Joe Biden- why?

[Gestopft]

Since Donald Trump won 2016, gallons and gallons of digital (and real) ink has been spilled on speculations as to which Democrat would be best suited to take on Trump in 2020. Recently departed Vice President and former Senator Joe Biden has featured prominently in these speculative exercises- on both the left and the right, and on these forums- and while there are certainly many reasonable answers for "who should take on Trump," Biden looks less reasonable the more I look. So much so that I'm starting to wonder why, exactly, he is considered one of the favorites. He has a long record of public service, but that record includes many, many elements that are not only difficult to reconcile with the current momentum within the Democratic Party and many of its constituent groups, but also look troubling when viewed through the lens of the 2016 election.

As of this writing, he has not announced whether or not he will run, but it is widely believed that he is looking at or planning to enter the race. If he does, he would be the only candidate on the stage that voted for the Iraq War. This war has not only been a monumental disaster for the country and for regional security, but was also a sticking point in the 2016 election. Trump hammered Clinton over her Iraq War vote, while maintaining that he'd been against it from the start- which wasn't true, but the point against Clinton still stuck. The same shot would be taken at Biden, and it would hit its mark again.

He wrote the 1994 Crime Bill, and while there were some good parts to it, it is associated with harsh sentencing, mass incarceration, and other aspects of the "tough on crime" approach that has sparked a large backlash today, especially amongst Democratic Party constituents. Clinton got hounded for "super predators," but Biden's rhetoric wasn't much better. (Note that while the Crime Bill didn't actually cause mass incarceration, the association would be nearly impossible to shake off.)

Remember Clinton's speeches to Goldman Sachs? Remember Trump playing up and lambasting her over her Wall Street connections (before nominating 6 or so Goldman veterans to cabinet or advisory positions)? Well...Biden's record with finance is even worse. One of his largest career donors in his Senatorial campaigns was a bank. He voted in 1994 for the bill that deregulated interstate banking, leading to more consolidation and larger, more centralized financial institutions (indeed the bank that was his largest donor was later bought out by Bank of America). He also voted in 1999 to repeal Glass-Steagall, which had separated commercial from investment banking. And while the exact effect of these bills on the financial crisis that followed is a complex issue that will continue to be debated amongst economists, a political narrative connecting Biden's votes to deregulate the finance sector with the crisis is easy to build and harder to break down.

Speaking of the financial crisis, did you know that 2010 had fewer consumer bankruptcies than each of the years 2003-2005? Wait, what? More people were declaring bankruptcy during a relatively healthy economy then during the depths of the financial crisis?? Why on earth?? Well...thanks to a 2005 bill that Biden was a strong supporter of, bankruptcies became much harder to file, and debts much harder to discharge. The credit card companies that reside in Biden's state of Delaware, Inc. were soooooo happy And you know how hard it is to get rid of student loans? Yeah, this bill did that too. Thanks Uncle Joe!

And speaking of student loan debt, what will Millennials think of Biden? So far, he's 0/2 as far as being on the right side of history on two of the generation's most formative political events (Iraq War and Great Recession). Maybe Millennials will still like him anyway? Hmmm....

The younger generation now tells me how tough things are- give me a break. No, no, I have no empathy for it, give me a break.

Oh. Hm. He's said nicer things about Strom Thurmond. Now, I don't bring this up because I think Millennials are snowflakes that will melt over nice Mr. Biden saying something mean, but because in the full context, it is apparent that he doesn't seem to have a grasp of why Millennials are saying that things are tough. It's hard to lead a country into the future if you are that out of touch with an entire generation's troubles.

While there is nothing as bad as a "grab 'em by the pussy" tape for Joe Biden, the #MeToo crowd still has reason to be skeptical of him. Anita Hill is still, as far as we know, waiting for an apology for how he handled her testimony in the Clarence Thomas nomination.

Now, this is not an exhaustive list of things that he could potentially and reasonably be criticized for- his votes on busing to integrate schools, welfare reform, and Patriot Act could all easily come under scrutiny, and his support of NAFTA and TPP could end up making it harder for him to win back some of the voters that were lost to Donald Trump (*cough* Rust Belt *cough*). This is also not about some sort of purity test. Any engaged voter realizes that they are going to have some points of disagreement with any candidate running, and that nobody will have a perfect record. But Biden's record just has so many stains on it. To be fair, he says he regrets some of these votes- the Glass-Steagall repeal in particular he said was one of the worst votes he's ever made, but at what point should voters decide that there is too much to apologize for? How many times in the past should a candidate get to be on the (at least perceived) wrong side of history before we tell them that they shouldn't be deciding the future?

Perhaps you think some of these votes were right. That's fine, but let me reiterate that the point of this isn't "I don't like these votes," but that many votes on his record are going to be hard to square- not just with today's Democratic Party, but today's country. Clinton got slammed by Trump (however unfairly or hypocritically) for the Iraq War, for Wall Street connections, and for TPP. So how does it make sense to put up someone with the same weaknesses? Why Biden?

But wait a minute, you might say. Isn't he leading or at least doing well in the polls that he's included in? Isn't he near the top of the punditocracy's power rankings? Don't plenty of knowledgeable and informed people on the left and right think he would enter the race as a favorite? Well, yes. He is one of the most experienced Democrats; an elder statesman with high name recognition. Having been Obama's VP makes him the beneficiary of Obama-nostalgic Democrats that may think of Biden in terms of Obama's record and policies instead of his own. And then there's the Obama-Biden memes, which were awesome. So there's some good vibes there for Uncle Joe, and it's not just Democrat-leaners that see him as formidable. The right also considers him contender, and a major threat to Trump as well. But why? Do they think his "Regular Joe" demeanor and Scranton roots would take back enough of the white working class? Do they think only a white male would be able to defeat Trump? Do they think that his centrism would win over enough 'cosmopolitan conservatives' that are frustrated with Trump and the direction of the GoP? Or do they secretly think that he could be painted as Male Hillary and go down in flames? In any case, I think that as Democratic primary voters get to know the field better, and his record gets combed over, that the advantages he currently holds would quickly dissipate. I'm just not sure what his strongest constituency within the Democratic Party would be- to which voters he would have a distinct advantage over other candidates.

Ok, ok, but isn't this country itching for a return to normal? Isn't a jovial centrist that gets along with everybody just the soothing balm we need to unite the country and right the ship after the chaos of Trump? I'm not so sure. Keep in mind a) that a significant chunk of the country thinks that Trump is righting the ship, and b) that the very election of Trump (as well as the surge in popularity of Bernie Sanders) is a rejection of the status quo. What good is return to normal if 'normal' is what led to Trump? What is the electorate going to think of 'centrism' when the policy consensus of the past four decades is what has led to the current status quo? Joe Biden is as establishment as it gets- or at least he can easily be framed in that way. If a significant portion of both sides of the electorate don't think the political establishment is working for them, what good is an establishment candidate?

I will finish by saying that I do think he could win- I would certainly vote for him over Trump or any other Republican that was running, and Trump has failed to reach out beyond his hardcore faithful and expand his base of support. The Rust Belt states that put him over the edge have already gone significantly towards the Democrats in 2018, but why don't you ask Walter Mondale, Bob Dole, John Kerry, and Mitt Romney how well experienced party elders have fared against incumbents. Democrats need to be forward looking, but other than Clinton, it's hard to think of anybody but Biden that better represents the Democratic party of the 90's. Of course, he would be running on new policies- more to the left than his voting record certainly- but is he really a good option? Why does conventional wisdom think that he is?

[Somewhatconcerned]

Biden will end up being Hilary 2.0 especially since he won't be able to control his mouth and I'm sure he'll have a "deplorables" moment that sinks him. But the Dems will nominate him anyway and then wonder why they lost badly. So predictable.

[NED funded]

This reads more like reasons I dont like Biden rather than genuine concern over if Biden would win in 2020. If he has the momentum and is able to win the dem primary would you have the same concerns OP?

[NED funded]

Biden will end up being Hilary 2.0 especially since he won't be able to control his mouth and I'm sure he'll have a "deplorables" moment that stinks him. But the Dems will nominate him anyway and then wonder why they lost badly. So predictable.

As we all know dems are a hive mind and wills its candidates into existence, rather than you know having genuine popularity and beating other candidates.

Nothing is more disgusting than people grouping anyone that disagrees into "the other", "the dems".

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This old sex pest is going nowhere. If he runs all the women hes creeped over the years will put him in his place.

the best dem meme atm https://twitter.com/Kulinski_crat/st...19749109002240

Im surprised Gabbard and Warren are there since they are pretty down in the polls. A shame for Warren because she is actually brilliant and has her ideas fleshed out.

[Theodarzna]

Joe Biden is the exact same formula as Hillary but without the "first female president" appeal, and I hate to say it but Hillary was more likable than Joe because at least she had that "Woman who fought and clawed her way for decades in a more male dominated field" appeal.

[Dontrike]

Biden will end up being Hilary 2.0 especially since he won't be able to control his mouth and I'm sure he'll have a "deplorables" moment that sinks him. But the Dems will nominate him anyway and then wonder why they lost badly. So predictable.

One calls a group of people deplorables and it will make them not get elected. The other one will call practically every single group on the planet some racist name and get elected.

Who said things had to make sense?

[Gestopft]

This reads more like reasons I dont like Biden rather than genuine concern over if Biden would win in 2020. If he has the momentum and is able to win the dem primary would you have the same concerns OP?

1) I did twice relate some of these issues to points that stuck against Clinton- if they stuck against her, of course I would be concerned that they could affect him too. Each one of the things I mentioned has the potential to be used against him the same way they were weaponized against Clinton, and/or they could affect his support among various Democratic constituencies. So it’s definitely more than “I just don’t like these things.”

2) At this point, I’m trying to figure out exactly what the positive case for Biden is. If he wins the primary, he will have successfully made the case to enough people, and my level of concern would likely depend on how he made the case. If it happens, ask again I guess.

[Adam Jensen]

If the Dems elect Biden in the primaries, I'm gonna be super pissed. That would be all the proof we need that they didn't learn a goddamn thing in 2016.

[NED funded]

1) I did twice relate some of these issues to points that stuck against Clinton- if they stuck against her, of course I would be concerned that they could affect him too. Each one of the things I mentioned has the potential to be used against him the same way they were weaponized against Clinton, and/or they could affect his support among various Democratic constituencies. So it’s definitely more than “I just don’t like these things.”

2) At this point, I’m trying to figure out exactly what the positive case for Biden is. If he wins the primary, he will have successfully made the case to enough people, and my level of concern would likely depend on how he made the case. If it happens, ask again I guess.

Considering that the points pundits try to pin on her "the economy" or the iraq vote ended up being irrelevant when it came to support for Trump, I don't see how is that relevant now?

You are viewing politics as policy driven as opposed to character driven. If Biden has the charisma to coast through his critics I don't see the problem.

If your only concern is if he can win, then the polls are the biggest case there is for him and that is something that will change, so no point in discussing it if you ask me.

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If the Dems elect Biden in the primaries, I'm gonna be super pissed. That would be all the proof we need that they didn't learn a goddamn thing in 2016.

The more I read this sort of comments, the more I wonder how disconnected Bernie supporters are from reality. People voting their preferences is proof that "the Dems" didn't learn their lessons. LMAO.

[JohnBrown1917]

The more I read this sort of comments, the more I wonder how disconnected Bernie supporters are from reality. People voting their preferences is proof that "the Dems" didn't learn their lessons. LMAO.

Yeah, pretty much if it means voting in Sex offenders like Biden.

[NED funded]

Yeah, pretty much if it means voting in Sex offenders like Biden.

If black voters end up voting in droves for Biden like they did with Hillary does that mean that they "didn't learn their lessons"?

[tyrlaan]

I've said it before and I'll say it again - supporting Biden means you think we can "go back to the way things were" which is both naive and counterproductive. It's like buying into the concept behind "Make America Great Again" but without the white supremacy.

There's no reason to try to return to the status quo when we already knew the status quo was crap.

[Dontrike]

All of this really well put together and long post gonna be made irrelevant by his interactions with women. There's just no way he will be able to get around that. (left) Twitter exploded with it today. Dozens of pictures, movies too, from the reactions it was clear some people were seeing them first time, even though they are a meme at this point, very well spread.

Smelling their hair, caressing, even one random kiss (on the mouth?!???), there's just no way he can manoeuvre past all this, it will be hell for him.

And yet we have a president known for similar and evidence he paid porn stars to sleep with him, while he was married, and tried to cover it up and yet not a damn thing happened.

[Gestopft]

And yet we have a president known for similar and evidence he paid porn stars to sleep with him, while he was married, and tried to cover it up and yet not a damn thing happened.

Well, when only one side has any semblance of standards...

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If the Dems elect Biden in the primaries, I'm gonna be super pissed. That would be all the proof we need that they didn't learn a goddamn thing in 2016.

This is sort of my concern. Obviously the how would matter a lot.

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You are viewing politics as policy driven as opposed to character driven. If Biden has the charisma to coast through his critics I don't see the problem.

Is it not both? I mean...look at Trump. People were willing to overlook his character to vote for him.

If your only concern is if he can win, then the polls are the biggest case there is for him and that is something that will change, so no point in discussing it if you ask me.

That's really part of what I'm looking for. Why is he where he is in the polls? Why is he considered such a favorite by pundits? Is is just name recognition? Obama nostalgia? Is his base of support casual or dedicated? What does he have that other candidates don't other than his particular brand of "charisma."

[jeezusisacasual]

I think we are in the age of populism until the ship is righted. Polls are a tricky thing because i could have swore that almost every poll tossed around had Hillary by large amounts which came down to nothing and then look at whom is selected for the polls etc. This is exactly why Trump also moved to talking about Healthcare because he knows its one of the few pieces of glue that the democrats have over him and his party this will be further talked about how much it costs businesses, its the reason for the slowing of job growth and all that. This will be an interesting period for damn sure.

[Fincayra]

I think we are in the age of populism until the ship is righted. Polls are a tricky thing because i could have swore that almost every poll tossed around had Hillary by large amounts which came down to nothing and then look at whom is selected for the polls etc. This is exactly why Trump also moved to talking about Healthcare because he knows its one of the few pieces of glue that the democrats have over him and his party this will be further talked about how much it costs businesses, its the reason for the slowing of job growth and all that. This will be an interesting period for damn sure.

The 2016 election is why I will never put stock in another poll for the rest of my life. They are completely useless. And, the polls are a huge reason why I think Hillary lost. They gave the democrats a sense of complacency where as I'm sure if the numbers were a lot more even in the polls, a lot more democrats would have showed up to vote. Hell, Hillary's odds of winning on election day were near 100% at the start of the day, dropping to near zero at the end. EVERYONE discounted Trump, and that was his strength, I think. I think 2016 is a case study in not giving the polling companies an ounce of credibility for the rest of the life of the universe.

[JohnBrown1917]

And yet we have a president known for similar and evidence he paid porn stars to sleep with him, while he was married, and tried to cover it up and yet not a damn thing happened.

Who know that his base did not care, what a surprise.

They wont for Biden though.

[SavoirFaire]

Biden is the candidate you put up when you know you have no chance, and are giving a friendly nod to a long-loyal party member with a presidential run. Think Dole or McCain, even Mondale to an extent. I seriously doubt the 2020 election is anywhere near a "no chance" state of things.

[Draco-Onis]

The 2016 election is why I will never put stock in another poll for the rest of my life. They are completely useless. And, the polls are a huge reason why I think Hillary lost. They gave the democrats a sense of complacency where as I'm sure if the numbers were a lot more even in the polls, a lot more democrats would have showed up to vote. Hell, Hillary's odds of winning on election day were near 100% at the start of the day, dropping to near zero at the end. EVERYONE discounted Trump, and that was his strength, I think. I think 2016 is a case study in not giving the polling companies an ounce of credibility for the rest of the life of the universe.

ROFLMAO not only do you not understand how math works you pull polls out of your ass good job, contrary to what right wing nut jobs say the numbers were accurate.

[zenkai]

I think Joe is a poor choice, I liked him at first but after see him debate, I feel he is a joke. He just smiles and laughs whenever he gets a question he can answer, which seems to be a lot.