2023-2024 NBA Thread

[Coniferous]

Man... there is some ugliness going on with The Suns right now and I almost can't blame them;
Suns refused to extend Ayton, which sounds terrible on paper but...
I think we need a little context here. Max for Ayton is 173m for 5years, and if he gets the All-Star game, that jumps to 200ish for 5. That's more than D Book is making. As great as Ayton is and could be, he isn't better than Book and will never be more valuable... I'm big on Ayton, I've been championing his skill set for a few years now BUT.... In the Sun's defense not extending him makes him a Restricted Free Agent, the max a team could offer him at that point is 4 years 127m which is significantly less than the max extension on the table.
I don't want to say it's good business, but it sort of is. He's an RFA, Suns can retain him for less than a full extension coming from them. So the Suns have him for this season and basically next season, and if another team offer him 2-4 years, they can match that and will keep him for another 3 to 5 seasons, all for less than a rookie max extension. But it sounds shitty, because I like Ayton and I think the Suns should keep him with Book, but then you look at the Kyrie or Simmons, or any other player that's been forcing their way out of teams and well... I get it, both sides are shitty to each other right now.

It's funny how teams' ability to pay their own guys more, with the salary cap, seems to hurt teams when they try to resign their own guys. In the NFL there was always the idea of the "hometown discount" where guys signed extensions somewhat earlier at slightly lower amounts, in the NBA it seems like there's a "hometown premium".

[StillMcfuu]

It's funny how teams' ability to pay their own guys more, with the salary cap, seems to hurt teams when they try to resign their own guys. In the NFL there was always the idea of the "hometown discount" where guys signed extensions somewhat earlier at slightly lower amounts, in the NBA it seems like there's a "hometown premium".

NFL contracts blow my mind most of the time. Those guys get very little in the way of guaranteed money, one injury and they are getting paid 25% of what they should in a year, and the team keeps raking in the money the whole time.

NBA's returning veteran/star premium is almost certainly entirely due to small market teams getting to keep big players (cough* Bucks and Kareem type situation), you also have to take into consideration that teams have more of a hard minimum salary for the whole team where the NFL has one, but because a lot of the contracts aren't guarenteed, they might not pay players their full "on the books salary" and will be under that cap.

Where I think the NBA is getting out of control with "player empowerment", I feel the NFLPA needs to go a lot harder on the NFL for their players.

[Coniferous]

NFL contracts blow my mind most of the time. Those guys get very little in the way of guaranteed money, one injury and they are getting paid 25% of what they should in a year, and the team keeps raking in the money the whole time.

NBA's returning veteran/star premium is almost certainly entirely due to small market teams getting to keep big players (cough* Bucks and Kareem type situation), you also have to take into consideration that teams have more of a hard minimum salary for the whole team where the NFL has one, but because a lot of the contracts aren't guarenteed, they might not pay players their full "on the books salary" and will be under that cap.

Where I think the NBA is getting out of control with "player empowerment", I feel the NFLPA needs to go a lot harder on the NFL for their players.

The reason the NBA’s small market teams pay more is because they have to - the max contract is higher for signing your own free agent than someone else’s. It’s kinda weird that big market teams who can convince free agents to come are prevented from paying as much as the team you start on.

Regarding guaranteed contracts - meh. Both leagues guarantee that players get around 50% of revenue. If someone gets hurt in the NFL and gets cut, the money they would have made goes to other players who actually play. Since it’s not like these guys are paupers, I kind of prefer that because it leads to less nonsense of expired contracts being passed around or franchises devastated for years by a single catastrophic injury. And the nfl has guarantees if you negotiate for it, the signing bonus is guaranteed.

[StillMcfuu]

The reason the NBA’s small market teams pay more is because they have to - the max contract is higher for signing your own free agent than someone else’s. It’s kinda weird that big market teams who can convince free agents to come are prevented from paying as much as the team you start on.

Regarding guaranteed contracts - meh. Both leagues guarantee that players get around 50% of revenue. If someone gets hurt in the NFL and gets cut, the money they would have made goes to other players who actually play. Since it’s not like these guys are paupers, I kind of prefer that because it leads to less nonsense of expired contracts being passed around or franchises devastated for years by a single catastrophic injury. And the nfl has guarantees if you negotiate for it, the signing bonus is guaranteed.

I understand the pay difference i was saying that a reason for the returning player contracts being higher was likely to drive team empowerment for small market teams. Easier to resign a player if they are going to make 10% more, even if the team is small market. The reason why players leave even though they'd get larger contracts is tied to things like jersey sales and advertising, ie Kawhi Leonard in San Antonio (granted you could make the argument that was just his excuse to force his way out. But I'm sure he was tired of doing commercials for piggily wiggly as well)

[xskarma]

I understand the pay difference i was saying that a reason for the returning player contracts being higher was likely to drive team empowerment for small market teams. Easier to resign a player if they are going to make 10% more, even if the team is small market. The reason why players leave even though they'd get larger contracts is tied to things like jersey sales and advertising, ie Kawhi Leonard in San Antonio (granted you could make the argument that was just his excuse to force his way out. But I'm sure he was tired of doing commercials for piggily wiggly as well)

I think at some point the player salaries also get so absurd that it's easy for them to say they'll take 10% less and be in Miami or California and still be fabulously wealthy, and as you say with more attention to their brand with more chances for better advertising.

Giannis is a real one in that regard, sticking with the Bucks.

[StillMcfuu]

I think at some point the player salaries also get so absurd that it's easy for them to say they'll take 10% less and be in Miami or California and still be fabulously wealthy, and as you say with more attention to their brand with more chances for better advertising.

Giannis is a real one in that regard, sticking with the Bucks.

Ohh 100%, and to be fair to Giannis, he is becoming the biggest thing since LeBron, he can go anywhere and fans will follow.

Its a bit ironic that the Bucks are the initial team to get fucked over by "player empowerment" with Kareem and now they have Giannis who is leading the charge of getting it done with your franchise. I'd argue Lillard is at the top of that list, LeBron is also there, he is a real one going back to Cleveland even though he already experienced how little they would do for him.

[Coniferous]

Anyone else thrilled by the early returns on the James Harden Rule? All the bullshit artists who've been ruining the league with flopping - Harden, Doncic, Young - are off to bad start because they can't get nonsense foul calls anymore so they have to actually play the game.

Harden's free throw rate is half of what it was last year, and 35% of its peak. Doncic and Young have both seen their rates drop by about a third. And all three are also struggling to score from the field without the threat of drawing nonsense fouls that they've built their game around - Harden's EFG% is down to .442, Doncic is .494, and Young is .485. Without the ability to bait fouls, all three have become bad players.

I'm hopeful that they hold the line (but they won't). It's just nice to see validation that these guys are bullshit artists who have been ruining the game with their "step back then jump forward and throw up hands" game.

- - - Updated - - -

Ohh 100%, and to be fair to Giannis, he is becoming the biggest thing since LeBron, he can go anywhere and fans will follow.

Its a bit ironic that the Bucks are the initial team to get fucked over by "player empowerment" with Kareem and now they have Giannis who is leading the charge of getting it done with your franchise. I'd argue Lillard is at the top of that list, LeBron is also there, he is a real one going back to Cleveland even though he already experienced how little they would do for him.

The big difference between Giannis and Lebron is the Bucks actually created a competitive core around Giannis. The Cavs had NOTHING on their roster when Lebron left - making it even more incredible that he led that team to 60 wins. The year after he left they were by far the worst team in the NBA, 29th in offense and defense, after being 6th and 7th the year before (and basically only losing Lebron). Young Lebron was more incredible than almost anyone remembers.

[PhaelixWW]

Anyone else thrilled by the early returns on the James Harden Rule?

YAAAASSSSSS!

I believe I've mentioned a time or three how much I hate the flopping "fauxls".

As far as Harden's possible productivity going forward, I'm reminded of this post:

That's okay. Harden will just take over lead defender duties.

...

...

...

[xskarma]

Double OT loss. Again. Season is 6 games old and Celtics have been in 3 OT games.

also:

"The Celtics just went 2 of 26 from 3 in their loss at Washington. That’s tied for the second worst 3P% by any team ever (min. 25 3PA)."

When it's not the defense that's failing, it;s the offense.

Early season, new coaching staff, new defensive strategy, I know but, we can't keep playing games like this or it will kill the team.

Praying we can get some continuity the next few games and not this Jekyll and Hyde stuff.

[Coniferous]

Draymond Green:

"Can I also say how satisfying it's been to watch the game of basketball without all those bullshit calls? I'm sorry, I'm not supposed to curse in interviews, right? Can I say how satisfying it is to watch the game without all those terrible calls. Guys cheating the game and grabbing guys and getting the foul. I've been really enjoying watching basketball this year. I kind of had stopped watching the NBA a bit because it was just too flailing and flopping and guys cheating the game and getting free throws. So I think that's been great. I would be remiss if I didn't mention that because I think that's been fantastic. You can 100 percent feel it, because you don't have guys doing the garbage to try and draw fouls anymore. I think this game was turning into who can draw the most fouls? Nobody wants to watch that and you definitely don't want to play in a game like that. So you can feel the difference out there for sure. It's just more pure basketball and that's great for our game."

Steph Curry: "I've been watching around the league and for the most part, I'd say about 9 out of 10 calls that used to go the other way are not, for good reason. There's probably some that are still in that gray area where they'll get more consistent, but it's great for the game. I know a lot of fans are loving it. The defensive-minded players are loving it, for us to put the ball in the basket, focus on that. I've tried to my entire career so I don't think it's a huge adjustment, but I like it."

I've been pessimistic that this rule change is going to stick, but maybe I was wrong! The thing I underestimated is how much everyone hated the way Harden played, and it's possible that included the refs, so people are thrilled to make the change.

Some simple numbers on how ridiculous Harden was: Curry and Harden have very similar shot profiles, both taking about half their shots from 3. Curry is good because he hits a huge number of them, 43% from the field, but only draws 4.2 foul shots per game for his career. Harden is actually an only slightly above average shooter - 36% from the field, but he makes up the gap by taking 8.7 foul shots per game!

An extra 4 free throws might seem like a small thing but here's what it does: Last year Harden's EFG% (field goal percentage adjusted for threes, excluding free throws) was .551, relative to a league average of .538. So only slightly better than average (in contrast, Curry's was .605).

However, once you factor in his fouls, his TS% was .619, relative to a league average of .572. Which means that most of his value as a player is tied up in his ability to draw fouls and make a high percentage of free throws. I am a bit worried that he was able to draw 19 free throws on Friday, which is fucking absurd, but hopefully that was an anomaly.

[PhaelixWW]

Harden is actually an only slightly above average shooter - 36% from the field, but he makes up the gap by taking 8.7 foul shots per game!

That's his career average. From 2016 to 2020, the height of his flop-game, he averaged 11 shots per game. 2020-2021 was marred by injury, so he wasn't willing to draw that intentional contact and was "only" at 7.4.

[xskarma]

That second quarter by the Celtics against the Bulls was *chef's kiss*.

Started slow, went down by 9 points, Ime calls time out, straightens the team out, and they go on a tear, mostly built on just really solid defense across the board.

Went from down 9 points to up 8 points at the end of the quarter. Hopefully that's a sign for the rest of the game and the season.

Need more like this!

[PhaelixWW]

Hopefully that's a sign for the rest of the game...

Clearly you jinxed them.

[xskarma]

Clearly you jinxed them.

-_-

They played well for a whole nother quarter, but this 4th quarter collapse is just...mindboggling. Every bad habit, every dumb play, every lack of urgency, every breakdown in basic defense that they showed in earlier that they had avoided through 3 quarters, came out in that 4th. Just epic collapse.

And the worst thing is that the average pundit is going to just look at that 4th quarter and the loss and say they are a bad team. They're not, they're just maddingly inconsistent, and puke on their shoes at the worst possible times.

[Coniferous]

2016 Thunder - well we lost Durant, but we still can build around Westbrook. Maybe that'll work.

Voiceover: It did not work.

2019 Rockets: Hey we can get Westbrook for the low, low price of Chris Paul and 2 first round picks? He's not a great fit for our offense, but maybe that'll work!

Voiceover: In fact, it did not work.

2020 Wizards: We can upgrade from Wall to Westbrook, and all it takes is a lottery protected first rounder! Maybe that'll work.

Voiceover: Obviously, it did not work.

2021 Lakers: We can get Westbrook, a proven star, by giving up a few rotation players! Maybe that'll work.

Voiceover: uhh... yeah it's not working.

While I joke, this Lakers trade could be looked back on as an enormous, contender sabotaging blunder. Westbrook fits with the Lakers the way oil fits with water; meanwhile the 3 players the Lakers gave up (Kuzma, KCP, and Harrell) are numbers 1, 3 and 4 in minutes on a 5-2 Wizards team. Not that they are good, but Westbrook makes the team worse when he's on the floor. It's amazing that people keep taking chances on this guy. It seems like every single team that has traded for him would undo the trade in retrospect (except maybe the Wizards, but only because they got so much from the Lakers).

So far, the Lakers have a net rating of +5 when Westbrook sits, and -3 when he plays. Ugh.

[PhaelixWW]

2016 Thunder - well we lost Durant, but we still can build around Westbrook. Maybe that'll work.

Voiceover: It did not work.

2019 Rockets: Hey we can get Westbrook for the low, low price of Chris Paul and 2 first round picks? He's not a great fit for our offense, but maybe that'll work!

Voiceover: In fact, it did not work.

2020 Wizards: We can upgrade from Wall to Westbrook, and all it takes is a lottery protected first rounder! Maybe that'll work.

Voiceover: Obviously, it did not work.

2021 Lakers: We can get Westbrook, a proven star, by giving up a few rotation players! Maybe that'll work.

Voiceover: uhh... yeah it's not working.

While I joke, this Lakers trade could be looked back on as an enormous, contender sabotaging blunder. Westbrook fits with the Lakers the way oil fits with water; meanwhile the 3 players the Lakers gave up (Kuzma, KCP, and Harrell) are numbers 1, 3 and 4 in minutes on a 5-2 Wizards team. Not that they are good, but Westbrook makes the team worse when he's on the floor. It's amazing that people keep taking chances on this guy. It seems like every single team that has traded for him would undo the trade in retrospect (except maybe the Wizards, but only because they got so much from the Lakers).

So far, the Lakers have a net rating of +5 when Westbrook sits, and -3 when he plays. Ugh.

I told a friend of mine back in the 2016-17 season when we were playing fantasy basketball that there was zero chance that Westbrook would ever win a ring.

Although he's a stat machine (...my friend ran the league, made triple-doubles the number one for bonus points, and picked Westbrook in the first round of the fantasy draft, go fig...), Westbrook doesn't really play well with other talent, can't carry a team to the Finals all by himself, yet commands too much of a salary to play with enough talent to make up for his lack of team play.

I'll admit, when I heard that he was joining LeBron and AD on the Lakers, I wondered if maybe I would have to eat my words, but so far I'm not too worried.

[StillMcfuu]

-_-

They played well for a whole nother quarter, but this 4th quarter collapse is just...mindboggling. Every bad habit, every dumb play, every lack of urgency, every breakdown in basic defense that they showed in earlier that they had avoided through 3 quarters, came out in that 4th. Just epic collapse.

And the worst thing is that the average pundit is going to just look at that 4th quarter and the loss and say they are a bad team. They're not, they're just maddingly inconsistent, and puke on their shoes at the worst possible times.

I watched that game, Celtics just got hot in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. I don't want to say they were forcing shots, but a lot of the shots that were dropping in the 2nd and 3rd were heavily contested and come the 4th those same shots stopped dropping, as you'd expect from a strong defensive team. Bulls played the same game throughout, hard offense and hard defense, Celtics never adjusted their offense and were essentially getting a lot of luck in the 2nd-3rd. I said to friends at the bar, "even if the Bulls lose, they really haven't, Celtics are just getting home town rolls" and then when the game turned around everyone looked at me like I was psychic. But it was just one team playing solidly on both sides and one team had luck and momentum, and that never holds out.

[Coniferous]

I told a friend of mine back in the 2016-17 season when we were playing fantasy basketball that there was zero chance that Westbrook would ever win a ring.

Although he's a stat machine (...my friend ran the league, made triple-doubles the number one for bonus points, and picked Westbrook in the first round of the fantasy draft, go fig...), Westbrook doesn't really play well with other talent, can't carry a team to the Finals all by himself, yet commands too much of a salary to play with enough talent to make up for his lack of team play.

I'll admit, when I heard that he was joining LeBron and AD on the Lakers, I wondered if maybe I would have to eat my words, but so far I'm not too worried.

It's gotten really bad... teams are just leaving him open and daring him to shoot threes, and he's obliging. Guy is not an NBA player unless something changes soon.

[PhaelixWW]

It's gotten really bad... teams are just leaving him open and daring him to shoot threes, and he's obliging. Guy is not an NBA player unless something changes soon.

The guy's really a two-trick pony. He can either a) drive to the rim (which he does extremely well), or he can b) drive to the rim and kick it out to a shooter (which is why he gets a lot of assists).

But his EFG% is crap. He's literally always been below the league average, generally by like 4-6%.

And you'd think that someone who can get to the rim like he does should have a boosted EFG% from all the easier layups.

[Coniferous]

The guy's really a two-trick pony. He can either a) drive to the rim (which he does extremely well), or he can b) drive to the rim and kick it out to a shooter (which is why he gets a lot of assists).

But his EFG% is crap. He's literally always been below the league average, generally by like 4-6%.

And you'd think that someone who can get to the rim like he does should have a boosted EFG% from all the easier layups.

And if you think his regular season EFG is bad, look at his playoff numbers since Durant left... they are stunningly bad.