Opposition Polling for 2020; Time to Clear the Field?

[Milchshake]

Quinnipiac University’s new national poll looking at the 2020 Democratic primary looks fairly familiar.



At what point should bottom tier candidates bow out?



Three candidates have net unfavorability among Democrats:

• Tulsi, the candidate for anyone who follows Michael Tracey on Twitter and finds Steny Hoyer’s voting record a little too left-wing
• Seth Moulton, leader of the “let’s replace Nancy Pelosi with a random more conservative white guy to be named later” failed coup
• de Blasio, who is approaching almost Howard Schultz levels of unpopularity.

[DarkTZeratul]

We haven't even had a single debate yet. I don't expect anyone to bow out based purely on polling when campaigns haven't even really kicked off in earnest yet.

[Xeones]

So many nameless nobodies. I really hope the vast majority drop out almost immediately. Buttigieg is the only "nobody" at this point who seems they have what it takes to rise up.

Also I don't even know why Beto is running now. He should have stayed out and just thrown his weight behind the winner to try getting an appointment for executive experience for a future run. I feel like he has a good chance of damaging his political future here.

[DarkTZeratul]

So many nameless nobodies. I really hope the vast majority drop out almost immediately. Buttigieg is the only "nobody" at this point who seems they have what it takes to rise up.

Also I don't even know why Beto is running now. He should have stayed out and just thrown his weight behind the winner to try getting an appointment for executive experience for a future run. I feel like he has a good chance of damaging his political future here.

The debate cutoff is June 12, which will effectively cut the field to 20 or so. I suspect the results of the debate on June 15/16 will start to winnow it down, with the July 30/31 debates probably shrinking it to a dozen or so who will last until the primaries start separating out the strongest few contenders.

There's no reason that, if Beto drops out, he can't support someone else thereafter. There's not much risk in running that I can think of unless he hits a point where he has to drop out of the running for reelection.

EDIT: Note that I'm not saying it's not a stupid idea for him to run, because it probably is, just that I don't see much harm in it.

[Wyrt]

If Biden can go fuck off that'd be great. If I wanted to vote conservative I'd vote Republican.

[Flarelaine]

Also I don't even know why Beto is running now.

I don't understand Beto running at all. Right now all he's got is a failed bid for Senate. Admittedly, Trump kinda nixed the tradition of people building experience before running for the White House, but still, right now Beto is a loser. Even if I take note of his energised campaign, lots of voters will just remember he lost.

[Ripster42]

So many nameless nobodies. I really hope the vast majority drop out almost immediately. Buttigieg is the only "nobody" at this point who seems they have what it takes to rise up.

Also I don't even know why Beto is running now. He should have stayed out and just thrown his weight behind the winner to try getting an appointment for executive experience for a future run. I feel like he has a good chance of damaging his political future here.

Buttigieg is a gay male. Too many americans won't vote for a gay guy, regardless of how good of a candidate he is or who his competition is. He's only slightly more electable than an atheist. A gay woman has a better chance, even accounting for how many americans won't vote for a woman. The 'silent generation' (and some older boomers) will have to die off before a gay guy gets elected, so give it 20 years before ascribing a gay guy a chance. It's a lot like obama: He wasn't getting elected til the overtly racist 'greatest generation' was basically finished dying, before that, race was too much of a factor (and even then, obama likely beat the trend because of bush and the economic crash [the big bankruptcies happened that september]).

[Gestopft]

The debates will shrink the field. The first few primaries will nearly decimate it. We've got a loooong road; no point in booting out a bunch of passengers when we haven't gotten to the first stop yet.

[NED funded]

Warren catching up to Sanders is something that took me by surprise

[DarkTZeratul]

The Democrats are playing an interesting game. The party is split among the ~25 different candidates, and all that seems to be talked about is “can x beat Trump”...

It will be interesting watching to see if they can come together at the end, or if they will hold grudges that their candidate did not win the nomination.

Since we haven't even started debates yet, let alone primaries, it's way too early to be talking about splitting the field.

Historically, most people will rally around whoever gets the nomination.

[Fugus]

Biden doesn't stand a chance in the general, Trump can still beat him most of all in that crowd.

If Biden were to make it out of the primary, the general would show his CSPAN session where he is talking about cutting social security and medicare plastered wall to wall which will kill his support.

The only ones who will support stripping those policies are already voting for Trump with no chance of voting for any Democrat. And why would anyone want to vote Democrat if all they are going to get is a left leaning republican?

The Democrats have the demographics on their side and trending even more on their side with their side being the popular side of the vast majority of issues. They just refuse to run on them issues and actively avoid trying to address the issues when they have power unless forced.....

Here is to hoping for Bernie or Warren, even if they win, the Democrats will fight them at every chance but it will show their base where those politicians stand come next election. I would rather have a president who fights for me and fails than one who sells me out and succeeds.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

I think they should all stay in for at least several debates. While some might not win out right in the primary many of them could prove to be strong running mates as VP or other appointed positions. That gives them the stage to show where they are strong and can be useful.

As for democrats that refuse to vote for who comes out of it.. well.. enjoy Trump another 4 with that level of stupidity. I have my one or two out of the pac I want to run im the general, but I know if its not them I will be voting for whoever isn't Trump. Watching my country going down the crapper faster than it has been has me worried. Not to mention I don't want to know how many wars Trump will get us into just to change the subject.

[NED funded]

Biden doesn't stand a chance in the general, Trump can still beat him most of all in that crowd.

If Biden were to make it out of the primary, the general would show his CSPAN session where he is talking about cutting social security and medicare plastered wall to wall which will kill his support.

The only ones who will support stripping those policies are already voting for Trump with no chance of voting for any Democrat. And why would anyone want to vote Democrat if all they are going to get is a left leaning republican?

The Democrats have the demographics on their side and trending even more on their side with their side being the popular side of the vast majority of issues. They just refuse to run on them issues and actively avoid trying to address the issues when they have power unless forced.....

Here is to hoping for Bernie or Warren, even if they win, the Democrats will fight them at every chance but it will show their base where those politicians stand come next election. I would rather have a president who fights for me and fails than one who sells me out and succeeds.

If Biden wins the nomination that shows he has a lot of support among the left that vote democrats?

People are going in a dizzy about Biden crushing Bernie and Warren.

[Fugus]

I think they should all stay in for at least several debates. While some might not win out right in the primary many of them could prove to be strong running mates as VP or other appointed positions. That gives them the stage to show where they are strong and can be useful.

As for democrats that refuse to vote for who comes out of it.. well.. enjoy Trump another 4 with that level of stupidity. I have my one or two out of the pac I want to run im the general, but I know if its not them I will be voting for whoever isn't Trump. Watching my country going down the crapper faster than it has been has me worried. Not to mention I don't want to know how many wars Trump will get us into just to change the subject.

Short of Biden getting the nomination or the winner effectively screwing around and more or less cheating like last time, I don't see that happening.

They have Biden's number come the general, but the rest, so long as it is all legit, would gladly back the DNC nominee rather than the shit-gibbon winning another term to sell out this nation and their own children.

- - - Updated - - -

If Biden wins the nomination that shows he has a lot of support among the left that vote democrats?

People are going in a dizzy about Biden crushing Bernie and Warren.

If Biden wins the nomination, that footage of him will be plastered wall to wall in the general and will kill much of that support. You don't see that footage plastered now.

And also, Biden is going largely by name recognition alone and his relation to Obama. Unlike Bernie who is known for his actual policies.

[Hobb]

Biden doesn't stand a chance in the general, Trump can still beat him most of all in that crowd.

That's your personal opinion, which is not what the polls are showing. Even FOX and Rasmussen show Biden ahead of Trump by a comfortable margin.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

Edit: As a side note if Bernie did some how win the nomination, the polls show him beating Trump as well but not by as large of a margin.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...eral_election/

[Fugus]

That's your personal opinion, which is not what the polls are showing. Even FOX and Rasmussen show Biden ahead of Trump by a comfortable margin.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

Edit: As a side note if Bernie did some how win the nomination, the polls show him beating Trump as well but not by as large of a margin.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...eral_election/

I understand the polls, I also understand that Biden isn't leading because of his policies, he is leading due to name recognition and his relationship to Obama. When his policies actually come under scrutiny, he is done.

He actually has a CSPAN interview where he is supporting cutting Medicare and Social Security. What do you think that will do to his numbers when the public actually gets reminded of that every day?

As compared to Sanders who is known strictly because of his policies and the more his policies are known, the more popular he becomes.


Biden is the one person in that group that Trump can beat because of his policies and the moment you hit the general, you would see his CSPAN interview going from wall to wall killing Biden's support.

[DarkTZeratul]

Yes, most will, now split up most by ~25, and put anger into the mix, and you could get some interesting results.

That is literally the opposite of what I said is typical. The field usually starts large and narrows down over time, and the majority of people will shift their support to the whoever ultimately wins the nomination.

[Endus]

We haven't even had a single debate yet. I don't expect anyone to bow out based purely on polling when campaigns haven't even really kicked off in earnest yet.

I'm gonna criticize the idea that there hasn't been a debate yet, and thus it's fine.

I think, if you go into a debate with more than 5 candidates, it's going to be a shitshow. It's going to be chaos, in a bad way, and it's going to open the floor for a radical to come up the middle as everyone else is backbiting.

Literally what happened to the Republicans in 2016, leaving them with Trump.

If you're not in the Top 5, you're probably never going to have any shot at the Presidency. So stop wasting people's time, before we get to the debates. Bow out early, and let the people, and candidates, focus on what's important.


Also, make the debates friendly. Ideally, you'd want your ticket to be a twosome of candidates from the debates. Say the top 5, in order, are Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren, Booker. Have your primary be between a Biden/Warren ticket, a Harris/Booker ticket, and Sanders/Whoeverthefuck. Sanders gets Whoeverthefuck because the guy's not a Democrat to begin with; he can work it out himself since he's such an outsider.

Edit: The proposed entries above were literally just taking the top 5 off the poll results, kicking Sanders out by himself, and then giving the #1 the #3 and #2 the #4. That's it. No other thought went into those tickets and I'm not saying that's how it should play out automatically.

[Grapemask]

I'm all for choice, but pretty much the entire bottom 15 need to drop out. Even they know that they're not even bringing anything new to the field.

[jeezusisacasual]

Let the debates and policies goals / agenda laid out before anything else is said. Polls picked Clinton to win and we all seen how that turned out.