How big do you think the dropoff will be and when?

[avitush]

What Vanilla did was to make the mmorpg genre more accessible for a larger audience. I came from EQ and some of my old guild mates refused to play WoW because it was too casual.

I'd forgotten about this. I remember that some Everquest players referred to WoW as "Baby's First MMO" for a while there, when WoW was a new thing. Which is kind of amusing when I hear some people talk today about how "hardcore" Classic was and start throwing around the "back in MY day, we walked 5 miles uphill in the snow barefoot!" lines.

[Grogo]

There will be of course that influx at the start. It will settle a bit after that. It will level out and then surge again once people realize (after tipping their toes in when bored of retail) that they just prefer it. That the base is better than what they have. It might not have dungeon finder and free loot, it will just be better, a better base. Remember the people (there was so many of them) who said Classic would never ever in a million years happen? Yeah those same people are now stating rose-colored glasses blah blah blah. Those shit opinions can be brushed off and ignored. I'll just go enjoy Classic have some fun.

[Gorsameth]

I'd forgotten about this. I remember that some Everquest players referred to WoW as "Baby's First MMO" for a while there, when WoW was a new thing. Which is kind of amusing when I hear some people talk today about how "hardcore" Classic was and start throwing around the "back in MY day, we walked 5 miles uphill in the snow barefoot!" lines.

It also happened in WoW itself.

Wrath babies was a common insult for a while (new players who started playing during WotLK when the game got more casual)

[Hinastorm]

I looked it up and I am back to tell you again. If anything, people have MORE time to "throw away".

The age group we're talking about, people who were in highschool in 2004, and people now who are in their low 30's. Generally, I think it's safe to assume that the teenagers had more free time to play an MMO.

Do you disagree?

[Hexme]

I'd say using the Beta/Stress Tests as an idea are kind of flawed because of how many of us didn't want to waste time on them. That said, I'm thoroughly shocked by the number of people in this thread that don't think there will be a very large dropoff. I'd expect 70% or so within 3 months or so. To be honest, I think Classic will bring a lot of players back to try Retail, then they'll stick around on Retail for a while instead.

Majority of people who are gonna play classic, are doing so to play classic and not the flaming garbage that is retail/current WoW. Yea you'll have people who play both but that's gonna be the minority who have nothing to do after mythic + and raiding.

People who are gonna play classic WoW over current WoW are doing so cause it was at a time everything was almost better except for a few quality of life stuff. I'd even make a bold prediction that Blizzard will announce how many people have come back to "WoW" at the end of August boosting their ego, which I'd say a good 2-3 million player increase at the end of August.

[Maudib]

As I pointed out in a previous post, someone went to the trouble of analysing the private server player numbers as best they could and estimated there were 1.3 million active accounts. Consider that many of those would also be TBC/Wrath servers, maybe some Cata servers too, and factor in the lack of cost, and the attraction of high xp rates and instant max level, and you have to wonder how many will be prepared to pay for classic. I just can't see it rivalling retail numbers. I do hope it's a success though, because I really want Wrath servers. Give me an official Blizzard Wrath server and I'll quit retail for good.

You do realize that the 1.3 million were only those that were willing and technically capable of getting the client and modifying it to connect to their pserver of choice?

For every person that was and did... you can bet there were several that wanted to but did not particiapte in a pserver. The potential playerbase for Classic is HUGE.

Consider how many people have stopped playing since.. I dunno.. Cataclysm... Mostly because the game no longer provided them with the experience older WoW is able to provide.

Now consider players who may love WoW in all forms.. but wan;t here in Vanilla... those people that will want to play it to add the experience to their overall WoW "career". As Trump would say... 'It's going to be Yuuuuuuuuggggggee"

[Fascinate]

^^

I guess if people didnt play this game back in the 06-10 days they had no idea how big it was, it was as big as fortnite on a cultural scale....everyone knew what it was.

[TrollHunter3000]

Classic will lose approx 40% of it's players in 3 months. But the 60% that stay will still outnumber those playing BfA.

You just pull these numbers out of your ass?

I don't understand how anyone can say this kind of shit so seriously like they know anything at all.

[Hittion]

I expect a rather large drop off after the first month or so. Especially with how many people are hyping up warriors with no idea how dreadful they are to level.

After though though... I expect a mostly stable population with slight decay over time.

[Fascinate]

You just pull these numbers out of your ass?

I don't understand how anyone can say this kind of shit so seriously like they know anything at all.

I could totally see classic outnumbering retail until the next retail xpac, its going to be far and away more popular on streaming sites and people love to follow streamers.

[toffmcsoft]

Everyone I've talked to that hasn't played wow since Cata/Mop/Legion & Unsubbed in BFA is coming back for classic.
I personally know over 100 people who no longer play wow that are coming back just for Classic.

Also keep in mind, the streamer community is going to be all over wow.
The initial launch and then rushes through each phase.

Classic wow and everything it brings to the streamer toolkit is MASSIVE!
Streamers are going to organize some of the biggest mass player events any game has yet to see.

Think about the weekly raids on the cross faction.
The World bosses getting tremendous exposure.
The griefing at Black Rock mountain...

When you take the pserver community, streamer community, old school players and whoever plays retail - the opportunity is huge.

The drop-off on retail is going to hit REAL HARD. It's a domino effect on players and one signing on to classic leads to another signing on, etc.

Just think, we get an opportunity to relive some of the greatest dungeon experiences of all time.
The opportunity of being part of a FRESH wow from the start again... Something that we may or may not ever experience in our lifetimes again!

Any best of all, CLOSED REALMS again.
Closed realms, communities & economy's are beyond too attractive.

Players who haven't experienced CLOSED REALMs are in for a real treat.

[Fascinate]

Everyone I've talked to that hasn't played wow since Cata/Mop/Legion & Unsubbed in BFA is coming back for classic.
I personally know over 100 people who no longer play wow that are coming back just for Classic.

Also keep in mind, the streamer community is going to be all over wow.
The initial launch and then rushes through each phase.

Classic wow and everything it brings to the streamer toolkit is MASSIVE!
Streamers are going to organize some of the biggest mass player events any game has yet to see.

Think about the weekly raids on the cross faction.
The World bosses getting tremendous exposure.
The griefing at Black Rock mountain...

When you take the pserver community, streamer community, old school players and whoever plays retail - the opportunity is huge.

The drop-off on retail is going to hit REAL HARD. It's a domino effect on players and one signing on to classic leads to another signing on, etc.

Just think, we get an opportunity to relive some of the greatest dungeon experiences of all time.
The opportunity of being part of a FRESH wow from the start again... Something that we may or may not ever experience in our lifetimes again!

Any best of all, CLOSED REALMS again.
Closed realms, communities & economy's are beyond too attractive.

Players who haven't experienced CLOSED REALMs are in for a real treat.

Classic launch truly is something people don't want to miss, the one thing i dont quite get is why blizzard isnt advertising for it.....surely whatever they would spend on twitch (for example) would be easily made up by day 1 returning subs.

[calanos]

Classic launch truly is something people don't want to miss, the one thing i dont quite get is why blizzard isnt advertising for it.....surely whatever they would spend on twitch (for example) would be easily made up by day 1 returning subs.

I think classic will see a lot of players upfront, but something like 90-95% of people who play won't make it to 60. I was in college when the game came out, lead a 40 man guild in vanilla that probably had 150 players in it...and I do know a LOT of them I have kept in contact with over the years who haven't played since Vanilla/BC/Wrath are planning to come back for Classic.

But most of those people are ~30-40 with multiple kids and full time jobs now. I was in the beta and liked it waaaay more than I thought I would, but I still quit playing at like 25 because levels were just taking too long. I would think I get further outside of a beta where no wipe is incoming, but nobody I know from back then that I still play other games with plays anywhere close to enough to make it to 60 unless they play for 8-12 months. Which they wont do.

If I had to guess, approximately as many, or maybe even 150-200% of the number of current retail accounts will end up playing classic within the first 2 months. Probably a good 30% of them (mostly retail players who were too young to play at launch or just didnt play back then) will quit playing before they make it out of Elywn or early Barrens, another 50% will make it to 25-40ish and quit, 10% or so will burn out in the high 40s/low 50s when the slog really starts. So maybe 1 in 10 or so makes it to 60, where I would think not all that many stay for very long since Vanilla was all about the adventure to 60 and the endgame was frankly pretty crappy especially early on.

Those that do make it to endgame and have played the game (or any other MMO) for most of the last 15 years are going to DESTROY the content though.

[EternalEd]

There's going to be multiple drop offs, first big one will be after the 2nd month, next one will be around month 8 or so I think, and then just slowly losing more and more players. People are going to get mad when they believe they are gonna be gods but get smacked.

[Skjaldbjorn]

I'm guessing the biggest drop off will be in the first 2-4 weeks when peoples monthly sub ends.

[Vorkreist]

The level 40 mount does not require days of farming and crafting. It's cheap enough that if you've been selling greys and greens the entire time, you should have it without having to go out of your way.

No its not. You won't have 100 gold from selling questing trash. Just skill leveling for one spec burns most of what you make.

[Beastiel]

No its not. You won't have 100 gold from selling questing trash. Just skill leveling for one spec burns most of what you make.

Yes you will. if you're looting 100% of drops and selling them you should have atleast 80% of what you need. You must have been playing incredibly wastefully. this isn't really debatable.

[Multitorix Davlen]

No its not. You won't have 100 gold from selling questing trash. Just skill leveling for one spec burns most of what you make.

If you are buying all of your skills, this statement is correct. But there are skills that provide very little or next to nothing in terms of helping you level and you SHOULD be skipping on purchasing. For an example, the elemental resist totems (fire, frost you name it) and flametongue totem (no one used it) are stuff im skipping. In the beta I was just short 6 gold upon hitting 40 leveling bout 95% solo (other 5% from a few dungeon quests and a few SM graveyard chest farms).

[Coldfrostzero]

Beta was alive and kicking until the majority hit the 30 cap. After a week or two of people at 30 cap, a lot of people started to drop off. A week or so after the cap was raised to 40, the game was basically empty.

I think that there will be a lot who stay once things become permanent, but even with there being only 2 servers on the beta for them to be empty at peak evening hours is kind of alarming.

[MiiiMiii]

The age group we're talking about, people who were in highschool in 2004, and people now who are in their low 30's. Generally, I think it's safe to assume that the teenagers had more free time to play an MMO.

Do you disagree?

What makes you think only people that played Vanilla is interested in Classic? Are you saying todays kids won't play Classic?