1. #16241
    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    If that were really the case, Bernie would've won the nom in 2016, surely?

    Sexism among voters has an influence, but it does not overcome Democrats in general being ideological cowards. They routinely pick the "safe" option, and routinely that option bites them in the ass come the general election.

    1980/'84? Centrist Walter Mondale was the Dem option, lost to Reagan.
    1988? Dukakis was a safe bet, lost.

    1992/'96? Clinton won. Clinton was also seen as a bit of a wild card, a sax-playing libertine. He legislated more moderately, but the appearance was not so. Also, Ross Perot was spoiling the Republican vote at the time, by 19% of the popular vote in '92.
    2000? Gore "won", but lost. Also, Gore was pretty damned centrist on basically every topic but climate change.
    2004? Kerry. So aggressively moderate.

    2008/2012? Obama, hope and change. Seen as progressive, legislated more centrist, in retrospect.
    2016? Clinton, hard-centrist. Lost.

    So yeah. If there's something the last 40 years shows, it's that moderate centrists who don't fire up the Democratic progressive tend to lose in the general, consistently. The only two winning streaks in there were Clinton and Obama, and they didn't fit that image at the times of their elections, at least.

    - - - Updated - - -



    I wouldn't use "messaging". The proper word is "propaganda". If we're entering a stage where you have to out-propagandize the opponent, because the electorate is too stupid/uninformed/apathetic to make a proper choice, democracy as a system is already collapsing in on itself and you're an election away from catastrophic failure.
    Starlord is absolutely right, which the the data show:

    "Roughly one-quarter of Sanders’s support in Democratic primaries and caucuses in 2016 came from #NeverHillary voters: people who didn’t vote for Clinton in the 2016 general election and who had no intention of doing so. (The #NeverHillary label is a little snarky, but it’s also quite literal: These are people who never voted for Clinton despite being given two opportunities to do so, in the primary and the general election.) This finding comes from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, a poll of more than 50,000 voters conducted by YouGov in conjunction with Harvard University. The CCES asked voters who they voted for in both the primaries and the general election; it also asked voters who didn’t vote in the general election who they would have chosen if they had voted. Here’s the overall breakdown of what Sanders primary voters did in November 2016.2
    What Bernie Sanders primary voters did in November 2016

    Voted for Hillary Clinton 74.3%

    Voted for Donald Trump 12.0

    Voted for Gary Johnson 3.2

    Voted for Jill Stein 4.5

    Voted for other candidates or voted but didn’t recall 2.5

    Didn’t vote but said they would have voted for Clinton 1.6

    Didn’t vote and didn’t say they would have voted Clinton 1.9


    Voters in shaded categories are #NeverHillary voters.

    Source: COOPERATIVE CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION STUDY

    About 74 percent of Sanders’s primary voters also voted for Clinton in November 2016. Another 2 percent didn’t vote but said on the CCES that they would have voted for Clinton if they had voted; it doesn’t seem fair to consider them anti-Clinton voters, so we won’t include them in the #NeverHillary camp. The remaining 24 percent of Sanders voters were #NeverHillary in the general election, however. Of these, about half voted for Trump, while the remaining half voted for Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, another third-party candidate or didn’t vote.3

    Overall, Sanders won 43 percent of the popular vote in Democratic primaries and caucuses in 2016. If 24 percent of that 43 percent were #NeverHillary voters, that means Sanders’s real base was more like 33 percent of the overall Democratic electorate. That isn’t nothing — it could easily carry the plurality in a divided field — and there were plenty of Clinton voters who liked Sanders, so he could pick up some of their votes too. But it does jibe with polls showing that Sanders and Warren together have around 30 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in 2020 and not the 43 percent that Sanders got in 2016.

    You might be tempted to think that these #NeverHillary voters are leftists who thought Clinton was too much of pro-corporate, warmongering centrist. But relatively few of them were. Less than a fifth of them voted for Stein, for example. Instead, these voters were disproportionately likely to describe themselves as moderate or conservative. Among the 31 percent of self-described conservatives who voted for Sanders in the Democratic primaries, more than half were #NeverHillary voters, for example. A large minority of the independents and Republicans who supported Sanders were #NeverHillary voters as well.
    #NeverHillary voters were conservative, not super liberal

    (Chart here)

    A more complicated way to characterize the #NeverHillary vote is via regression analysis. Using the CCES — which permits fairly intricate regression model designs because of its large sample size — I took all of Sanders’s primary voters in 2016 and evaluated a host of variables to see what predicted whether they were #NeverHillary in the general election.

    The most significant variables were, first, whether the voter was a Democrat, and second and third, two policy questions that have proven to be highly predictive of voter preferences in the past: whether the voter thinks that white people benefit from their race and whether the voter wanted to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Non-Democrats, voters who didn’t think whites benefited from their race, and voters who wanted to repeal the ACA were much more likely to be #NeverHillary voters. Voters who were rural, poor, who lived in the South or the Northeast, who were born-again Christians, who were conservatives, and who were military veterans were also somewhat more likely to be #NeverHillary, other factors held equal. Black people, Hispanics, women, liberals, millennials, union members and voters with four-year college degrees were less likely to be #NeverHillary voters."

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-chances-now/

    I would have attributed some small part of that to sexism until I read this and started get a real sense of its magnitude: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/o...sultPosition=2

    Both of these are required reading if you want to have a better sense of what's driving Democratic voters.

    ETA: Democrats have actually won 6 of the last 7 elections. The whole "people don't like moderates thing" doesn't really hold up.
    Last edited by Levelfive; 2020-03-13 at 08:10 PM.

  2. #16242
    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    You are the one mocking the Democratic nominee when he comes out with a very highly Presidential address. You tell me who's detached from reality. I'm not shouting down them, in case you missed reading that the first time. I'm yelling at you, because you're becoming part of the problem, by helping Trump win.

    This all started by you mocking, AGAIN, Biden's behavior, not on policy, but on looks. Ignoring his stutter (did you even know he had one? - more facts for you to digest).




    No you haven't - not this issue. You keep shrilling that "everything is the same as 2016" - when that is not only outright fiction, it borders on lying. NOTHING is the same as 2016, you just think that because your candidate didn't win. And because your candidate lost, you think that everything else is going to be repeated. And it's not.




    We're getting into the "no, you are" bullshit. So let's try this another way. Everything I've quoted from you in this session has been devoid of facts. If you listed something, concrete, that points to Democrats repeating mistakes of 2016, please link it for me again, because I missed it. Otherwise, be open to the idea that you are pushing your feelings rather than objective facts, because your candidate lost.

    Remember, this session here started because you mocked Biden. Not criticized his policies. Made fun of him. Like a school yard bully. And I've been 100% consistent on this - we cannot do that, period. Criticize policies and positions, hell yes. But not personal attacks.

    Oh, yeah - you avoided the question - did you know Biden had a stutter? Do you know how that affects speaking habits?
    Yes, i know about his stutter.

    No, when I said he was losing his mind I was not talking about his stutter. I was talking about things like thinking it makes sense to talk about his hairy legs in a swimming pool, et all.

    No, Biden was not my first choice, like you it was Warren.

    Yes, i did explain how it was the same. You ignored it. We are putting forth the same type of candidate, with the same type of policies and experience, that is closer to old school republican than liberal and we are doing it because we think it is the safe pick. That is the strategy we used in 2016, it is the strategy we are using now. Politically there's virtually no difference between Hillary and Biden. She was an unlikable woman and he's male gaffe machine, other than that, virtually the same thing. Regardless if you understand it or not, that is how the independents in the swing states will likely see it. Once again, i challenge you to explain why those people voted for Trump over Hillary and why those reasons are different now that Biden is the nom. You better hope against hope they just hate Trump more than they are angry for the Dems not listening.

    No, this session started because you, in your fervor, misconstrued something and went nuclear over it, just like you've been doing with Bernie supporters.
    M.A.A.A. Make America Adult Again

  3. #16243
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowferal View Post
    If you prefer Trump regardless who is in the D column, then you're part of the problem.
    You were warned. Sanders or Trump. You and the other Dems chose Trump. That's on you. Enjoy 4 more years.
    Quote Originally Posted by Machismo View Post
    Yes, I think a company should be legally allowed to refuse to serve black people.
    Quote Originally Posted by Orbitus View Post
    I don't know what you are watching, but it isn't fucking reality.
    Hes talking about me saying Joe Biden has dementia. LOL

  4. #16244
    Merely a Setback cubby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bodakane View Post
    Yes, i know about his stutter.

    No, when I said he was losing his mind I was not talking about his stutter. I was talking about things like thinking it makes sense to talk about his hairy legs in a swimming pool, et all.
    So you're just helping out Trump - great. Thanks for clarifying that. And yes, I will shout down anyone who does personal attacks - that only helps Trump, and muddies the waters of people we're trying to win over.


    Quote Originally Posted by Bodakane View Post
    Yes, i did explain how it was the same. You ignored it. We are putting forth the same type of candidate, with the same type of policies and experience, that is closer to old school republican than liberal and we are doing it because we think it is the safe pick. That is the strategy we used in 2016, it is the strategy we are using now. Politically there's virtually no difference between Hillary and Biden. She was an unlikable woman and he's male gaffe machine, other than that, virtually the same thing. Regardless if you understand it or not, that is how the independents in the swing states will likely see it. Once again, i challenge you to explain why those people voted for Trump over Hillary and why those reasons are different now that Biden is the nom. You better hope against hope they just hate Trump more than they are angry for the Dems not listening.
    We are not using the same strategy. You think we are because...why again. How anyone can rationally think "we're doing the same thing as 2016" is beyond me. We know what went wrong, in multiple areas, and we're fixing that this time around. Biden is a great choice for a number of categories - the fact that you don't agree doesn't make you right, it just makes you disagree.

    Do you understand that you thinking you're right, doesn't make you right. And the facts clearly demonstrate that we are doing things much different this time around. How you ask?

    1. we are not underestimating Trump.
    2. we are flooding the midwest states with campaigning - which was ignored in 2016
    3. we are not running Hillary (despite you claiming they are the same candidate, they are not - and the facts back this up)
    4. we are simplifying messaging
    5. we are making this a referendum on Trump's presidency
    6. we are wooing Obama2012----->Trump2016 voters
    7. we are picking a better Vice President candidate

    Much more. It's not at all the same.
    No one is above the law!

  5. #16245
    Quote Originally Posted by Levelfive View Post
    ETA: Democrats have actually won 6 of the last 7 elections. The whole "people don't like moderates thing" doesn't really hold up.
    Except these last several democrats were not moderates. Whether Obama actually was a progressive or not - he spent his second term being firmly moderate/corporatist - he ran on a progressive platform. Bill Clinton was a wave of New Democrat, a progressive compared to the old democratic order. The last democrat before him was Carter, a progressive.

    Using data referred by starlord is where I generally have had to bow out, because if we're going to insist on another four years without first world healthcare, I have to watch my blood pressure. "Let me prove A by proving C instead" is where things start to head south.

  6. #16246
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    The Democrats were warned they had had their choice: "Bernie or Trump". They seemingly want to choose Trump.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jehct View Post
    You were warned. Sanders or Trump. You and the other Dems chose Trump. That's on you. Enjoy 4 more years.
    lol no, Bernie is not entitled to votes on the merit of not being trump. Fuck off with this bullshit ultimatum.
    Last edited by Clone; 2020-03-13 at 08:23 PM.

  7. #16247
    The Unstoppable Force Theodarzna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clone View Post
    lol no, Bernie is not entitled to votes on the merit of not being trump. Fuck off with this bullshit ultimatum.
    Sorry, there is just so much hostility from these Biden Boys, I just can't support a candidate that produces such a toxic culture.

    ^ This logic swings many ways, not just against Sanders.
    Quote Originally Posted by Crissi View Post
    i think I have my posse filled out now. Mars is Theo, Jupiter is Vanyali, Linadra is Venus, and Heather is Mercury. Dragon can be Pluto.
    Tankie Paleo-Conservatism with TERF characteristics / Socialism with My Chemical Romance characteristics. Caramelldansen Nationalism. MySpace was the Garden of Eden, Aimee Terese was right about Warren. Kim Yo-jong supporter and voter.

  8. #16248
    Quote Originally Posted by Theodarzna View Post
    Sorry, there is just so much hostility from these Biden Boys, I just can't support a candidate that produces such a toxic culture.

    ^ This logic swings many ways, not just against Sanders.
    Except one is a response to the behavior of the supporters of a candidate. The post you're comparing it to is literally that Sanders supporter saying, "Give us our way or we'll fucking shoot you." in response to...nothing.

  9. #16249
    Quote Originally Posted by Grapemask View Post
    Except these last several democrats were not moderates. Whether Obama actually was a progressive or not - he spent his second term being firmly moderate/corporatist - he ran on a progressive platform. Bill Clinton was a wave of New Democrat, a progressive compared to the old democratic order. The last democrat before him was Carter, a progressive.

    Using data referred by starlord is where I generally have had to bow out, because if we're going to insist on another four years without first world healthcare, I have to watch my blood pressure. "Let me prove A by proving C instead" is where things start to head south.
    Obama was pretty centrist--he was against gay marriage, and his policy platform wasn't further to the left than Hillary's or Biden's, unless I'm forgetting something, which I may be. Biden came out and voiced his support for gay marriage before Obama had moved on it (yes, may have all been staged, I know, but even at that Obama was tiptoeing into moving left). What Obama did have was a ton of charisma. I do wish people would look at the data from 538 and the nytimes article I keep linking because it shows what motivated those voters, and it's contrary to what we've been telling ourselves.

  10. #16250
    Quote Originally Posted by Grapemask View Post
    Except these last several democrats were not moderates. Whether Obama actually was a progressive or not - he spent his second term being firmly moderate/corporatist - he ran on a progressive platform. Bill Clinton was a wave of New Democrat, a progressive compared to the old democratic order. The last democrat before him was Carter, a progressive.

    Using data referred by starlord is where I generally have had to bow out, because if we're going to insist on another four years without first world healthcare, I have to watch my blood pressure. "Let me prove A by proving C instead" is where things start to head south.
    if you've got something to dispute it beyond "4chan lol" by all means show it.

  11. #16251
    Banned Rochana's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clone View Post
    lol no, Bernie is not entitled to votes on the merit of not being trump. Fuck off with this bullshit ultimatum.
    And neither is the Democratic Party entitled to votes from people who they don't provide policies for.

    Politics isn't a cult. Nobody has to vote for conservative Biden if they don't feel he is someone who will serve them.

  12. #16252
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    The Democrats were warned they had had their choice: "Bernie or Trump". They seemingly want to choose Trump.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    Politics isn't a cult.
    ???????????????????

  13. #16253
    Quote Originally Posted by Clone View Post
    lol no, Bernie is not entitled to votes on the merit of not being trump. Fuck off with this bullshit ultimatum.
    I see you chose Trump. Enjoy 4 more years of the candidate you wanted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Machismo View Post
    Yes, I think a company should be legally allowed to refuse to serve black people.
    Quote Originally Posted by Orbitus View Post
    I don't know what you are watching, but it isn't fucking reality.
    Hes talking about me saying Joe Biden has dementia. LOL

  14. #16254
    Quote Originally Posted by Jehct View Post
    I see you chose Trump. Enjoy 4 more years of the candidate you wanted.
    If you don't vote democrat..it's on you.

  15. #16255
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    And neither is the Democratic Party entitled to votes from people who they don't provide policies for.

    Politics isn't a cult. Nobody has to vote for conservative Biden if they don't feel he is someone who will serve them.
    We aren’t the ones talking about “our pick” or trump.

  16. #16256
    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    So you're just helping out Trump - great. Thanks for clarifying that. And yes, I will shout down anyone who does personal attacks - that only helps Trump, and muddies the waters of people we're trying to win over.
    Sigh. The man has major flaws and it is ok to talk about them. You are becoming his Sarah Huckabee Sanders. It is fucking mind boggling how you don't see this behavior your exhibiting as fear based silliness that plays exactly into what I've been saying is the flaw of Dems.


    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    We are not using the same strategy. You think we are because...why again. How anyone can rationally think "we're doing the same thing as 2016" is beyond me. We know what went wrong, in multiple areas, and we're fixing that this time around. Biden is a great choice for a number of categories - the fact that you don't agree doesn't make you right, it just makes you disagree.

    Do you understand that you thinking you're right, doesn't make you right. And the facts clearly demonstrate that we are doing things much different this time around. How you ask?

    1. we are not underestimating Trump.
    2. we are flooding the midwest states with campaigning - which was ignored in 2016
    3. we are not running Hillary (despite you claiming they are the same candidate, they are not - and the facts back this up)
    4. we are simplifying messaging
    5. we are making this a referendum on Trump's presidency
    6. we are wooing Obama2012----->Trump2016 voters
    7. we are picking a better Vice President candidate

    Much more. It's not at all the same.
    1. the hell we aren't.
    2. And?
    3. You keep saying they are different, and offering literally nothing to say how.
    4. In what way?
    5. Again, and?
    6. How? Hillary was part of his cabinet too you know.
    7. Who is that?

    See this post:
    Quote Originally Posted by Clone View Post
    lol no, Bernie is not entitled to votes on the merit of not being trump. Fuck off with this bullshit ultimatum.
    This ^ is because you guys refuse to hear these people. You categorically dismiss them and their frustrations. So they make these statements. Woo them, instead of acting exactly like them and shitting on them for being upset.
    Last edited by Bodakane; 2020-03-13 at 08:43 PM.
    M.A.A.A. Make America Adult Again

  17. #16257
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowferal View Post
    If you don't vote democrat..it's on you.
    You surely didn't vote democrat. If you voted Biden you basically gave Trump the presidency for free.

    You were warned. Sanders or Trump. You chose Trump. that's on you bud.
    Quote Originally Posted by Machismo View Post
    Yes, I think a company should be legally allowed to refuse to serve black people.
    Quote Originally Posted by Orbitus View Post
    I don't know what you are watching, but it isn't fucking reality.
    Hes talking about me saying Joe Biden has dementia. LOL

  18. #16258
    Quote Originally Posted by Bodakane View Post
    Once again, i challenge you to explain why those people voted for Trump over Hillary and why those reasons are different now that Biden is the nom.
    I keep linking it. Conservative Democrats supported Sanders over Clinton, and they supported Biden over Sanders. These are Democratic voters who not only have very conservative views on race and gender, they call themselves moderate or conservative. Democratic voters who are too--let's use this phrase again-- "gender traditionalist" to vote for Clinton have a fair amount in common with actual Republicans, and less with progressives. That accounts for people who voted for Sanders and Trump over Clinton and why they would vote for Biden over both Sanders and Trump.

  19. #16259
    Banned Rochana's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clone View Post
    We aren’t the ones talking about “our pick” or trump.
    It isn't about "our pick", it's about the fact that centrist Democrat politicians have failed the country already for the past few decades.

    Fact: They can't even get rid of Trump, the most incompetent and dumbest president in the history of the USA, who openly commits crimes... They can't get rid of him. They have no clue how to get anything done when it isn't filling their own pockets with money or screwing over the common people.

    There are countless people who support Bernie because they are literally fighting for their lives. There are countless people fed up with the status quo. If americans don't stop being ideological cowards and don't start supporting more left-wing candidates you're going to get the Joker - Gotham style activism happening in a few years from now instead. I'm sure that'll be taken as a threat, but that is simply the reality of things. I can't change that, I can't change or stop people fighting for their livelihoods or stop people from finally snapping and saying "enough is enough".

    Trump was caused and continues to be by the incompetence of centrist Democrats.

  20. #16260
    Quote Originally Posted by Jehct View Post
    You surely didn't vote democrat. If you voted Biden you basically gave Trump the presidency for free.
    You were warned. Sanders or Trump. You chose Trump. that's on you bud.
    NJ here...
    And I suspect you're responsible for the president today.
    Just own up to it already!

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