Big Love Rocket Support Group 2019

[Kikazz]

Close to 400 attempts over the years, and still no mount

[Dracullus]

Close to 400 attempts over the years, and still no mount

After this year I'll have around 826 tries, which give me 21.95% likelihood that I'll get it at least once. Your right now is 11.31%, so you'll still be veeery lucky if mount drops. ;P

I plan to level all Allied Races to 110 this year, it have higher priority that leveling rest to 120 to be honest. So next year I'll try with 21 chars, assuming that Vulpera/Mechagnomes will come around September.

[Kikazz]

After this year I'll have around 826 tries, which give me 21.95% likelihood that I'll get it at least once. Your right now is 11.31%, so you'll still be veeery lucky if mount drops. ;P

I plan to level all Allied Races to 110 this year, it have higher priority that leveling rest to 120 to be honest. So next year I'll try with 21 chars, assuming that Vulpera/Mechagnomes will come around September.

doing it multiple times doesnt increase chance....

it has like a 2% chance per kill...

you kill it 200 times, you still only had a 2% chance each time.

[Dracullus]

doing it multiple times doesnt increase chance....

it has like a 2% chance per kill...

you kill it 200 times, you still only had a 2% chance each time.

Let me explain with coin toss:

- with single coin toss I can get two results with equal probability: heads (H) or tails (T)

- if I toss coin second time, I still have 50% chance for both results in this single toss, but if we count both tosses, we have 4 results with equal probability:
1. H-T
2. H-H
3. T-H
4. T-T

So as you see: chance I got heads in single toss is 50%, chance that I get heads two times in two tosses is 25%, but chance that I get heads at least once in two tosses is 75%.

Same way with Big Love Rocket. Chance that I'll get BLR in single run is 0.03%. But chance that I'll get BLR at least once (and it's all we need) in 826 tries is 21.95%. Of course likelihood will never reach 100%, even after 15k tries it will be something like 99%.

[Kikazz]

Let me explain with coin toss:

- with single coin toss I can get two results with equal probability: heads (H) or tails (T)

- if I toss coin second time, I still have 50% chance for both results in this single toss, but if we count both tosses, we have 4 results with equal probability:
1. H-T
2. H-H
3. T-H
4. T-T

So as you see: chance I got heads in single toss is 50%, chance that I get heads two times in two tosses is 25%, but chance that I get heads at least once in two tosses is 75%.

Same way with Big Love Rocket. Chance that I'll get BLR in single run is 0.03%. But chance that I'll get BLR at least once (and it's all we need) in 826 tries is 21.95%. Of course likelihood will never reach 100%, even after 15k tries it will be something like 99%.

but the thing you are basing it off, is the fact that more dice rolls increases your probability of getting it.

aka the liklihood doesnt increase each time because you had more attempts, is what im saying.

if i was using a coin and flipping it yes, my odds would increase as i was flipping a 2 sided coin more than once.

trying to base an RNG drop against a 50/50 chance, when in actual fact the drop is not a 50/50 is where you went wrong.

its more a 0.2% chance static every attempt, set apart from anything else.

thats what im getting at.

saying you can increase your chances by doing it more is wrong,

what your basing it off is after 826 attempts you should be at 21.95% chance for a drop,

no after 826 attempts, your 827th attempt will still have an 0.2% chance to drop.

[Azerate]

but the thing you are basing it off, is the fact that more dice rolls increases your probability of getting it.

aka the liklihood doesnt increase each time because you had more attempts, is what im saying.

if i was using a coin and flipping it yes, my odds would increase as i was flipping a 2 sided coin more than once.

trying to base an RNG drop against a 50/50 chance, when in actual fact the drop is not a 50/50 is where you went wrong.

its more a 0.2% chance static every attempt, set apart from anything else.

thats what im getting at.

saying you can increase your chances by doing it more is wrong,

what your basing it off is after 826 attempts you should be at 21.95% chance for a drop,

no after 826 attempts, your 827th attempt will still have an 0.2% chance to drop.

Yes and no. These are two slightly different things.

Yes, the drop rate is the same for every kill/attempt, no matter how many you do.

But... the likelihood that you will get something does rise with the amount of attempts you do.

Or in other words, as you increase the number of attempts, it becomes less likely you will keep failing thousands of times in a row.

Or yet in other words, the chance to get a positive result is the same for every attempt by itself, but the chance you will get the negative attempt decreases with every attempt you do.

There are many better explanations on how this works on the internet, as I'm not mathematician and can't really explain it well.

So:

what your basing it off is after 826 attempts you should be at 21.95% chance for a drop,

no after 826 attempts, your 827th attempt will still have an 0.2% chance to drop.

Yes, his chance is still 0,02% per kill or whatever it rounds up to, but the likelihood that he will get it is at 21,95%.

doing it multiple times doesnt increase chance....

it has like a 2% chance per kill...

you kill it 200 times, you still only had a 2% chance each time.

The chance is not 2% per kill, that would be super high. Basic raid mounts are all 1% (1/100). Rocket is 1 in 3333.

[Fistfighter]

We're at day 9/15.
I cleared it every day with 7 characters and so far I have to say, luck hasn't been my bro.
That's 63 kills so far and I got the following:
1 toxic wasteling
1 rose cosmetic
1 of those cloth plague masks

aaaand that's it. The drops are extremely cruel to me this year. I'd like to point out I am also farming the Heartbreaker toy, since WoD. And that also haven't droped for me. So rocket chances are slim, if even the stupid toy can't drop.

[Dracullus]

but the thing you are basing it off, is the fact that more dice rolls increases your probability of getting it.

aka the liklihood doesnt increase each time because you had more attempts, is what im saying.

if i was using a coin and flipping it yes, my odds would increase as i was flipping a 2 sided coin more than once.

trying to base an RNG drop against a 50/50 chance, when in actual fact the drop is not a 50/50 is where you went wrong.

its more a 0.2% chance static every attempt, set apart from anything else.

thats what im getting at.

saying you can increase your chances by doing it more is wrong,

what your basing it off is after 826 attempts you should be at 21.95% chance for a drop,

no after 826 attempts, your 827th attempt will still have an 0.2% chance to drop.

It's not "my 827th attempt will have 21.95% chance to drop mount", it's "in 827 attempts there is 21.95% chance that mount will drop at least once". Two entirely different things.

It works the same with 1 in 3333 as with 1 in 2 (aka "50/50"). Second example: you roll dice with 6 sides and want to get 5.

one roll: there are 6 possible results {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} with same probability, chance to get 5 is 1/6=16.67%

two rolls: there are 36 possible results {11,12,13,14,15,16,21,22,23,24,25,26,31,32,33,34,35,36,41,42,43,44,45,46,51,52,53,54,55,56,61,62,63,64,65,66} chance to get 5 is single roll is 16.67%, chance to get 5 twice in two rolls is 1/36=2.78%, chance to 5 at least once in two rolls is 11/36=30.56%.

And of course it work this way. Otherwise people that do repeatable things with low chance for big success (like applying for high paying job) would act really stupid.

[korijenkins]

I got it on my first run ever back in MoP!

Suckers!

[Stardrift]

Running 32 characters this year with a potential 2 more hovering around level 104-106 at the moment. I still think it's silly that they won't change the drop rate since it was originally rare because it was a coveted 310% flyer. Even the Headless Horseman mount used to have a different drop chance afaik so it's not like there's no precedent.

Nah. They should keep it the same.

It's one of the very few mounts I still raise my brows at when I see one flying around.

[Schizoide]

Yeah, it's waaaaay too late to make it more common now. They could add a more common recolor, though. Perhaps purple.

[Tyrathius]

I've got 15 toons I could run it on. Generally I don't do that many every day though.

Usually I only take toons that can tank or heal unless the DPS queue is really short (for whatever reason sometimes it seems to be <5 min and other times over half an hour) which would put me at 9. Even that's enough to get old quick.

[Schizoide]

I queue all 12 characters as DPS on US realms and usually hit the 10 instance per hour limit, so looking at <~3-4 minute average queue times. For me typically horde queues are about twice as long.

[Bathrezz]

Im running with 15toons a day, haven't got it yet but i'm sure it'll drop tomorrow

[Fabinas]

In WoD and Legion i ran it with 20 chars every day. Never dropped. Another straw that helped break the camel's back.

[Archmage Alodi]

I give up. Not going to bother doing this anymore, I'm done with trying.

[trapmaster]

I'm running my 20 110s+ through the apothecaries daily. Queues are good on EU. Healers sub 1 min, tanks 1-2 min, pure dps 3-5 minutes. Really takes no time at all.

Also, even if you don't have the spec, just queue as it to reduce the time. I keep queueing as healer on dps toons, and as tanks on dps toons, never wiped yet. The bosses just fall over anyway.

Had a long break between wotlk and legion so basically started farming last year. At 281 attempts total as of today.

Owww, that sucks dude. I still wish they could put in there in vendor for like 5k or 10k or 20k or 50k love tokens, not tradeable.

[Illusions]

I have five characters this year. Already takes 30 mins to do it all, which is a lot of time for me, and still no drops. I had more characters last year, I believe.

And yet the end of the day is drawing closer, I'm starting to panic.

Haven't even bothered to do the dailies that much, only to see that I'm 50 away from the toy and there's 4 days left. Main char gets 5 tokens per dungeon run as well, while alts who I'm not bothering doing it on are getting 10 tokens per run. Really off-putting.

[Dreamchaser]

Here is last years and this years.
X is nothing
T is trinket
P is pet
M is mask
F is flower

[Lollis]

P=1-((1-d)^x)

The droprate (d) is reportedly 0.03%

This means that after 2000 kills, you would have a 55% chance to have NOT had it drop.
By 8000 kills, you would have a 91% chance for it to have dropped.