Page 1 of 58
1
2
3
11
51
... LastLast
  1. #1

    Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

    They always say the second year the new presidents administration and congress changes and actions start to impact society and the economy.

    Welp here we are. Down for the year.


    Things are not looking good and the quick burst impact of the unpaid for tax cuts, quick gdp bump of rushing to beat tariffs and growing inflation that is outpacing wage growth.




    First we have the gloomy outlook on 4Q gdp.

    Latest forcast 2.5% from the site they loved to quote the first 3 quarters. General consensus is down to 2.6%.
    NYfed is at 2.59%

    https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
    https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast



    So how much MAGA are we getting in the stock market vs our last president you ask?


    Dow & SP500







    SP500

    Obama 42.9%
    Trump 15.9%

    260% better performance in his first term through 11/20


    Dow

    Obama 37.6%
    Trump 23.2%

    62% better performance


    Is this a bump in the road? an expected pull back from lofty highs? If you look at the charts from past presidents the end of the 2nd year is when things really hit either the gas peddle or the break.




    there are a lot of good things about the current economy but are we starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel for this 9 year run?

  2. #2
    well, wonder how many of the Trumpkins that waved the market as a Trump "win" will be swapping to "the markets dont reflect main street"

  3. #3
    I am Murloc! unfilteredJW's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Seaside, FL
    Posts
    5,378
    And thus a great cheer was heard from the depths of ZeroHedge.
    Quote Originally Posted by Destroyer of Leftism View Post
    He destroyed nothing. His posts are nothing but lies, strawman and degeneracy.

  4. #4
    It dropped below the year start mark in October... today’s it’s just doing it again, but I bet the holiday season will be huge.
    Entropy won't yield to you.
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    I don’t work here, I only smoke here.

  5. #5
    The Insane Belize's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Gen-OT College of Shitposting
    Posts
    18,213
    Good. We need a correction badly to avoid a massive crash.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    It dropped below the year start mark in October... today’s it’s just doing it again, but I bet the holiday season will be huge.
    OPEC is due to discuss cutting production on Dec 6(didn't Trump just thank Saudis for holding production while hand waving murder?)


    so if that 1 million cut happens, expect more selloffs

  7. #7
    Merely a Setback Adam Jensen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Sarif Industries, Detroit
    Posts
    26,571
    Quote Originally Posted by D Luniz View Post
    well, wonder how many of the Trumpkins that waved the market as a Trump "win" will be swapping to "the markets dont reflect main street"
    Nah, it'll be "notice how the economy shifted after the Democrats took the House?"

  8. #8
    Time to buy.
    The wise wolf who's pride is her wisdom isn't so sharp as drunk.

  9. #9
    The Insane Kujako's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    In the woods, doing what bears do.
    Posts
    17,850
    It's because the Democrats took the House!
    It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed, the hands acquire shakes, the shakes become a warning.

    -Kujako-

  10. #10
    “I’ve been around for a long time and it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans.” -- Donald Trump, 2004

    Well, at least the Cheeto-in-Chief was right about one thing in his life.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Kujako View Post
    It's because the Democrats took the House!
    You saw before, this is what you and I both predict they will do. Just wait and see... >_<

  12. #12

  13. #13
    To be fair, Obama inherited a really shitty economy in the throws of its worst downturn in nearly a century, and Trump inherited Obama's soaring economy. Obama gets a boost from digging out of a hole, and Trump really couldn't do too much more than sit and enjoy.

    But then the problems come in from the fact that Trump couldn't just sit and enjoy, he kept giving it gas because he's an incompetent dickwit and now we're flooding the engine.

    What really gets me, though, is that Trump claims he's responsible for the peaks in our economy, but then also claims this dip is a correction that he knew was coming. So you claim that the economy is great because of you, but you also claim that you knew then that its greatness was a fabrication and soon to be erased? I don't know where I'm going with this; I know if Trump said "This sentence is a lie," his supporters would simultaneously agree it is both a lie and true that it is a lie, and not see or feel the contradiction.

  14. #14

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Jensen View Post
    Nah, it'll be "notice how the economy shifted after the Democrats took the House?"
    Quote Originally Posted by Kujako View Post
    It's because the Democrats took the House!
    Only took two posts. Also Kujako confirmed deep state republican.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Jensen View Post
    Nah, it'll be "notice how the economy shifted after the Democrats took the House?"
    Don’t let them get away with it... Droptober was last month... before the election. The market has been up and down the whole year since Trump’s tax cut. There is a 3 step system that has been running the market for the last year...

    Step 1 - Bull market! Everyone is happy! Up and up we go!
    Step 2 - Trump makes a trade war comment... and down we go!
    Step 3 - Trump has focused on immigration, instead of trade? Bull market, here we go! Quick before Trump talks trade...
    Step 4 - Trump tweets about China... no!!! Down we go...

    On repeat...
    U.S. Accuses China of Continuing IP Theft Amid Trade War
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-xi-talks-near

    Stock Market Woes Worsen As Trade War Worries Grow
    https://reason.com/blog/2018/11/20/s...gain-trade-war
    Worse may be on the way. More than half of the chief financial officers included in a periodic survey by CNBC say they expect the Dow to drop below 23,000 points—as of Tuesday afternoon, it was sitting at 24,500 points—before it stabilizes. That would wipe out not only all the gains from 2018, but would represent the lowest point for the major industrial index since October 2017.
    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Grapemask View Post
    But then the problems come in from the fact that Trump couldn't just sit and enjoy, he kept giving it gas because he's an incompetent dickwit and now we're flooding the engine.
    He bailed out a booming market... now interest is a problem. When Bush did it, we had a surplus and 911 was just a number to call the cops. You can say he was an idiot for doing it, but Trump Corp revenue is up and taxes are down. Coastal elites, being coastal elites... if only we had a family running for government from Illinois or Arkansas... oh well...
    Entropy won't yield to you.
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    I don’t work here, I only smoke here.

  17. #17
    I'm not sure this has much to do with Trump, and much more with the continued fiscal policy. Outside of the tax reform, not much has changed with the economy except for overconfidence starting to correct. Once people saw that the new taxes would mix some things up but give us the same old thing, it is fair that stock market is seeing a sea of red after hitting 25k on the Dow.

    We've nearly capped on unemployment, yet wages are slowly declining if not plateaued for decades, and entering the winter season where productivity is always the lowest. Going to need to push something hard to keep us out of a recession, having that said it is a long time coming and would be unfair to say it is solely Trump's fault if it comes to that.
    If curiosity killed the cat, why can't speculation kill you?

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by lllBlackSunlll View Post
    I'm not sure this has much to do with Trump, and much more with the continued fiscal policy. Outside of the tax reform, not much has changed with the economy except for overconfidence starting to correct. Once people saw that the new taxes would mix some things up but give us the same old thing, it is fair that stock market is seeing a sea of red after hitting 25k on the Dow.
    Trump bailed out a booming market, which spiked inflation. At the same time, he initiated trade wars, by using executive orders for national security. This is the direct fault of Trump, in both the tax cut that was passed by congress, but compounded by executive orders that are the sole action of Trump. The 25000 reaction further doesn’t make sense, since we hit nearly 27000 before Droptober last month.

    The thing is... we really cannot afford a recession after that tax cut. The deficit is growing far faster than it has in history and we are not even in a recession. Let’s just hope Trump’s talk of defaulting on debt before the election, was bullshit.

    We've nearly capped on unemployment, yet wages are slowly declining if not plateaued for decades, and entering the winter season where productivity is always the lowest. Going to need to push something hard to keep us out of a recession, having that said it is a long time coming and would be unfair to say it is solely Trump's fault if it comes to that.
    Not quite... unemployment was nearly capped when Trump took over, when it was 4.7. The current 3.7 is .3 lower than what is considered full employment. As I said above, have the capital to push back against a recession, Trump spent it on a bail out, during a booming market. This is 100% Trump’s fault... Congress was not involved in his executive orders...
    Entropy won't yield to you.
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    I don’t work here, I only smoke here.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    Trump bailed out a booming market, which spiked inflation. At the same time, he initiated trade wars, by using executive orders for national security. This is the direct fault of Trump, in both the tax cut that was passed by congress, but compounded by executive orders that are the sole action of Trump. The 25000 reaction further doesn’t make sense, since we hit nearly 27000 before Droptober last month.

    The thing is... we really cannot afford a recession after that tax cut. The deficit is growing far faster than it has in history and we are not even in a recession. Let’s just hope Trump’s talk of defaulting on debt before the election, was bullshit.



    Not quite... unemployment was nearly capped when Trump took over, when it was 4.7. The current 3.7 is .3 lower than what is considered full employment. As I said above, have the capital to push back against a recession, Trump spent it on a bail out, during a booming market. This is 100% Trump’s fault... Congress was not involved in his executive orders...
    I guess to simplify it, if we either continued with Obama's fiscal policy, or went in the opposite with Trump's, the recession was due either way.
    I am not a fan the trade wars or certain executive actions, but blaming those as a dominant cause for a bear market disregards what has been happening for the past 9 years, and is unfair if not silly.

    What I feel is the worse is not discussing what to do during a recession, and instead blaming someone for the recession. Simply put, we are a debter nation, so bubbles and rise to a declining markets are common and put us at risk for strong 'good times' but pretty bad 'bad times' ie riots in the streets and 15+% unemployment. Trump can blame this on immigrants or the Chinese, his opposition can blame it on corruption or the Russians, but this won't mean anything for the everyday person. I feel the best things is for people to be more aware of a negative impact come this spring, especially if there is more federal involvement, it could expedite the recession, or prolong it but make it more severe.
    If curiosity killed the cat, why can't speculation kill you?

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Grapemask View Post
    To be fair, Obama inherited a really shitty economy in the throws of its worst downturn in nearly a century, and Trump inherited Obama's soaring economy. Obama gets a boost from digging out of a hole, and Trump really couldn't do too much more than sit and enjoy.

    But then the problems come in from the fact that Trump couldn't just sit and enjoy, he kept giving it gas because he's an incompetent dickwit and now we're flooding the engine.

    What really gets me, though, is that Trump claims he's responsible for the peaks in our economy, but then also claims this dip is a correction that he knew was coming. So you claim that the economy is great because of you, but you also claim that you knew then that its greatness was a fabrication and soon to be erased? I don't know where I'm going with this; I know if Trump said "This sentence is a lie," his supporters would simultaneously agree it is both a lie and true that it is a lie, and not see or feel the contradiction.
    So what you just said is: George Bush tanked the economy in HIS two terms, and Obama not only fixed the problems Bush saddled him with, but actually left Trump with a soaring economy.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •