Predict the Ticket!

[Bodakane]

Now that the first round of debates are over, predict the Dem ticket for president.

I think it is going to come down between Warren and Harris, tbh. I think both will want Castro for their running mate.

But I'm going Warren/Castro as my guess.

[Benggaul]

I realize Biden might not be as popular on these forums, but I think it would be foolish to completely dismiss him as a contender considering his nationwide numbers. He's still the frontrunner right now and I honestly don't see that changing anytime soon. I mentioned it in a different thread sometime last year, but I'm pretty sure "boring" and "middle of the road" are going to win out in 2020 as the people in the States try to take a break from batshit insane politics and policies.

I don't think Bernie has a shot at all and that's thanks in large part to the "Bernie Bros". Most Dems aren't going to forgive them their spite votes in 2016 and, as can be seen in these very forums, some fraction of their number are just plain insufferable in their zeal. His support is suffering/will suffer because of his fanatical supporters.

Warren I like a lot and have since I first started turning my attention away from the 2016 debacle. As far as I can tell her only real stumble was playing into Trump's hands with the whole "Native American heritage" thing. She proved she had some Native American blood--which is all that she claimed, really--but even deigning to respond to Trump's jibes was a misstep and that cost her. She's been bringing actual policies to the table for ages rather than just whispers of promises like the other candidates, but I'm not sure she'll get the support she needs to overcome Biden in the primaries.

Harris I also like, but--and this is my own ignorance on the matter, I fully admit--she seems to me like a less-experienced version of Warren. There's also those questions surrounding her decisions as DA that she didn't really answer to the satisfaction of her critics, so I expect that to resurface again later. All in all, while I like her, I'd still go with Warren over her.

Castro made a splash in the debate, but I think a LOT of people out there still don't really know who he is or what he brings to the table. There's also the stigma of the name (which Hillary had to fight against to some degree in 2016), because people, as a whole, are just fucking stupid. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see them on the ticket as VP depending on his performance in the rest of the debates.

I've made it clear before--I'll vote for anyone over Trump at this stage. Hell, I'd vote for an actual Cheeto. At least then I'd know it wouldn't be making any fucking stupid EOs or declaring "national emergency lol". I'd love to see Warren as president, but I don't think that's in the cards for 2020. That said, I think we'll see a Biden/Warren or Biden/Harris ticket barring any real changes in the next year.

[Machismo]

Warren is a guaranteed loss, the Democrats would be morons to pick her. It's not about her policy, she's just an easy target. As for Harris, she's a corrupt asshole, and has pushed pay-for-play nonsense in California.

I expect Biden to win, because he's got a solid approval raiding (including +/-) and he can court moderates.

The primary debates are always terrible, because it's candidates pandering to the vocal minority of their party.

[JohnBrown1917]

I dunno about 2020, but its gonna be Spencer or Tom Cotton in 2024 for the GOP.

Warren is a guaranteed loss, the Democrats would be morons to pick her. It's not about her policy, she's just an easy target. As for Harris, she's a corrupt asshole, and has pushed pay-for-play nonsense in California.

I expect Biden to win, because he's got a solid approval raiding (including +/-) and he can court moderates.

The primary debates are always terrible, because it's candidates pandering to the vocal minority of their party.

Racist asshole vs racist asshole, would be a fun ellection.

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I realize Biden might not be as popular on these forums, but I think it would be foolish to completely dismiss him as a contender considering his nationwide numbers. He's still the frontrunner right now and I honestly don't see that changing anytime soon. I mentioned it in a different thread sometime last year, but I'm pretty sure "boring" and "middle of the road" are going to win out in 2020 as the people in the States try to take a break from batshit insane politics and policies.

I don't think Bernie has a shot at all and that's thanks in large part to the "Bernie Bros". Most Dems aren't going to forgive them their spite votes in 2016 and, as can be seen in these very forums, some fraction of their number are just plain insufferable in their zeal. His support is suffering/will suffer because of his fanatical supporters.

Warren I like a lot and have since I first started turning my attention away from the 2016 debacle. As far as I can tell her only real stumble was playing into Trump's hands with the whole "Native American heritage" thing. She proved she had some Native American blood--which is all that she claimed, really--but even deigning to respond to Trump's jibes was a misstep and that cost her. She's been bringing actual policies to the table for ages rather than just whispers of promises like the other candidates, but I'm not sure she'll get the support she needs to overcome Biden in the primaries.

Harris I also like, but--and this is my own ignorance on the matter, I fully admit--she seems to me like a less-experienced version of Warren. There's also those questions surrounding her decisions as DA that she didn't really answer to the satisfaction of her critics, so I expect that to resurface again later. All in all, while I like her, I'd still go with Warren over her.

Castro made a splash in the debate, but I think a LOT of people out there still don't really know who he is or what he brings to the table. There's also the stigma of the name (which Hillary had to fight against to some degree in 2016), because people, as a whole, are just fucking stupid. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see them on the ticket as VP depending on his performance in the rest of the debates.

I've made it clear before--I'll vote for anyone over Trump at this stage. Hell, I'd vote for an actual Cheeto. At least then I'd know it wouldn't be making any fucking stupid EOs or declaring "national emergency lol". I'd love to see Warren as president, but I don't think that's in the cards for 2020. That said, I think we'll see a Biden/Warren or Biden/Harris ticket barring any real changes in the next year.

They forgave Clinton's voters in 2008, 35% of which who went for McCain.

[Machismo]

I dunno about 2020, but its gonna be Spencer or Tom Cotton in 2024 for the GOP.


Racist asshole vs racist asshole, would be a fun ellection.

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They forgave Clinton's voters in 2008, 35% of which who went for McCain.

I expect Crenshaw to run in 2024 for the GOP. He's riding a huge wave of fanaticism behind him. Personally, I think he's a tool.

I'm not sure how racist Biden is these days. I hardly think he's at the level that Trump is.

[Independent voter]

Biden and some democratic governor who heads a swing state.

[Hobb]

Biden and some democratic governor who heads a swing state.

That is a solid strategy and very like will be the case.

But I think a Biden/Warren combo would be a solid ticket and even if that doesn't happen I still see Warren as the next possible Secretary of State.

[Eveningforest]

But I think a Biden/Warren combo would be a solid ticket and even if that doesn't happen I still see Warren as the next possible Secretary of State.

I also think Biden won't drop in popularity as much as some are hoping for. I'd be fine with a Biden/Warren ticket in the end. Judging by the constant "pass the torch" comments from Swalwell last night, I can see that their age would be brought up constantly as a negative. Together, they'd make a very strong team against Trump, however, and that's exactly what we need right now. So, yes, I'm fine with something like that.

[Fahrenheit]

Biden/Harris

[Grapemask]

Whether Biden is the top contender will really come down to how many candidates drop out when, and who they are.

Biden's numbers are essentially a mirror of Trump's in 2016. Most of the party wants someone else, but they're torn between who that may be. If everyone but Rubio and Cruz had dropped out after the first month, Trump likely would not have become the nominee - but if only one of them stayed, Trump would have been steamrolled. Democrats need to learn from this and choose very quickly who their designated survivor is going to be.

But realistically, Sanders will refuse to drop out until the bitter end. Warren will do well enough to see a reason to continue for some time, maybe hoping someone else drops out. I see Harris doing the same. Beto seems like he'd be too dumb to leave even if he gets 0% of the vote. I don't know the rest well enough to judge, but just those few are enough to solidify Biden, the guy most of us don't want.

I predict Biden picks someone from the losers, though. Warren would be the irony of the century, so maybe her. He needs an outspoken progressive, though, and if he fails to do so then he really is as tonedeaf as he appears.

[Elegiac]

That is a solid strategy and very like will be the case.

But I think a Biden/Warren combo would be a solid ticket and even if that doesn't happen I still see Warren as the next possible Secretary of State.

I don't, for the simple reason that there is considerable bad blood between Warren and Biden. That aside, after Biden's performance last night I think there is a genuine chance he may not make it to the primary. If you excise Harris' curbstomping and look at the debate as a whole, there's a couple of things that really stand out.

Biden's really struggling in the content department; none of his policy proposals are particularly substantive and most of his answers were based on things that happened during the Obama years. The main thrust of his campaign from the start was "not Trump" and "not Sanders", and that seems to be the selling point he's going with. Unfortunately, he has other opponents.

Secondly, Iraq. It's 2019, and yet Biden still struggled with a question he should have had an answer for in the 2008 primary. That does not inspire much confidence about his ability to roll with any historical punches - and that bore out in the way Harris took him to the cleaners. I can guarantee you that we'll begin hearing questions about the bailouts, the crime bill, etc. as the primary progresses, and unless his answers are sterling...

Finally, his age. He'd be the oldest President in history and was starting to look it by the end of the night (same with Sanders). 2016 didn't change that age is still a factor in people's considerations and there are some serious questions about bringing someone into office in their 80s.

It's far too early to call, obviously, and we'll see how the polling bears out - but thus far, the Biden campaign seems to be stumbling despite its advantages.

[draynay]

Finally, his age.

Other candidates went after him on age, and he played into their hands by pointing out his (distant) past accomplishments.

[Elegiac]

Other candidates went after him on age, and he played into their hands by pointing out his (distant) past accomplishments.

Yep. Like, don't get me wrong, if I hear "Pass the Torch" one more time I might literally die. But if people like Swalwell are able to make hits at Biden this easily how can people expect him to take on President Bonespurs.

[Sunseeker]

Biden/Harris(Booker).
@Grapemask I suspect Biden is exactly as tonedeaf as we all suspect him to be, because he's exactly as tonedeaf as the whole DNC seems to be. So I suspect we'll get a Biden/Clintonite ticket. Said ticket will also pander to RINOs throughout the campaign, and will be thoroughly torn apart by Trump, ironically, on their lack of integrity. But being a blustering blowhard may not be able to overcome a white male Clintonite ticket.

Biden is obvious, he's got name recognition and the DNC is already fawning all over him. Booker is a traditional Clintonite, but I would expect the party to attempt to appeal to women with Harris. So I think it's a tossup between those two.

Assuming for some wild reason Biden drops dead before the election, I'd bet on Booker or Warren, with again, Harris if it's Booker and probably Booker if it's Warren. To, again, balance out the man/woman ticket and the progressive/clintonite ticket.

[Benggaul]

They forgave Clinton's voters in 2008, 35% of which who went for McCain.

I don't argue that, but politics as of the past couple of years has been, well...

Plus, it's easier to forgive when "your side" still wins. When, instead, you're saddled with a racist, melting wax statue in small part because a certain percentage wanted to get cute with protest votes then it's going to be harder for some to see things from the other's point of view.

[JohnBrown1917]

I don't argue that, but politics as of the past couple of years has been, well...

Plus, it's easier to forgive when "your side" still wins. When, instead, you're saddled with a racist, melting wax statue in small part because a certain percentage wanted to get cute with protest votes then it's going to be harder for some to see things from the other's point of view.

The thing is though.. the amount that went to Trump is very standard in these kind of 2-round systems(even if its slighly different from the classic 2-round system).
What was it? Just 10%? While Sanders campaigned with Clinton and helped her in whatever way he could during the general? If they still hate bernie for what some small part of his old supporters did, they must be very petty.

[CostinR]

Biden along with any progressive choice: Be it a fellow candidate, governor, senator.

[Boricha]

Not who I want, but I would predict Harris/Booker. I think Biden's popularity will fall off as he continues to say nothing interesting and becomes wallpaper.

[Benggaul]

The thing is though.. the amount that went to Trump is very standard in these kind of 2-round systems(even if its slighly different from the classic 2-round system).
What was it? Just 10%? While Sanders campaigned with Clinton and helped her in whatever way he could during the general? If they still hate bernie for what some small part of his old supporters did, they must be very petty.

Oh I wouldn't even say they hate Bernie. They just hate what some of his irate supporters helped do in 2016. 10% might not sound like much but in an election that basically came down to a few hundred thousand in a handful of States, it's still difficult for them to forgive. Plus, as I mentioned before, some of those Bros seem to be addicted to being insufferable pricks, so that's not doing them any favors either.

I'd vote for Bernie if he wins through. I would have in 2016 if he had. I just don't see him making it this time around after the sour taste the past couple of years has put in people's mouths.

[Shadowferal]

Warren or Harris as VP would be a solid ticket for either Biden or Sanders.