Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Rasulis]

CI-CIGNA


Damn orange fire in the sky, why the hell would i go outside and risk death from the burning sky.

Basically deadlocked senate, biden president = $$$ for insurance and no public option

It is actually interesting to see which sectors benefited the most from the Nov 3 election results. Health care because drug companies and health insurers have less to fear. Communication has Alphabet and FaceBook, IT has Microsoft and Apple, and Consumer Discretionary has Amazon. The likelihood of a divided central government enacting anti-trust measures against these companies is pretty much zero for the next two to four years. They got to keep Trump's tax break for the next several years also. The rest of the sectors just plain suck.



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BTW, Trump presidency has been very good for blue states economy and business development. In 2020, blue states (plus Washington, D.C.) pulled in $70.1 billion in venture capital funding. Red states, meanwhile, drew just $5.68 billion. If we look closer, however, the Democrat-leaning advantage is even more pronounced. That’s because among Republican-leaning states that do receive venture capital, the vast majority goes to Democrat-leaning metropolitan areas.

Take Texas. Voters there have consistently favored Republican presidential candidates for four decades. But Austin, the metro area that commonly brings in a majority of the state’s venture funding, is known for its liberal-leaning politics. North Carolina, a bit of a swing state that tilted Red in 2020, shows a similar pattern. The hub for startup and venture capital activity is the Research Triangle region, which leans left. Utah is more mixed. Provo and Utah counties, both rich in funded startups and tech talent, are both right-leaning. The Salt Lake City metro area, meanwhile, leans slightly left.

You can also look at the S&P 500 company list. In the top 10, there is only one in red state - Walmart. In the top 30, two. Add Exxon. The divide has never been this stark.

[Breccia]

And the DOW is predicted to do...basically nothing.

Looks like they already factored in "Biden wins" in the strong week we just had.

[Felya]

While people watch what happens on wallstreet... who to credit... who to blame... Just enjoy the hopium... savor the moment... then take down the corporate overlords...

[Omega10]

While people watch what happens on wallstreet... who to credit... who to blame... Just enjoy the hopium... savor the moment... then take down the corporate overlords...

We are far away from being able to even chip away at their power.

The election result was about as pro-corporate power as is possible. And with 70 million people voting to put full power in global corporations, and with McConnell winning his election by such a huge margin, I don't see much chance of this changing for quite a while.

So it's lie low for now, since doing anything else now will mostly backfire, try to prepare a bit for the future, and hope that events make things a little better at a later date.

[Breccia]

There is no bloody vaccine for the next 6 months.
What you have are trials and even if a vaccine looks "100% promising" that won't be just announced for this year.

Yes, but, the stock market is a predictive force.

Also, funny story, what if the reason this year doesn't fit the thread's title, is because Biden was elected?

[Zan15]

And the DOW is predicted to do...basically nothing.

Looks like they already factored in "Biden wins" in the strong week we just had.

good thing you don't work as a analyst

i know vaccine...i kid i kid....

[Omega10]

good thing you don't work as a analyst

i know vaccine...i kid i kid....

I'm with Breccia. I make predictions about the market and it does something that is as close to opposite from what I predict as possible.

[Zan15]

I'm with Breccia. I make predictions about the market and it does something that is as close to opposite from what I predict as possible.

Please I give my brother and his friends stocks to invest in all the time and he performs about 98% better than the stocks I invest in for myself.

its like i am a witch and the power of 3 says i can't benefit myself from my powers or bad things will happen!!!

Though my bank stocks finally rocketed

[Breccia]

Has Trump tweeted yet? I'd love to see him try to claim this was his doing.

[Felya]

Has Trump tweeted yet? I'd love to see him try to claim this was his doing.

No, retweeted the vaccine news, then been spamming Fox News and conspiracy theories.

[enslockhart]

Good analysis. With the potential for a vaccine by DEC, we will see this impact the market more than who is president, IMO.

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No, retweeted the vaccine news, then been spamming Fox News and conspiracy theories.

It looks like Tucker Carlson is bailing on Trump.

[Zan15]

Looks like the rotation out of tech stocks might be starting.
Some beaten down sectors doing really well.

A lot of people are making huge bet on these stocks down 40-60%+.
They are long term bets since we know the winter is going to be really bad, but its a good play if you got the time.

[Rasulis]

Looks like the rotation out of tech stocks might be starting.
Some beaten down sectors doing really well.

A lot of people are making huge bet on these stocks down 40-60%+.
They are long term bets since we know the winter is going to be really bad, but its a good play if you got the time.

Tech already rebounded. Pretty much all tech stocks went up today.

Yep. Every single US airline stocks went down. Cruise stocks down. Hotel, gaming and resort stocks down. Boeing and every other defense contractor stocks down. Oil and gas stocks down.

Long live our tech overlords.

Pfizer is down also. Lulz.

[Zan15]

Tech already rebounded. Pretty much all tech stocks went up today.

Yep. Every single US airline stocks went down. Cruise stocks down. Hotel, gaming and resort stocks down. Boeing and every other defense contractor stocks down. Oil and gas stocks down.

Long live our tech overlords.

Pfizer is down also. Lulz.

Most of them are still up more than tech in the last 5 days. Gas/oil, banks, financials, consumer staples, etc.

[Rasulis]

Most of them are still up more than tech in the last 5 days. Gas/oil, banks, financials, consumer staples, etc.

I think once the euphoria ended, and people realize that the vaccine requires two doses and the challenge of mass distribution of a vaccine that will require constant -80C during transport, reality will come crashing down.

[Zan15]

I think once the euphoria ended, and people realize that the vaccine requires two doses and the challenge of mass distribution of a vaccine that will require constant -80C during transport, reality will come crashing down.

ya but it will still get done, the impending rebound of those stocks would realistically just be slower but inevitable.

[Omega10]

Here, to me, is why China will defeat the US in our global economic war.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/g-20-...123407405.html

Title: G-20 Looks to Deepen Debt Relief Drive With China’s Coordination

Premise of the article: poor and developing countries that have been battered by the virus need debt relief.

Policy makers from the world’s largest economies are set to meet Friday to iron out the details of a plan for debt relief to the poorest countries battered by the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, the article makes it quite clear that western countries are in no position to help.

Beijing says that global multilateral banks and commercial creditors have failed to provide relief to the poor despite holding much of their debt. However, it’s unclear if private investors would be able to grant leniency due to their fiduciary duties to clients, given that the fine print in many debt agreements prohibits changes in the terms without the approval of the majority of bondholders.

Oops western investors can't help. There is a big problem that needs to be solved, but there is just nothing that western countries can do due to our fiduciary duties. But if China would help, that would be AWESOME!!!

Note: This is similar to "America CAN NOT reduce its oil output since so many different companies are involved." Saudi Arabia and Russia thus took matters into their own hands and set the price of oil suitable to them. Not so suitable for the US fossil fuel industry.

“Anything that moves us in the direction of China accepting Paris-Club-style principles, I think that would be a good thing,” said Mark Sobel, a former U.S. Treasury official now at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. “I expect the common framework to be incremental and not revolutionary.”

Well yeah. Anything that gets China to bow down to western interests is a good thing from a western standpoint.

Russia and Saudi Arabia showed the way for China to go down. This goes in the duhh category.

China will forgive debt with deals that give them benefits, rather than forgiving debts with deals that give western countries benefits. I guess that western countries are trying to pressure China into stabbing themselves in the back?

Between controlling oil prices, the virus, and now helping developing countries deal with crushing debt, America's position seems to be the same: there is nothing we can do. Not a very good look.

[Zan15]

Based on the 7 day moving average of Covid cases and deaths i am so tempted to bail at this point and buy in on the next mini crash.

its really not looking good right now.

take the profit and run and wait on sidelines?

[Rasulis]

I’ll reiterate again, this is a very lopsided recession. CA lost 3M jobs back in March and was still down 1.6M jobs in September (Fig. 1). Less Educated Workers Account for Nearly All Job Losses. Almost all job losses have been among workers with less than a Bachelor’s degree. Specifically, while workers with no high school degree, a high school degree, or some college (including associate’s degree holders) make up a total of 60 percent of the workforce, these workers account for 97 percent of net job losses since February (Fig. 2).

The disparity is reflected in CA revenue which is based on income tax, corporate tax and sales tax. CA income tax withholding is up 3.5% from last year (Fig. 3) and is outpacing the US income tax withholding by large margin (Fig. 4). September revenue collections (Fig.5) from the state’s three largest taxes—the personal income tax, corporation tax, and sales tax—were ahead of budget projections by $4 billion (42 percent). Relative strength in income tax withholding and sales tax is consistent with trends in recent months. The personal income tax estimated payments reflects, in part, the fact that stock prices have now eclipsed pre-pandemic levels (capital gain tax). The corporation tax estimated payments suggests that corporations have revised upwards their expectations for profitability this year.

The extent of new business creation in California can be an important gauge of the health of the state’s economy. Past research suggests that new businesses account for a sizeable portion of job creation and also are more sensitive to swings in economic conditions than older businesses.

Fig. 6 shows weekly data on business creation in California from the U.S. Census. After crashing in the spring, new business creation has been very strong since July. In October, the number of new businesses was almost 30 percent above October 2019.

Venture capital funding is also another indicator of the strength of the state’s economy. Fig. 7 shows that the state is on tract to match 2019 which was a good year for venture capital funding in California.

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Fig. 7


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Based on the 7 day moving average of Covid cases and deaths i am so tempted to bail at this point and buy in on the next mini crash.

its really not looking good right now.

take the profit and run and wait on sidelines?

Are you going to sign a waiver of liability? All kidding aside. Depends on your holdings. I am just sitting tight. But you know my investment preference from my previous posts. I am more into stable growth stocks and ETFs. Not much into value stocks.

[Zan15]

Are you going to sign a waiver of liability? All kidding aside. Depends on your holdings. I am just sitting tight. But you know my investment preference from my previous posts. I am more into stable growth stocks and ETFs. Not much into value stocks.

i am sitting on a nice loss this year that i can use on my tax returns, i would hate to take the profit and offset that...