Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Thekri]

Remember when i said that the dow will tank in a few weeks?

I hate it when i'm right.

Well Dow Jones is up today. Because wierdness.

Ok, actually not really, there is real logic behind the market being as high as it is, despite the apparent counter-logical nature of it. The Federal government has been dumping absolutely staggering amount of money into the market, and the vast majority of that is going directly to corporate shareholders. It is basically an "All you can loot" buffet right now, with all the federal aide money out there. Fear of missing out is powering the market like crazy right now. Everyone knows that it is going to tip over and fall, but right now there is cash everywhere, and gains to be made. Nobody wants to sit out the rise, so people simultaneously have the idea they are going to sell when it starts tipping over again.

The consequence of this is that when it does actually tip over again, I expect it to fall hard. Like historically hard. We are going to see an absolutely disastrous crash sometime over the summer, but exactly when is really hard to predict. There is still a feeding frenzy for all this sweet government money right now.

Trump isn't really the wildcard here for once, investors have largely learned to tune him out as background noise unless they think he is going to actually do something crazy. And there is one very crazy thing he could do that threatens all this...

Trump is the King of Debt. It is one of his few titles that isn't actually fabricated, his money pretty much entirely comes from scamming creditors. He has for decades opined about the option of defaulting or renegotiating the national debt. He has walked it back, sort of, usually with some other sort of irrational idea like printing enough money to crash the dollar, thus lowering the spending value of the loans. In other words, if the dollar is suddenly only worth half as much, then your debt load just halved in practical terms. Of course everyone's cash also halved in value...

Now to be clear, I don't think Trump could actually implement any such plan. Far too many people can, and will get in the way of that sort of economic apocalypse. It isn't out of the realm of possibility he may float the idea again, thinking the idea will placate his base that thinks it would be brilliant way to reduce the debt. It would be crazy and irrational, but I am still unsure of exactly how much control his handlers have on what comes out of his mouth. It could be an ad-hoc thing, and that would definitely result in a 3-4k one day drop in the market.

[Rasulis]

Chesapeake Energy has been in trouble for a while. I guess the weight of reality finally crushed them. I don't know what kind of help they're expecting -- they're basically fracked.

From what I understand the Chapter 11 restructuring is contingent on Chesapeake eliminating $7 billion in outstanding debt. In the past it is probably not a big deal. The oil & gas industry is full of companies that have undergone Chapter 11 restructuring. Some more than once in the last 15 years. EOG used to be Enron. Ultra filed their second one in May 2020 (first one was only 4 years ago).

Would be interesting to see in this kind of climate if any investors would be willing to put up that money. By all accounts Wall Street investors and banks have soured on oil & gas investment. We may still see a Chapter 7 filing from Chesapeake.

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.robintrack.net/symbol/CHK

Does that meant 216k people were left stranded holding worthless shares?

Looking at the ranking of most popular stocks on Robinhood and I just don't get it. DocuSign only ranked 234. GoPro is ranked 8. Aurora Cannabis ranked 10. Seriously? A cannabis stock? The field is so competitive right now with hundreds of competitors. Not a single company is at the forefront.

US crude storage is going up again. It is at record high as of June 19. It is not my cup of tea. But a lot of people been making a lot of money betting against oil price.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories reach all-time high

[Zan15]

Does that meant 216k people were left stranded holding worthless shares?

Looking at the ranking of most popular stocks on Robinhood and I just don't get it. DocuSign only ranked 234. GoPro is ranked 8. Aurora Cannabis ranked 10. Seriously? A cannabis stock? The field is so competitive right now with hundreds of competitors. Not a single company is at the forefront.

US crude storage is going up again. It is at record high as of June 19. It is not my cup of tea. But a lot of people been making a lot of money betting against oil price.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories reach all-time high

I don't know that is why I asked why it stopped updating it wasn't delisted yet its almost like they were hiding it.

if you look at the top 20 stocks on robinhood, it shows regardless of the few people bragging about how good robin hood users are doing vs market pro's....the vast vast majority of them are not.

like that one gambling moron running around bragging he's better than buffet and pros because he kicked ass over 2-3 month period....lol....
this is why I keep running from the market this is what they used to say during the Dot com bubble....
same actions, same people, same attitude.
Hell it reminds me a lot more of 1929 when everyone was in stocks, everyone had tips even the newspaper boy.

[Felya]

The headlines on business sites have a case of bipolar... Friday they claim market is dropping because we are heading back to lock down. Today market is going up, while sharing a headline with heading back to lock down. Pick a lane...

[Breccia]

Facebook's having a recovery day. While they're climbing out of the hole, they had lost $60 billion in market value in 48 hours.

[Rasulis]

I don't know that is why I asked why it stopped updating it wasn't delisted yet its almost like they were hiding it.

if you look at the top 20 stocks on robinhood, it shows regardless of the few people bragging about how good robin hood users are doing vs market pro's....the vast vast majority of them are not.

like that one gambling moron running around bragging he's better than buffet and pros because he kicked ass over 2-3 month period....lol....
this is why I keep running from the market this is what they used to say during the Dot com bubble....
same actions, same people, same attitude.
Hell it reminds me a lot more of 1929 when everyone was in stocks, everyone had tips even the newspaper boy.

I just assume that Robinhood investors are mostly young people with high risk tolerance. Actually, very high risk tolerance. Although, I still can’t figure out what they see in GoPro. The company has been shedding workers each year since 2015 plus another 200 in 2020 due to COVID-19. Declining revenue and negative cash flow for the last 5 years. The stock is penny stock (less than $5 per share). A fraction of its peak at $90+ per share. I don’t see anything positive about the company. Other than the stock is cheap.

[Edge-]

I just assume that Robinhood investors are mostly young people with high risk tolerance. Actually, very high risk tolerance. Although, I still can’t figure out what they see in GoPro. The company has been shedding workers each year since 2015 plus another 200 in 2020 due to COVID-19. Declining revenue and negative cash flow for the last 5 years. The stock is penny stock (less than $5 per share). A fraction of its peak at $90+ per share. I don’t see anything positive about the company. Other than the stock is cheap.

Probably a mixture of a cheap stock being "attractive" and them not knowing the full history behind the company. Based on everything I've been reading about this (not a ton, admittedly) it seems that Robinhood is very much profiting off of uninformed and reckless traders, often on the younger side, via a system that does a lot to encourage them to engage with it (buying/selling) and a lot less in terms of educating its new users about best practices. I mean, they know what GoPro is and that they see cool people using it, so it's probably gonna make a lot of money!

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-6-1029351423

And it's bloody working out for them damn well, and why I hate the nu-tech "solutions" more often than not. I assume the 20 year old kid that committed suicide over his negative temporary balance has already been discussed, but that's a pretty perfect case-in-point for just how irresponsible Robinhood is as a service when it comes to informing users about how the process works.

[Zan15]

I just assume that Robinhood investors are mostly young people with high risk tolerance. Actually, very high risk tolerance. Although, I still can’t figure out what they see in GoPro. The company has been shedding workers each year since 2015 plus another 200 in 2020 due to COVID-19. Declining revenue and negative cash flow for the last 5 years. The stock is penny stock (less than $5 per share). A fraction of its peak at $90+ per share. I don’t see anything positive about the company. Other than the stock is cheap.

from what I can understand there are a few high volume very popular streamers who have 1m+ followers who day trade live and they really influence people to pick stocks...drive it up....and I can only imagine sell it before the floor falls out.

I don't understand how they get away with it.

[Edge-]

from what I can understand there are a few high volume very popular streamers who have 1m+ followers who day trade live and they really influence people to pick stocks...drive it up....and I can only imagine sell it before the floor falls out.

I don't understand how they get away with it.

...do people look to livestreamers for stock advice like...in real life? And they don't think that these folks might have ulterior motives or that investing off of "advice" given to hundreds/thousands may not be super sound?

I'm all for breaking down the barriers to the market and shit but like...god damn this is irresponsible.

[Felya]

...do people look to livestreamers for stock advice like...in real life? And they don't think that these folks might have ulterior motives or that investing off of "advice" given to hundreds/thousands may not be super sound?

I'm all for breaking down the barriers to the market and shit but like...god damn this is irresponsible.

I don’t think it’s the same, but there is a similar phenomenon with conspiracy theorist. They absolutely need Nikon P900 or P1000... I think it’s only because the loudest ones use it. I have never seen an explanation otherwise...

[Breccia]

Almost half the US population does not have a job.

Obviously, that includes children/students and retired people, but you can still compare apples to apples. It was 64.7% who had a job in 2000, 61.7% in January.

[Rasulis]

...do people look to livestreamers for stock advice like...in real life? And they don't think that these folks might have ulterior motives or that investing off of "advice" given to hundreds/thousands may not be super sound?

I'm all for breaking down the barriers to the market and shit but like...god damn this is irresponsible.

I wonder if they take into account the difference between short-term and long-term capital gain tax. Probably not. They probably do not realize how much short-term capital gain tax eats into their profit. While long-term capital gain tax when structured properly can be basically zero.

Anyway, we are living in an absurd time. Record breaking unemployment, and companies are filing Chapter 11 and 7 (almost 5000 already) at record breaking pace. Yet, the market kept trudging along, Apple broke 1.6T market cap, FB stock is already starting to regain its value, and housing market is hot and prices going up. We have two totally disconnected economic systems.

[Zan15]

Almost half the US population does not have a job.

Obviously, that includes children/students and retired people, but you can still compare apples to apples. It was 64.7% who had a job in 2000, 61.7% in January.

you can just go off labor participate rates if you did not want to count children.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employmen...ation-rate.htm

Jan 2020
63.4

Feb 2020
63.4


Apr 2020
60.2


May 2020
60.8



now remember, this data includes the 3-4% "error" that the unemployment report had so the number is really close to probably 57%.


They shit on Obama daily for 62-63%

[Breccia]

Mnuchin says leftover PPP funds should go to hardest-hit industries

...leftovers? Why are there leftovers? I was under the impression so many people applied it choked out the servers.

Mnuchin is also talking about "the next CARES Act" so clearly more money is needed. Why are there leftovers?

Oh, and I get the feeling that these areas hardest hit will just so happen to be oil, gas, Boeing, and other friends of Trump. I'd ask how much they've gotten already, but they're still sitting on the list last I checked.

[thebmans]

Banks and big companies sold "junk shares" to people. Now they will live a poor life.

[Zan15]

Banks and big companies sold "junk shares" to people. Now they will live a poor life.

huh? how? what? dur?

[thebmans]

huh? how? what? dur?

Billionaires will delist their big companies from stock markets

[Breccia]

Goldman Sachs says that a national mask requirement could replace other lockdown issues, and as such, save the US $1 trillion dollars, or 5% of the GDP.

This would, of course, need two things.
1) Leadership in Washington (Congress could potentially do it), and
2) People to follow the requirement.

- - - Updated - - -

The CBO releases new unemployment projections. They say it will average 6.1% --

"Wow, that's much lower than the 10% plus everyone was saying! Trump gets another win! MAGA!"

-- through 2030.



Yeah, those GDP numbers don't look so hot either. 2021 might look high, if you're an intentionally ill-informed Trump supporter, but note that 2021's rise doesn't compensate for 2020's losses. Then right back to Trump-like 2.2% from then on out.

2025-2030 they project unemployment averaging 4.8%. Trump had 4.7% when he was inaugurated.

The damage Trump has done to the American economy will outlive him. He's not getting the GDP he promised. He's not getting the jobs he promised. He might have promised something about unemployment, but he's not getting whatever that was -- especially related to my previous post, and Trump bragging about African-American unemployment rates in the past.

Everything Trump touches, dies.

"Oh, fuck."

[Zan15]

Yeah, those GDP numbers don't look so hot either. 2021 might look high, if you're an intentionally ill-informed Trump supporter, but note that 2021's rise doesn't compensate for 2020's losses. Then right back to Trump-like 2.2% from then on out.

Everything Trump touches, dies.

"Oh, fuck."

time to make you sad


Lets see if GDP was 100

it lost -5.8% puts it at 94.2

To get back to 100 you need roughly 6.2%.

Now you have to factor in the normal gain of 2% that is also lost or that would normally have occurred.
so the baseline would be 102.

So you would need 8.3% increase in gdp in 2021.

Boy that 4.8% projected 2021 falls really short.


if you wanted really good truthful numbers you could go off the 4-5-6% that trump promised then in 2021 we would need something of the MaGa-tude of 22-31% increase in order to get there to make up for him not getting close for the last 3 years and the next two.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh here we fucking go again....Does the media even read these reports?

So it should be 12.1% instead of 11.1%..down from 12.4%.

Oh well what's a few percentage points between friends



https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm



| As was the case in March, April, and May, household survey interviewers were |
| instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to temporary, |
| coronavirus-related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff. BLS and |
| Census Bureau analyses of the underlying data suggest that this group still included |
| some workers affected by the pandemic who should have been classified as unemployed |
| on temporary layoff. |
| |
| The degree of misclassification declined considerably in June. BLS and Census Bureau |
| staff have been reviewing survey responses that might have been misclassified. The |
| misclassification hinges on a question about the main reason people were absent from |
| their jobs. If people who were absent due to temporary, pandemic-related closures |
| were recorded as absent due to "other reasons," they could have been misclassified. |
| When interviewers record a response of "other reason," they also add a few words |
| describing that other reason. The review of these brief descriptions found that the |
| share of responses that may have been misclassified was much smaller in June than in |
| prior months. BLS and the Census Bureau are continuing to investigate the |
| misclassification and are taking additional steps to address the issue. |
| |
| If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other |
| reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical June) had |
| been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate |
| would have been about 1 percentage point higher than reported (on a not seasonally |
| adjusted basis). However, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of |
| misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error. |
| |
| According to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as |
| recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify |
| survey responses.

[Rasulis]

Next week will be interesting. The market will have an entire 3-day weekend to disseminate the job report. We'll see if the market can sustain its enthusiasm once they realize that the number of people on unemployment insurance actually went up.

Lets not forget quarterly reports incoming. I expect we will some ugly numbers.