Mega-Thread: Democratic 2020 Primaries

[cubby]

Well unlike Biden, at least Sanders is acting like he wants the damn job. Biden is acting like he is resigned to America just giving it to him. Which they won't.

I am no Sanders fan, but I am not going to fault the guy for trying. I would prefer a President who is willing to fight some long odds, because we need someone that will actually go toe to toe with some serious issues. Now I will fault Sanders for being a delusional fool who doesn't seem to want to understand what he is up against, but I won't fault him for trying to win.

Biden put out an amazing "Presidential" answer to Trump's ridiculous actions earlier this month. It was strong, solid, Presidential - and rebuked Trump's incompetence precisely without actually saying it.

Now, it's time for Trump to continue to fuck it up.

Your thirst for Sanders to return, hidden in the guise of ignorant critiques of Biden is at this point just tiresome.

[Thekri]

Biden put out an amazing "Presidential" answer to Trump's ridiculous actions earlier this month. It was strong, solid, Presidential - and rebuked Trump's incompetence precisely without actually saying it.

Now, it's time for Trump to continue to fuck it up.

Your thirst for Sanders to return, hidden in the guise of ignorant critiques of Biden is at this point just tiresome.

You are better then that Cubby. You should know better then to assume anyone that dares question the chosen one automatically wants Sanders. Find one positive thing I have said about Sanders. I dare you. When I posted my top 8 preferences at the start of this, he was number 8. (Biden was 7, and I didn't bother listing Bloomberg and Tulsi).

But this idea that Biden can do nothing and still win is insane. I do not understand how anyone can sit back and doubt the effectiveness of Trump's brand of populism. Populists always gain influence through crisis, always. This isn't Trump's doom, it is his salvation, and America's doom. Sanders would be doing the same thing if he was President, fucking it up royally and blaming everyone else, because although he is a very different sort of populist, he is still one, and blaming others is their most effective trick.

The fact you don't think it is a problem that nobody wants to listen to Biden's opinions on the most serious crisis America has faced in generations is... baffling. When the presumptive nominee for president live streams a statement in these situations, I would expect millions. Not this embarrassment.

[Lenonis]

Americans are fickle. I'm really not concerned about that Gallup poll one bit.

Boy they sure are. Unfortunately for Trump the COVID outbreak didn't decide to wait until a few months from now when he could actually ride it all the way to the election. The problem he faces is November is still seven and a half months away. The fear and blind loyalty to "leadership" that Trump is enjoying now won't last. People will start losing jobs, going hungry, looking at the damage done to their retirement accounts and that momentary surge in support will go out to sea. Whether or not Trump actually has any blame or responsibility is irrelevant. People see the moment in time and the president gets the blame or credit regardless of facts.

[jonnysensible]

Biden put out an amazing "Presidential" answer to Trump's ridiculous actions earlier this month. It was strong, solid, Presidential - and rebuked Trump's incompetence precisely without actually saying it.

Now, it's time for Trump to continue to fuck it up.

Your thirst for Sanders to return, hidden in the guise of ignorant critiques of Biden is at this point just tiresome.

what does presidential mean? its one of those nothing words.

your quest to constantly vindicate biden of even the mildest critiques is exactly the same as the Trump stans who go nuts when you dare question the messiah..

[Lenonis]

Sanders might remain the most viable candidate the Democratic Party can have to run as nominee in the elections.

Even the Democratic Party and DNC themselves have been ringing the alarm bell lately about Biden's cognitive decline problems.

So...we're at the point where you are just making stuff up or do you have anything to actually support this.

[Thekri]

So...we're at the point where you are just making stuff up or do you have anything to actually support this.

He is making it up. Sanders is totally done at this point. He is one of the many Trump supporters that attempts to pop in and discredit whoever the front runner is. If Sanders was up he would pop in talking about how Biden is much more realistic and grounded.

[jonnysensible]

He is making it up. Sanders is totally done at this point. He is one of the many Trump supporters that attempts to pop in and discredit whoever the front runner is. If Sanders was up he would pop in talking about how Biden is much more realistic and grounded.

nah they arent a trump support, know your tankies!

You can find the same opinions on 'the dirtbag left'. Aka Chapo Trap House, red scare, The War Nerd, rhizzone, grayzone, abby martin types.

Its proper grim how people fall into these rabbit holes. Its information pollution, you can usually gauge pretty well where people get thier talking points from on this forum.

[cubby]

You are better then that Cubby. You should know better then to assume anyone that dares question the chosen one automatically wants Sanders. Find one positive thing I have said about Sanders. I dare you. When I posted my top 8 preferences at the start of this, he was number 8. (Biden was 7, and I didn't bother listing Bloomberg and Tulsi).

But this idea that Biden can do nothing and still win is insane. I do not understand how anyone can sit back and doubt the effectiveness of Trump's brand of populism. Populists always gain influence through crisis, always. This isn't Trump's doom, it is his salvation, and America's doom. Sanders would be doing the same thing if he was President, fucking it up royally and blaming everyone else, because although he is a very different sort of populist, he is still one, and blaming others is their most effective trick.

The fact you don't think it is a problem that nobody wants to listen to Biden's opinions on the most serious crisis America has faced in generations is... baffling. When the presumptive nominee for president live streams a statement in these situations, I would expect millions. Not this embarrassment.

God you're adorable.

You are getting several points of view as to why it's actually smart for Biden to hunker down and build up his campaign organization. At least two people are point this out. But apparently you care more about video editing that presidential campaign strategy.

You need to remember that your feels aren't necessarily right, and perhaps you should consider another point of view, especially when several people tell you the same thing. I mean the rant above from my comment is just more of your drivel. "Why isn't Biden following my campaign advice!" is essentially the thrust of all your posts. It's embarrassing watching you flounder in tide-pool like conditions, when you can't even be bothered to ask yourself, honestly, if you're right.

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what does presidential mean? its one of those nothing words.

your quest to constantly vindicate biden of even the mildest critiques is exactly the same as the Trump stans who go nuts when you dare question the messiah..

No, I mean in the way he presented his plan. He looked presidential, sounded presidential - calm, sincere, solid, strong, clear. It was a VERY good moment for Biden.

I get what you mean, sometimes that word can be thrown around into nothingness.

Biden isn't any messiah - he's definitely got issues. I'm just tired of Thekri's rant about things he doesn't know about, and can't be bothered to learn. He's incapable of assessing whether he might be wrong or not. Just disappointing.

[Skroe]

Boy they sure are. Unfortunately for Trump the COVID outbreak didn't decide to wait until a few months from now when he could actually ride it all the way to the election. The problem he faces is November is still seven and a half months away. The fear and blind loyalty to "leadership" that Trump is enjoying now won't last. People will start losing jobs, going hungry, looking at the damage done to their retirement accounts and that momentary surge in support will go out to sea. Whether or not Trump actually has any blame or responsibility is irrelevant. People see the moment in time and the president gets the blame or credit regardless of facts.

Politically speaking - and it feels real ghoulish to even talk about this but let's just get it out there - this is actually optimally timed.

As relayed in that Politico article I linked above, Trump's campaign team planned to spend the time between March and September to wage a destructive messaging campaign versus Biden, based on what Obama did to Romney in 2012. They were going to use their resources and time to define Biden before Biden had time to build the counter-messaging resources.

All of that now is out the window. Trump and his campaign aren't doing it. And with this likely to last until summer, we could be seeing (very surprisingly) a rather narrow campaign season. First with the primary, which to everyone's surprise did not drag on together but was mostly over by Super Tuesday. And if the General Election campaign truly doesn't get spun up until... lets say August... that leaves Trump bereft of months to turn people against Biden.

The remaining question is if Bloomberg is actually going to make due on spending $500 million to beat Trump, or if his $18 million loophole donation to the DNC was "it" and he's going to bitterly sulk that Americans didn't embrace what he was selling. Because Democrats will need that $500 million.

This is where things get even more hypothetical.

Hillary raised about $1.3 billion in 2016 and Trump about $700 billion.

In 2020 Trump was expected to raise well over $2 billion (probably closer to $2.4B). Biden was expected to raise around $1.3B.

Republicans are far more dependent on big donors than Democrats. Republicans depend on the wealthy dropping large tranches of $60 million, $100 million and $200 million to PACs. Directly to candidates / the RNC, Republicans depend on dinners and events that go for $25,000 a plate. Things like that.

Democrats do all the above, but to a lesser degree. They make far more of their money from small donations, chiefly now via ActBlue. 2016 in a funny way illustrated why, in a sense, Apple makes a lot more money than Lockheed Martin. Because Apple sells many millions of phones for $1000, while Lockheed sells just 100 jet fighters for $100 million each. The former number is far larger, and sure enough, a lot of small donors donating a little creates a far, far larger number than a fewer people donating a single big number.

The X-factor this time is WinRed, which is the Republicans' version of ActBlue. WinRed sucks, and is corrupt. But it is also a new fundraising stream for Republicans. ActBlue dwarfs it. At least up to this point.

So here is the question: if social distancing becomes the habitual norm for the rest of 2020, through the campaign season, would online donations form a disproportionately larger share of what candidates raise versus an alternative world where Covid-19 never happened. Because if it does, Democrats might have a fundraising advantage again because Republicans won't conduct, or conduct fewer of their big in-person fund raisers. But conversely if only Democrats observe social distancing norms and Republicans ignore it, it could increase the fund raising disadvantage.

If anything, the Biden campaign just needs to spend the period now focusing on how it's going to raise a lot of money later in the year despite corona virus, because while the resource game didn't save Sanders in the primary, letting Trump have too much of an advantage will lose the general to him.

[Thekri]

God you're adorable.

You are getting several points of view as to why it's actually smart for Biden to hunker down and build up his campaign organization. At least two people are point this out. But apparently you care more about video editing that presidential campaign strategy.

You need to remember that your feels aren't necessarily right, and perhaps you should consider another point of view, especially when several people tell you the same thing. I mean the rant above from my comment is just more of your drivel. "Why isn't Biden following my campaign advice!" is essentially the thrust of all your posts. It's embarrassing watching you flounder in tide-pool like conditions, when you can't even be bothered to ask yourself, honestly, if you're right.

Ok sure, I get the difference of opinion. And I hope I am wrong, I truly do. But I highly doubt it.

The reason the editing is important is because that is a very clear indicator of the quality of Biden's campaign staff. If you are addressing a message to the entire American people, it is generally good to make the product look presentable, and market it in a way that people will watch it. This is pretty basic stuff.

I have dealt with crisis my entire life. It is literally my career. I have been a leader since I graduated college, and I know a failed messaging strategy when I see one. Biden is showing restraint, but he is not showing leadership. Andrew Cuomo is, but Biden isn't. Now as @Skroe very rightly pointed out, November is 7 1/2 months away. Polls right now don't really matter for anything. But I disagree that we are in an encouraging position. Doing nothing and hoping Trump finds the first hole in his life that he can't dig himself out of is foolish.

As to what you and Skroe are doing, and have been doing for months, in relentlessly attacking "Bernie Bros", that is incredibly unhelpful, and actively destructive to the cause of beating Trump. You are creating enemies that Biden doesn't need to have. Yes, Bernie never stood a chance at being President, which is a good thing, because he would be a terrible one. But constantly rubbing that in the faces of his supporters is a dick move, and they aren't likely to forgive you for it when we need them to vote for Biden.

[cubby]

Ok sure, I get the difference of opinion. And I hope I am wrong, I truly do. But I highly doubt it.

Fair enough.

The reason the editing is important is because that is a very clear indicator of the quality of Biden's campaign staff. If you are addressing a message to the entire American people, it is generally good to make the product look presentable, and market it in a way that people will watch it. This is pretty basic stuff.

You are highly critical of the "editing" - are you perhaps a professional editor or in the business? That might affect how you see it vs most other people. Something to consider.

I have dealt with crisis my entire life. It is literally my career. I have been a leader since I graduated college, and I know a failed messaging strategy when I see one. Biden is showing restraint, but he is not showing leadership. Andrew Cuomo is, but Biden isn't. Now as @Skroe very rightly pointed out, November is 7 1/2 months away. Polls right now don't really matter for anything. But I disagree that we are in an encouraging position. Doing nothing and hoping Trump finds the first hole in his life that he can't dig himself out of is foolish.

Poll don't matter at all at this point - for two reasons. One, they never have before. Two, Coronapocalypse makes that doubly so now. So why are you screaming at Biden to do something, when doing something right now, via your own words, will have little to no effect.

As to what you and Skroe are doing, and have been doing for months, in relentlessly attacking "Bernie Bros", that is incredibly unhelpful, and actively destructive to the cause of beating Trump. You are creating enemies that Biden doesn't need to have. Yes, Bernie never stood a chance at being President, which is a good thing, because he would be a terrible one. But constantly rubbing that in the faces of his supporters is a dick move, and they aren't likely to forgive you for it when we need them to vote for Biden.

Where did I attack "Bernie Bros" again? We'll all wait for you link of that. Excited to see words I never wrote that you're responding to now.

I'm creating zero enemies. I'm pointing out bullshit when I see it.

[Skroe]

As to what you and Skroe are doing, and have been doing for months, in relentlessly attacking "Bernie Bros", that is incredibly unhelpful, and actively destructive to the cause of beating Trump. You are creating enemies that Biden doesn't need to have. Yes, Bernie never stood a chance at being President, which is a good thing, because he would be a terrible one. But constantly rubbing that in the faces of his supporters is a dick move, and they aren't likely to forgive you for it when we need them to vote for Biden.

I've explained at length why I attack Bernie Bros before. Here's the short version: because they're another cult of personality and that can't be allowed to be normalized here. It has nothing to do with his policies. It has everything to do in the time exemplified by when said some nice things about Castro and literacy and rather than be raked over coals for his electoral idiocy, the cult came to his rescue and tried to rationalize the indefensible. Unlike Trump Bernie is not an evil man and he genuinely wants to help people. But given the choice, there is no point in replacing one cult of personality with another.

And more to the point, in terms of "needing their vote". That has purpose too. The Bernie Bros took hostages (so to speak) before Bernie had his moment, and after Super Tuesday, after they had his moment. I decided to rhetorically shoot the hostage and deny them the existence of their so-called leverage. Their hostage taking - this bullshit thing they say that Biden NEEDS their support - is only relevant if they live in one of six swing states. And Demographically (and I went over this in depth in the last 10 days) they simply do not exist in large enough numbers compared to centrists and independents in those six states.

If they did, I'd say obviously Biden should swing hard to get their vote. But since they don't, why should we legitimize the hostage taking? If they threaten to stay home, the right response is "go for it... you live in California... it's going to be D+30 with or without you." What purpose does this serve? Only through breaking them of this notion that they have leverage (that they do not) can we compel them to embrace the coalition-style politics that are necessary to make our politics functional. And coalitions are never began with hostage taking and ultimatums.

For that reason I'm quite satisfied with every miserable world I've said towards Bernie Sanders supporters. Not just in 2019/2020 but also 2016 as well. Their style of politics is unacceptable to me, and I'm not going to sit here and let them pretend that they have leverage they plainly do not.

If they don't live in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida or North Carolina, their support is not required. Appreciated. But not required. And that's the bloody electoral math. Not enough of them live in these places. And it's positively mind-boggling I have to keep saying that.

So much of the discourse in this thread is operating under National Popular Vote rules, rather than delegate rules (for the primary) and electoral college rules (for the general). It boggles my mind people play a game without appreciating the rules.

[GreenJesus]

God you're adorable.

You are getting several points of view as to why it's actually smart for Biden to hunker down and build up his campaign organization. At least two people are point this out. But apparently you care more about video editing that presidential campaign strategy.

You need to remember that your feels aren't necessarily right, and perhaps you should consider another point of view, especially when several people tell you the same thing. I mean the rant above from my comment is just more of your drivel. "Why isn't Biden following my campaign advice!" is essentially the thrust of all your posts. It's embarrassing watching you flounder in tide-pool like conditions, when you can't even be bothered to ask yourself, honestly, if you're right.

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No, I mean in the way he presented his plan. He looked presidential, sounded presidential - calm, sincere, solid, strong, clear. It was a VERY good moment for Biden.

I get what you mean, sometimes that word can be thrown around into nothingness.

Biden isn't any messiah - he's definitely got issues. I'm just tired of Thekri's rant about things he doesn't know about, and can't be bothered to learn. He's incapable of assessing whether he might be wrong or not. Just disappointing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-poll-k86e29ot

This is what we are dealing with. Despite what reddit and twitter believe, Trump has extremely high approval of how he is handling the virus (whether he deserves it or not lol). His overall approval is up to 49% now. It jumped up.

Some six in 10 Americans approve of the job Donald Trump is doing to combat the coronavirus crisis, pushing the president’s approval rating – 49% - to the highest of his presidency, according to a poll released Tuesday by Gallup.

[JohnBrown1917]

That last MSNBC video with Biden oooh boy. He cannot speak off Teleprompter to save his life. I guess the plan is just to pump him full of some drug and hope he does his best in the debates?

I'm pretty sure that is Trump's plan as well.

Having 2 drugged up senile old white men fight it out sounds like the most American reality show I can think off.

[Thekri]

I've explained at length why I attack Bernie Bros before. Here's the short version: because they're another cult of personality and that can't be allowed to be normalized here. It has nothing to do with his policies. It has everything to do in the time exemplified by when said some nice things about Castro and literacy and rather than be raked over coals for his electoral idiocy, the cult came to his rescue and tried to rationalize the indefensible. Unlike Trump Bernie is not an evil man and he genuinely wants to help people. But given the choice, there is no point in replacing one cult of personality with another.

Yeah, I do get your position. I don't agree with it, but I do understand it.

What I was reacting to above is laughing at the extreme irony of @cubby coming at me like I was some fanatical Bernie supporter because I dared question the wisdom of popping out poorly made youtube videos in a crisis.

In short, what @cubby is doing is indistinguishable from what both Bernie and Trump supporters did, in assuming that any criticism automatically makes you an enemy. I find it amusing. I don't tolerate that sort of "Above criticism" bullshit from Trump, and i don't acknowledge it from Biden.

To be clear, I am not referring to you here. You have a different point of view, which I disagree with, but you didn't come after me personally like Cubby did.

[LordKain]

Oh this is getting delicious.

[cubby]

Yeah, I do get your position. I don't agree with it, but I do understand it.

What I was reacting to above is laughing at the extreme irony of @cubby coming at me like I was some fanatical Bernie supporter because I dared question the wisdom of popping out poorly made youtube videos in a crisis.

In short, what @cubby is doing is indistinguishable from what both Bernie and Trump supporters did, in assuming that any criticism automatically makes you an enemy. I find it amusing. I don't tolerate that sort of "Above criticism" bullshit from Trump, and i don't acknowledge it from Biden.

To be clear, I am not referring to you here. You have a different point of view, which I disagree with, but you didn't come after me personally like Cubby did.

I love that you continually and consistently misunderstand my point, and hypocritically attack me (and acting just like those Trump supporters that you claim to disdain).
You let me know where I've ever said Biden is above criticism. We'll wait - and it will be a long wait. Your apology can go right here:

My position has been consistent and crystal clear. Your problem is that all you see is what you think, rather than what is happening.

Now, to your point above. Remember, when I pointed out what you were doing, you admitted you were wrong. Please keep that in mind.

[Thekri]

I love that you continually and consistently misunderstand my point, and hypocritically attack me (and acting just like those Trump supporters that you claim to disdain).
You let me know where I've ever said Biden is above criticism. We'll wait - and it will be a long wait. Your apology can go right here:

My position has been consistent and crystal clear. Your problem is that all you see is what you think, rather than what is happening.

Now, to your point above. Remember, when I pointed out what you were doing, you admitted you were wrong. Please keep that in mind.

Ok man. Go cool off.

I have no interest in digging though your posting history, and I agree with the majority of what you post, so I am in no particular hurry to prove you wrong. I frankly don't care. When I make a mistake, I admit them, which seems to rather undermine whatever point you are trying to make.

This part "Your problem is that all you see is what you think, rather than what is happening." doesn't even make any sense. All you are really doing is being angry because I think something different from what you think, and you frame your opinions as reality.

So whatever. I am not interested in starting a feud with you.

I will take umbrage with one claim here though. I do not disdain Trump supporters. I disagree with them, but I do not disdain them. They are my fellow Americans, my neighbors, and my co-workers, and I get along quite well with many of them. We can disagree politically without disdaining each other.

[cubby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-poll-k86e29ot

This is what we are dealing with. Despite what reddit and twitter believe, Trump has extremely high approval of how he is handling the virus (whether he deserves it or not lol). His overall approval is up to 49% now. It jumped up.

Some six in 10 Americans approve of the job Donald Trump is doing to combat the coronavirus crisis, pushing the president’s approval rating – 49% - to the highest of his presidency, according to a poll released Tuesday by Gallup.

Those numbers are interesting and mildly worrisome. But literally everything is going to change in the next six months. We're going to have to just wait. Which sucks.

On a more detailed note, Trump is getting associated with a war-time President. And that's concerning, because war-time Presidents do better during elections. And the GOP is already referring to this as a "war", which means they are either purposefully or accidentally doing the job of painting Trump as a war-time President.

The "good" news, if you can call it that, is that Trump is fucking this up every single day. We'll just have to wait and see.

[d00mGuArD]

If Biden wants to get my vote, he's going to have prove he won't cut social security in some grand bargain scheme as they attempted to do not too long ago.

No matter who wins, the chances of that happening, are high. The virus will hurt the economy a lot. It is very likely that all over the world social programs will (sadly) get cuts.