View Poll Results: Release sub numbers of classic eventually?

Voters
174. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, eventually

    24 13.79%
  • No, never

    150 86.21%
Page 11 of 11 FirstFirst ...
9
10
11
  1. #201
    Moderator MoanaLisa's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Metachronopolis
    Posts
    26,861
    Quote Originally Posted by Rafoel View Post
    How they could possibly release sub numbers for classic specifically? There will be only one sub for both retail and classic. Releasing other stats like characters created would be extremely misleading on the other hand. There will be no way of saying how many people subbed only because of classic, even with internal data.
    Internally I'm sure they will know the following things for any range of time if they care to write the SQL query:

    1. How many accounts are playing both.
    2. How many accounts are playing just Classic.
    3. How many accounts are playing just regular WoW.

    There's zero chance they'll report this. Zero. Z-E-R-O. I don't think in the last report they even split MAU for WoW out separately. They will say nice unspecific things and that is likely to be the end of it.
    Last edited by MoanaLisa; 2019-03-18 at 01:31 AM.
    To contact global moderators with moderation issues please PM any of the following:
    Tziva ■ Radux ■ Simca ■ Elysia ■ Zaelsino ■ xskarma ■ Arlee ■ Venara
    Issues specific to WoW General Discussions/BfA/Classic can be sent to any forum moderator or globals.
    Please report problem posts. Site rules can be found here.

    Mars is the only known planet inhabited solely by robots.

  2. #202
    Quote Originally Posted by Rafoel View Post
    How they could possibly release sub numbers for classic specifically? There will be only one sub for both retail and classic. Releasing other stats like characters created would be extremely misleading on the other hand. There will be no way of saying how many people subbed only because of classic, even with internal data.
    I really don't think you realize how powerful an analysis on customer habits, needs and usages can be.
    I would even wage it is the main usage of statistics in our civilization and what funded a lot of research these past 10 years.

    Not only can this (simple) question be answered, but many, many more. As well as predictions for the future.
    Treating internal data is PARAMOUNT for any company (even middle-sized) and Blizzard puts a lot of effort on that (either directly or by outsourcing to another specialized company).
    Think how it's important for the commercial aspect. It's not just about giving numbers for investors, it's useful for ads, for promotions, to know how many people you will need to work on the product..

  3. #203
    Quote Originally Posted by Monster Hunter View Post
    yes because they increase the value of those MUA's via micro transaction and token sales, as well as the big boost that comes from expansion sales.

    the $15 a month sub is a trivial part of wows income in today's game. even at 12 million players wow classic would make per quarter what current and new IP's make. black ops for example made 500mil in 3 days. just on sales. that was the execs want. they don't care about a cheap re-spin of an old game that will only net them a couple hundred mil a year if it exceeds all expectations. they when IP's like over watch and black ops and hearthstone where they can milk MAU's for increasing money via micro transactions, because that model has shown to have the highest profit margins.
    Just LOL. And yet Classic is coming.. it's a thing. Why again? Oh yeah, the goodness of their hearts. Bless their little altruistic hearts.


    Classic WoW, is just Brexit. Bunch of dudes missing the glory of the past, all with vastly different opinions of how to get there, but ultimately heading for a World of Disappointment.

    I like your sig! Considering how modern WoW zealots would know all there is to know about disappointment... it's possible you have some insight on Classic.

    I guess we will soon see!
    "Forgetting your roots will only lead you further from sweet home."

  4. #204
    Mechagnome Cidzor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2018
    Location
    Right behind you
    Posts
    551
    I doubt it. If they're not releasing sub numbers for current WoW, I imagine they'd take the same approach with Classic.

    Even if Classic WoW were to completely flop (which I doubt it will), anything that even remotely looks like an "I told you so!" line from Blizzard would accomplish nothing except pissing people off (and it'd open the door for people to scream that it only flopped because Blizzard changed things, because one blade of grass in Mulgore didn't look exactly like it did in 2004, etc). It'd just be bad PR, which is not something Blizzard wants.

    They might use "Classic WoW had fewer/more players than expected" or other stuff along those lines, which is pretty much the same thing they've been doing with live WoW since they stopped releasing sub numbers.

  5. #205
    The Lightbringer Daish's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    3,354
    classic is going to be dead servers there will be no reason to release sub numbers

  6. #206
    Bloodsail Admiral Monster Hunter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Location
    Astera
    Posts
    1,217
    Quote Originally Posted by Maudib View Post
    Just LOL. And yet Classic is coming.. it's a thing. Why again? Oh yeah, the goodness of their hearts. Bless their little altruistic hearts.





    I like your sig! Considering how modern WoW zealots would know all there is to know about disappointment... it's possible you have some insight on Classic.

    I guess we will soon see!
    Well yea we will see. And I'm betting just like brexit, it'll be nothing but complaints that it's not there hard classic or soft classic, You already have to look at the classic forum to see the same level of division on what classic means, and who you think right isn't as important as the fact most of you will be disappointed.

    I don't like modern wow, I also don't like classic. So I'm no zelot for modern wow ragging on the little passion project. I'm just the dude being the stake in reality that says you can't turn back time, classic won't be vanilla, and even if every wow player who quit came back it still wouldn't be a front line ip with what blizz and Activision are looking for to milk out of there MAU's

    This thread gives in indication about increased value of MAU's over number of MAU' s
    https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...-a-race-change

    WoW has currently substantialy less subs now than it had at its peak, yet according to the investor reports is just as profitable and some years more so when they introduced boosts and services.
    Last edited by Monster Hunter; 2019-03-18 at 07:49 PM.
    Classic WoW, is just Brexit. Bunch of dudes missing the glory of the past, all with vastly different opinions of how to get there, but ultimately heading for a World of Disappointment.

  7. #207
    I'd be very surprised (and somewhat concerned) if Blizzard came out and talked about Classic player metric details. I can't see why a publicly traded company would do such a thing.

    I'm sure we'll eventually get a some kind of "success statement" from the devs, but I very much doubt it will be specific. It'll be most likely focused on the next steps like if the project is successful: "The team is looking into possibilities of being able to release The Burning Crusade in a manner similar to Classic" or if it's not: The team is reevaluating the launch but at the moment we don't have anything to announce".

    Talking about specific player metrics (like subscribers, MAUs etc) outside investor calls could easily be misinterpreted and taken as forward looking financial statements - and that's not something you want to promise to your investors - especially if you're publicly traded company with SEC oversight.

  8. #208
    Quote Originally Posted by Monster Hunter View Post
    WoW has currently substantialy less subs now than it had at its peak, yet according to the investor reports is just as profitable and some years more so when they introduced boosts and services.
    So.. with less subs spending more per customer... increasing subs has the potential to make the game more profitable than ever? Yep, that's what I'm thinking too! Great minds and all that!
    "Forgetting your roots will only lead you further from sweet home."

  9. #209
    Bloodsail Admiral Monster Hunter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Location
    Astera
    Posts
    1,217
    Quote Originally Posted by Maudib View Post
    So.. with less subs spending more per customer... increasing subs has the potential to make the game more profitable than ever? Yep, that's what I'm thinking too! Great minds and all that!
    you don't make anything but the sub of classic player's thats the problem. and what im getting out, you cant increase the value of the MAU's from quarter to quarter or get profit boosts out of them on demand with sale's.

    classic MAU's are dead MAU's compared to Retail, Overwatch and hearthstone MAU's. you cant milk them for mounts, tokens, boosts, race changes, faction changes, pet's, packs, loot boxes. etc. etc.

    people who dont buy into that really under estimate how much of the profit % that makes up. even at blizz who's pretty light compared to EA on microing the players. but put it this way a whole 50% of EA's total revenue comes from post release mico transactions.

    and this comes to my point.

    if wow classic becomes more popular than retail, and the high ups see that, what do you think there first demand is going to be ?

    how to we get more value out of them.

    and you know what that means........... blizz shop and char services.

    and if the devs resist then it will be why are you sucking potaential MAU's from games we can milk ?

    the only way classic can servive is if it stays under the radar,

    12mil subs is fucking small change in 2019. this isnt the 2004 gaming market anymore, blizz is a billion dollar company and those exec's want big margins, i worked at a big billion dollar company for year's i have seen more than my fair share of projects that would have turned a profit canned because it was "small fry" all the high ups will see classic as if they get sight on it, is a few engineers that could be working on a new multi billion dollar IP that will jump the share price.

    and this assuming wow classic can pull what it used to, eod a lot of classic players moved on for more reasons than just not liking the game, i mean fuck at least a few thousand are dead by statistics, god knows how many were Chinese gold farmers and bots, and god knows how many just got sick of MMO's because the whole market caved along side wow. so were giving wow classic a huge benefit of the doubt assuming it hits back to its peak.

    but even at 12 million which was a smash hit in 2004, 12 mil is a flop by 2019 AAA standards. BF5 shifted 13-14mil copy's in a couple of months https://seekingalpha.com/article/422...les-disappoint

    and that was disappointing ^

    were in a whole different world and standard of successful in 2019 than we were in 2004 and execs want 2019 successful not 2004 successful.
    Classic WoW, is just Brexit. Bunch of dudes missing the glory of the past, all with vastly different opinions of how to get there, but ultimately heading for a World of Disappointment.

  10. #210
    Quote Originally Posted by Monster Hunter View Post
    you don't make anything but the sub of classic player's thats the problem. and what im getting out, you cant increase the value of the MAU's from quarter to quarter or get profit boosts out of them on demand with sale's.

    classic MAU's are dead MAU's compared to Retail, Overwatch and hearthstone MAU's. you cant milk them for mounts, tokens, boosts, race changes, faction changes, pet's, packs, loot boxes. etc. etc.

    people who dont buy into that really under estimate how much of the profit % that makes up. even at blizz who's pretty light compared to EA on microing the players. but put it this way a whole 50% of EA's total revenue comes from post release mico transactions.

    and this comes to my point.

    if wow classic becomes more popular than retail, and the high ups see that, what do you think there first demand is going to be ?

    how to we get more value out of them.

    and you know what that means........... blizz shop and char services.

    and if the devs resist then it will be why are you sucking potaential MAU's from games we can milk ?

    the only way classic can servive is if it stays under the radar,

    12mil subs is fucking small change in 2019. this isnt the 2004 gaming market anymore, blizz is a billion dollar company and those exec's want big margins, i worked at a big billion dollar company for year's i have seen more than my fair share of projects that would have turned a profit canned because it was "small fry" all the high ups will see classic as if they get sight on it, is a few engineers that could be working on a new multi billion dollar IP that will jump the share price.

    and this assuming wow classic can pull what it used to, eod a lot of classic players moved on for more reasons than just not liking the game, i mean fuck at least a few thousand are dead by statistics, god knows how many were Chinese gold farmers and bots, and god knows how many just got sick of MMO's because the whole market caved along side wow. so were giving wow classic a huge benefit of the doubt assuming it hits back to its peak.

    but even at 12 million which was a smash hit in 2004, 12 mil is a flop by 2019 AAA standards. BF5 shifted 13-14mil copy's in a couple of months https://seekingalpha.com/article/422...les-disappoint

    and that was disappointing ^

    were in a whole different world and standard of successful in 2019 than we were in 2004 and execs want 2019 successful not 2004 successful.
    Blizzard is banking on some of those players checking out retail at some point, there is a reason they are offering both for the same sub.

  11. #211
    Bloodsail Admiral Monster Hunter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Location
    Astera
    Posts
    1,217
    Quote Originally Posted by Armourboy View Post
    Blizzard is banking on some of those players checking out retail at some point, there is a reason they are offering both for the same sub.
    Exactly. They see it as players funneled through there launcher which means they can be targeted with ads. Which means they can entice them away from classic into hearthstone, overwatch, retail, e.t.c where they can be better milked.

    Problem is. If maudib's let's be honest Completly wacko prediction of several million subs, I'd be heavily surprised if an MMO ever broke above 5 million again, we have to face the fact most people see MMOs as a waste of time, but that's a side topic, but if his crazy prediction is correct. A growth in MAU's in the several million Corrisponds to classic, and the cross polination isn't showing then blizzard will look to find ways of upping the value of those MAU's with monotizing. Raw subs don't generate the revinue blizzard is looking for in 2019. And are much harder to manipulate for quarterly growth and bumping like an expansion release, new shop mount or a sale.

    And if classic steals to many MAU's from a monotized product, then you can bet your left testicle classic will get canned faster than a gillet razor at a mgtow convention.

    This ship sales on retail staying stable in revenue, small growth in other ips and being niche and supportive of the current blizzard eco system.
    Classic WoW, is just Brexit. Bunch of dudes missing the glory of the past, all with vastly different opinions of how to get there, but ultimately heading for a World of Disappointment.

  12. #212
    Quote Originally Posted by Greyscale View Post
    I'd be very surprised (and somewhat concerned) if Blizzard came out and talked about Classic player metric details. I can't see why a publicly traded company would do such a thing.

    I'm sure we'll eventually get a some kind of "success statement" from the devs, but I very much doubt it will be specific. It'll be most likely focused on the next steps like if the project is successful: "The team is looking into possibilities of being able to release The Burning Crusade in a manner similar to Classic" or if it's not: The team is reevaluating the launch but at the moment we don't have anything to announce".

    Talking about specific player metrics (like subscribers, MAUs etc) outside investor calls could easily be misinterpreted and taken as forward looking financial statements - and that's not something you want to promise to your investors - especially if you're publicly traded company with SEC oversight.
    I replied to this on another thread. If they only do sharding at the initial release as they have professed, you could make classic population assessments based on the populations of the servers during realm selection ( low, med, high). It won't be a perfect science, but you could at least assess the direction of the trend.

  13. #213
    High Overlord Whistl3r's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Location
    Norwich, UK
    Posts
    180
    I think the OP is trying to hard to be edgy and desperately wants to be right. There is no best or worst version of wow apart from in the eyes of self important idiots on the internet who have to be right. Classic is a passion project for those who made it, those who played it and even those who've heard about it. The numbers are not that important, enough will play to justify its existence and thats all that matters. Threads like this serve no purpose and are very uninteresting.

  14. #214
    Moderator MoanaLisa's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Metachronopolis
    Posts
    26,861
    Quote Originally Posted by Vulf View Post
    I replied to this on another thread. If they only do sharding at the initial release as they have professed, you could make classic population assessments based on the populations of the servers during realm selection ( low, med, high). It won't be a perfect science, but you could at least assess the direction of the trend.
    Their current infrastructure allows them to reset realm capacities overnight if need be. Therefore high pop realms can go to low without any real change in population. They have done this several times. I think that the metric you suggest will be very unreliable for determining anything.
    To contact global moderators with moderation issues please PM any of the following:
    Tziva ■ Radux ■ Simca ■ Elysia ■ Zaelsino ■ xskarma ■ Arlee ■ Venara
    Issues specific to WoW General Discussions/BfA/Classic can be sent to any forum moderator or globals.
    Please report problem posts. Site rules can be found here.

    Mars is the only known planet inhabited solely by robots.

  15. #215
    Quote Originally Posted by Monster Hunter View Post
    you don't make anything but the sub of classic player's thats the problem. and what im getting out, you cant increase the value of the MAU's from quarter to quarter or get profit boosts out of them on demand with sale's.

    12mil subs is fucking small change in 2019.
    were in a whole different world and standard of successful in 2019 than we were in 2004 and execs want 2019 successful not 2004 successful.
    But just like Blizzard is giving 4 free days to ANYONE to play BfA... the idea is to get them to sub/race change/server transfer/etc. Of course they expect that a percentage of Classic players will also play BfA and convert to all the post sub purchases.

    You seem to think that Classic isn't a profitable thing... why would this hugely successful company make such a blunder? Or maybe, just maybe, they know/understand their business better than you do?

    Maybe they can see the benefits from varying angles that you simply haven't considered?

    It's all good man... I agree with you in many ways... I personally believe that for the very reasons you listed, modern WoW's days are limited... too much cost, not enough ROI... but Classic is a different beast... it's dirt cheap to produce... and despite you decrying maybe 60-100 million a month revenue... a billion a year revenue is a lot of money... especially if it costs next to nothing to produce.
    "Forgetting your roots will only lead you further from sweet home."

  16. #216
    It's the same subscription as retail.

    The only stats you would get are how many people downloading and logging into Classic, and that number will be bloated by all the Retail players who have access to Classic and just wish to check it out but not play more than a month's worth.

    So you may as well call that a WoW subscription number than a Classic or Retail one.

  17. #217
    Bloodsail Admiral Monster Hunter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Location
    Astera
    Posts
    1,217
    Quote Originally Posted by Maudib View Post
    But just like Blizzard is giving 4 free days to ANYONE to play BfA... the idea is to get them to sub/race change/server transfer/etc. Of course they expect that a percentage of Classic players will also play BfA and convert to all the post sub purchases.

    You seem to think that Classic isn't a profitable thing... why would this hugely successful company make such a blunder? Or maybe, just maybe, they know/understand their business better than you do?

    Maybe they can see the benefits from varying angles that you simply haven't considered?

    It's all good man... I agree with you in many ways... I personally believe that for the very reasons you listed, modern WoW's days are limited... too much cost, not enough ROI... but Classic is a different beast... it's dirt cheap to produce... and despite you decrying maybe 60-100 million a month revenue... a billion a year revenue is a lot of money... especially if it costs next to nothing to produce.
    You would think that. But having worked at big company's that have passed off on twice those margins "because its to small for them" I have to be very pessimistic here. Its clear internally classic isn't a big project, and it's not even reported on in the quarterly financials or advertised to them.

    But as the free 4 days shows in a ways the sub fee isnt what they care about. It's people buying all the extra stuff, and wow classic just doesn't have any way to monotize it without players crossing over to retail or it nolonger being classic.

    I've sat in to many board room meetings to have an optimism that blizzard is any different than any other big American company and the staff they sacked off in a "record year" confirms that above the lowest management layer if they see classic as a threat the the microtransaction milk machine, then they will force it to comply or can it.

    Eod classic get 12 mil subs, means fuck all when they can drop something like overwatch 2 or something like that for 15 to 20 mil MAU's buying hundreds of pounds of loot boxes.

    It's like Microsoft opening a sandwich shop, yea it's profitable but isn't the margins the investors are looking for at this size of company.
    Classic WoW, is just Brexit. Bunch of dudes missing the glory of the past, all with vastly different opinions of how to get there, but ultimately heading for a World of Disappointment.

  18. #218
    Neckbeards are not the mainstream playerbase. So, no.

  19. #219
    Mechagnome
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    New Zealand
    Posts
    532
    Quote Originally Posted by MoanaLisa View Post
    It seems really unlikely. I can't imagine why they would. There will be a drop-off after launch--I don't care what anyone else says--and then they've set a precedent. Additonally the subs are the same for Classic/Retail so if they're not reporting it now they won't report it then.

    It would be great if everyone got it through their skulls that ATVI isn't using this as a metric any longer. No one else does in the gaming industry so why should they? It's really simple but people just can't let it go I guess.

    If I had to bet you will never again here a word from Blizzard Entertainment about how many people are actively subscribed to any of their games.

    The idea that they will do this to deliberately slap-in-the-face the "You think you do but you don't" crowd is one of the most moronic 12-year-old-inspired ideas that I've read here recently. Just dumb. Businesses don't work that way. It's unprofessional and the sort of thing that angsty teenagers do in a fit of emotion.

    Why the FUCK would any game company do that? Just why? It pisses me off no end that anyone thinks the adults in the room at Blizzard Entertainment entertain thoughts like this. Jesus Christ.

    Blizzard's agenda is to make money. Generate revenue. Create games that are profitable. They aren't waiting in secret getting ready to point at their customers, yell HA-HA! LOSERS! and tell them to fuck off.

    This post is great - perfectly encapsulates everything that was running through my mind when I read the OP. So glad that someone else already wrote it, and I don't have to. Bravo!

  20. #220
    Releasing the sub numbers would be like the post-mortem after a US presidential election. The winners claim they have a mandate from the voters, the centrist losers argue they lost because they weren't centrist enough, the extremist losers argue they lost because they weren't extreme enough; but in the end people use the results to try to justify their previously-held beliefs even though there really isn't enough data to argue cause and effect.
    Reminders of what vanilla was like: https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...nilla-was-like

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •