Thread: Joe Biden- why?

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  1. #501
    Quote Originally Posted by Hobb View Post
    How so?

    Right now The Hill shows in a general election poll Biden wining by 13 points, 53% vs 40%.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...-national-poll

    Even when all polls are averaged in they all show Biden beating Trump by a large margin, this including the conservative Fox and Rasmussen polls.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html
    People being polled is very important. On top of that being the early front runner as a challenger is almost always a kiss of death. His numbers will drop as the dems start facing off against each other. Another reason polls are insanely misleading even if yiu have a balanced source is we don't elect based on popular vote. If Biden or any other challenger cant win a handful of specific swing states or flip red states it doesn't matter.
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  2. #502
    Because Politics, that's why

  3. #503
    The Unstoppable Force cubby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alvito View Post
    People being polled is very important. On top of that being the early front runner as a challenger is almost always a kiss of death. His numbers will drop as the dems start facing off against each other. Another reason polls are insanely misleading even if yiu have a balanced source is we don't elect based on popular vote. If Biden or any other challenger cant win a handful of specific swing states or flip red states it doesn't matter.
    Exactly. While the polling was accurate down the line in 2016, including for margin of error, it continually changed as Trump got closer and closer. Paying attention to polls right now, this early, is beyond stupid.

    The Dems need to get out there and talk about jobs and healthcare and taxes and forget everything else.

    And agreed - our electoral system is so fucked up we don't even use a popular vote. So a national poll is double useless.
    The less you know, the more you believe.

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  4. #504
    Quote Originally Posted by kaid View Post
    Bernie had an easier time when he was the only alternative to hillary.
    I completely agree with everything you said. I actually been taking it one step further, in saying if Warren or any one else remotely credible ran against Hillary, Sanders would be as known as he was for the 30 years in government, before being the only challenger to Hillary.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by RewindGuild View Post
    Because Politics, that's why
    If I were a hacker, I would make it my goal to change every reply in the politics forum be “because politics”. I’m not even being a jerk, I think it would be pretty funny.
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  5. #505
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  6. #506
    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    Exactly. While the polling was accurate down the line in 2016, including for margin of error, it continually changed as Trump got closer and closer. Paying attention to polls right now, this early, is beyond stupid.

    The Dems need to get out there and talk about jobs and healthcare and taxes and forget everything else.

    And agreed - our electoral system is so fucked up we don't even use a popular vote. So a national poll is double useless.
    While polling this far out is not really important just talking to folks in your area gives you a better idea of how the overall mood of the nation is. This was telling during the previous election and is no different for the coming election either. My brother kept telling me over and over that Trump is speaking truth to the underclass of folks and i ignored the possibility as i felt that people would see past his crazy claims and the mocking a disabled person ruined his chances but it enforced the idea that people do not care unless it hurts them in the financial sense. That should not happen again but i wont hold my breath either.

  7. #507
    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    I completely agree with everything you said. I actually been taking it one step further, in saying if Warren or any one else remotely credible ran against Hillary, Sanders would be as known as he was for the 30 years in government, before being the only challenger to Hillary.
    In further support of this argument...

    Elizabeth Warren leaped ahead of Bernie Sanders into second place in a pair of Democratic presidential primary polls released Wednesday.

    Warren has overtaken Sanders nationally, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll, which puts the Massachusetts senator ahead of her Vermont counterpart 16 percent to 12 percent. Former Vice President Joe Biden still leads all contenders with 26 percent support.

    Warren also polls ahead of Sanders in Nevada, where Democrats will caucus next February after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary. Biden leads the first Monmouth poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers in Nevada with 36 percent support, followed by Warren at 19 percent and Sanders at 13 percent.

    “Nevada’s highly unionized service sector workforce may be a good fit for Warren’s policy platform when you look at the Democratic electorates in the four early states,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “However, she is nowhere near the top tier in terms of candidate preferences among Latino and black voters, who make up a significant part of the party’s base here.”

    National polling averages still show Sanders running significantly ahead of Warren. But Warren’s vote share has generally ticked up over the past month or two amid a flurry of policy rollouts and a strong organizing presence in early voting states.

    ---

    In the Economist/YouGov survey, Warren’s net favorability is slighter higher than Sanders’, -6 percent to -7 percent, but Sanders is tied with New York Mayor Bill de Blasio for the candidate whom likely Democratic voters would be most disappointed to see win the nomination.

    Twenty-percent of respondents said it would disappoint them if Sanders or de Blasio won the Democratic nomination for president. Nineteen percent said the same of Biden. Only 9 percent said they would be disappointed if Warren won the nomination.
    Bolded for emphasis. Metrics like this are important to account for especially in FPTP systems where people have to vote strategically - while it's only one poll, if this holds up elsewhere it's somewhat interesting that both Sanders *and* Biden are as offensive to as many Democrats as Bill de Blasio.

  8. #508
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Bolded for emphasis. Metrics like this are important to account for especially in FPTP systems where people have to vote strategically - while it's only one poll, if this holds up elsewhere it's somewhat interesting that both Sanders *and* Biden are as offensive to as many Democrats as Bill de Blasio.
    If Warren wins the nomination I wonder how many times Trump will say Pocahontas in the general election.

    But also, if dirt Trump has on her is that she overestimated how native american she was then that's not a good sign for Trump.

  9. #509
    Quote Originally Posted by Wyrt View Post
    If Warren wins the nomination I wonder how many times Trump will say Pocahontas in the general election.

    But also, if dirt Trump has on her is that she overestimated how native american she was then that's not a good sign for Trump.
    Part of me wants to see her win the nomination if only because I am dying to see a Trump versus Warren debate.

  10. #510
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Part of me wants to see her win the nomination if only because I am dying to see a Trump versus Warren debate.
    "We need to regulate the banks so we do not have another 2008 financial crisis"
    "POCAHONTAS!!!!!"

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  11. #511
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    Exactly. While the polling was accurate down the line in 2016, including for margin of error, it continually changed as Trump got closer and closer. Paying attention to polls right now, this early, is beyond stupid.

    The Dems need to get out there and talk about jobs and healthcare and taxes and forget everything else.

    And agreed - our electoral system is so fucked up we don't even use a popular vote. So a national poll is double useless.
    Saw a news atory that warren was rising while biden fell a bit. Beto should drop out and retool his immigration stance and go against coyrn. He damn near got cruz. Coyrn could be next. As for the rest. I'll play the eait and see game.
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  12. #512
    The new YouGov poll spells trouble for Bernie as he falls to third place behind Biden and Warren. Warren is chipping from Bernie.
    Your problem is that you’re more concerned about being precisely, factually, and semantically correct than about being morally right.

  13. #513
    Quote Originally Posted by Rainbow Capitalist View Post
    The new YouGov poll spells trouble for Bernie as he falls to third place behind Biden and Warren. Warren is chipping from Bernie.
    Is this surprising? To me the bigger story is the failure of the other more centrist candidates to break any significant amount of support away from Biden.
    "As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
    -H.L. Mencken, 1920

  14. #514
    Quote Originally Posted by Gestopft View Post
    Is this surprising? To me the bigger story is the failure of the other more centrist candidates to break any significant amount of support away from Biden.
    Yeah it's surprising. Warren didn't look like that serious of a candidate a few weeks ago when she was polling below Beto.

  15. #515
    Over 9000! Vash The Stampede's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rainbow Capitalist View Post
    The new YouGov poll spells trouble for Bernie as he falls to third place behind Biden and Warren. Warren is chipping from Bernie.
    Isn't that poll favoring the oldest of voters?

  16. #516
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash The Stampede View Post
    Isn't that poll favoring the oldest of voters?
    Most polls do because old people tend to vote every election and young people are flakey as fuck.

  17. #517
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wyrt View Post
    Most polls do because old people tend to vote every election and young people are flakey as fuck.
    Then that's about as accurate as when they polled Americans and found that Hillary was not only winning but winning by a landslide. The polls are just propaganda that doesn't work. You know anything about Joe Biden because I don't know jack about him, other than that he was Obama's shadow. A creepy shadow at that. I don't know his policies, or what he plans to do.

  18. #518
    Quote Originally Posted by Vash The Stampede View Post
    Then that's about as accurate as when they polled Americans and found that Hillary was not only winning but winning by a landslide. The polls are just propaganda that doesn't work. You know anything about Joe Biden because I don't know jack about him, other than that he was Obama's shadow. A creepy shadow at that. I don't know his policies, or what he plans to do.
    That sounds like a problem you should resolve. If you don't know someone's policies, maybe you should look them up. I mean, it's one thing to not know the policies of a political newcomer, but Biden has been around since the last ice age, and was VP.

    https://www.ontheissues.org/Joe_Biden.htm
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    Multiculturalism hurts and kills. This happened before Trump and it would be happening without him. Racism arises from a multicultural society. If we were monocultural, people would not see issues through the lens of race.
    This is a poster saying that people are at fault for being the victims of terrorism, because they are not white.

  19. #519
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machismo View Post
    That sounds like a problem you should resolve. If you don't know someone's policies, maybe you should look them up. I mean, it's one thing to not know the policies of a political newcomer, but Biden has been around since the last ice age, and was VP.

    https://www.ontheissues.org/Joe_Biden.htm
    At least you provided a list of stuff he supports. Lets see here. Gotta love there's a section on the very top about abortion rights, as if that matters. Off to a good start I see. He doesn't support "Medicare for All" it seems. He's in favor of corporations, like Hillary. Nothing about student loan debt. What is this, theater? Civil Rights, Crime, and Drugs? Where's the meat and potatoes? This guy is just Hillary with a penis. Nobody is voting for this guy except the corporations who made up that poll.

    Democrats are their own worst enemy it seems.

  20. #520
    The Unstoppable Force Ghostpanther's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash The Stampede View Post
    Then that's about as accurate as when they polled Americans and found that Hillary was not only winning but winning by a landslide. The polls are just propaganda that doesn't work. You know anything about Joe Biden because I don't know jack about him, other than that he was Obama's shadow. A creepy shadow at that. I don't know his policies, or what he plans to do.
    Basically Obama 2.0. If you liked Obama's policies, you should like Biden. Biden also has that smooth smile and a elderly appearance of experience going for him. A Big Daddy will give us what we want for the Democrat party.
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