Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Breccia]

Now you have to factor in the normal gain of 2%.

This is a good point. A 2020 end of year -5%, for example, would be a good seven or more percent below even Trump's low numbers.

[Zan15]

This is a good point. A 2020 end of year -5%, for example, would be a good seven or more percent below even Trump's low numbers.

he said 3% is easy....I guess you just needed to get a negative 5 or 6% gdp in order to bounce back and get your 3% bragging rights....that is if he is re elected.

if not he just made it easy for Biden to get his 3% bragging rights in the first year.

lol

[Masark]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-permanently/

Unemployment is dropping, but with substantial racial disparities and this whole matter isn't over yet.

[Rasulis]

DocuSign is still going up up and away. It is still no. 200ish on Robinhood most favorite stock list. Crazy. Considering the stock is up almost 200% since March.

[thebmans]

Gold Price is $1800/ounce now. +40% this year

[Zan15]

Gold Price is $1800/ounce now. +40% this year

You almost got at least one thing right.

1,787.00

1 Month 5.85%

3 Month 8.40%

YTD 17.59%

1 Year 27.55%



Nasdaq would have been about the same bet....

YTD 13.76%

1 Year 24.94%


Gold would have been way better than the dow or sp500 unless you were looking at 3 month investment results

[thebmans]

You almost got at least one thing right1,787.00

Gold was $1300/ounce in July 2019. See your PM message.

[Zan15]

Gold was $1300/ounce in July 2019. See your PM message.

You must be sitting on gold for what 10 years now around 1850 peak?? that you have to prop up your gold pick on random forums.

Gold has always been a "timing" bet its really has underperformed everything long term



Gold Price is $1800/ounce now. +40% this year

Last time I checked its 2020 not 2019.

Gold July 4th 2019 was 1418.00 an ounce not $1300.00

Gold 1418 -> 1,787 -26%
Nas 8123 -> 10,207 -25.6%

There are others in the same ballpark

Whoo for gold??

Or how about the 10 year on gold?

Gold 1242 > 1787 = 43.9%
Nas 2110 > 10,207 = 484% <-- not 48....4 hundred….

Other general picks are not quite 400%+ but they are 150-300%.

[Rasulis]

Nothing wrong with investing in gold. The question right now is why? By any metrics, 3-month, 1-year, 5-year, etc., Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Google beat gold by a mile. Those are pretty safe stocks. It would be very difficult to find any investment portfolios without one of those stocks. Most will have all of them. Most tech ETFs (FSCSX, SOXX, BGSAX, you name them) also beat gold by all metrics. I just don't see any reason to invest in gold.

BTW, posting this while sitting in front of our RV watching this view. Been here since Friday morning. Will be heading back to San Diego tomorrow morning.

[Zan15]

Nothing wrong with investing in gold. The question right now is why? By any metrics, 3-month, 1-year, 5-year, etc., Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Google beat gold by a mile. Those are pretty safe stocks. It would be very difficult to find any investment portfolios without one of those stocks. Most will have all of them. Most tech ETFs (FSCSX, SOXX, BGSAX, you name them) also beat gold by all metrics. I just don't see any reason to invest in gold.

BTW, posting this while sitting in front of our RV watching this view. Been here since Friday morning. Will be heading back to San Diego tomorrow morning.

WT-Find money to build a home there!! PST!

..and afford to pipe in internet.... :P

[Rasulis]

WT-Find money to build a home there!! PST!

..and afford to pipe in internet.... :P

Yosemite, Upper Pines camp ground. We set up next to the Yosemite River.

Booked the spot back in early June. Although the entire camp ground was empty when we got here Friday morning. In a camp ground with 240 spots there were probably no more than 20 RVs yesterday. Less today. Only two camp grounds in Yosemite are open right now. Upper Pines, where we are, and Wawona. Social distancing is not a problem.

[PC2]

BTW, posting this while sitting in front of our RV watching this view. Been here since Friday morning. Will be heading back to San Diego tomorrow morning.

Nice Yosemite is pretty epic, there's a trail that goes up there BTW and you can cross the river and stand on the edge and look down. I went with a photographer friend one day and there also happened to be eagles flying around, he was having a field day.

[Breccia]

So let's talk about the Atlantic Coast Pipeline.

"Sounds familiar."

It should. In January they were denied a permit to, well, basically build straight through an African-American neighborhood. They also went to SCOTUS claiming that Trump said it was okay to build across the Appalachian Trail and SCOTUS said 7-2 that, yes, Trump was allowed to do that. That was June 15.

Now the principle dealmakers have just flat-out given up on the idea. They cited delays, costs, and "legal uncertainties".

The article goes on from there, but I think the real issue is the Trail crossing. Simply put, if Trump says it's okay to build or drill on things like federal parks, it'd be just as okay if Biden says they can't. West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina (the affected states) are also looking increasingly battleground. I think the energy companies decided that starting a formerly $5 billion now projected $8 billion project while Trump is sinking in the polls was just too risky.

The ACP was supposedly going to create thousands of jobs and create local revenue. Now, it won't. Can't blame "activist judges" on this one. This is just capitalism in action, and they seem to be tired of winning.

[Rasulis]

Nice Yosemite is pretty epic, there's a trail that goes up there BTW and you can cross the river and stand on the edge and look down. I went with a photographer friend one day and there also happened to be eagles flying around, he was having a field day.

Been going to Yosemite since 1981. Hiked the Muir Trail from Yosemite to Mt. Whitney in 1987 with two friends.

First time we have been in Yosemite in summer in at least a decade. We usually went in winter just before they closed the road. No crowd. This year was an exception due to the pandemic. Park was pretty empty. I saw probably three people on the hike to the falls.

Back in reality now <sigh>. Times like these I understand why Alex Honnold left UC Berkeley to live full time at Yosemite just so he can climb every day.





Like I said, "Good bye paradise, hello reality."



Interesting choice there. Apple. The company that is sitting on so much cash, it can pay off all of its obligations and still ended up with 83 billion dollars left over.

So why Apple? Why not. Apple has the second-highest investment-grade credit ratings from Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings, allowing it to issue $2.5 billion of 30-year bonds in May that yielded just 2.72%. Its $2 billion of three-year debt, within the Fed’s maturity range, priced to yield less than 0.85%.

Ouch! The pain kept coming for the oil industry.

U.S. Supreme Court ordered on Monday that construction of the long-delayed and once-resurrected Keystone XL project cannot begin.

That's the US Supreme Court. The court of last appeal.

That's defeat #3 for the oil industry following Dominion Energy and Duke Energy cancelation of the the Atlantic Coast natural gas pipeline project and on the day on which a court-ordered Dakota Access pipeline shut down.

[Breccia]

Axios goes into detail about the upcoming second wave.

"Wrong thread?"

Of job losses.

This week, United Airlines warned 36,000 U.S. employees their jobs were at risk, Walgreens cut more than 4,000 jobs, Wells Fargo announced it was preparing thousands of terminations this year, and Levi's axed 700 jobs due to falling sales.

We have entered round two of the jobs apocalypse. Those announcements followed similar ones from the Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott and Choice hotels, which all have announced thousands of job cuts, and the bankruptcies of more major U.S. companies like 24 Hour Fitness, Brooks Brothers and Chuck E. Cheese in recent days.

While round one was a swift reckoning that left 20.5 million Americans without a job after one month, part two will be a slow burn that sees millions more jobs lost as some businesses reduce headcounts and others shut down for good.

In the first half of 2020, more than 3,600 companies filed for bankruptcy, according to legal services provider Epiq. Just over 600 filed in June, up 43% from June 2019.

The initial jobs apocalypse was due to the mandated and temporary closures of businesses across the country in an attempt to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

Part two is the fallout from the decline in consumption that resulted and will likely include the wreckage from wide-ranging business closures and a reckoning for white collar jobs, experts say.

"What we’re seeing in the numbers so far is more an outcome of the cumulative negative effect of March, April and May than anything worsening with the pandemic in the last few weeks," Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, tells Axios.

"The numbers are probably going to get worse."

"The pickup in COVID is going to increase uncertainty and make people cut back on spending, but ... even without that pickup in the pandemic, the economic weakness will lead to layoffs and failures from businesses that are only being indirectly hurt" by the pandemic, says Edelberg, who was previously chief economist at the Congressional Budget Office.

Without further action, things like unemployment bonuses, stimulus checks and PPP are either going to run out, or have run out already. If people can't spend and businesses can't get help to stay open, this is a capitalistic system, and there's only one way that ends.

- - - Updated - - -

Coronavirus surge punctures oil's recovery

The growth of coronavirus cases is "casting a shadow" over oil's recovery despite the partial demand revival and supply cuts that have considerably tightened the market in recent months, the International Energy Agency said Friday.

Why it matters: IEA's monthly report confirms what analysts have seen coming for a long time: Failure to contain the virus is a huge threat to the market rebound that has seen prices grow, but remain at a perilous level for many companies.

With the caveat that things are fluid, IEA currently estimates that full-year oil demand this year will be 7.9 million barrels per day below 2019 levels.

That's a slightly smaller collapse than they previously projected, but that's not a statement about recovery going forward, but instead a reflection that the second-quarter decline was slightly less than expected.

The report also takes stock of the remarkable decline in global production that has tightened the market. Global supply in June was at its lowest level in nine years.

We may not see $50/barrel for a while.

[Edge-]

https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...china-unlikely

President Trump on Friday indicated a phase two trade deal with China is unlikely, saying the relationship between the two countries "has been severely damaged" by Beijing's handling of the coronavirus.

"I don’t think about it now," Trump told reporters on Air Force One of a potential second trade deal, saying he has "many other things in mind."

"They could have stopped the plague, they could have stopped it, they didn’t stop it. They stopped it from going into the remaining portions of China from Wuhan province. They could have stopped the plague, they didn’t," he added. "The relationship with China has been severely damaged."

Phase 2 of the trade deal with China seems pretty much 6 feet under at this point. Trump isn't even thinking about it, which isn't a surprise.

[Rasulis]

- - - Updated - - -[/COLOR]

Coronavirus surge punctures oil's recovery

We may not see $50/barrel for a while.

Don’t worry. China promised Trump they will buy $52.4b of US energy products in 2020/2021.

They only bought $2b so far.

It is only July 2020.

China is at full storage capacity. China refineries are cutting back production for lack of demand and storage.

How did that happen? China went on cheap oil binge buying from Asia, South America and the Middle East. Including Iran.

In fact, China just signed 25-year agreement with Iran.

Here is an Iranian propaganda piece - Trump Reaps the Whirlwind With China/Iran Mega Deal. There are some actual facts in the propaganda piece.

And now we know why. China and Iran just inked a 25-year, game-changing strategic deal covering everything from oil sales, contract bids and massive upgrades to Iran’s anti-air capabilities as well as its domestic air force.

One of the secret elements of the deal signed last year is that China will invest US$280 billion in developing Iran’s oil, gas, and petrochemicals sectors. This amount will be front-loaded into the first five-year period of the new 25-year deal, and the understanding is that further amounts will be available in each subsequent five year period, provided that both parties agree. There will be another US$120 billion of investment, which again can be front-loaded into the first five-year period, for upgrading Iran’s transport and manufacturing infrastructure, and again subject to increase in each subsequent period should both parties agree. In exchange for this, to begin with, Chinese companies will be given the first option to bid on any new – or stalled or uncompleted – oil, gas, and petrochemicals projects in Iran. China will also be able to buy any and all oil, gas, and petchems products at a minimum guaranteed discount of 12 per cent to the six-month rolling mean average price of comparable benchmark products, plus another 6 to 8 per cent of that metric for risk-adjusted compensation. Additionally, China will be granted the right to delay payment for up to two years and, significantly, it will be able to pay in soft currencies that it has accrued from doing business in Africa and the Former Soviet Union states.

This is where Trump's stupid America First policy has gotten us.

After slowing down to a single rig loss the prior week, US drill rig count went down by 5 this week.

[Omega10]

Don’t worry. China promised Trump they will buy $52.4b of US energy products in 2020/2021.

They only bought $2b so far.

It is only July 2020.

China is at full storage capacity. China refineries are cutting back production for lack of demand and storage.

How did that happen? China went on cheap oil binge buying from Asia, South America and the Middle East. Including Iran.

In fact, China just signed 25-year agreement with Iran.

Here is an Iranian propaganda piece - Trump Reaps the Whirlwind With China/Iran Mega Deal. There are some actual facts in the propaganda piece.



This is where Trump's stupid America First policy has gotten us.

The only thing I find surprising about it is that it took so long for Iran and China to basically merge into one. The pressure we put on Iran put them in a weaker bargaining position with regards to China, so many of the provisions are quite pro-China.

We have found a way to help unite China, Russia, and Iran into a unified block of allies. It's just the way things will be moving forward.

After the virus finishes with us - it if ever does - I guess the best we can do is to look to Germany and France for guidance. We spent the last decade or so winning battle after battle in South America, replacing neutral governments with very pro US governments, and now Latin America is a MESS. The message to the world is don't work with the US - Latin America did and look what happened to THEM.

Biden and his team will have their work cut out for them figuring out just how to stop the bottom from dropping out of our influence and prestige. If Trump wins, it won't matter we are going down. The world is already making preparations for this possibility, which in itself reduces our influence and prestige. We need to fix ourselves before trying to fix others.

- - - Updated - - -

https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...china-unlikely



Phase 2 of the trade deal with China seems pretty much 6 feet under at this point. Trump isn't even thinking about it, which isn't a surprise.

I think the next phase of our dealings with China is not how to increase trade with them, but how to decouple our economy from theirs. I believe that they are already starting the process on their side. We have a lot of work to do.

Decoupling will take 5-10 years, and will cause a lot of dislocations and such especially at first. But hatred between China and the US is intense and real, it's not going away, and the best we can do is to not deal with each other.

Many people have come out quite strongly in favor of dividing the world up into two groups of countries. One side trades and deals with China, and the other side trades and deals with the west. I think that this is inevitable, and I think that the best we can do is to make the business changes needed to start making this a reality.

[Rasulis]

It just happened.

Fed adds Apple, Anheuser-Busch, Expedia to its bond holdings

They bought Expedia and Ford which are basically junk bond right now, but they skipped Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook? I think Facebook bond is rated higher than Apple.

Warren Buffett's $90 billion Apple stake is now 43% of Berkshire Hathaway's entire stock portfolio

Nuff said.

For some fun reading.

‘It’s like trying to beat the casino’ — Rookie trader turns $15,000 into $1 million, then loses almost everything

"They make it so easy for people that don’t know anything about stocks. Then you go there and you start to lose money." —
That’s Richard Dobatse, talking with the New York Times about his painful experience trading stocks — and ultimately losing a fortune — on the Robinhood app.

Dobatse explained in the interview that he’d been drawn into the app’s bells and whistles, which made flipping stocks and dabbling in more complex investments feel like a game.

He started out by funding his account with $15,000 in credit card advances and then took out another two $30,000 home-equity loans as he continued to lose money early. His luck changed this year, and his account value skyrocketed about $1 million in a matter of months.

Then it all fell apart — his account value this week: $6,956.

[Zan15]

It just happened.

Fed adds Apple, Anheuser-Busch, Expedia to its bond holdings

They bought Expedia and Ford which are basically junk bond right now, but they skipped Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook? I think Facebook bond is rated higher than Apple.

Warren Buffett's $90 billion Apple stake is now 43% of Berkshire Hathaway's entire stock portfolio

Nuff said.

For some fun reading.

‘It’s like trying to beat the casino’ — Rookie trader turns $15,000 into $1 million, then loses almost everything

Well the program took a pre covid snapshot of their bond ratings and that is what they are going off of to loan money.

But its ridiculous they are even involved in apple bonds.



There are a lot of "robin hooder" stories and the vast majority of them are exactly like that one.


As for Warren, he's only that high because he sold all his losers and is scared to enter the market at these levels.