Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Fahrenheit]

I suspect it'll rebound slightly before the close, that's been seemingly how all these crazy sell off days have gone the past two weeks.
Dow down 1920 at the time of this.

[Zan15]

You are not. At time of my writing, -7.32% and therefore on the list. You posted when it was even worse.

yup and it hit 8.1% at low about half an hour ago
yikes

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Maybe I'm reading "repo" wrong, but, if the Fed wants to fix anything they'll need money to do it. Calling in outstanding loans is one way to do that.

It might be hitting some people while they're down, like you suggested. But the Fed doesn't care about feelings.

nah repo is not a problem they are such short term actions that get repaid so fast that its just a liquidity thing the fed has done for decades.

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Dow plunges as much as 2,000 points, oil crashes as price war erupts and coronavirus spreads
-- FOX News headline right now

Hey, didn't Trump say the Fake News media was working with the Democrats to make this worse? By which I mean this exact quote:



Well, then, I guess it would be really inflammatory for me to further quote FOX News, which I will now do:



"Hey Breccia, sorry to interrupt, but, how many times has Trump had 'the biggest drop since 2008'?"

I'm glad you asked, voice in my head.

The biggest DOW loss pre-Trump was 8/29/2008, at -777. It is now the 11th worst of all time. Trump owns the top ten.

"Ah. So, ten."

Well, timing screws with that. Trump also had the drop in 2/5/2018, which was -1171. This means Trump was defended from "worst drop since 2008" because of his own earlier worse drop.

That said, he broke that number 2/27/2020. In an eerie coincidence, that's when this thread got necro'd:



That day was an 1190 drop. Today is probably going to be worse than that. Stranger things have happened, I suppose, than the DOW self-correcting 800 points mid-fall.

So when people say it today, for Trump at least, it'll be the third time they can say that. Barring a miracle, he will own the top 11 spots.

And, as I and Zanzibar Quince said, he's about to have his first entry on the worst proportional drops. Considering the placeholders are, like I said, oftentimes 1929 and 2008, this is a very significant change.

He now also owns one of the worst oil drops, and the biggest since 1991...no not 2009... 1 9 9 1
you know when we started a war....

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just a reminder

live charts


https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones

[Shalcker]

if the low oil prices spread into the rest of the economy they will have bigger economic problems to cover. employment, lower tax revenue outside of oil, pensions, etc etc.

We already had 120$ to 30$ drop. Those problems aren't insurmountable. They already worked with them and have solutions ready. Painful solutions, sure, but doable.

Russia is already running bare min and really have nothing more to cut. Even their military spending fell out of the top 5 world wide.

Have you actually checked numbers?

Our finance ministry even has plans for 10$ oil up to decade. There are plenty of levers to keep going.

On top of that the more they push low oil the bigger impact on world economy. this means less oil being used. means even less money going to Russia and SA. it will compound on itself month to month.

Generally timeline goes lower oil -> more use of cheap oil -> recovery -> oil back up again.

Obviously on timeline of years, not "months". Noone is going to run oil price war for mere months.

Both countries would last maybe 9-12 months before the pain became something that would drive them to the table.

We'll see.

[Breccia]

Up above 24,000

Back into 23,000's

Back above 24,000

Oh, man, the DOW's going to walk home funny after this one.

[Zan15]

We already had 120$ to 30$ drop. Those problems aren't insurmountable. They already worked with them and have solutions ready. Painful solutions, sure, but doable.

Have you actually checked numbers?

Our finance ministry even has plans for 10$ oil up to decade. There are plenty of levers to keep going.

Generally timeline goes lower oil -> more use of cheap oil -> recovery -> oil back up again.

Obviously on timeline of years, not "months". Noone is going to run oil price war for mere months.

We'll see.

I wonder if they planned on their reserves getting .4% interest rates instead of the decade average of 4-10%.

I looked at the reserves, the budget, the kinda surplus/deficits of both countries, gdp, tax revenue and sources.

I just don't see them being able to handle a multi year battle. it would not even be the impact of the low oil price and drop in oil revenue that would cause the most pain.

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Up above 24,000

Back into 23,000's

Back above 24,000

Oh, man, the DOW's going to walk home funny after this one.

especially since its a FIST...that is doing the damage...not a....well you know....

question is will it go elbow deep or shoulder deep.

[Breccia]

I suspect it'll rebound slightly before the close

Or tomorrow. But the trend so far has been "massive loss, we get some back". Trump probably doesn't care about the top 20 percent losses, but he is meeting with Wall Street traders, almost certainly to discuss how to stop these numbers from going down. It's possible that a group of powerful traders could spend a bunch of their money to artificially inflate the numbers, hoping that leads the charge back in. But that's a mighty big risk. And I don't know if they owe Trump enough to do it.

[Zan15]

Or tomorrow. But the trend so far has been "massive loss, we get some back". Trump probably doesn't care about the top 20 percent losses, but he is meeting with Wall Street traders, almost certainly to discuss how to stop these numbers from going down. It's possible that a group of powerful traders could spend a bunch of their money to artificially inflate the numbers, hoping that leads the charge back in. But that's a mighty big risk. And I don't know if they owe Trump enough to do it.

Also nothing stops them from "knowing" when the money will go in...and when everyone plans to bail out....all before the public can react so all the easy money will be made by those few people screwing over the general public/traders

[Omega10]

Or tomorrow. But the trend so far has been "massive loss, we get some back". Trump probably doesn't care about the top 20 percent losses, but he is meeting with Wall Street traders, almost certainly to discuss how to stop these numbers from going down. It's possible that a group of powerful traders could spend a bunch of their money to artificially inflate the numbers, hoping that leads the charge back in. But that's a mighty big risk. And I don't know if they owe Trump enough to do it.

Well it is also in their own best interest to stop the bleeding. The question is will they try to stop it now, or will they wait until the bleeding is a bit less severe so that they have higher odds, or even a guarantee, of success.

I was surprised they did not try something last night or early this morning. My best guess is that it will stay relatively stable for the remainder of the day, with a rally planned starting at the first bell tomorrow morning. This gives people time to prepare and line up their purchases.

[Breccia]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 2,150 points, or 8.2 percent, at session lows while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were lower by 7.9 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively. The Dow and S&P 500 were on track for their biggest drops since December 2008.

Thanks, FOX News.

[Zan15]

Don't worry lower gas prices is "good for the consumer"....according to trump

we get to save a few bucks a week...meanwhile lose thousands in savings, interest and investments.

Whoot Whoot.

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Thanks, FOX News.

TRUMP IS RIGHT

damn lying media and their fake news and fear mongering...wait...is that fox.....never mind....

[Omega10]

Also nothing stops them from "knowing" when the money will go in...and when everyone plans to bail out....all before the public can react so all the easy money will be made by those few people screwing over the general public/traders

Oh yeah. The plan I mapped out would also maximize the amount of money being transferred from the public to the execs.

[Breccia]

I was surprised they did not try something last night or early this morning.

They did. They tried a mass selloff. The rules wouldn't let them.

It's true, Wall Street traders can look long or short term. Trump is looking for a short-term change, he needs a break in the inertia and something other than "record-breaking drop" splashed across the headlines. Wall Street has to decide if that's in their best interest rates.

[Zaydin]

I swear, if I were watching the stock market closer I'd be getting whiplash by now with how it keeps jerking up and down.

[Zan15]

LAst 15 fun here we go boys!!

24,174.20 -1,690.58 (-6.54%) 03:48:22 PM EDT MI Indication*

24,122.10 -1,742.68 (-6.74%) 03:51:51 PM EDT MI Indication*

24,086.10 -1,778.68 (-6.88%) 03:55:51 PM EDT MI Indication*

hmmm very muted last 10 so far



Hoping for the same kind of panic in home heating oil. its already down 40% this year from my first purchase. need to fill a tank.

[Shalcker]

I wonder if they planned on their reserves getting .4% interest rates instead of the decade average of 4-10%.

Err, are you talking about Russian international reserves?

http://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collect...-04_res_en.pdf

They seem to be getting much better returns then .4%.

Don't think they ever had averages of 4-10% unless you're talking about rouble interest rates.

I looked at the reserves, the budget, the kinda surplus/deficits of both countries, gdp, tax revenue and sources.

I just don't see them being able to handle a multi year battle. it would not even be the impact of the low oil price and drop in oil revenue that would cause the most pain.

What factors do you think would appear now that wouldn't already play out in 2014-2015 oil price drop + international lending restrictions?

[Hobb]

With the Dow now at 24,000 points we're right back to 2017 when Trump's economic polices replaced Obama's.

Well Trump did say he wanted to roll the clock back....so Winning?

[kaelleria]

Oof... These last 5 mins are looking to be brutal.

[jeezusisacasual]

Its that wonderful time in which i do my ass kissing tour with some of our wealthier clients today has been as bad as it could have been which i doubt we will see more close to 7% drops across the board but with regards to Russian oil, i dont blame them for taking the avenue simply due to how the world has forced this upon them. My last trip to St Petersburg proved to me they are a prideful people that are willing to sacrifice so if they can stomach more pain all the power to them.

[Zan15]

Err, are you talking about Russian international reserves?

http://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collect...-04_res_en.pdf

They seem to be getting much better returns then .4%.

Don't think they ever had averages of 4-10% unless you're talking about rouble interest rates.

What factors do you think would appear now that wouldn't already play out in 2014-2015 oil price drop + international lending restrictions?

I don't see anywhere in that report what they are getting for what they have on hand or performance for the period. its also over a year old.

.4% would be going forward not on what they currently have.

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LAst 15 fun here we go boys!!

24,174.20 -1,690.58 (-6.54%) 03:48:22 PM EDT MI Indication*

24,122.10 -1,742.68 (-6.74%) 03:51:51 PM EDT MI Indication*

24,086.10 -1,778.68 (-6.88%) 03:55:51 PM EDT MI Indication*

hmmm very muted last 10 so far

.

woops spoke exactly 1 minute too soon


23,927.60 -1,937.18 (-7.49%) 03:59:05 PM EDT MI Indication*

[kaelleria]

I believe we're officially in a Bear market now.

Ah nope... But we're super close-

Dow Bear - 23,641.1, Now - 23,849.20 -2,015.58 7.79%
S&P Bear - 2,708.92, Now - 2,746.15 -226.22 7.61%