Will Blizzard release sub numbers of Classic eventually?

[Maudib]

The classic project lives on stealth and being hidden with the rest of the wow subs, if the high ups start to feel its limiting revenue you can 100% guarantee they will cut it.

There's no feasible way wow classic can bring in enough new MAU's to feasably stand alone as a front line product and allowed to continue un monotized.

This what people mean when they say the market is a whole different ball game and size than it was in 2004.

Not surprisingly, I disagree.

The team added to make Classic come alive is microscopic... and the cost? Dirt cheap. Server technology? Already in place. Modern WoW is doing so poorly that there is plenty of space/bandwidth on existing infrastructure to support Classic.

While you think there is no feasible way WoW could become a "front line" product... that truly could not be further from the truth.

If you take the 12 million players at WoW's pinnacle, and guestimate 4 million current players (generously I might add) there alone is 8 million potential customers for Classic. That doesn't take into consideration the people who have come and gone in that period that aren't accounted for in the 12 million... Several million more I am sure.

I find it VERY feasible that Classic could become more popular than modern WoW... and those players are consistent monthly subber's... because they invest in MMOs... while current WoW almost drives people to unsub for periods at a time (or permanently lol).

And if the two combined can get back to a consistent 10 million subs? 150 milllion a month, 1.8 billion a year? Not sure where you got your math from... but it's off by a wee bit. Then revisit the fact that classic cost (comparatively) NOTHING to produce?

Oh baby, the value of those MAUs are OFF the chart.

Of course all of this hinges on whether Classic does well. It may... it may not. We don't have much longer to find out. But if it does... Classic TBC and CLassic WotLK are sure to follow, without doubt.

Modern WoW? May very well "devolve" to development/design principles that made the Classic Trilogy such a success.

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Brack won't ever allow any blizzard pr praise for how its doing or big numbers out. Hes dying inside for another "you think you do but you don't". I doubt classic would have seen the light of day if it wasn't already an almost finished project by the time mike left.

No.. Brack will eat up the credit for it... "I was the one who announced it!" "It released under my watch!", "Crow never tasted so good!", "Initially we thought the demand for Classic was limited. But thank goodness we listened to our players and decided to go forward with Classic. The response has been earth shattering in a way only Thrall could explain!"

"Thank you, thank you.. all my idea."

[Ielenia]

Sub numbers will put an end to this discussion.

There would be no "sub numbers for Classic" because Classic and Current WoW are under the same subscription.

[vsb]

Why do you need Blizzard to release numbers? Just parse armory and you'll have those numbers. It's not a rocket science. I don't think that Blizzard will release numbers, it's not some stupid girl who wants to prove something, it's a megacorporation and they will act to maximize profits. Releasing numbers won't maximize profits.

[Monster Hunter]

Not surprisingly, I disagree.

The team added to make Classic come alive is microscopic... and the cost? Dirt cheap. Server technology? Already in place. Modern WoW is doing so poorly that there is plenty of space/bandwidth on existing infrastructure to support Classic.

While you think there is no feasible way WoW could become a "front line" product... that truly could not be further from the truth.

If you take the 12 million players at WoW's pinnacle, and guestimate 4 million current players (generously I might add) there alone is 8 million potential customers for Classic. That doesn't take into consideration the people who have come and gone in that period that aren't accounted for in the 12 million... Several million more I am sure.

I find it VERY feasible that Classic could become more popular than modern WoW... and those players are consistent monthly subber's... because they invest in MMOs... while current WoW almost drives people to unsub for periods at a time (or permanently lol).

And if the two combined can get back to a consistent 10 million subs? 150 milllion a month, 1.8 billion a year? Not sure where you got your math from... but it's off by a wee bit. Then revisit the fact that classic cost (comparatively) NOTHING to produce?

Oh baby, the value of those MAUs are OFF the chart.

Of course all of this hinges on whether Classic does well. It may... it may not. We don't have much longer to find out. But if it does... Classic TBC and CLassic WotLK are sure to follow, without doubt.

Modern WoW? May very well "devolve" to development/design principles that made the Classic Trilogy such a success.

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No.. Brack will eat up the credit for it... "I was the one who announced it!" "It released under my watch!", "Crow never tasted so good!", "Initially we thought the demand for Classic was limited. But thank goodness we listened to our players and decided to go forward with Classic. The response has been earth shattering in a way only Thrall could explain!"

"Thank you, thank you.. all my idea."

the value of those MAU's are exactly 15 bucks a month with no way of increasing the value of of the those MAU's. a front line product has to show continual growth 8 million MAU's at 15 bucks a month is small change for blizzard. and they would need to be adding 500,000-1mil more MAU's per quarter to show growth worth continual investment.

[garicasha]

I think classic may be very popular in the beginning as the potential market is quite large...but the people thinking that it'll beat retail are nuts. There will be ZERO raid content that isn't demolished within hours of release, and after BWL it's either run in circles around Un'Goro for hours or don't raid. There is no freaking way that huge masses of players are going to think farming Dreamfoil is the best possible use of their time.

Also even in 2004 WoW's graphics weren't very demanding. And there were some kickass video games available then but there are even more awesome ones available now.

[Maudib]

I think classic may be very popular in the beginning as the potential market is quite large...but the people thinking that it'll beat retail are nuts. There will be ZERO raid content that isn't demolished within hours of release, and after BWL it's either run in circles around Un'Goro for hours or don't raid. There is no freaking way that huge masses of players are going to think farming Dreamfoil is the best possible use of their time.

Also even in 2004 WoW's graphics weren't very demanding. And there were some kickass video games available then but there are even more awesome ones available now.

Isn't pretty much raid content being beaten within hours exactly what is happening in modern WoW?

Besides... Classic isn't about everyone raiding. Not at all. It doesn't surprise me that some people cannot fathom the popularity of the MMORPG, they haven't played one in years as WoW hasn't been one in years. Classic and modern are two entirely different games.

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the value of those MAU's are exactly 15 bucks a month with no way of increasing the value of of the those MAU's. a front line product has to show continual growth 8 million MAU's at 15 bucks a month is small change for blizzard. and they would need to be adding 500,000-1mil more MAU's per quarter to show growth worth continual investment.

And yet that hasn't happened since... ummm let's see... Wrath.

And yet Blizzard has managed to con their way into keeping modern WoW alive despite losing MAUs every expansion. So your point seems disproven.

Nah... if Classic brings back millions of players to pay $15 a month... not the ones already paying that but bringing back a portion of those that left... it'll be wildly successful. Selling the old game with low overhead to re-introduce? That will be nearly pure profit.

[Monster Hunter]

Isn't pretty much raid content being beaten within hours exactly what is happening in modern WoW?

Besides... Classic isn't about everyone raiding. Not at all. It doesn't surprise me that some people cannot fathom the popularity of the MMORPG, they haven't played one in years as WoW hasn't been one in years. Classic and modern are two entirely different games.

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And yet that hasn't happened since... ummm let's see... Wrath.

And yet Blizzard has managed to con their way into keeping modern WoW alive despite losing MAUs every expansion. So your point seems disproven.

Nah... if Classic brings back millions of players to pay $15 a month... not the ones already paying that but bringing back a portion of those that left... it'll be wildly successful. Selling the old game with low overhead to re-introduce? That will be nearly pure profit.

yes because they increase the value of those MUA's via micro transaction and token sales, as well as the big boost that comes from expansion sales.

the $15 a month sub is a trivial part of wows income in today's game. even at 12 million players wow classic would make per quarter what current and new IP's make. black ops for example made 500mil in 3 days. just on sales. that was the execs want. they don't care about a cheap re-spin of an old game that will only net them a couple hundred mil a year if it exceeds all expectations. they when IP's like over watch and black ops and hearthstone where they can milk MAU's for increasing money via micro transactions, because that model has shown to have the highest profit margins.

[Rafoel]

How they could possibly release sub numbers for classic specifically? There will be only one sub for both retail and classic. Releasing other stats like characters created would be extremely misleading on the other hand. There will be no way of saying how many people subbed only because of classic, even with internal data.

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yes because they increase the value of those MUA's via micro transaction and token sales, as well as the big boost that comes from expansion sales.

the $15 a month sub is a trivial part of wows income in today's game. even at 12 million players wow classic would make per quarter what current and new IP's make. black ops for example made 500mil in 3 days. just on sales. that was the execs want. they don't care about a cheap re-spin of an old game that will only net them a couple hundred mil a year if it exceeds all expectations. they when IP's like over watch and black ops and hearthstone where they can milk MAU's for increasing money via micro transactions, because that model has shown to have the highest profit margins.

You have no idea about both economy and math.

First, with 12 million players WoW makes 500 million in less than 3 months. What's more, the cost of game production and marketing is great. Meanwhile sub cost was practically only maintenance. The patch content was minimal before Cata - most dev time was spent on expansions, which have price of their own. The profit from releasing expansion can easily pass 500 million, because always more people will buy expansion than sub - you can buy and unsub, but you cant sub and not buy (well, you technically can, but then you are playing outdated content).

Second, you say that with each player spending 15$ a month is not important, and more money comes from microtransactions. Excuse me? What exactly are people "buying"? Every single subscriber buys store pet or faction transfer every month? There is literally no way microtransactions bring more profit than subs.


The focus on microtransactions is an attempt to save some profits, not bring more of them. Being unable to keep subs Blizzard tries to milk the still subscribed to offset the losses. Microtransaction based model only works if you can bait clueless newbies into buying useless stuff for their fresh characters. Subs provide entry barrier that most gullible super casuals won't even pass over. Combining both models is the worst idea one could have.

[Monster Hunter]

How they could possibly release sub numbers for classic specifically? There will be only one sub for both retail and classic. Releasing other stats like characters created would be extremely misleading on the other hand. There will be no way of saying how many people subbed only because of classic, even with internal data.

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You have no idea about both economy and math.

First, with 12 million players WoW makes 500 million in less than 3 months. What's more, the cost of game production and marketing is great. Meanwhile sub cost was practically only maintenance. The patch content was minimal before Cata - most dev time was spent on expansions, which have price of their own. The profit from releasing expansion can easily pass 500 million, because always more people will buy expansion than sub - you can buy and unsub, but you cant sub and not buy (well, you technically can, but then you are playing outdated content).

Second, you say that with each player spending 15$ a month is not important, and more money comes from microtransactions. Excuse me? What exactly are people "buying"? Every single subscriber buys store pet or faction transfer every month? There is literally no way microtransactions bring more profit than subs.


The focus on microtransactions is an attempt to save some profits, not bring more of them. Being unable to keep subs Blizzard tries to milk the still subscribed to offset the losses. Microtransaction based model only works if you can bait clueless newbies into buying useless stuff for their fresh characters. Subs provide entry barrier that most gullible super casuals won't even pass over. Combining both models is the worst idea one could have.

ugh this the only reply your gonna get of me because any one who starts a reply with a statement about there opponents understanding of something isn't worth engaging with

in 3 days black ops made more than wow classic would in 3 months of sub's at 12 million players (which lets be honest there isn't a chance in hell of any MMO having double figure million player base in 2019, but were making it a fair fight against modern AAA ip by giving them the ultimate befit of the doubt)

in a month is past 1 and a half billion, and it continues to eek in a lot of money on loot boxes and post release monetizing. you discount the amount of money made on micro transactions because you don't take part in that. but people regularly buy up hundreds of thousands of wow tokens and other services a month and that + expansion sales (bfa sold 3.4 mil company's which is weak for a AAA title but the most sold wow expansion) make up the bulk of wow revenue.

to make you understand the power of micro transactions consider that in the 6moths since release fortnight as a free game made 1 billion dollars. these company's know what there doing they know what makes the most money and it isn't MMO's with no monetizing option, which is why they said the line "there are no major releases in 2019"

[MoanaLisa]

How they could possibly release sub numbers for classic specifically? There will be only one sub for both retail and classic. Releasing other stats like characters created would be extremely misleading on the other hand. There will be no way of saying how many people subbed only because of classic, even with internal data.

Internally I'm sure they will know the following things for any range of time if they care to write the SQL query:

1. How many accounts are playing both.
2. How many accounts are playing just Classic.
3. How many accounts are playing just regular WoW.

There's zero chance they'll report this. Zero. Z-E-R-O. I don't think in the last report they even split MAU for WoW out separately. They will say nice unspecific things and that is likely to be the end of it.

[Koward]

How they could possibly release sub numbers for classic specifically? There will be only one sub for both retail and classic. Releasing other stats like characters created would be extremely misleading on the other hand. There will be no way of saying how many people subbed only because of classic, even with internal data.

I really don't think you realize how powerful an analysis on customer habits, needs and usages can be.
I would even wage it is the main usage of statistics in our civilization and what funded a lot of research these past 10 years.

Not only can this (simple) question be answered, but many, many more. As well as predictions for the future.
Treating internal data is PARAMOUNT for any company (even middle-sized) and Blizzard puts a lot of effort on that (either directly or by outsourcing to another specialized company).
Think how it's important for the commercial aspect. It's not just about giving numbers for investors, it's useful for ads, for promotions, to know how many people you will need to work on the product..

[Maudib]

yes because they increase the value of those MUA's via micro transaction and token sales, as well as the big boost that comes from expansion sales.

the $15 a month sub is a trivial part of wows income in today's game. even at 12 million players wow classic would make per quarter what current and new IP's make. black ops for example made 500mil in 3 days. just on sales. that was the execs want. they don't care about a cheap re-spin of an old game that will only net them a couple hundred mil a year if it exceeds all expectations. they when IP's like over watch and black ops and hearthstone where they can milk MAU's for increasing money via micro transactions, because that model has shown to have the highest profit margins.

Just LOL. And yet Classic is coming.. it's a thing. Why again? Oh yeah, the goodness of their hearts. Bless their little altruistic hearts.

Classic WoW, is just Brexit. Bunch of dudes missing the glory of the past, all with vastly different opinions of how to get there, but ultimately heading for a World of Disappointment.

I like your sig! Considering how modern WoW zealots would know all there is to know about disappointment... it's possible you have some insight on Classic.

I guess we will soon see!

[avitush]

I doubt it. If they're not releasing sub numbers for current WoW, I imagine they'd take the same approach with Classic.

Even if Classic WoW were to completely flop (which I doubt it will), anything that even remotely looks like an "I told you so!" line from Blizzard would accomplish nothing except pissing people off (and it'd open the door for people to scream that it only flopped because Blizzard changed things, because one blade of grass in Mulgore didn't look exactly like it did in 2004, etc). It'd just be bad PR, which is not something Blizzard wants.

They might use "Classic WoW had fewer/more players than expected" or other stuff along those lines, which is pretty much the same thing they've been doing with live WoW since they stopped releasing sub numbers.

[Monster Hunter]

Just LOL. And yet Classic is coming.. it's a thing. Why again? Oh yeah, the goodness of their hearts. Bless their little altruistic hearts.





I like your sig! Considering how modern WoW zealots would know all there is to know about disappointment... it's possible you have some insight on Classic.

I guess we will soon see!

Well yea we will see. And I'm betting just like brexit, it'll be nothing but complaints that it's not there hard classic or soft classic, You already have to look at the classic forum to see the same level of division on what classic means, and who you think right isn't as important as the fact most of you will be disappointed.

I don't like modern wow, I also don't like classic. So I'm no zelot for modern wow ragging on the little passion project. I'm just the dude being the stake in reality that says you can't turn back time, classic won't be vanilla, and even if every wow player who quit came back it still wouldn't be a front line ip with what blizz and Activision are looking for to milk out of there MAU's

This thread gives in indication about increased value of MAU's over number of MAU' s
https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...-a-race-change

WoW has currently substantialy less subs now than it had at its peak, yet according to the investor reports is just as profitable and some years more so when they introduced boosts and services.

[Maudib]

WoW has currently substantialy less subs now than it had at its peak, yet according to the investor reports is just as profitable and some years more so when they introduced boosts and services.

So.. with less subs spending more per customer... increasing subs has the potential to make the game more profitable than ever? Yep, that's what I'm thinking too! Great minds and all that!

[Monster Hunter]

So.. with less subs spending more per customer... increasing subs has the potential to make the game more profitable than ever? Yep, that's what I'm thinking too! Great minds and all that!

you don't make anything but the sub of classic player's thats the problem. and what im getting out, you cant increase the value of the MAU's from quarter to quarter or get profit boosts out of them on demand with sale's.

classic MAU's are dead MAU's compared to Retail, Overwatch and hearthstone MAU's. you cant milk them for mounts, tokens, boosts, race changes, faction changes, pet's, packs, loot boxes. etc. etc.

people who dont buy into that really under estimate how much of the profit % that makes up. even at blizz who's pretty light compared to EA on microing the players. but put it this way a whole 50% of EA's total revenue comes from post release mico transactions.

and this comes to my point.

if wow classic becomes more popular than retail, and the high ups see that, what do you think there first demand is going to be ?

how to we get more value out of them.

and you know what that means........... blizz shop and char services.

and if the devs resist then it will be why are you sucking potaential MAU's from games we can milk ?

the only way classic can servive is if it stays under the radar,

12mil subs is fucking small change in 2019. this isnt the 2004 gaming market anymore, blizz is a billion dollar company and those exec's want big margins, i worked at a big billion dollar company for year's i have seen more than my fair share of projects that would have turned a profit canned because it was "small fry" all the high ups will see classic as if they get sight on it, is a few engineers that could be working on a new multi billion dollar IP that will jump the share price.

and this assuming wow classic can pull what it used to, eod a lot of classic players moved on for more reasons than just not liking the game, i mean fuck at least a few thousand are dead by statistics, god knows how many were Chinese gold farmers and bots, and god knows how many just got sick of MMO's because the whole market caved along side wow. so were giving wow classic a huge benefit of the doubt assuming it hits back to its peak.

but even at 12 million which was a smash hit in 2004, 12 mil is a flop by 2019 AAA standards. BF5 shifted 13-14mil copy's in a couple of months https://seekingalpha.com/article/422...les-disappoint

and that was disappointing ^

were in a whole different world and standard of successful in 2019 than we were in 2004 and execs want 2019 successful not 2004 successful.

[Armourboy]

you don't make anything but the sub of classic player's thats the problem. and what im getting out, you cant increase the value of the MAU's from quarter to quarter or get profit boosts out of them on demand with sale's.

classic MAU's are dead MAU's compared to Retail, Overwatch and hearthstone MAU's. you cant milk them for mounts, tokens, boosts, race changes, faction changes, pet's, packs, loot boxes. etc. etc.

people who dont buy into that really under estimate how much of the profit % that makes up. even at blizz who's pretty light compared to EA on microing the players. but put it this way a whole 50% of EA's total revenue comes from post release mico transactions.

and this comes to my point.

if wow classic becomes more popular than retail, and the high ups see that, what do you think there first demand is going to be ?

how to we get more value out of them.

and you know what that means........... blizz shop and char services.

and if the devs resist then it will be why are you sucking potaential MAU's from games we can milk ?

the only way classic can servive is if it stays under the radar,

12mil subs is fucking small change in 2019. this isnt the 2004 gaming market anymore, blizz is a billion dollar company and those exec's want big margins, i worked at a big billion dollar company for year's i have seen more than my fair share of projects that would have turned a profit canned because it was "small fry" all the high ups will see classic as if they get sight on it, is a few engineers that could be working on a new multi billion dollar IP that will jump the share price.

and this assuming wow classic can pull what it used to, eod a lot of classic players moved on for more reasons than just not liking the game, i mean fuck at least a few thousand are dead by statistics, god knows how many were Chinese gold farmers and bots, and god knows how many just got sick of MMO's because the whole market caved along side wow. so were giving wow classic a huge benefit of the doubt assuming it hits back to its peak.

but even at 12 million which was a smash hit in 2004, 12 mil is a flop by 2019 AAA standards. BF5 shifted 13-14mil copy's in a couple of months https://seekingalpha.com/article/422...les-disappoint

and that was disappointing ^

were in a whole different world and standard of successful in 2019 than we were in 2004 and execs want 2019 successful not 2004 successful.

Blizzard is banking on some of those players checking out retail at some point, there is a reason they are offering both for the same sub.

[Monster Hunter]

Blizzard is banking on some of those players checking out retail at some point, there is a reason they are offering both for the same sub.

Exactly. They see it as players funneled through there launcher which means they can be targeted with ads. Which means they can entice them away from classic into hearthstone, overwatch, retail, e.t.c where they can be better milked.

Problem is. If maudib's let's be honest Completly wacko prediction of several million subs, I'd be heavily surprised if an MMO ever broke above 5 million again, we have to face the fact most people see MMOs as a waste of time, but that's a side topic, but if his crazy prediction is correct. A growth in MAU's in the several million Corrisponds to classic, and the cross polination isn't showing then blizzard will look to find ways of upping the value of those MAU's with monotizing. Raw subs don't generate the revinue blizzard is looking for in 2019. And are much harder to manipulate for quarterly growth and bumping like an expansion release, new shop mount or a sale.

And if classic steals to many MAU's from a monotized product, then you can bet your left testicle classic will get canned faster than a gillet razor at a mgtow convention.

This ship sales on retail staying stable in revenue, small growth in other ips and being niche and supportive of the current blizzard eco system.

[Vulf]

I'd be very surprised (and somewhat concerned) if Blizzard came out and talked about Classic player metric details. I can't see why a publicly traded company would do such a thing.

I'm sure we'll eventually get a some kind of "success statement" from the devs, but I very much doubt it will be specific. It'll be most likely focused on the next steps like if the project is successful: "The team is looking into possibilities of being able to release The Burning Crusade in a manner similar to Classic" or if it's not: The team is reevaluating the launch but at the moment we don't have anything to announce".

Talking about specific player metrics (like subscribers, MAUs etc) outside investor calls could easily be misinterpreted and taken as forward looking financial statements - and that's not something you want to promise to your investors - especially if you're publicly traded company with SEC oversight.

I replied to this on another thread. If they only do sharding at the initial release as they have professed, you could make classic population assessments based on the populations of the servers during realm selection ( low, med, high). It won't be a perfect science, but you could at least assess the direction of the trend.

[Whistl3r]

I think the OP is trying to hard to be edgy and desperately wants to be right. There is no best or worst version of wow apart from in the eyes of self important idiots on the internet who have to be right. Classic is a passion project for those who made it, those who played it and even those who've heard about it. The numbers are not that important, enough will play to justify its existence and thats all that matters. Threads like this serve no purpose and are very uninteresting.