Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Zan15]

welp at least we made back what we lost yesterday.

Worst part about working nights is I miss the first few hours of tradings fireworks

[Breccia]

welp at least we made back what we lost yesterday.

Indeed. Breaking even should be considered a welcome relief at this point.

Incidentally, at time of writing, we're a handful of points over 26,616 as in "the peak in Jan 2018". Even after today's loss, we're down two years and two months of what was supposed to be growth.

[Zan15]

Indeed. Breaking even should be considered a welcome relief at this point.

Incidentally, at time of writing, we're a handful of points over 26,616 as in "the peak in Jan 2018". Even after today's loss, we're down two years and two months of what was supposed to be growth.

its just scary that at almost full employment that we are so low on interest rates.
Even worse is how these low interest rates don't effect the vast majority of people with mortgages, credit card debt and car loans.

Hell credit cards just raise their base interest so that rates stay the same even though their cost went down.


If they really wanted to prop up the economy short term the payroll tax break was the way. They could have done it for the first X of income so that the response can help those who need the most help.

Even though they would hurt Medicare and SS, its a drop in the bucket of their problems.

[Breccia]

its just scary that at almost full employment that we are so low on interest rates.

Indeed. "Full employment" also doesn't mean "full employment with good pay". Slow wage growth is a key sign of how far the U.S. economy remains from a full recovery. And while the US has seen some wage growth, it pales in comparison to inflation keeping actual purchase power low (i.e. "constant dollars"), and worse, it's skewed towards the high end of wages, mostly because the minimum wage hasn't moved at all.

But that's in the past. You'd think that, with low wage growth and near full employment, employers would have to raise wages significantly to get new people. As we've seen, the tax cut for the rich -- free money with which to do that -- did not do that.

At best, you could cite evidence like this which says that wages are low because benefits have increased. Which is valid. Until Trump removes or weakens the ACA, lowering the effective salary increase when plans are lessened or removed, and that's what he's in court trying to do right now, ending that discussion.

[Lenonis]

I'm seeing some speculation that part of the market rise today is the resurgence of Biden's campaign. How much of that do you feel is valid?

To me -- it makes some sense but not market-moving-and-shaking sense. A Warren or Sanders administration would likely not be terribly business friendly in the wall street sense. A Biden administration would be moreso...so I can see speculative investors seeing the possibility of a Sanders or Warren administration vanishing to a small possibility and thus feeling better about long term profitability of those stocks.

[Breccia]

I'm seeing some speculation that part of the market rise today is the resurgence of Biden's campaign. How much of that do you feel is valid?

Honestly, considering the fears of weak job growth and the coronavirus not going anywhere, it's got to be at least partly true. Also there were some big gains by a few medical companies.

[Zan15]

I'm seeing some speculation that part of the market rise today is the resurgence of Biden's campaign. How much of that do you feel is valid?

To me -- it makes some sense but not market-moving-and-shaking sense. A Warren or Sanders administration would likely not be terribly business friendly in the wall street sense. A Biden administration would be moreso...so I can see speculative investors seeing the possibility of a Sanders or Warren administration vanishing to a small possibility and thus feeling better about long term profitability of those stocks.

silly since without the senate which no one is predicting a swing, none of his "best" plans would go anywhere.

I think most of today is like the last bump, profit makers.....it has yet to hold any of these spikes till then there is no fundamental change related to the election.

- - - Updated - - -

Indeed. "Full employment" also doesn't mean "full employment with good pay". Slow wage growth is a key sign of how far the U.S. economy remains from a full recovery. And while the US has seen some wage growth, it pales in comparison to inflation keeping actual purchase power low (i.e. "constant dollars"), and worse, it's skewed towards the high end of wages, mostly because the minimum wage hasn't moved at all.

But that's in the past. You'd think that, with low wage growth and near full employment, employers would have to raise wages significantly to get new people. As we've seen, the tax cut for the rich -- free money with which to do that -- did not do that.

At best, you could cite evidence like this which says that wages are low because benefits have increased. Which is valid. Until Trump removes or weakens the ACA, lowering the effective salary increase when plans are lessened or removed, and that's what he's in court trying to do right now, ending that discussion.

Very true but low interest rates are not going to give better pay. it will help on the inflation front a little, but that was already low to begin with.
interest cuts like tax cuts 2018, will mostly help corporations and the 1%.

[Rasulis]

its just scary that at almost full employment that we are so low on interest rates.
Even worse is how these low interest rates don't effect the vast majority of people with mortgages, credit card debt and car loans.

Hell credit cards just raise their base interest so that rates stay the same even though their cost went down.


If they really wanted to prop up the economy short term the payroll tax break was the way. They could have done it for the first X of income so that the response can help those who need the most help.

Even though they would hurt Medicare and SS, its a drop in the bucket of their problems.

Mortgage is going down. It may go down lower than the 2012 record low mortgage. However, home prices are going up because of the increased demand. It is screwy right now. After calming down for a bit, in San Diego we are back to multiple offers situation again. Median home price in San Diego jumped up from 590k in Dec 2019 to 647k. December used to be slow time for my wife (she is a RE broker) when we usually go on vacation. Not anymore.

[Zan15]

Mortgage is going down. It may go down lower than the 2012 record low mortgage. However, home prices are going up because of the increased demand. It is screwy right now. After calming down for a bit, in San Diego we are back to multiple offers situation again. Median home price in San Diego jumped up from 590k in Dec 2019 to 647k. December used to be slow time for my wife (she is a RE broker) when we usually go on vacation. Not anymore.

if you have an adjustable rate you might save a little, but most people have fixed rates and can't refinance or won't. that and the fees will eat most of the savings.

[Vago]

Mortgage is going down. It may go down lower than the 2012 record low mortgage. However, home prices are going up because of the increased demand. It is screwy right now. After calming down for a bit, in San Diego we are back to multiple offers situation again. Median home price in San Diego jumped up from 590k in Dec 2019 to 647k. December used to be slow time for my wife (she is a RE broker) when we usually go on vacation. Not anymore.

I'm seeing that right now myself, in the process of getting our home ready to put on the market and every time we talk to the realtor they are bumping our suggested asking price up by 5 grand...I'm not kidding it has jumped up almost 50 grand and I haven't owned my current home for 2 years yet. To add, I'm not even in a market like CA.

[Zan15]

How long till they ask the cruise line industry to suspend trips...offering a bail out package to do so...?
Would not be out of line with suspending things like they did in other countries and other industries

[Yadryonych]

How long till they ask the cruise line industry to suspend trips...offering a bail out package to do so...?

They probably won't do this, cash must flow

[Zan15]

Can't keep up...

Up 1100 for the day...pre markets down 400....700...500....600....450..

https://markets.businessinsider.com/premarket

-609.96 -2.25% 06:33:58 AM
-237.97 -2.66% 06:33:59 AM
-80.20 -2.56%

Scary that even a surprise half point cuts that banks are still moving down.

[Draco-Onis]

Can't keep up...

Up 1100 for the day...pre markets down 400....700...500....600....450..

https://markets.businessinsider.com/premarket

-609.96 -2.25% 06:33:58 AM
-237.97 -2.66% 06:33:59 AM
-80.20 -2.56%

Scary that even a surprise half point cuts that banks are still moving down.

I think it's obvious that rate cuts aren't going to do anything against this especially since we are already at low interest rates. This is a problem for governments to solve would be nice if the leader of the free world wasn't a moron otherwise he would take charge of the global response.

[Breccia]

Can't keep up

Already lost about 700.

[Thepersona]

Already lost about 700.

What the fuck is this?
The markets are more moody than my ex!

[Breccia]

It's been a rough few weeks.

After the massive, record-breaking drop, each upwards bounce has been neutered by a large reduction the following day. As a reminder, 26,616 was Jan 2018's peak. We're below that now. And still in "correction" territory.

- - - Updated - - -

Apparently, the bad news mounts for Boeing and contributed to the fall. Which is "only" 500 now.

Besides the issues with air travel in general, the 737 fallout continues. They're lagging in recertification, for example.

- - - Updated - - -

Well, that was a good office hours session with some students that needed the help. Feeling pretty good about myself. Time for a cup of Tim Horton's and a --



PFFFFFFFFFFFFT

What the hell happened in the last 2 hours?

[Omega10]

It's been a rough few weeks.

After the massive, record-breaking drop, each upwards bounce has been neutered by a large reduction the following day. As a reminder, 26,616 was Jan 2018's peak. We're below that now. And still in "correction" territory.

- - - Updated - - -

Apparently, the bad news mounts for Boeing and contributed to the fall. Which is "only" 500 now.

Besides the issues with air travel in general, the 737 fallout continues. They're lagging in recertification, for example.

- - - Updated - - -

Well, that was a good office hours session with some students that needed the help. Feeling pretty good about myself. Time for a cup of Tim Horton's and a --



PFFFFFFFFFFFFT

What the hell happened in the last 2 hours?

Boeing: 52 week range - 263 - 434
Current: 265

Boeing has lost close to half it's stock value over the last year.
Today's drop sponsored by Boeing, which is down over 6% today at this time.

[Masark]

What the hell happened in the last 2 hours?

Presumably, people got into the office, had their coffee, then pulled up the news and found out what The Idiot was saying last night, which caused them to run onto the trading floor screaming "SELL! SELL! SELL!".

[Omega10]

Presumably, people got into the office, had their coffee, then pulled up the news and found out what The Idiot was saying last night, which caused them to run onto the trading floor screaming "SELL! SELL! SELL!".

Here is the actual headline:

As CDC Says 'Do Not Go to Work,' Trump Says Thousands With Coronavirus Could Go to Work and Get Better

From the tone of the article, it sounds like he really did say that, and meant it.



Technically, he is correct, and somewhere around 80% of people really would just get better.