Mega-Thread: Democratic 2020 Primaries

[Milchshake]

Since it's been brought to my attention that a few of Bernie Sanders' more toxic supporters aren't in fact men, might I recommend we opt for the more neutral term of "Whackobins"?

That feel when you're a Girondin stuck in Jacobin country.

I also feel they tend to come mostly middle class and upper middle class homes. That affords them so much luxury time to ear guzzle podcasts and post on twitter.

I think the name Narodniks is now available as well!

[Elegiac]

And yet Bernie killed it among nonwhite women in NH...

Which is why I mentioned AOC and Ilhan Omar. Keep up.

[Telogrus]

Which is why I mentioned AOC and Ilhan Omar. Keep up.

1. How does this even disprove what I said? Doesn't change the fact that he has the most support from minority women
2. So Bernie would get 30% less support from them were it not for AOC and Ohmar? Is it really that hard to admit that you're just wrong?

[Elegiac]

I also feel they tend to come mostly middle class and upper middle class homes. That affords them so much luxury time to ear guzzle podcasts and post on twitter.

I think the name Nardoniks is now available as well!

That much is evident by the way the Whackobins frame minority issues as a political liability.

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1. How does this even disprove what I said? Doesn't change the fact that he has the most support from minority women
2. So Bernie would get 30% less support from them were it not for AOC and Ohmar? Is it really that hard to admit that you're just wrong?

Yes, I'm saying AOC and the Squad did quite a bit to rehabilitate Bernie's image regarding minority issues.

It's like y'all don't even remember 2016.

[Milchshake]

That much is evident by the way the Whackobins frame minority issues as a political liability.

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Yes, I'm saying AOC and the Squad did quite a bit to rehabilitate Bernie's image regarding minority issues.

It's like y'all don't even remember 2016.

But Bernie's numbers and raw appeal has plummeted over the past 4 years. The Bernie idea of simply turning out "new voters" has little ROI. The same model was applied for Labour in the UK and didn't work, and turnout figures suggest very few new voters are showing up.

[Elegiac]

Interesting take that centrism might be unelectable for democrats in the USA:

2000: Al Gore lost the election as a centrist.
2004: John Kerry lost the election as a centrist.
2008: Obama won the election posturing as a progressive, but then lost both houses of Congress after being exposed as a centrist.
2016: Hillary lost the election as a centrist.

I believe that the people who really wish to avoid Trump-like presidents should consider embracing progressivism more and reject neoliberalism / centrism fully.

That's nice, but I'm still not going to vote for someone I think is incompetent no matter how much they align with me politically. Ideology as the only qualifier is how you get Trump.

[Elegiac]

But Bernie's numbers and raw appeal has plummeted over the past 4 years. The Bernie idea of simply turning out "new voters" has little ROI. The same model was applied for Labour in the UK and didn't work, and turnout figures suggest very few new voters are showing up.

I need to see how primaries start shaping up in the South and the West Coast before we assume 2016 was Bernie's plateau, personally speaking.

But, yeah. There's not a lot of observable evidence that Bernie's revolution is actually a thing, so far.

[Milchshake]

Feb. 6 FiveThirtyEight odds of winning the Dem nomination:
Sanders 49%
No one 23%
Biden 17%
Warren 8%
Buttigieg 3%

Feb 11 FiveThirtyEight odds of winning the Dem nomination:
Sanders 38%
No one 33%
Biden 18%
Buttigieg 5%
Bloomberg 4%
Warren 3%

Lol the 538 model. Biden is up a point.

Personally i'm going with No One!


Bernie's less than stellar win made his odds plummet on the 538 model. I have a feeling my previous skepticism about that model is about to become a whole lot more popular.

[mvaliz]

2008: Obama won the election posturing as a progressive, but then lost both houses of Congress after being exposed as a centrist.

Sorry, son, gotta dissagree with you on that one.

He lost Congress in 2010, not even a 1+ year into his admin. What happened was referred to as the "Southern Strategy" where they galvanized racist rhetoric to create basically a "Red wave" back then of a TON of racist Traitorpublicans ran out to vote. And then, as I said back then, the Republicans stopped Obama from getting anything done for the next 6 years - of which at the end they accused him of not getting anything done in 6 years as somehow being his fault.

Yeah, please don't adjust the truth of what happened to fit a narrative. You honestly don't need to do that at this point.

[Telogrus]

Honestly the Dems stealing the nomination from Bernie at a brokered convention might be a good thing in the long run. It could catalyze progressives and other anti-establishment voters all jumping ship to form a 3rd viable political party. The new party occupies the left, the Dems occupy the center, and the Republicans occupy the right. The Democrats will still reek in 2024 due to blatant corruption in the brokered convention, the Republicans will look awful after another 4 years of Trump, with the economy probably taking a big hit at some point, and so the progressives would have a really strong case in 2024.

[Zaydin]

Honestly the Dems stealing the nomination from Bernie at a brokered convention might be a good thing in the long run. It could catalyze progressives and other anti-establishment voters all jumping ship to form a 3rd viable political party. The new party occupies the left, the Dems occupy the center, and the Republicans occupy the right. The Democrats will still reek in 2024 due to blatant corruption in the brokered convention, the Republicans will look awful after another 4 years of Trump, with the economy probably taking a big hit at some point, and so the progressives would have a really strong case in 2024.

Not going to happen.

[ati87]

Feb. 6 FiveThirtyEight odds of winning the Dem nomination:
Sanders 49%
No one 23%
Biden 17%
Warren 8%
Buttigieg 3%

Feb 11 FiveThirtyEight odds of winning the Dem nomination:
Sanders 38%
No one 33%
Biden 18%
Buttigieg 5%
Bloomberg 4%
Warren 3%

Lol the 538 model. Biden is up a point.

Personally i'm going with No One!


Bernie's less than stellar win made his odds plummet on the 538 model. I have a feeling my previous skepticism about that model is about to become a whole lot more popular.

Momentum matters and outside of Sanders who has momentum really? During Super Tuesday it will be decided mostly and you will see a few people drop out, personally I think Biden will drop out Warren perhaps.
Buttigier and Klobuchar will keep on running just like Cruz and Kasich who can continue running a bit longer since there was no high expectation from the start

[PACOX]

Honestly the Dems stealing the nomination from Bernie at a brokered convention might be a good thing in the long run. It could catalyze progressives and other anti-establishment voters all jumping ship to form a 3rd viable political party. The new party occupies the left, the Dems occupy the center, and the Republicans occupy the right. The Democrats will still reek in 2024 due to blatant corruption in the brokered convention, the Republicans will look awful after another 4 years of Trump, with the economy probably taking a big hit at some point, and so the progressives would have a really strong case in 2024.

Not going it to whoever goes into the convention with the majority would stunt the part.

[gaymer77]

As much as I think Pete could do well and Bernie would be the president that this generation would see as one of the greatest, I don't think either will end up winning in 2020 but Bernie does have the highest chance at taking on Trump in November. Too many homophobics out there to rally behind Pete even from the Democratic party. If some Democrats will jump ship instead of voting for a gay man, why would conservative or even moderate Republicans do that? Hell there were plenty of Democrats that jumped ship when Hillary won the nomination. Why wouldn't the do the same if Pete got it?

[ati87]

As much as I think Pete could do well and Bernie would be the president that this generation would see as one of the greatest, I don't think either will end up winning in 2020 but Bernie does have the highest chance at taking on Trump in November. Too many homophobics out there to rally behind Pete even from the Democratic party. If some Democrats will jump ship instead of voting for a gay man, why would conservative or even moderate Republicans do that? Hell there were plenty of Democrats that jumped ship when Hillary won the nomination. Why wouldn't the do the same if Pete got it?

Because Clinton was a terrible candidate.
You think that H. Clinton lost because she is a women, no she lost because of multiply issues starting from her being a horrible campaigner (Pokemon go-to-the-polls joke, and her CP time joke), decades of smeer campaign from the GOP, Conmey announcement, a stupid VP pick that nobody knew back then and nobody knows today.

You should not draw any comparison between the current democratic field and H. Clinton in 2016, with perhaps the exception of Biden since he runs the same type of campaign. And still though, Biden is a much better campaigner then Clinton because at least he can sell his ''crazy uncle Joe act''.

[Wyrt]

There you go. Sanders calling for everyone to unite behind the nominee regardless of who it is. Are you people happy now? I doubt it, but it's there.

[PACOX]

Chances are noone has a majority, just a plurality.

Theres no way the DNC gets away with, 'well he won the popular vote but didn't win the race' without catastrophic levels of backfire. Especially when some camps keep saying Sanders voters won't accept the primary but apparently they are cool with the roles being reversed.

[Yoshingo]

What's wrong with him?

He's kind of a huge tool and a living stereotype for what people think of when they hear "Bernie Bro." He's a huge cunt to everybody that isn't Sanders. Even places like The Young Turks, who are openly and honestly claiming they're biased for Bernie, still talk about the positives of Warren and even Klobuchar and Yang. But not that prick. He also openly peddles conspiracy theories about Sanders as true without much proof.

In short he's a perfect representation of a person toxifying the left, which directly feeds into the media's narrative that Sanders and his followers are all just terrible. Its a self-fulfilling prophecy. He acts like an asshole to everyone, uses his platform to do so, spurring his own followers into acting the same way, and then turns around and complains when people say that Sanders supporters are toxic.

A bad actor on the left using the same tactics of all the many bad actors on the right or "classical liberal" political spectrum on Youtube.

[Ihavewaffles]

“Just move on” from a child’s death......

I hope to god your life is burned to the fucking ground and you lose everything important to you for such a callous, comment, you manic depressive bottom feeding parasite.

I’m writing right now, trying to take my mind off matters, in the Neonetal ICU where my premie nephew is. I’ve been posting from here since Friday.

I dare you to say something so foul surrounded by suffering babies and seeing mothers you motherfucking goul.

I’ll take my 5 pointer now.

Serious derpkitteh. Fuck you and that rotten fruit in your goddamn head.


Infracted.

Talk about twisting everything he said around...He was talking about the simpler life is all.

And omegalul, u are the last person on this forum to say those things about anyone, you are the worst of the worst, and I blame the mods for not perma-banning you several times over. They consistently ignore ur nation bashing genocidal rants how u want to punish, destroy, humilate nations, their economies, their way of life, hell their very lives if they don't bend the knee.

You want to take military confrontation to the brink of ww3 and beyond, as if this is some fucking video game where u can hit "save game" and then "load saved game" when the world gets nuclear winter?

Compared to you, everyone here is a saint.

And where would ur damn nephew be in ur ww3? Safer? You don't have a grip on reality, on consequences, like a child...


Infracted.

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Uh oh, rose twitter is demanding everyone bend the knee.

Election 2020: Imagine if Robespierre had a stupid twitter mob, instead of a regular mob.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQjHe9UW...png&name=small

Who is pete buttigieg, how have we not heard his name before? Sounds like a gay pornstar.

[Draco-Onis]

As much as I think Pete could do well and Bernie would be the president that this generation would see as one of the greatest, I don't think either will end up winning in 2020 but Bernie does have the highest chance at taking on Trump in November. Too many homophobics out there to rally behind Pete even from the Democratic party. If some Democrats will jump ship instead of voting for a gay man, why would conservative or even moderate Republicans do that? Hell there were plenty of Democrats that jumped ship when Hillary won the nomination. Why wouldn't the do the same if Pete got it?

I agree with this Pete has 0% chance of winning against Trump minorities will not vote for him because he is gay that includes several people I know who are lifelong democrats and members of my family. If the DNC pulls some kind of stunt to get him the nomination we may as well give up on the white house and focus on the Senate.