Molten Core, honest predictions.

[Stormspellz]

HAHAHA!! Joke of the day.

Was you around for the 10 years aniversary?? It was a wipe fest of epic proportions.. And that was with player abilities that didn't even exist in Vanilla. It was with proper itemization.

It was scaled down to level 60, you everyone was still in epic gear with the stats to match. In Vanilla, next to none had epic gear when the delved into MC..

we aren't talking about the lowest level of player we are talking about competent guilds, the question isn't how soon will MC get pugged by trade chat, but how soon will it get cleared.

[chrisnumbers]

Source or it didn't happen.

You weren't reading the thread at all?

[garicasha]

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...-Ragnaros-kill

Most think it’d be 10 days, but that was when we thought DM gear would be available.

[Triden]

Maybe some clarification is in order here. I believe Blizzard mentioned that there have been somewhere in the ballpark of ~40-50 million unique World of Warcraft players since the game launched. I don't think it's a stretch to think that maybe 5-10% of those players will try Classic out (I might even expect more than that, but let's be conservative). That's between 2 million (on the low end) and 5 million (on the high end) players that will be trying out Classic in the first month or so. Now, let's be conservative and assume that about 80% of those players stop playing after the first month and about 10-20% will remain to level to 60 -- that's between 200,000 (on the low end) and 1,000,000 on the high end.

Now, if you look back at the infographic from <insert famous private server here> talking about their playerbase when they shut down they had 150,000 active accounts. I think it's fair to say not all of those accounts were players who raided, but let's be generous and say that 75% of those accounts were active raiders. That's 112,500 players. So, if we assume they will ALL play Classic, that gives us a baseline. Considering our previously stated low end of retained players was 200k, I think it's pretty fair to say we'll have at least 2-3x the number of players who played on PS sticking around who didn't play on PSs (again, I'd say that's generous -- I expect we'll see a higher multiplier there). So, let's assume (generously) that only 337,500 players stick around to play WoW (and again, assuming they'll end up raiding in some form). That first 112k of players will likely form into some hundreds of raiding guilds, level quickly in the first month or so, and clear raids pretty easily. I don't think anyone is debating this. However, I do believe there is a new category of player that PSs didn't really see much of that will definitely exist on Classic -- slower paced, casual raiding guilds similar to what you saw when Vanilla was live. These will start hitting raids probably months behind the PS crowd and will be filled with people who either A) never played Vanilla (or PSs), B) did play Vanilla (but haven't played since and have been playing retail), or C) played Vanilla (and haven't played WoW since).

The PS crowd will probably congregate on 1-3 servers whereas the other crowd will likely spread over many more servers. There will a huge number of guilds with inexperienced Vanilla players trying to raid (outnumbering PS guilds by at least 2-3x based on the above speculated numbers). If you've played retail at all outside of the small bubble that is the top 1000 guilds in the world (or whatever), you would know that there are LOTS of players today who struggle with even basic mechanics still. Sure, there will always be at least one competent player in the raid who outlines the strat, but for every one competent player, there will be 5 who struggle. That will be much more common than the "yep, all 40 people in the raid heard the explanation and did everything perfect the first time" scenarios. You can call these "trash guilds" or "trash players" if you like, but they vastly outnumber "skilled" players in retail and they will probably also outnumber skilled players in Classic. This is what the OP was trying to get across, I think.

Anyhow. This is all speculation. But I think generally speaking, it's pretty obvious that there will be a huge audience for Classic and there will be TONS of people who want to see the raids who would fall under the "trash player" category based on how many on this forum gauge player skill. As someone else pointed out, back in 2006 there were plenty of guides, strats, videos, and other material to explain how to defeat raid bosses in MC and elsewhere. The information availability hasn't changed dramatically. The issue then, as it will be now, is that some players are just not as good at paying attention to multiple things at once as others. They tunnel the boss. Then they blow up the raid. They do this in retail now and they'll do it in Classic too.

[BSwitch]

Those of us around in Retail during the 10 year anniversary Molten Core raid remember it was a pretty spectacular failure, and far harder than many thought it would/should be. That's a different story, though. That's introducing a 40 man raid far after the fact, and throwing a bunch of LFR types into a raid that was tuned for a certain level of competence.

By the time you get a guild full of 40 to MC, they've already proved they're somewhat competent with the gameplay of Classic. There will be challenge, and those who know where the BIS gear is will get it asap. I expect it will still have some challenge (especially Domo), but generally Classic guilds will be dedicated and will own face.

And, may I add, I CAN'T WAIT!!

[arkanon]

snip.

And this is the issue. People trying to make "estimates" are just making numbers up. saying things like "i think we all know" and "i think its obvious" doesnt add any weight when you get the first number horribly wrong. Like, not even close. And this is the issue - people go on about how their method is an acceptable way to estimate a player base, but the entire process is a sham.

First off, YEARS ago blizzard said there had been over 100,000,000 accounts created, not 40-50m. That was a LONG time ago. But that number is entirely irrelevant, and has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on Classic wow, or, Retail wow. Going on to say things like "conservatively lets say 10%" why 10%? what makes that conservative? why 80%? what are you using to justify that number?

Its just numbers out of bums, made up statistics and "data" that is wrong to begin with.

- - - Updated - - -

Anyhow. This is all speculation. But I think generally speaking, it's pretty obvious that there will be a huge audience for Classic and there will be TONS of people who want to see the raids who would fall under the "trash player" category based on how many on this forum gauge player skill. As someone else pointed out, back in 2006 there were plenty of guides, strats, videos, and other material to explain how to defeat raid bosses in MC and elsewhere. The information availability hasn't changed dramatically. The issue then, as it will be now, is that some players are just not as good at paying attention to multiple things at once as others. They tunnel the boss. Then they blow up the raid. They do this in retail now and they'll do it in Classic too.

Why is it obvious? I'm not seeing that at all. I'm seeing what i always saw - a tiny vocal minority. The players wanting to play it are very passionate about it, and very vocal, but i dont see this army of fans that some people see. I see a hand full of people claiming its the second coming of gaming and will change the industry, while 99% of people i talk to have low / no interest in it at all.

[Triden]

And this is the issue. People trying to make "estimates" are just making numbers up. saying things like "i think we all know" and "i think its obvious" doesnt add any weight when you get the first number horribly wrong. Like, not even close. And this is the issue - people go on about how their method is an acceptable way to estimate a player base, but the entire process is a sham.

First off, YEARS ago blizzard said there had been over 100,000,000 accounts created, not 40-50m. That was a LONG time ago. But that number is entirely irrelevant, and has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on Classic wow, or, Retail wow. Going on to say things like "conservatively lets say 10%" why 10%? what makes that conservative? why 80%? what are you using to justify that number?

Its just numbers out of bums, made up statistics and "data" that is wrong to begin with.

And this is exactly your problem. This entire thread is speculative. How many players from PSs will play Classic? No one knows. Maybe none. Maybe all of them. Maybe no one will play Classic at all. What we're trying to do is speculate with whatever information we have because it's fun to do. I mean, do you think the point of this thread is to come up with actual numbers on what will actually happen? I think you might be the only person who does if you do.

How many total unique people have played WoW over time does in fact matter. A lot of these people will hear that Classic came out, feel the nostalgia come on (or just want to see what the hype is about because they started post-Cataclysm) and check it out. You can have the opinion that no one but those who played PSs will care about Classic if you like, and I can have the opinion that you're wrong. We can agree to disagree. However, out of my own small WoW community of casual players I'm in, I know around 10 people who will likely try out Classic when it launches and expect maybe 3 or 4 of them will hit 60. None of them touched PSs.

Why is it obvious? I'm not seeing that at all. I'm seeing what i always saw - a tiny vocal minority. The players wanting to play it are very passionate about it, and very vocal, but i dont see this army of fans that some people see. I see a hand full of people claiming its the second coming of gaming and will change the industry, while 99% of people i talk to have low / no interest in it at all.

I guess we'll see. I don't think it's the second coming of gaming or that it'll change the industry. I do think there are a LOT of people who have played WoW over the years who miss the old talent system and would like to see the old 40 man raids again who have never touched PSs. And I do mean a LOT. I personally know at least 2-3 people who stopped playing WoW in BC who will come back for Classic and as I mentioned earlier -- around 10 people currently playing retail who will play it (probably half of whom never saw Vanilla). Will they keep playing it? Will I keep playing it? Who knows? The point of the thread was to have fun speculating. I think you're drastically underestimating how popular this will be initially though and I think there will be far more people than were in the PS community who keep playing to 60 and beyond.

[arkanon]

And this is exactly your problem. This entire thread is speculative. How many players from PSs will play Classic? No one knows. Maybe none. Maybe all of them. Maybe no one will play Classic at all. What we're trying to do is speculate with whatever information we have because it's fun to do. I mean, do you think the point of this thread is to come up with actual numbers on what will actually happen? I think you might be the only person who does if you do.

How many total unique people have played WoW over time does in fact matter. A lot of these people will hear that Classic came out, feel the nostalgia come on (or just want to see what the hype is about because they started post-Cataclysm) and check it out. You can have the opinion that no one but those who played PSs will care about Classic if you like, and I can have the opinion that you're wrong. We can agree to disagree. However, out of my own small WoW community of casual players I'm in, I know around 10 people who will likely try out Classic when it launches and expect maybe 3 or 4 of them will hit 60. None of them touched PSs.



I guess we'll see. I don't think it's the second coming of gaming or that it'll change the industry. I do think there are a LOT of people who have played WoW over the years who miss the old talent system and would like to see the old 40 man raids again who have never touched PSs. And I do mean a LOT. I personally know at least 2-3 people who stopped playing WoW in BC who will come back for Classic and as I mentioned earlier -- around 10 people currently playing retail who will play it (probably half of whom never saw Vanilla). Will they keep playing it? Will I keep playing it? Who knows? The point of the thread was to have fun speculating. I think you're drastically underestimating how popular this will be initially though and I think there will be far more people than were in the PS community who keep playing to 60 and beyond.

BASED ON WHAT! where are you getting this information? What makes you think a LOT of them even still game at all? Its all just made up garbage. you know 13 people who have SAID they will play classic - and you are extrapolating that out to hundreds of thousands? Jesus man, we dont have anywhere near the information and data needed to make any kind of estimate.

"couple of my mates say they are gonna check it out" - "so based on that, we start with 50,000,000 players and apply the EXACT same logic to 50,000,000 people, and boom!

its all garbage numbers and made up, uneducated guesses, and nothing more.

Here, let me show you.

Apparently, earlier on Blizzard said they had over 100m accounts created. Assuming only 3m people bought BfA, we can assume over 97% of players have moved on from wow and wont come back. Those 3m players play retail and not PS, so lets say 1% at most have interest in classic. The ppl who do play on a PS only play there because its free, so none of them will suddenly be happy paying for something they get for free, so none of them will come over.

That leaves 30,000 people who might try classic. Lets say 80% of them dont make it to 60, leaving 6,000 players at max level. Naxx was only completed by 1% of players, so we can now estimate that only one raid will ever fully clear naxx, as there will only be 60 players raiding at max level.

seems logical to me.

[sourlol]

Organized groups will kill MC and Ony on the 2nd week of release 100%.

It seems possible, yet highly unlikely anyone will kill him/her first lockout.

Its going to take people who know what they are doing, but have lives, 4-6 weeks to hit cap. another 2 or so, to get prebis. I would imagine your retail wow heroic raider and up crowd will start killing Rag/Ony in high numbers around 1.75-2.5 months in, with it really popping off around the 3 month mark--following the patch release schedule, phase 1 should last somewhere around 79-136 days, 3-4 months.

"Mythic" quality raider effort will put you at a kill around 1 month in. Pushing for world/region firsts are the 1st week and 2nd week kill sorts of folks.

Much before that requires significant hour investment and a roster of 40 people focused solely around killing rag and ony ASAP.

[arkanon]

Organized groups will kill MC and Ony on the 2nd week of release 100%.

It seems possible, yet highly unlikely anyone will kill him/her first lockout.

Its going to take people who know what they are doing, but have lives, 4-6 weeks to hit cap. another 2 or so, to get prebis. I would imagine your retail wow heroic raider and up crowd will start killing Rag/Ony in high numbers around 1.75-2.5 months in, with it really popping off around the 3 month mark--following the patch release schedule, phase 1 should last somewhere around 79-136 days, 3-4 months.

"Mythic" quality raider effort will put you at a kill around 1 month in. Pushing for world/region firsts are the 1st week and 2nd week kill sorts of folks.

Much before that requires significant hour investment and a roster of 40 people focused solely around killing rag and ony ASAP.

Yup, this is my thought as well. Rather than talking specific numbers, which as i have pointed out is a complete joke, you are talking the reality. PS and Consistent high end raiders with a dedicated group of 60+ people will be clearing content so fast itll make ya head spin. I think there seems to be some real dishonesty from SOME vanilla vans / classic fans who refuse to acknowledge just how far raiding has come, and just how far the difficulty has gone.

There was a group trying to aim for first lockout kills, but i just dont see that happening. That is such a tight timeframe, there are just too many variables. Real life and issues completely out of the guilds control could derail their mission. Main tank got sick / injured? called into work? family issues? Server issues? balance issues? computers crashing / breaking. Honestly, there is just SO much that could go wrong in that first week (or any week) i think there just isnt enough time to adapt and overcome those issues. Week 2 seems possible, but again, thats everyone assuming smooth sailing right through.

[chrisnumbers]

The thread title literally asks for predictions. People attempt to give a prediction and they're quickly met by irate lunatics.
Jeez oh man get a grip.

[Bakis]

Slumber party while everyone wait for BWL/Battlegrounds to open

[Smash Adams]

The thread title literally asks for predictions. People attempt to give a prediction and they're quickly met by irate lunatics.
Jeez oh man get a grip.

Either that or they are off on tangents kicking and screaming about playerbase size predictions.

[FuxieDK]

Really? I mean, I did it twice and had no problems whatsoever. A few wipes, sure, but it was a walk in the park.

I did it 10-15 times, because of the rare drops from Raggy. 10 wipes per run was by no means uncommon.

- - - Updated - - -

we aren't talking about the lowest level of player we are talking about competent guilds, the question isn't how soon will MC get pugged by trade chat, but how soon will it get cleared.

And that exactly is why, it will be a wipe fest... Because it's not for the average Joe.

Take an example: How many wipes you you when you do progression raiding? 5? 10? 20? On a boss..
Method and similar guilds have maybe 400..

Does that mean you are better than Method, because you only have 5-10% the amount of raids? No it means you do it later, where content becomes easier, because more players are geared up...

[Zka]

MC will be a complete faceroll. It's been a joke back then, 20 competent players could clear it in blue gear. I've seen videos of well geared players pulling 2 bosses together. It's still a joke.

[kamuimac]

its gonna get melted, everyone knows the strats, everyone knows where to get the gear

And every guild will go there with only rogues mages warriors plus 1 lock 1 Hunter. Those bosses literaly melt just like you said

- - - Updated - - -

Those of us around in Retail during the 10 year anniversary Molten Core raid remember it was a pretty spectacular failure, and far harder than many thought it would/should be. That's a different story, though. That's introducing a 40 man raid far after the fact, and throwing a bunch of LFR types into a raid that was tuned for a certain level of competence.

By the time you get a guild full of 40 to MC, they've already proved they're somewhat competent with the gameplay of Classic. There will be challenge, and those who know where the BIS gear is will get it asap. I expect it will still have some challenge (especially Domo), but generally Classic guilds will be dedicated and will own face.

And, may I add, I CAN'T WAIT!!

Hm that's not how i remember IT. Maybe because i did IT with my guild so it was boring snoozefest 1 shot everything.

[Bathory]

the hardcore will clear it, the casuals will think it's too hard. Both will find it too hard to find 40 people and eventually stop. My guess at least

[arkanon]

MC will be a complete faceroll. It's been a joke back then, 20 competent players could clear it in blue gear. I've seen videos of well geared players pulling 2 bosses together. It's still a joke.

- - - Updated - - -



Your numbers and assumptions are just as bad and uneducated as the guy's you are reacting to. It's really funny.

Please tell me you are not this stupid. PLEASE.

"its all garbage numbers and made up, uneducated guesses, and nothing more.

Here, let me show you."

just in case someone was so godamn stupid they didnt realize i was showing how silly the numbers are, i even said it very clearly that i was using those numbers specifically and intentionally to show how ludicrous the idea of estimating playbase is.

[Stormspellz]

I did it 10-15 times, because of the rare drops from Raggy. 10 wipes per run was by no means uncommon.

- - - Updated - - -

And that exactly is why, it will be a wipe fest... Because it's not for the average Joe.

Take an example: How many wipes you you when you do progression raiding? 5? 10? 20? On a boss..
Method and similar guilds have maybe 400..

Does that mean you are better than Method, because you only have 5-10% the amount of raids? No it means you do it later, where content becomes easier, because more players are geared up...

MC isn't mythic jaina, hell its not even LFR jaina your typical LFR is lower then your "average joe" they are literally the worst players in the game.

[Zka]

just in case someone was so godamn stupid they didnt realize i was showing how silly the numbers are, i even said it very clearly that i was using those numbers specifically and intentionally to show how ludicrous the idea of estimating playbase is.

Yeah sorry, I skipped over the "let me show you" part