Russians Are Increasingly Concerned About Western Sanctions and Isolation

[Shalcker]

Still not even back to 2014 levels.

You're lacking 2018 which is ending this month in your picture, so that isn't obvious - it might as well be.

And if not, if recovery is robust we'll be there next year.

After that we'll be strictly better off.

[Mormolyce]

You're lacking 2018 which is ending this month in your picture, so that isn't obvious - it might as well be.

...

That's because it is currently 2018.

[Crispin]

...

That's because it is currently 2018.

It's apparently very subjective what defines "doing pretty well"

For western countries the Russian situation would be a disaster. For Venezuela however, it would indeed be "doing pretty well"

[Shalcker]

...
That's because it is currently 2018.

"Still" implies "now" to me.

Looking at published quarter results, next year looks more likely anyway.

[Mormolyce]

"Still" implies "now" to me.

Looking at published quarter results, next year looks more likely anyway.

I'm sure it'll all turn around any minute now.

Watch out Trinidad and Tobago!

[Shalcker]

I'm sure it'll all turn around any minute now.

Watch out Trinidad and Tobago!

It already turned around, it's right on your graph.

It'll go up past that by all indications.

If we do better it'll go up faster; if we do worse it'll go up slower.

Now it all depends on us, not on you.

[Felya]

If we do better it'll go up faster; if we do worse it'll go up slower.

No way it can be worse than it is now... only place to go is up...

[Shalcker]

No way it can be worse than it is now... only place to go is up...

Dropping just about 4% GDP PPP per capita over 3 years from 2013 highs while oil price halved and exchange rate doubled is pretty decent result.

They are quite capable as far as "containing damage" goes.

"Encouraging growth" - not so much. "Just keep it stable long enough and once everyone trusts it to be stable things will pick up" seems to be their refrain.

...but not many trust it to be stable yet.

[Techno-Druid]

you really think the US would let china have the russian far east with all its resources? lol... if anything, japan and mongolia should get it

Most of Siberia would have to be independent and probably would balkanize between the ethnic minority regions (Tuva, Buryatia, Sakha Republic) and the overwhelming Slavic majority regions, although a lot of Russians and minorities like Ukrainians might just mass immigrate to European Russia anyway (similar to Ethnic Germans in East Europe after WW2).

If Japan got any piece of Russia it would probably be Sakhalin (Karafuto) and the Kuril Islands.

[Felya]

Dropping just about 4% GDP PPP per capita over 3 years from 2013 highs while oil price halved and exchange rate doubled is pretty decent result.

They are quite capable as far as "containing damage" goes.

"Encouraging growth" - not so much. "Just keep it stable long enough and once everyone trusts it to be stable things will pick up" seems to be their refrain.

...but not many trust it to be stable yet.

What ever “you” say... I will “wait” until “then”...

[Mormolyce]

It already turned around, it's right on your graph.

It'll go up past that by all indications.

If we do better it'll go up faster; if we do worse it'll go up slower.

Now it all depends on us, not on you.

You're reading one year bumping upwards as "turning it around"?

Of course you are lol.

[Shalcker]

You're reading one year bumping upwards as "turning it around"?

Of course you are lol.

It happened as projected. So far their projections hold. This year shows similar growth.

Why it upsets you so much really?

[Skroe]

Shalcker's been predicting the big turn around for Russia aproximately since five minutes after the first sanctions were put into effect 4.5 years ago.

Instead, it keeps getting worse. Oh sure there's been the brighter corner here and there. But it's been a constant state of retreat.


It's a joke that it's almost 2019 and he's saying the same nonsense about Russia's prospects he was saying in 2014, as if the past 5 years of isolation, economic and security declines haven't happened.

[Ulmita]

Your economy has been stagnant if not declining since 2014. Hmm, what happened in 2014 again? Oh yes, Crimea.

Almost as if the sanctions are crippling you, just like the thread says.

Their economy has a modest growth and will continue to grow. Actually its outpacing the economies of lots of EU countries.

Russia is so rich in natural resources that no amount of EU and especially US sanctions can break them.

If China had joined the sanction game it would have been a different story, but China is backing up Russia. To be honest with you China is way more important partner than the US for Russia and it should be for any other country in the world.

US is just fading away, slowly but surely and by weaponizing the dollar, thry've signed its downfall (look how many countries are currently switching trade from USDs to local currencies and how many just font give s flack about sanction threats). In 2 decades max, power will switch to the east

[Deleted]

anyone posted the capital flight figures yet. yuuuuuggeeeee.

[Dingding21]

Their economy has a modest growth and will continue to grow. Actually its outpacing the economies of lots of EU countries.

Russia is so rich in natural resources that no amount of EU and especially US sanctions can break them.

If China had joined the sanction game it would have been a different story, but China is backing up Russia. To be honest with you China is way more important partner than the US for Russia and it should be for any other country in the world.

US is just fading away, slowly but surely and by weaponizing the dollar, thry've signed its downfall (look how many countries are currently switching trade from USDs to local currencies and how many just font give s flack about sanction threats). In 2 decades max, power will switch to the east

The sanctions that have been used recently is not quite doing the job of isolating Iran as was supposed to, even India is still purchasing oil from Iran with there own currency along with other countries doing the same thing.

The petrol dollar will eventually lose the value it once had in the world and should that go under, things in the USA isn't going to be pleasant as that is one of the biggest advantages that the USA has in the world. The whole 'America first' slogan isn't doing much good for Trump. Any other president wouldn't have done this much damage to the reputation of the USA.

[Cthulhu 2020]

Do you think your claims that you're surrounded by Russian trolls are going to convince anyone?

I find you pretty sad too given how much more time then me you're wasting on this forum "exposing Russian trolls and Trumpers".

The difference is you sink like 10+ hours a day into shilling for Russia on these forums. Most of us pop in for maybe an hour a day tops just for shits and giggles.

[Slybak]

So, like, Japan? I mean, Japan did pretty well.

It's a pretty pervasive Western bromide that Japanese culture is inclined toward regression. Truth is, the one constant about Japanese history is that the country has consistently reinvented itself, for good and ill, in order to deal with external challenges. The society was completely transformed during the early years of Meiji period, for instance, from what it was in the Edo period. The political changes alone were dramatic - Japan went from a quasi-feudal society that was the repeated target of foreign intrusions, to a bureaucratic state and imperial world power in about 25 years - but even Japanese culture, from architecture to styles of dress, changed drastically over just a couple of decades.

Russia could certainly do the same because (a) they already have, multiple times in the past, and (b) literally any nation can because human societies are incredibly malleable.

[Ulmita]

anyone posted the capital flight figures yet. yuuuuuggeeeee.

Bi product of sanctions and uncertainty. However, they are included in the report i've presented few pages ago from word bank. Bottom line is that their Economy still recovers and grows.

[Shalcker]

Shalcker's been predicting the big turn around for Russia aproximately since five minutes after the first sanctions were put into effect 4.5 years ago.

Not "big turn around". A "percent or two growth" turn around.

Exactly like we see now.

Instead, it keeps getting worse. Oh sure there's been the brighter corner here and there. But it's been a constant state of retreat.

Except it doesn't actually get worse. Even our international reserves are back to 2014 levels.

It's a joke that it's almost 2019 and he's saying the same nonsense about Russia's prospects he was saying in 2014, as if the past 5 years of isolation, economic and security declines haven't happened.

They happened and they were adapted to.

Back to growth now.

- - - Updated - - -

anyone posted the capital flight figures yet. yuuuuuggeeeee.

You mean this? Not that big really in absolute terms.

There are also gold reserves and balance of trade (higher positive balance of trade seems to be coinciding with current capital outflows).