would otherwise have been counted as unemployed if they were actively seeking work.

Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York, was among those putting some of the gains down to wonky math. “Are the furloughed unemployed or not? It seems too strange to me ... it’s bizarre. At face value, April was the low and companies hired massively in May. It’s perplexing.”

Other data including the ADP private payrolls report and the Institute for Supply Management survey readings on manufacturing and service sector employment all showed employment contracting last month.

We might not have a good answer for a few months.

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The World Bank predicts global economic output will drop by 5.2%, with more advanced countries (like the USA) would be hit harder and emerging countries hit less.

This will be the biggest contraction since...(checks notes)...since Trump was alive.

That, combined with BP's announced layoffs of 10,000 people worldwide is not great news for the world at large.

[Zan15]

this continues to baffle me.....



https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=BA&qsearchterm=b


Boeing Co (BA:NYSE)


229.00 +23.57 (+11.47%)

5 days ago 152...…




and its not just them....huge moves in a lot of big names that are so obviously going to suffer long term from the shutdown.

scares the shit out of me this market is in 2000 territory of buying.