2021-2022 NBA Thread

[xskarma]

PJ Tucker and Kyle Lowry "warming up with intent to play" today. This has been Heat speak for "these guys will play" cause they have been saying the same about Struss and he hasn;t missed a second.


Rob Williams questionable with a left knee soreness, which the last time it happened meant he was out several games again. Sucks for him to have lingering problems with the knee and sucks for the Celtics to not have him available when things were just starting to click.

Celtics have yet to have a game with a perfectly healthy roster this post season, there's always been at least 1, and sometimes more, rotation players out.

[PhaelixWW]

Celtics have yet to have a game with a perfectly healthy roster this post season, there's always been at least 1, and sometimes more, rotation players out.

That's pretty standard for all teams in the postseason.

Edit: In fact, just doing a check of the final four, Miami and Boston had 4/13 and 3/13 games with a full roster, while GSW and Dallas have had 0/13 and 0/15 games with a full roster.

Then, if we want to count total player-games missed in the playoffs, it goes Miami with 10, Boston with 15, Dallas with 21, and GSW with... 29.

If we want to go really deep and check the average of total playoff game experience missing per game, it's Boston with 27.2, Dallas with 34.3, Miami with 67.1, and GSW with... 130.8.

That's not exactly a fair contest, of course, since Iguodala has 170 games of playoff experience and has missed 10/13 of the Dubs' playoff games so far this season. But his playoff experience is one of the main reasons he's on the roster to begin with, and the Warriors haven't been able to capitalize on it pretty much at all.

[Northern Goblin]

Not gonna lie... that game nearly gave me a heart attack.

I spent the first half raging that it was going to be another shit the bed game. Then they show up in the 3rd, begin to properly control the game, then that 4th quarter was magic.

But if they plan to steal on the road they have to do much better.

[xskarma]

Edit: In fact, just doing a check of the final four, Miami and Boston had 4/13 and 3/13 games with a full roster, while GSW and Dallas have had 0/13 and 0/15 games with a full roster.

This is just nonsense when you look at actual availability though. Rob was available for 3 games and played some minutes in 2 of them, but it was very apparent he was not properly healthy at all yet and needed more rest and conditioning. That's like saying the Heat had Kyle Lowry available late in the Sixers series. He was out there some minutes, but he was a detriment to his team and extremely gimpy. Both players were also immediately shut down again after they tried to play (Rob Williams for a 2nd time now).

You can say "but they were active!" but that's just assinine.

And that's not getting into things like players technically missing, but in practice been gone most of the season already and the difference between starters missing, playoff rotation players missing and bench players missing, cause there's a HUGE difference in those too. Celtics have been missing Sam Hauser for most of the playoffs, but he was unlikely to get minutes anyway, so why even count him?

Playoff experience is an even more wack stat. Who the fuck cares? Someone was in the playoffs for 10 years. Well gratz, I guess, you're old? Well done. No one cares about playoff experience. Ja Morant has almost none, and I'm pretty sure that him being missing was a big part of the reason the Grizz lost their series. So yeah, spare me this stat.

[PhaelixWW]

I spent the first half raging that it was going to be another shit the bed game. Then they show up in the 3rd, begin to properly control the game, then that 4th quarter was magic.

But if they plan to steal on the road they have to do much better.

To be fair, it wouldn't have been a shit-the-bed game, regardless. They didn't play poorly in the first half, aside from a few stupid turnovers. Dallas just kept making contested 3 after contested 3. There's not much you can do against that except shake your head and wait for them to cool off.

I mean, the Warriors were shooting 53.3% from 3 and 51.2% overall at the half. It's just that Dallas was 55.6% from 3 on nearly twice as many attempts (15/27 vs. 8/15).

They weren't nearly as sloppy here as they were in some of those later games against Memphis.

[Northern Goblin]

Compare it to the first game where they controlled the court a lot more, and didn't let the pace of the game get away from them.

Sure, Dallas hit a ridiculous number of contested 3's, but the tempo of the game went as such where they had the opportunity to do so over and over again. Third quarter was an excellent example of how the Warriors gameplan should have gone, keeping the Mavs low scoring and slowing the pace down.

Had they not adjusted at half time, and continued to run into what seemed like a brick wall, it would have been. The strategy seemed all wrong that first half.

[PhaelixWW]

This is just nonsense when you look at actual availability though. Rob was available for 3 games and played some minutes in 2 of them, but it was very apparent he was not properly healthy at all yet and needed more rest and conditioning. That's like saying the Heat had Kyle Lowry available late in the Sixers series. He was out there some minutes, but he was a detriment to his team and extremely gimpy. Both players were also immediately shut down again after they tried to play (Rob Williams for a 2nd time now).

You can say "but they were active!" but that's just assinine.

And that's not getting into things like players technically missing, but in practice been gone most of the season already and the difference between starters missing, playoff rotation players missing and bench players missing, cause there's a HUGE difference in those too. Celtics have been missing Sam Hauser for most of the playoffs, but he was unlikely to get minutes anyway, so why even count him?

I mean... you're the one who opened the door:

Celtics have yet to have a game with a perfectly healthy roster this post season, there's always been at least 1, and sometimes more, rotation players out.

So you want to just count meaningful players? How about a minimum of 15 MPG on average this season? Boston has 8 missed player-games (Smart x2, Horford x1, Williams x5), Miami has 10 (Lowry x8, Butler x1, Dedmon x1), Dallas has 18 (Luka x3, Hardaway Jr. x15), and GSW has 16 (Iguodala x10, GP2 x6). And really, GP2 should be 7 games because he was injured <3 minutes into the last game he played, but whatever.

Wanna dig deeper? At >25 MPG, it's Boston 8, Miami 9, Dallas 18, and GSW 0.

So even at that level (basically only starters, as opposed to including rotation players, as you stated), Boston has had it easier than Miami and Dallas.

Also, keep in mind my original point was:

That's pretty standard for all teams in the postseason.

I just objected to the implication that Boston has had it harder than average when the truth is quite the opposite.

Playoff experience is an even more wack stat. Who the fuck cares?

Playoff experience is wack?

...


Bruh...


Lulz.

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Compare it to the first game where they controlled the court a lot more, and didn't let the pace of the game get away from them.

Yes, part of the start to Game 2 was Dallas playing with fire and passion because of Game 1. The point is that the Warriors knew it wasn't going to last. They took the punch and then came back swinging in the second half.

Sure, Dallas hit a ridiculous number of contested 3's, but the tempo of the game went as such where they had the opportunity to do so over and over again. Third quarter was an excellent example of how the Warriors gameplan should have gone, keeping the Mavs low scoring and slowing the pace down.

That worked because the Mavs were gassed.

Had they not adjusted at half time, and continued to run into what seemed like a brick wall, it would have been. The strategy seemed all wrong that first half.

Nah. I mean, they definitely could have played better. That's almost always true. The turnovers, specifically, continue to be a pain, and many of those first-half turnovers were just dumb. And they could have played with a bit more defensive intensity.

But they just played okay, not badly. Sure, strategy almost always changes at halftime; but the strategy last night didn't so much change as did the success they had with it. I mean, the Warriors had 23 attempts in the paint and 15 attempts at 3s in the first half. In the second half, that changed to 25 and 13, so not a major shift. It's just that their cuts into the paint were far more effective against a tired Dallas team.

The defense tightened, the turnovers mostly stopped. And Dallas stopped shooting the lights out. None of those things are strategy shifts.

[xskarma]

I just objected to the implication that Boston has had it harder than average when the truth is quite the opposite.

I never implied or suggested anything like that. That's how you chose to read it.

Celtics have yet to have a game with a perfectly healthy roster this post season, there's always been at least 1, and sometimes more, rotation players out.

That was my complaint.

I was wondering why you made such a deal about it.

Every team is or has missed players, no one saying they are not. I just wish the Celtics were healthy for once to see them at full strength, cause as a Celtics fan I;d love to see them at full war strength going up against the best of the best in the NBA.

These gimped series still count the same, but they don't feel quite the same.

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Oh, and Lowry seems okay again after his absence. Dude is everywhere these opening minutes.

[PhaelixWW]

I never implied or suggested anything like that. That's how you chose to read it.

Celtics have yet to have a game with a perfectly healthy roster this post season, there's always been at least 1, and sometimes more, rotation players out.

That was my complaint.

You made a point of singling out the Celtics when pretty much every team has that problem in the playoffs. It's also wrong, because, as I pointed out, Boston has had 3 games with their full roster.

Take Game 1 against the Bucks, for example. The Celtics had all 15 players active, and everyone played in the game except for Juwan Morgan, who literally has played 4 minutes this year. So what if 5 of the 15 only came in for two minutes of garbage time at the end of the game?

I was wondering why you made such a deal about it.

I pointed it out in depth because Boston has actually had it better than most.

Every team is or has missed players, no one saying they are not. I just wish the Celtics were healthy for once to see them at full strength, cause as a Celtics fan I;d love to see them at full war strength going up against the best of the best in the NBA.

These gimped series still count the same, but they don't feel quite the same.

You're telling that to a Warriors fan who hasn't seen a fully healthy squad in three years, regular season included. Pardon me if I find your complaint a tad uncompelling and tonedeaf. It just feels like you're incapable of appreciating what you have.

It's like a billionaire complaining about the cost of his groceries; it doesn't tend to go over well with others.

[xskarma]

Well, fuck this game in particular. No telling who's going to be injured tomorrow after this, hopefully everyone is alright after treatment the next 2 days.

As to this:

"Celtics have turned the ball over on 22 percent of their possessions tonight."

The fact we were still in it to some degree despite that, makes me hope that this abberation can be put behind the team and they can just get back to normal next game.

[Pendulous]

Utah was fully healthy finally this year for the playoffs. Didn't friggin matter at all, but still.

[ProphetFlume]

Green hitting that 3 showed this is really one of those games (or at least halves) where mavs lose every coin flip.

[PhaelixWW]

Green hitting that 3 showed this is really one of those games (or at least halves) where mavs lose every coin flip.

Hey, now, it was only a 2, not a 3.

[xskarma]

Warriors about to cruise to the Finals where they can rest and wait for whoever comes out of the East Finals rock fight. Definitely the team to beat for the title. And have been since Steph came back from injury late in the season.

[ProphetFlume]

Hey, now, it was only a 2, not a 3.

Durant Toe Syndrome

[PhaelixWW]

Warriors about to cruise to the Finals where they can rest and wait for whoever comes out of the East Finals rock fight. Definitely the team to beat for the title. And have been since Steph came back from injury late in the season.

And the home court advantage is huge.

I was definitely tense at the end of the season, not just watching the Mavericks record, but also the Heat, Bucks, Celtics and Sixers. It was all very close right up to the end. The Warriors had to win the last 5 games of the season to stay ahead, and only the Miami loss on the final day (against the Magic, no less) dropped them into a tie in which the Dubs had the tie-breaker by virtue of a 2-0 head-to-head record. They'd won the previous 6 in a row to stay ahead of the Warriors before that.

Granted, at that point I didn't think the Heat were likely to be the potential Finals opponent.

I'm still rooting for the Celtics to come out of the East, but I'd love for the series to go to 7 games, of course. If the Warriors end up getting to and losing in the Finals, I'd much rather it be to the Celtics than the Heat.

[xskarma]

I'm still rooting for the Celtics to come out of the East, but I'd love for the series to go to 7 games, of course. If the Warriors end up getting to and losing in the Finals, I'd much rather it be to the Celtics than the Heat.

I'd also MUCH rather lose to the Warriors then to the Heat, and not cause it means we made the Finals.

Playoff outcomes, Ranked:

1) Win the title
2) Lose the title
3) Lose to the Bucks
4) Lose to the Nets
5) Lose to the Sixers
6) Lose to the Raptors
...
...
...
99) Lose to the Heat
100) Don't make the playoffs

I just really, really dislike this Heat team. Losing to them in the ECF is basically the worst possible outcome this post season, even worse than losing to the Nets in Rd 1. All this effort just to lose to the least likeable team not called the Lakers is just....ugh.

I'D RATHER HAVE RUSSEL WESTBROOK ON MY TEAM THEN LOSE TO THE HEAT. >

[PhaelixWW]

I'D RATHER HAVE RUSSEL WESTBROOK ON MY TEAM THEN LOSE TO THE HEAT. >

Woof. That's.... wow. Just wow.

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Man... Warriors are 3-0 and Nate Silver still has no love for the Warriors.



Then again, his model's been 'shipping the Celtics since the end of the regular season.

[xskarma]

Woof. That's.... wow. Just wow.

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Man... Warriors are 3-0 and Nate Silver still has no love for the Warriors.



Then again, his model's been 'shipping the Celtics since the end of the regular season.

His model is a sham. The only time it's MAYBE a little accurate is if there's no injuries, cause that's what kept the GSW score so low in his end of season rankings.

And just looking at it, he says it;s basically 50-50 if the Celtics or Heat make the Finals, but the Celtics have nearly double the chance to win the Finals than the Heat. That makes absolutely NO sense.

[PhaelixWW]

His model is a sham. The only time it's MAYBE a little accurate is if there's no injuries, cause that's what kept the GSW score so low in his end of season rankings.

Well, "supposedly" his model takes into account full strength values and playoff rotation changes.

But yeah, it's not doing so well. It also had the SF Giants near the bottom of the pack at 74-88 last year in MLB, where they ended up with a franchise-record 107 wins, so I'm not exactly surprised.

And just looking at it, he says it;s basically 50-50 if the Celtics or Heat make the Finals, but the Celtics have nearly double the chance to win the Finals than the Heat. That makes absolutely NO sense.

It's theoretically based on simulated games. Since the Warriors are a 95% likelihood to reach the Finals according to the model, it must think that the Celtics have a much better shot (85%-ish?) at beating the Warriors than the Heat.

I think I'll still root for the Celtics, though, because fuck the Heat.

Keep in mind the fact that part of the reason the Heat chance to make the Finals is as high as it is is because they're currently leading 2-1. And the Celtics still have the higher percentage. Before the start of the ECF, it was a 70-30% split.



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Any predictions ahead of tonight's game?

A whole slew of players on both sides are "questionable" to play. I think the Celtics need to just get out in front and take an early lead to keep this game from becoming another slog. Miami knows that if Boston were to lose this game that it would pretty much ice the series, so if they smell blood in the water...

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see an ejection or two... maybe some early foul trouble. If Smart doesn't play, then I can see the Heat going after Tatum hard.

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I think the Celtics need to just get out in front and take an early lead to keep this game from becoming another slog.

Well... an 18-1 start is a good way to get out in front, I guess.

Even without Smart, the Celtic defense is doing outstanding so far.

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So, yeah, just what the doctor ordered:



Took that early lead and never let them get back in it. Boston's defense was outstanding, even without Smart in the game. Horford was a huge part of the game tonight.

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Before the start of the ECF, it was a 70-30% split.

Somewhat predictably, 538 has the Celtics back up at 64% now that the series is tied at 2, despite the Heat still having home-court advantage for the remaining three games.