Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Draco-Onis]

FOX News' new headline.



We've gone from "meltdown" to "nightmare"

Honestly I am just shocked they aren't blaming it on democrats but as Trump would say.

"This is the biggest crash in US history prices are going down like people have never seen before we dropped bigly"

[Zan15]

They only had 24.3% of US Treasuries in March 2019 and i think it dropped even lower since that.

They aren't there primarily to provide "return on investment" (though it certainly helps when they can), they are there to cover any major liabilities/interventions they might need to maintain relative financial stability.

CBR used reserves in 2014-2015 and then from 2016 it only grew year by year, so i'm not sure what you're talking about really.

Perhaps Sovereign/National Wealth Fund rather then reserves? But that doesn't seem to match either.

https://sputniknews.com/business/201...ional-weafare/

Russia will exhaust its Reserve Fund in 2017 and will start using money from the National Welfare Fund, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Thursday.
"In line with the budget, the Reserve Fund will be depleted. We will start using the resources of the National Welfare Fund, which is stipulated in the budget," Siluanov told reporters.
He said the Reserve Fund would be restored in 2018.


I am a novice as it relates to Russia economy and finances, so you might be way more right than me. I appreciate you helping me understand what position they are in and what they appear to be able to handle vs the Saudi's who have a lot more information out there I've read.

[Breccia]

Honestly I am just shocked they aren't blaming it on democrats

Even FOX News can only spin so far. They've chosen the route of "but China has it worse!"

The stock market is a predictive force. Some people already tried "But Sanders was going to win, hence the drop!" earlier. They may even have been partially correct, as I personally cited. That ship has sailed, returned to port, and now is letting sick people off in @Edge- 's backyard.

So CNBC has a list of what the fucks for us.

Biggest Dow points decline ever

Yeah we got that.

Treasury yields hit new lows

The 10-year Treasury yield hit an all-time low in overnight trading, falling to 0.318% briefly before rebounding back above 0.5%. The key yield fell below 1.0% for the first time less than a week ago.

The 30-year Treasury yield also hit a record low, falling as low as 0.702% before finishing at 1.03%.

Oil’s dramatic fall

Oil saw its second-largest price drop on record, with West Texas International price falling by 24.59% to settle at $31.13 per barrel. The only worse day since the WTI began trading on the NYMEX in 1983 was during the Gulf War in 1991. International benchmark Brent crude also fell by more than 24%.

As a result, the S&P 500 Energy Sector fell 20% to post its worst day on record, going back to 1989.

Bid-ask spreads widen in bond market

"What?"

In addition to the statistics, there was anecdotal evidence of unusual activity, even for market veterans.

JPMorgan’s Bob Michele told CNBC’s Steve Liesman on “Power Lunch” that there were serious issues making deals in the bond market on Monday, with large spreads between the prices offered by buyers and sellers. He said one of his co-workers told him that at one point their were no offers on a 30-year bond.

“I’ve been doing this 40 years. I’ve never seen that before,” Michele said.

The bid-ask gap is between the lowest price someone is willing to sell for, and the highest price anyone is offering to buy with. If one side or the other is a wuss, they'll let their price wander towards the other. Both tend to meet in the middle with easy to move liquid-style assets. A sizable, immobile gap means someone has an item they're looking to dump, but spent a lot of money on and aren't willing to lose everything yet, but the buyers see the damaged goods and aren't ready to move yet. Nothing moves, and the owner is left with damaged goods. The gap widens further in times of high market action -- such as, oh I don't know, today.

In the meanwhile, I guess we wait for the market and interest rates to plunge further, having no effect on our credit cards but killing our 401k and savings accounts. But hey, at least gas prices dropped today, right?

Right?

Oh, five cents since last week. And that happened over the weekend. I guess those gas prices won't be bottoming out just now.

- - - Updated - - -

Aaaaaaaaaaand here it is:

U.S. blames 'state actors' for manipulating, shocking oil markets

Note he did not say "Fake News media".

The United States on Monday accused “state actors” of trying to manipulate global oil markets, saying their actions contributed to a big drop in oil prices and adding that American energy suppliers were well placed to withstand the volatility.

“These attempts by state actors to manipulate and shock oil markets reinforce the importance of the role of the United States as a reliable energy supplier to partners and allies around the world,” U.S. Energy Department spokeswoman Shaylyn Hynes said in a statement.

The department did not name any country, but said it was watching the fallout from last week’s OPEC+ meeting. It also said the administration was monitoring the effects of the coronavirus, which has the potential to hit oil markets harder than the overall economy due to the impact on fuel demand for transportation.

"Wait, so, American energy companies were prepared for this?"

Well, I'll let @Zan15 handle this but...no, they weren't. That's a lie.

[Dontrike]

The market reflects in real time it can be a number of factors I don't think it ever comes down to just one man unless that one man announces something the market likes or doesn't like

You mean like constant lies about the virus and having no clue how to handle it and therefore potentially spooking people?

[Rasulis]

shale can just shut down. bankrupt themselves...which they are dying to do with their bonds/junk sitting at 6-12%+… then reorganize and reopen when oil jumps and banks come back to loaning them cheap money.

Also I suspect in an election year a huge bailout to this industry in the form of access to really cheap refinance / cheap loans/subsidies...basically farm subsidies on steroids.

- - - Updated - - -


@Breccia

Dow 23,654.97 is the new bottom to look for. 20% drop(Low for today 23,754)


SP500- 2,714 - (low today 2,740)


Nasdaq - 7,870 (low today 7,946)



If all 3 hit those numbers the bull market is officially over with the 11th anniversary

Trump...I mean the US came really close in December....and almost twice under Obama.

four strikes you're out??

I don't think investors will be as forgiving the second time around. They never got their return from the investment after the 2014 - 2015 oil crash. As it is, oil/gas went from 11% of the stock market to less than 3% in a short 10 years. My guess is that Exxon and Chevron will end up buying most of the shale leases in a bankruptcy garage sale.

[Breccia]

This Reuters article is mostly about Treasury bonds and how their drop today was unpredicted. Makes sense, the DOW futures were down 1200 at launch and 2,000 is what happened, so the rush on bonds could have been a surprise.



But it also contains this line:

The Fed delivered a rare intermeeting 50-basis point rate cut last week. Investors are betting the central bank will deliver at least another 75 basis points in rate cuts this month, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

The emergency rate cut brought us to 1.25%. So, that'd drop it to 0.50%. Incidentally, the rate went up to 0.50% in 2015, as W's recession was finally ending.

This doesn't happen in a strong economy. We don't have a strong economy.

[Deadite]

Hard to believe you hate Trump so much you are actively cheering on your own economy tanking. You psychos are practically high fiving each other with each bit of bad news. Fucking unbelievable.
[Infraction]

[Zan15]

Aaaaaaaaaaand here it is:

U.S. blames 'state actors' for manipulating, shocking oil markets

Note he did not say "Fake News media".



"Wait, so, American energy companies were prepared for this?"

Well, I'll let @Zan15 handle this but...no, they weren't. That's a lie.

well oil companies are since they are diversified between exploration, extraction and refining are going to weather this massive drop since they have huge ability to offset losses in one part and make it up with refining the hell out of the cheap oil.
The big 5 also have extraction cost that on average that are still below the price of oil, for now.


Its still going to hurt, but on the flip side they also have a lot of debt they can just keep flipping for lower and lower rates, insanely lower rates....if this keeps up


its everyone else in extraction that were not even prepared for 40-50 dollar oil are fucking doomed. they were doomed before this. Some of their stocks were already down 50% this year before the 2 week drop. Most are near bankruptcy before the oil war started.

Shale companies. depends on where they are located and how much debt they have.


the talk in the market is SA and Russia don't mind the war for a little while to put the third party down for the count, US shale production.
You can get your 1.5-2.0mb cut by putting them out of business then go back to being "friendEnemies"

He is right tho, they are prepared for this. Everyone knew shale would be bankrupt if the price of oil crashed. they are prepared to go out of business.

- - - Updated - - -

Hard to believe you hate Trump so much you are actively cheering on your own economy tanking. You psychos are practically high fiving each other with each bit of bad news. Fucking unbelievable.

examples please? who's cheering?


its no more cheering then non stop bragging that Obama will never hit 3% gdp…..then still talking about it 4 years later.....


BTW trump says the economy is not tanking....!!! So how can you celebrate something that is not happening???

[Rasulis]

Hard to believe you hate Trump so much you are actively cheering on your own economy tanking. You psychos are practically high fiving each other with each bit of bad news. Fucking unbelievable.

Our economy is tanking? The stock market is the economy now? The market is due for correction for at least 2 years. Some sectors, like energy, is overdue by at least 5 years. A sector that can't make profit with super low interest rate and hundreds of billions of government subsidies each year really need to be reassessed.

[Zan15]

I don't think investors will be as forgiving the second time around. They never got their return from the investment after the 2014 - 2015 oil crash. As it is, oil/gas went from 11% of the stock market to less than 3% in a short 10 years. My guess is that Exxon and Chevron will end up buying most of the shale leases in a bankruptcy garage sale.

the big oil companies have massive cash flows and debt issuers fall over each other to compete for their business. not for the interest but for the fees. so they will always get the best rates.

I also don't think they will buy much shale. Pretty much all the really really cheap stuff have already been brought out. You have a few huge shale companies still on the edge that might have some of their assets gobbled up in bankruptcy fire sale but the majors don't need their oil to make money.


Somehow my mind keeps telling me they will end up all in conservatorship with banks, debtors and maybe eventually in some kind of govt run entity as "national security" or bailout plan.

- - - Updated - - -

Not sure this will even work.....giving more money to people isn't necessarily going to make them go out and spend it with the kind of fear happening. They might spend more of it on consumer staples and food but this is not 2009, they have the money already if they wanted to buy those things...



Now the hourly wage relief if done right will at least protect people, but unless tens of millions need it....its not going to be but a blip on the economy.




Trump administration to propose payroll tax cut and hourly wage relief

President Donald Trump said that members of his administration’s coronavirus task force would be meeting with Congress to discuss a payroll tax cut relief and relief for hourly workers.

“We are going to be asking tomorrow, we’re seeing the Senate. We’re going to be meeting with House Republicans, Mitch McConnell, everybody discussing a possible payroll tax cut or relief, substantial relief,” Trump told reporters at a briefing Monday.
“We’re also going to be talking about hourly wage earners getting help so that they can be in a position where they’re not going to ever miss a paycheck,” he added.

[Masark]

Maybe I'm reading "repo" wrong, but, if the Fed wants to fix anything they'll need money to do it. Calling in outstanding loans is one way to do that.

It might be hitting some people while they're down, like you suggested. But the Fed doesn't care about feelings.

You're reading it wrong. This has nothing to do with repossession.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Repurchase_agreement

[Shadowferal]

Hard to believe you hate Trump so much you are actively cheering on your own economy tanking. You psychos are practically high fiving each other with each bit of bad news. Fucking unbelievable.

Hard to believe you take yourself seriously.
Or do you have this simple belief that the economy equates to Wall Street?
Because it doesn't.

[Deadite]

examples please? who's cheering?


its no more cheering then non stop bragging that Obama will never hit 3% gdp…..then still talking about it 4 years later.....


BTW trump says the economy is not tanking....!!! So how can you celebrate something that is not happening???

Who's cheering? You havin a laugh? So Obama never did something 4 years ago and Trump lied *gasp* means your root against your own country? Luckily i am not an American so i don't really care. I just find it highly bizarre that people post about big market downturns with such glee. Maybe you will get lucky and hit massive recession? Just imagine all the 'Fuck Trump' zinger posts you can make!

[jeezusisacasual]

Hard to believe you hate Trump so much you are actively cheering on your own economy tanking. You psychos are practically high fiving each other with each bit of bad news. Fucking unbelievable.

We have only mentioned how hard it is for him to run on a booming economy when it is in the fucking gutter. Also this is not just the US economy this is the entire world economy so stop being a fan of an orange moron and instead look at the bigger picture he is running America much like his businesses he is failing period because he did not understand you do not stimulate an already hot economy with tax cuts ( That is an effort to push growth for a slowdown but please explain to us how the FED and US government will fix the upcoming crisis ).

Also as a Muslim American living in Australia i will high five anytime a bigoted piece of shit loses their employment in a recession, i have helped get bigoted people fired for less.

Also other indicators have shown signs of slowing / struggling economic activity from auto loan defaults etc.

[Deadite]

Hard to believe you take yourself seriously.
Or do you have this simple belief that the economy equates to Wall Street?
Because it doesn't.

Yeah the stock market going down the shitter will never effect the economy.

[Breccia]

You're reading it wrong. This has nothing to do with repossession.

Good. It didn't make sense that way at all.

[PC2]

The stock market is unpredictable in principle so anytime you hear an argument like "it's been going down/up therefore it will continue to go down/up" then you can immediately discard such a prophecy because the future is never effected by historical trends in any way whatsoever.

[Zan15]

Who's cheering? You havin a laugh? So Obama never did something 4 years ago and Trump lied *gasp* means your root against your own country? Luckily i am not an American so i don't really care. I just find it highly bizarre that people post about big market downturns with such glee. Maybe you will get lucky and hit massive recession? Just imagine all the 'Fuck Trump' zinger posts you can make!

again who's cheering?
Who's rooting?
Who's posting with glee?

You still haven't answered? Should be easy for you to give examples.


I mean ra ra I love loosing money!!!....you think my dislike for Trump will make me cheer on losing tens of thousand of dollars?? Losing customers at my business? Are you serious?

I will however admit I am having a laugh at how inept trump is at handling an actual crisis, how much he continues to lie, how uneducated and moronic he is being, how his fear is giving into spreading conspiracy theories and blaming the media.....now that shits funny and scary at the same time. You agree??

I think you have a real problem understanding between discussion and "cheering".
A problem with rooting vs ribbing and sarcasm against our administration
flaunting a "I told you so" vs "glee".


Maybe talk with an American friend so you can understand the context for which we speak.

[Rasulis]

Yeah the stock market going down the shitter will never effect the economy.

Depends. During the 2000 dot.com crash the stock market lost an estimated 8 to 10 trillion dollar in market capitalization. The biggest in absolute dollar. Bigger than even the 2008 housing crash. Most people barely notice. By the current recession standard it does not even qualify as a recession.

[Deadite]

We have only mentioned how hard it is for him to run on a booming economy when it is in the fucking gutter. Also this is not just the US economy this is the entire world economy so stop being a fan of an orange moron and instead look at the bigger picture he is running America much like his businesses he is failing period because he did not understand you do not stimulate an already hot economy with tax cuts ( That is an effort to push growth for a slowdown but please explain to us how the FED and US government will fix the upcoming crisis ).

Also as a Muslim American living in Australia i will high five anytime a bigoted piece of shit loses their employment in a recession, i have helped get bigoted people fired for less.

Also other indicators have shown signs of slowing / struggling economic activity from auto loan defaults etc.

Well the tread is about the US economy. Not a fan of the orange moron and i will high five you anytime some bigoted piece of shit loses their employment in a recession. I guess the silver lining will be this could be the thing that gets rid of Trump as it did seem to be the only thing he had going for him. Guess i never realized how stone cold some people are. Willing to throw the economy under the bus to get rid of Trump.