Dow and S&P 500 hit all-time highs as Street ends record week on a high note

[Draco-Onis]

The economy was improving when Trump ran. It was not as strong as it is now, you can easily see that with the stock market and lower unemployment numbers. Lots of people voted for him who did not have jobs when he ran. The stock market has a effect on the employment numbers, because it is those large companies which hire people. And they hire more if they are doing well and need to expand.

Obama's stock and economic performance are much better than Trump but my point was he ran as if the country was in a depression claiming that we had 45-50% unemployment. The stock market has very little to do with the unemployment rate stock buybacks and financial engineering are what is behind most of the rally. The large companies have cut back on hiring the slack gets picked by other companies most of which are not leading the market. I don't think you understand how the market works seems surface level knowledge, I suggest you read up if you have time or are interested in the basics. It's something I did for a living for a while and managed my own money for a while until I started my businesses.

And no, I am not joking. I am not a registered Republican and never have been. But lately, they seem to be the only party which has a chance of winning that supports most of what I think is important. The Democrat party today is not the one I knew back when I voted for them.

Perhaps you can enlighten me I don't see any of your policy stances that would cross with the democratic party aside from an angry vote for Obama because republicans tanked the economy I just don't see it. If a computer generated a generic republican you would come out only thing it would get wrong is you living in the deep south.

[Kokolums]

The dow fell and now is hitting a record that is about the same as the old high... exactly what is special about that?

It is not good news for Trump. In fact it hurts trump.

Saying the economy is good and how great it is and then pointing to the stock market, is not good for his base who generally do not own stock and haven't seen any changes in their own economic standing

The yield curve inverted. The chances of NOT having a recession in the near future are actually small. Politically you can at best hope it stalls for longer.

As someone who has followed the stock market for years, this is considered amateur analysis at best that displays a total lack of investment history. These type of comments have been so persistent and prevalent over the past 40 year boom that investors have actually given a name to the psychosis: "a wall of worry". Every rally must climb a wall of worry, where ignorant commentators talk down the rally as is progresses (usually for political agendas).

The last time the yield curve inverted for the FIRST time during a boom was in February 2006. Had you exited on that signal, it would have been a bust because the market topped 1.5 YEARS after that inversion. You would have missed out on ONE THIRD of the rally. Even more dangerous, you might have shorted the market on that signal and lost your ass as the market ripped higher for 1.5 years.

That's why you don't use the yield curve inversion as a market signal.

Also STOP injecting politics into the stock market. The republicans did it in 2011-2012 when the market suffered a MASSIVE drop to try to attack Obama and they got burned when it rebounded. Yes, it took 2-3 years to hit major highs again, but it did. Now its stupid and amateur democrats trying to use the market as a proxy to attack Trump and republicans because the market suffer a MASSIVE drop in late 2018.

I don't really care if you are democrat or republican, I see this crap a lot, both sides do it, and you should never let it influence your investing.

[Draco-Onis]

As someone who has followed the stock market for years, this is considered amateur analysis at best that displays a total lack of investment history. These type of comments have been so persistent and prevalent over the past 40 year boom that investors have actually given a name to the psychosis: "a wall of worry". Every rally must climb a wall of worry, where ignorant commentators talk down the rally as is progresses (usually for political agendas).

The last time the yield curve inverted for the FIRST time during a boom was in February 2006. Had you exited on that signal, it would have been a bust because the market topped 1.5 YEARS after that inversion. You would have missed out on ONE THIRD of the rally. Even more dangerous, you might have shorted the market on that signal and lost your ass as the market ripped higher for 1.5 years.

That's why you don't use the yield curve inversion as a market signal.

Also STOP injecting politics into the stock market. The republicans did it in 2011-2012 when the market suffered a MASSIVE drop to try to attack Obama and they got burned when it rebounded. Yes, it took 2-3 years to hit major highs again, but it did. Now its stupid and amateur democrats trying to use the market as a proxy to attack Trump and republicans because the market suffer a MASSIVE drop in late 2018.

I don't really care if you are democrat or republican, I see this crap a lot, both sides do it, and you should never let it influence your investing.

Maybe pull your head out of your ass but Trump is the one who tied his presidency to the stock market most presidents are smart enough to know that the market is not something they can control by themselves. Every time the market goes up Trump and his lemmings go in a tweet storm but when it tanks they are all quiet, this is something the right did to itself, don't blame the other side for taking advantage of their stupidity.

Also a correction or recession is inevitable Trump or not or do you think markets go up forever?

[Kokolums]

Maybe pull your head out of your ass but Trump is the one who tied his presidency to the stock market most presidents are smart enough to know that the market is not something they can control by themselves. Every time the market goes up Trump and his lemmings go in a tweet storm but when it tanks they are all quiet, this is something the right did to itself, don't blame the other side for taking advantage of their stupidity.

Also a correction or recession is inevitable Trump or not or do you think markets go up forever?

Well, what did I just say? Stop tying the market to your political beliefs. That's how to lose your ass in the market.

[Draco-Onis]

Well, what did I just say? Stop tying the market to your political beliefs. That's how to lose your ass in the market.

Again who is the one tying the market to his political beliefs? who is doing this every time the market is up?

[Kokolums]

Again who is the one tying the market to his political beliefs? who is doing this every time the market is up?

YOU just did it.

[Draco-Onis]

YOU just did it.

Go ahead show me where, you just can't speak badly of your master who is doing this.

[Themius]

As someone who has followed the stock market for years, this is considered amateur analysis at best that displays a total lack of investment history. These type of comments have been so persistent and prevalent over the past 40 year boom that investors have actually given a name to the psychosis: "a wall of worry". Every rally must climb a wall of worry, where ignorant commentators talk down the rally as is progresses (usually for political agendas).

The last time the yield curve inverted for the FIRST time during a boom was in February 2006. Had you exited on that signal, it would have been a bust because the market topped 1.5 YEARS after that inversion. You would have missed out on ONE THIRD of the rally. Even more dangerous, you might have shorted the market on that signal and lost your ass as the market ripped higher for 1.5 years.

That's why you don't use the yield curve inversion as a market signal.

Also STOP injecting politics into the stock market. The republicans did it in 2011-2012 when the market suffered a MASSIVE drop to try to attack Obama and they got burned when it rebounded. Yes, it took 2-3 years to hit major highs again, but it did. Now its stupid and amateur democrats trying to use the market as a proxy to attack Trump and republicans because the market suffer a MASSIVE drop in late 2018.

I don't really care if you are democrat or republican, I see this crap a lot, both sides do it, and you should never let it influence your investing.

What the fuck are you talking about? As it is I have a lot of money tied to stocks and have been investing for a while. Why exactly are you quoting me, do you expect me to whoop about some record that is about the same as the record over half a year ago?

I've had nice returns, because I own stocks, if I did not own stocks what exactly would the stock market going up mean for me? Well nothing...

[God Save The King]

The stock market will always trend upwards barring some massive collapse of the entire global economy. There, of course, will be depressions and recessions throughout, but the overall trend is always upwards. It's rather difficult for a President to have dramatic impact on the economy. Barring some massive new sweeping regulation, tax cut, or a stimulus package, the economy tends to keep on churning.

We're 30 months into to Trump's presidency. Since he took office, the DOW has gone up 37.6%

(Under other presidents at 30 months, ranked top to bottom)*
Roosevelt: 138.1%
Eisenhower: 60.8%
Obama: 51.8%
Clinton: 42.2%
Ford: 40.6%**
Trump: 37.6%
Bush 1: 29.1%
Reagan: 26.6%
Johnson: 17.8%
Truman: 9.9%
Kennedy: 7.3%
Nixon: -9.3%
Carter: -11.3%
Bush 2: -15.2%

Based on the DOW under all presidents since the Great Depression, we can see that Trump is currently 6/14. We're not dealing with massive drains on our economy for wars like we saw under Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon. Ford had massive spending cuts on the Vietnam war within the first year of his presidency, and we can see it reflected as men returned home and started to contribute to our economy. Eisenhower begun to escalate at the tail end of his presidency, and we see quite a dip in response which carries into Kennedy's short time in office. Carter inherited a bad recession and Bush 2 did everything in his power to combat what he saw as terror in the middle east, which caused a lot of economic damage (coupled with the dot com bubble). Reagan and Bush 1 did all right, but trickle down does not really stimulate much growth, so they had okay numbers. Trump, so far, is mainly riding off of the policies enacted under the Obama administration, barring the one large tax cut which has notably slowed the growth of the stock market. Right up until he did that, he was basically matching pace with how Obama was doing. Since then he's lagged quite a bit behind.

I think if Trump reverses his tax cut and basically reverts to Obama-era economic policy, things will be fine. While Obama was no economic genius, in the course of his eight years, the DOW and economy grew tremendously. The stock market only did better under two other presidents since the Great Depression - Clinton and Roosevelt. Unfortunately it is unlikely their policies would be overly effective in the modern era. We've seen Trump's attempt at policy making only slow growth.

* Most economists like to look at a larger picture than 30 months, so this kind of evaluation will be more useful at the end of Trump's presidency, as some of the people beneath him did much better towards the end of their terms, and some above him tanked downwards
** Ford was only in office 29 months, but his 29th month outperformed Trumps by 6.7%, so I placed him above

[Zan15]

Also a correction or recession is inevitable Trump or not or do you think markets go up forever?

they do because they are designed to do such a thing.

once a company in one of the indexes really shits the bed they lose their listing GE for instance.
if they go bankrupt or drop below 20-10-5 (depending on index) they are removed. So if you were invested in an index fund for the Dow you could still lose your shirt while the index shows +5% for the year once they kick them out a week later.




if you were to include the actual index as a static index its really not doing that well.

if you start to broaden which index's you look at and start looking at more comprehensive ones like the Russel 2000 you would see we are substantially down still from multi year highs or flat.

Russel 2000 still 10% off its 2018 high.

Russel 3000 is only up 1.8% since the same point.

SP 500 up 3%

Why do I bring those three up.

because the 2000 tracks the bottom 2000 stocks by market cap and the 3000 is the total index that tracks 98% of all stocks. 500 tracks the top 500 by market cap.


So like people and wealth, the markets where basically the top 10-20% benefit and the bottom 70-80% see a 10% loss. Then you report on how well the markets are doing while ignoring the bottom 70-80%

[Tazkar]

I think if Trump reverses his tax cut and basically reverts to Obama-era economic policy, things will be fine. While Obama was no economic genius, in the course of his eight years, the DOW and economy grew tremendously. The stock market only did better under two other presidents since the Great Depression - Clinton and Roosevelt. Unfortunately it is unlikely their policies would be overly effective in the modern era. We've seen Trump's attempt at policy making only slow growth.

I would be surprised if Trump did that, as while Obama as you said wasn't an economic genius he had the common sense to consult with others that were knowledgeable in such things as well as listen to advice.

Trump consults with himself and in the end thinks he has all the answers himself and it seems to take a concerted effort from others to make him do something that he from the outset disregards or believes is bad no matter what objective evidence is put before him.

[Ghostpanther]

Perhaps you can enlighten me I don't see any of your policy stances that would cross with the democratic party aside from an angry vote for Obama because republicans tanked the economy I just don't see it. If a computer generated a generic republican you would come out only thing it would get wrong is you living in the deep south.

Lol!. Ohio is pretty strong Republican at the present. So is Indiana.

[Blur4stuff]

If you like the economy now you'd have to love it under Obama even more. I still don't know exactly what Trump supporters mean when they say they like his handling of the economy. What exactly do they like that he did? His actions have made it worse than it would have been had he done absolutely nothing.

If Trump had taken zero actions since becoming president the economy would be better right now.

[Zan15]

The stock market will always trend upwards barring some massive collapse of the entire global economy. There, of course, will be depressions and recessions throughout, but the overall trend is always upwards. It's rather difficult for a President to have dramatic impact on the economy. Barring some massive new sweeping regulation, tax cut, or a stimulus package, the economy tends to keep on churning.

We're 30 months into to Trump's presidency. Since he took office, the DOW has gone up 37.6%

(Under other presidents at 30 months, ranked top to bottom)*
Roosevelt: 138.1%
Eisenhower: 60.8%
Obama: 51.8%
Clinton: 42.2%
Ford: 40.6%**
Trump: 37.6%
Bush 1: 29.1%
Reagan: 26.6%
Johnson: 17.8%
Truman: 9.9%
Kennedy: 7.3%
Nixon: -9.3%
Carter: -11.3%
Bush 2: -15.2%

Based on the DOW under all presidents since the Great Depression, we can see that Trump is currently 6/14. We're not dealing with massive drains on our economy for wars like we saw under Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon. Ford had massive spending cuts on the Vietnam war within the first year of his presidency, and we can see it reflected as men returned home and started to contribute to our economy. Eisenhower begun to escalate at the tail end of his presidency, and we see quite a dip in response which carries into Kennedy's short time in office. Carter inherited a bad recession and Bush 2 did everything in his power to combat what he saw as terror in the middle east, which caused a lot of economic damage (coupled with the dot com bubble). Reagan and Bush 1 did all right, but trickle down does not really stimulate much growth, so they had okay numbers. Trump, so far, is mainly riding off of the policies enacted under the Obama administration, barring the one large tax cut which has notably slowed the growth of the stock market. Right up until he did that, he was basically matching pace with how Obama was doing. Since then he's lagged quite a bit behind.

I think if Trump reverses his tax cut and basically reverts to Obama-era economic policy, things will be fine. While Obama was no economic genius, in the course of his eight years, the DOW and economy grew tremendously. The stock market only did better under two other presidents since the Great Depression - Clinton and Roosevelt. Unfortunately it is unlikely their policies would be overly effective in the modern era. We've seen Trump's attempt at policy making only slow growth.

* Most economists like to look at a larger picture than 30 months, so this kind of evaluation will be more useful at the end of Trump's presidency, as some of the people beneath him did much better towards the end of their terms, and some above him tanked downwards
** Ford was only in office 29 months, but his 29th month outperformed Trumps by 6.7%, so I placed him above

Funny thing is.....trump said OBAMA was the worst economy and markets

So if you are 30-40% behind Obama....then what? By his own admission he is worst than the worst.

SP500 is even a bigger gap then the Dow. 56.5% v 32.2%

All this while at this point in Obama's term he saw his worst decline. 4 month drop from +60 to +37%

Once you get to the end of their terms out of that list from the site you are taking it from really Clinton and Obama are #1 and #2 and the closest is Reagan behind by a bunch at 129%.
And Regan had to...wait for it...wait for it....increase the debt by a non war RECORD of 184% to get there. Sounds like Trump is taking a page out of his playbook. People forget that Obama is not the record holder for biggest non war increase in debt its Reagan.




211%
175%
129%


Trump has a lot of work to do to keep up and if he is already counting on rate cuts to get there we are in trouble

[Draco-Onis]

Lol!. Ohio is pretty strong Republican at the present. So is Indiana.

Yea but a cliche right winger like you lives in the South maybe Florida.

[Ghostpanther]

Yea but a cliche right winger like you lives in the South maybe Florida.

Na. There are lots of others like me here in Ohio and Indiana also. Esp. in the part of Ohio I live in. Now if you go up north around Cleveland, different story.

[Vash The Stampede]

So the Dow and S&P500 are at their all time high and people are celebrating because...? You guys know what a bubble is right? That bubble has to pop at some point, along with one hell of a recession to go with it. Sales are down all over the place, retail stores are closing left and right, and the auto industry is ready to collapse. Yet somehow the Dow and S&P are up. I wouldn't be crediting Trump or Obama just yet.

[Ghostpanther]

So the Dow and S&P500 are at their all time high and people are celebrating because...? You guys know what a bubble is right? That bubble has to pop at some point, along with one hell of a recession to go with it. Sales are down all over the place, retail stores are closing left and right, and the auto industry is ready to collapse. Yet somehow the Dow and S&P are up. I wouldn't be crediting Trump or Obama just yet.

Consumer confidence is another indicator of how the economy is doing. You know, the ones who are spending their money on goods.

[Dontrike]

Consumer confidence is another indicator of how the economy is doing. You know, the ones who are spending their money on goods.

[IMG]https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/356e87b1d97ed34bdc530dda9cb0dc9a59677d45.png[/IG]

Nothing like showing a graph based on feelings.

[Vash The Stampede]

Consumer confidence is another indicator of how the economy is doing. You know, the ones who are spending their money on goods.

Facts are facts, but that isn't a fact. I don't even know what to label that. Consumers might buy stuff graph? Meanwhile Amazon is moving into malls to setup shop since they're responsible for closing down a lot of stores in there. The shit will hit the fan around holiday season, because that's when retail expects to pick up their lost sales. It won't happen because people are broke and at max debt.