1. #4261
    The Unstoppable Force CommunismWillWin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    The 2016 primary numbers say otherwise.

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    They are not motivated to vote if that was the reason they would be motivated as voting is the only way to get power back.
    Quote Originally Posted by kaelleria View Post
    Bernie energized them last cycle and still lost by 4 million votes in the primary. The knives are out. Media is actually starting to vet him. AND he's going to be stuck in Washington for at least 2 weeks leading up to the Iowa caucuses. Expect his polling to drop after this debate as CNN will absolutely bring his past.
    And? That does not really change anything about what I said, or how the general election will go. He is still by the far the most popular candidate with the youth.
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  2. #4262
    Quote Originally Posted by CommunismWillWin View Post
    And? That does not really change anything about what I said, or how the general election will go. He is still by the far the most popular candidate with the youth.
    And the youth doesn't participate enough to swing elections, by age he is a boomer it's not inaccurate not sure why that's a problem. As for the general election no one knows how that will go if you do please give me some lottery numbers because from now until November that a million Trump scandals and craziness away.

  3. #4263
    Has to be Sanders. Go with Biden and enjoy another L

  4. #4264
    Immortal Fahrenheit's Avatar
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    Frankly, I like Sanders a little better than Biden, but either is going to be fine with me. In reality, I only care about one thing, who has a better shot at defeating Trump. I'm no political scientist working with a quality polling outfit, but from what I've seen, in the places that really matter (MI, WI, PA, MN) with the groups that really matter, it seems like Biden has a better shot at that than Sanders, so right now, I'm leaning Biden.

    All that being said, were Warren to drop out and Sanders able to consolidate the more progressive primary voters, I think he'd win the nomination. I think Warren and Sanders are splitting the more progressive types fairly evenly whereas Biden isn't losing nearly as much as a percentage of moderates to Mayor Pete & Klobuchar.
    Last edited by Fahrenheit; 2020-01-14 at 04:36 PM.
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  5. #4265
    Quote Originally Posted by Fahrenheit View Post
    Frankly, I like Sanders a little better than Biden, but either is going to be fine with me. In reality, I only care about one thing, and that who has a better shot at defeating Trump. I'm no political scientist working with a quality polling outfit, but from what I've seen, in the places that really matter (MI, WI, PA, MN) with the groups that really matter, it seems like Biden has a better shot at that than Sanders, so right now, I'm leaning Biden.

    All that being said, were Warren to drop out and Sanders able to consolidate the more progressive primary voters, I think he'd win the nomination. I think Warren and Sanders are splitting the more progressive types fairly evenly whereas Biden isn't losing nearly as much moderate to Mayor Pete.
    To answer your consideration:



    Note that Warren is the only one who polls as losing in a run against Trump.

    Female candidates just seem to stand no chance in the american political landscape...

  6. #4266
    Immortal Fahrenheit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    To answer your consideration:



    Note that Warren is the only one who polls as losing in a run against Trump.

    Female candidates just seem to stand no chance in the american political landscape...
    Goes along with most head to head polls I've seen, Biden is typically just outside of MoE against Trump, Sanders is just inside or right on the cusp.
    Women will get there in the next decade or two.

    Just a few too many women like my mother out there, "I just didn't like Clinton, there is something unsettling about having a woman President".
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  7. #4267
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    Note that Warren is the only one who polls as losing in a run against Trump.

    Female candidates just seem to stand no chance in the american political landscape...
    I would take these types polls with a grain of salt. If Warren were to make it through to the General I think you'd see much more support thrown behind her than these polls indicate. At this stage people who have "favorites" will stick with theirs as the main choice (even when presented with these head-to-head contests) until they're ruled out which tends to skew the results.

    Admittedly she seems to be dropping in the polls overall which is a shame (she remains my preference), but should she make it through as the nominee I really don't think she'd be less popular than Trump at all.

  8. #4268
    The Unstoppable Force Theodarzna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benggaul View Post
    I would take these types polls with a grain of salt. If Warren were to make it through to the General I think you'd see much more support thrown behind her than these polls indicate. At this stage people who have "favorites" will stick with theirs as the main choice (even when presented with these head-to-head contests) until they're ruled out which tends to skew the results.

    Admittedly she seems to be dropping in the polls overall which is a shame (she remains my preference), but should she make it through as the nominee I really don't think she'd be less popular than Trump at all.
    Warren has the problem of a ton of dirt and a long hilarious track record of lying. I mean even now with her campaigns attempt to #MeToo Sanders, Sanders was an ardent feminist when she was a republican writing impassioned papers calling for deregulation and free market initiatives.

    Warren is a proven liar:
    1. Betrayed on M4A, she has completely waffled.
    2. Plagiarised recipes to sell a Native American cookbook where she calls herself "Cherokee", a point Trump will destroy her with forever. Plus the fact that she materially benefited from the Native America claim, securing jobs because of it.
    3. Said she was Republican in the 80s because she "wasn't political" when she wrote articles calling for deregulation, more over many of her plans essentially are ultimately predicated on a distinctly Biden-esque lens but presented in a way that pleases her largely highly educated and affluent base.

    Warrens entire appeals is to tell that subsection of the electorate that she will ensure they won't end up as poor people. In the end Sanders would do far better since his entire platform is universal.
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  9. #4269
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fahrenheit View Post
    Goes along with most head to head polls I've seen, Biden is typically just outside of MoE against Trump, Sanders is just inside or right on the cusp.
    Women will get there in the next decade or two.

    Just a few too many women like my mother out there, "I just didn't like Clinton, there is something unsettling about having a woman President".


    What people in the US at present would seem to have the most trouble getting elected president, all other things being equal?

    That’s actually an easier question to answer, since there are people in America who huge numbers of Americans will openly admit they would not vote for, even if those people were otherwise “generally well qualified” for office.

    Lets dig into that Gallup poll.

    The two most prominent such groups of people are;
    • Socialists, who quite recently a full 50% of Americans were willing to say they would not vote for
    • Atheists, who 40% of Americans said the same thing about in the same poll.
    • By contrast, 8% of respondents said they wouldn’t vote for a woman.

  10. #4270
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    The problem with this is all the Blue voters are all blobbed up in 2 states. If the dems get 99% of the votes in California and NY, but Trump gets 51% of the vote in all the rest, Trump wins by a landslide...

  11. #4271
    Quote Originally Posted by Theodarzna View Post
    Warren has the problem of a ton of dirt and a long hilarious track record of lying. I mean even now with her campaigns attempt to #MeToo Sanders, Sanders was an ardent feminist when she was a republican writing impassioned papers calling for deregulation and free market initiatives.

    Warren is a proven liar:
    1. Betrayed on M4A, she has completely waffled.
    2. Plagiarised recipes to sell a Native American cookbook where she calls herself "Cherokee", a point Trump will destroy her with forever. Plus the fact that she materially benefited from the Native America claim, securing jobs because of it.
    3. Said she was Republican in the 80s because she "wasn't political" when she wrote articles calling for deregulation, more over many of her plans essentially are ultimately predicated on a distinctly Biden-esque lens but presented in a way that pleases her largely highly educated and affluent base.

    Warrens entire appeals is to tell that subsection of the electorate that she will ensure they won't end up as poor people. In the end Sanders would do far better since his entire platform is universal.
    Additionally, Warren just got played so badly at the last election when Hilary hinted at promised her VP in exchange for not supporting Bernie. There's a case for saying you need someone more ruthless than Bernie-but she's not, she's just less principled.

  12. #4272
    The Lightbringer downnola's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Theodarzna View Post
    Warren has the problem of a ton of dirt and a long hilarious track record of lying. I mean even now with her campaigns attempt to #MeToo Sanders, Sanders was an ardent feminist when she was a republican writing impassioned papers calling for deregulation and free market initiatives.

    Warren is a proven liar:
    1. Betrayed on M4A, she has completely waffled.
    2. Plagiarised recipes to sell a Native American cookbook where she calls herself "Cherokee", a point Trump will destroy her with forever. Plus the fact that she materially benefited from the Native America claim, securing jobs because of it.
    3. Said she was Republican in the 80s because she "wasn't political" when she wrote articles calling for deregulation, more over many of her plans essentially are ultimately predicated on a distinctly Biden-esque lens but presented in a way that pleases her largely highly educated and affluent base.

    Warrens entire appeals is to tell that subsection of the electorate that she will ensure they won't end up as poor people. In the end Sanders would do far better since his entire platform is universal.
    Trump is a proven liar and secured enough electoral college votes to get elected. How does honesty matter in this equation?
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  13. #4273
    The Unstoppable Force Theodarzna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by downnola View Post
    Trump is a proven liar and secured enough electoral college votes to get elected. How does honesty matter in this equation?
    Honesty in a sense matters with credibility towards one's own electorate. Plus if we accept your frame than you agree I am correct that Warren is full of it and none of her policy prescriptions are valid or even trust worthy.

    That isn't a strong case for "Vote for my person".
    Quote Originally Posted by Crissi View Post
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  14. #4274
    Quote Originally Posted by Martymark View Post
    The problem with this is all the Blue voters are all blobbed up in 2 states. If the dems get 99% of the votes in California and NY, but Trump gets 51% of the vote in all the rest, Trump wins by a landslide...
    True, it's a weird democratic system, entirely skewed in favor of the smallest states.

    The whole electoral system is even less democratic than the indirect EU system of electing head officials, and we know how that gets dragged through the coals because people don't get to directly vote on someone's particular name for a seat as EU's president...

  15. #4275
    The Unstoppable Force Theodarzna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    True, it's a weird democratic system, entirely skewed in favor of the smallest states.

    The whole electoral system is even less democratic than the indirect EU system of electing head officials, and we know how that gets dragged through the coals because people don't get to directly vote on someone's particular name for a seat as EU's president...
    It is IMHO strange that a system everyone is aware of is so hotly contested now. I mean is it that great of a burden for Democrats to have to leave two major urban centers and convince people in other states to vote for them? Is that like asking to much to build a broad coalition?
    Quote Originally Posted by Crissi View Post
    i think I have my posse filled out now. Mars is Theo, Jupiter is Vanyali, Linadra is Venus, and Heather is Mercury. Dragon can be Pluto.
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  16. #4276
    Immortal Fahrenheit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    True, it's a weird democratic system, entirely skewed in favor of the smallest states.

    The whole electoral system is even less democratic than the indirect EU system of electing head officials, and we know how that gets dragged through the coals because people don't get to directly vote on someone's particular name for a seat as EU's president...
    EC is bizarre, and something that's a relic of a bygone time. It either needs to be abandoned, or at least brought up to parity by apportioning reps equally. No more of this 1 Wyoming vote counts for what, 6 California votes? In terms of relative EC power.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Theodarzna View Post
    It is IMHO strange that a system everyone is aware of is so hotly contested now. I mean is it that great of a burden for Democrats to have to leave two major urban centers and convince people in other states to vote for them? Is that like asking to much to build a broad coalition?
    The two major urban center are the entire West Coast and like 60% of the East Coast, it's not just NYC, LA, Chicago dominating the landscape.
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  17. #4277
    Quote Originally Posted by Theodarzna View Post
    It is IMHO strange that a system everyone is aware of is so hotly contested now. I mean is it that great of a burden for Democrats to have to leave two major urban centers and convince people in other states to vote for them? Is that like asking to much to build a broad coalition?
    My only objection is that some people's votes are worth relatively less than others. That is like the old oligarchic democracies where wealthy folks got five votes and poor people only one. Except now for some reason it's alright because a lot of people live in one place and less in another...

    In France this would've been punishable by guillotine if you got elected that way.

  18. #4278
    The Unstoppable Force Theodarzna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    My only objection is that some people's votes are worth relatively less than others. That is like the old oligarchic democracies where wealthy folks got five votes and poor people only one. Except now for some reason it's alright because a lot of people live in one place and less in another...

    In France this would've been punishable by guillotine if you got elected that way.
    Given its a federation of states and not a unitary state, it does make sense that this countries Federal Government election would work differently than what is effectively a unitary state. In France, Brittany, Basque Country and Normandy don't have the same political autonomy or power that a US State does.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tipolas View Post
    Additionally, Warren just got played so badly at the last election when Hilary hinted at promised her VP in exchange for not supporting Bernie. There's a case for saying you need someone more ruthless than Bernie-but she's not, she's just less principled.
    She is certainly revealed to be fairly Craven.

    The other big disappointment is AOC. You know what prominent women politicians came to Sanders defense? Tulsi Gabbard pretty much right out of the gate came to Sanders aide, AOC? Nothing and she formerly endorsed Sanders. Warren is certainly craven and calculating; and I do wish Sanders would just hit her as hard as his supporters have been because ultimately a handful of twitter accounts were able to pretty easily reveal she isn't even really a Socialist and given her choice quotes of being "Capitalist to my bones" and her many policy prescriptions and rhetoric boiling down to "Hey, struggle professionals, I'll make sure you never end up like those opiod riddled dregs at the bottom!" is going to cost her in a general.

    Biden's legacy with the Iraq War, trade deals, is essentially the Hillary Formulae but without Wokeness to give it any extra UMPF, and Warren's strategy was increasingly try to ape Sander's aesthetic while ultimately pushing a Clintonite set of policy and now embracing Wokeness as hard as possible and hoping to #MeToo Sanders.

    If Warren's ploy works for her, whatever the outcome if Sanders is driven out; while I won't predict the election results I foresee the coming political paradigm in 5-20 years or whenever the boomer mass die-off happens will become woke capital vs nazbol (in essence if not aesthetics, and excluding fringe groups).
    Quote Originally Posted by Crissi View Post
    i think I have my posse filled out now. Mars is Theo, Jupiter is Vanyali, Linadra is Venus, and Heather is Mercury. Dragon can be Pluto.
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  19. #4279
    Quote Originally Posted by Theodarzna View Post
    Warren has the problem of a ton of dirt and a long hilarious track record of lying. I mean even now with her campaigns attempt to #MeToo Sanders, Sanders was an ardent feminist when she was a republican writing impassioned papers calling for deregulation and free market initiatives.

    Warren is a proven liar:
    1. Betrayed on M4A, she has completely waffled.
    2. Plagiarised recipes to sell a Native American cookbook where she calls herself "Cherokee", a point Trump will destroy her with forever. Plus the fact that she materially benefited from the Native America claim, securing jobs because of it.
    3. Said she was Republican in the 80s because she "wasn't political" when she wrote articles calling for deregulation, more over many of her plans essentially are ultimately predicated on a distinctly Biden-esque lens but presented in a way that pleases her largely highly educated and affluent base.

    Warrens entire appeals is to tell that subsection of the electorate that she will ensure they won't end up as poor people. In the end Sanders would do far better since his entire platform is universal.
    What you consider lies and their importance, while felating Trump is fucking laughable.
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  20. #4280
    The Unstoppable Force Theodarzna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bodakane View Post
    What you consider lies and their importance, while felating Trump is fucking laughable.
    Citations please. :3
    Quote Originally Posted by Crissi View Post
    i think I have my posse filled out now. Mars is Theo, Jupiter is Vanyali, Linadra is Venus, and Heather is Mercury. Dragon can be Pluto.
    сила лунной призмы составляет - Paleo-Conservatism with TERF characteristics. Ashley Frawley and Patrick Deneen are BEA

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