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  1. #1

    Release Timeline Prediction between now and Shadowlands

    Did some math this morning, given recent release cycles and our knowledge that 8.3 will drop in January. Based on that, here are my predictions for your consideration.

    8.3 - January 21, 2020. This puts the release at 106 days from 8.2.5, which is the same approximate time it took from 8.1.5 to 8.2 (105 days). includes everything we've seen up to this point for Visions of N'Zoth. Update Release is set at 1/14/20, which gives more reason to get an 8.3.5

    8.3.5 - April 21, 2020. exactly 91 days later (same as 8.1 to 8.1.5) (Update: 98 days later if this holds against the 8.3 release above)Gives us a final patch with the remaining allied races that are being heavily hinted toward in:
    • The character select screen
    • The Embassy in game
    • The placement of factions and character models similar to worgen/undead (the last two races without an allied equivalent)
    Update: No 8.3.5 is planned, per Ion.

    9.0 - October 13, 2020 Update: Without 8.3.5, this gets bumped to around 7/7/2020. A summer release would be a better overall option to a fall release when school starts.
    175 days after 8.3 gives a perfect timeframe compared to when 7.3.5 became 8.0. We will likely see updated Hallow's End items/offerings along with 8.3.5 that won't be open to get anyway until this date.

    So, there it is. The math supports it. Lemme know what you think of this potential release schedule.

  2. #2
    Updated Hallow's End items would be really fun to see!
    As for the release dates, it seems pretty plausible.

  3. #3
    The Patient Bwonsamdi the Dead's Avatar
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    Hallow's End is heavily Death-themed, so it would fit the new expansion to a T. It would be cool for them to put something in the Shadowlands themselves too

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  4. #4
    One of the most certain things we know about the ultimate release date is that it will be mid to late November 2020 based on the last several expansions preorders.

    That still leaves room for a Halloween themed prepatch though.

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  5. #5
    The Lightbringer Sinndra's Avatar
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    this makes me think 8.3 will be before Christmas holidays.

    the raid ofc, wont open until much later.

    however, for that to be true, we would need to see release candidate build in the next few days.
    Quote Originally Posted by ablib View Post
    I do realize that this is an internet forum full of morons, however in real life, no one questions me, people look to me for the answer, look up to me, trust me. To have dipshits on a video game forum question me, is insulting.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Sinndra View Post
    [IMG]


    this makes me think 8.3 will be before Christmas holidays.

    the raid ofc, wont open until much later.

    however, for that to be true, we would need to see release candidate build in the next few days.
    Blizzard already confirmed the patch won't come out until the new year.
    Given teh Winter veil items we were probably planned to get it before the new year, with the raid coming sometime in January, but there seemed to have been complications along the way necessaitating a delay, which given it happened so close to Christmas holiday probably just meant Blizzard decided to delay it to January instead of pushing their luck with a major patch being released so close to a point where most of the devs are away from the studio, and cannot make bugfixes.

  7. #7
    The Lightbringer Sinndra's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sondrelk View Post
    Blizzard already confirmed the patch won't come out until the new year.
    Given teh Winter veil items we were probably planned to get it before the new year, with the raid coming sometime in January, but there seemed to have been complications along the way necessaitating a delay, which given it happened so close to Christmas holiday probably just meant Blizzard decided to delay it to January instead of pushing their luck with a major patch being released so close to a point where most of the devs are away from the studio, and cannot make bugfixes.
    i vaguely remember them saying something about after the holidays... i thought a dev said the raid.. which as we've seen, we dont need to hold the entire patch for the raid.

    but yah, if we dont have release candidate by tuesday, it wont be until january then. just seems really weird to include that gem just a few builds ago, especially if they knew during blizzcon the entire patch wouldnt be out until after the holidays.


    - - - Updated - - -
    after checking in game calendar, i dont think there is time to get that in prior to even Christmas Day with the customary 2 weeks from first release candidate.

    damn, the short December this year.
    Last edited by Sinndra; 2019-12-07 at 04:12 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by ablib View Post
    I do realize that this is an internet forum full of morons, however in real life, no one questions me, people look to me for the answer, look up to me, trust me. To have dipshits on a video game forum question me, is insulting.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Edlarel View Post
    Did some math this morning, given recent release cycles and our knowledge that 8.3 will drop in January. Based on that, here are my predictions for your consideration.

    8.3 - January 21, 2020. This puts the release at 106 days from 8.2.5, which is the same approximate time it took from 8.1.5 to 8.2 (105 days). includes everything we've seen up to this point for Visions of N'Zoth.

    8.3.5 - April 21, 2020. exactly 91 days later (same as 8.1 to 8.1.5) Gives us a final patch with the remaining allied races that are being heavily hinted toward in:
    • The character select screen
    • The Embassy in game
    • The placement of factions and character models similar to worgen/undead (the last two races without an allied equivalent)

    9.0 - October 13, 2020. 175 days after 8.3.5 gives a perfect timeframe compared to when 7.3.5 became 8.0 and allows 2 weeks of events before release of Shadowlands just before Halloween. We will likely see updated Hallow's End items/offerings along with 8.3.5 that won't be open to get anyway until this date.

    So, there it is. The math supports it, and even if they push the release out closer to the end of the year, it makes me more certain there will be an 8.3.5. Lemme know what you think of this potential release schedule, and what content you hope will show up in an 8.3.5 alongside assumed allied races.

    I think you're pretty spot on with most of this. I'll disagree on additional allied races. I believe at blizzcon they said they had no plans right now for additional allied races. I'm also not sure we'll see an 8.2.5 in april, or maybe not at all. But I think your January and October dates are spot on.

  9. #9
    To infinity and beyond det's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edlarel View Post
    Did some math this morning, given recent release cycles and our knowledge that 8.3 will drop in January. Based on that, here are my predictions for your consideration.

    8.3 - January 21, 2020. This puts the release at 106 days from 8.2.5, which is the same approximate time it took from 8.1.5 to 8.2 (105 days). includes everything we've seen up to this point for Visions of N'Zoth.

    8.3.5 - April 21, 2020. exactly 91 days later (same as 8.1 to 8.1.5) Gives us a final patch with the remaining allied races that are being heavily hinted toward in:
    • The character select screen
    • The Embassy in game
    • The placement of factions and character models similar to worgen/undead (the last two races without an allied equivalent)

    9.0 - October 13, 2020. 175 days after 8.3.5 gives a perfect timeframe compared to when 7.3.5 became 8.0 and allows 2 weeks of events before release of Shadowlands just before Halloween. We will likely see updated Hallow's End items/offerings along with 8.3.5 that won't be open to get anyway until this date.

    So, there it is. The math supports it, and even if they push the release out closer to the end of the year, it makes me more certain there will be an 8.3.5. Lemme know what you think of this potential release schedule, and what content you hope will show up in an 8.3.5 alongside assumed allied races.
    Sounds generally fine...I mean..I certainly won't argue the exact day, but give or take a week...this should be ok. Obviously it is debatable if we get 8.3.5 at all....but I have no idea what you mean by Allied races being hinted on the character screen or embassy - so no 8.3.5 could pull 9.0 ahead.

    One question...I remember times when the.0 patch was not the release of the new x-pac. IIRC 3.0 was not the release of WotLC - just a time that changed classes and stuff and made for example SWP faceroll. Do you consider 9.0 the release of the actual x-pac then?

    But maybe my memory is off - though I am pretty sure that we had trouble in SWP and then facerolled it at leasts once, maybe twice and WotLK was definitely not out yet?

    EDIT: Just checked, 3.0.2 hit October 14th, WotLK released November 13th (and there even was a 3.0.3 inbetween) https://wow.gamepedia.com/Patch_3.0.2
    Last edited by det; 2019-12-07 at 07:02 AM.

  10. #10
    Banned Mirishka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinndra View Post



    this makes me think 8.3 will be before Christmas holidays.

    the raid ofc, wont open until much later.

    however, for that to be true, we would need to see release candidate build in the next few days.
    They've confirmed 8.3 will be early 2020, sadly.

  11. #11
    To infinity and beyond det's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mirishka View Post
    They've confirmed 8.3 will be early 2020, sadly.
    That little guy would still be a nice surprise in a parcel under the big tree

  12. #12
    Banned Mirishka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by det View Post
    That little guy would still be a nice surprise in a parcel under the big tree
    Agreed. I'm surprised he wasn't included in 8.2.5's data.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edlarel View Post
    Did some math this morning, given recent release cycles and our knowledge that 8.3 will drop in January. Based on that, here are my predictions for your consideration.

    8.3 - January 21, 2020. This puts the release at 106 days from 8.2.5, which is the same approximate time it took from 8.1.5 to 8.2 (105 days). includes everything we've seen up to this point for Visions of N'Zoth.

    8.3.5 - April 21, 2020. exactly 91 days later (same as 8.1 to 8.1.5) Gives us a final patch with the remaining allied races that are being heavily hinted toward in:
    • The character select screen
    • The Embassy in game
    • The placement of factions and character models similar to worgen/undead (the last two races without an allied equivalent)

    9.0 - October 13, 2020. 175 days after 8.3.5 gives a perfect timeframe compared to when 7.3.5 became 8.0 and allows 2 weeks of events before release of Shadowlands just before Halloween. We will likely see updated Hallow's End items/offerings along with 8.3.5 that won't be open to get anyway until this date.

    So, there it is. The math supports it, and even if they push the release out closer to the end of the year, it makes me more certain there will be an 8.3.5. Lemme know what you think of this potential release schedule, and what content you hope will show up in an 8.3.5 alongside assumed allied races.
    I think that is a fair timeline but I think they will want people to be 60 when the Hallow's End event hits so the only thing I would change from your list is that 9.0 will hit October 6 instead of the 13th. The pre-patch will hit a month before that.

  14. #14
    Yeeesh... I don't have any problem with your math, but the idea of 8.3 in *late* january makes me glad I've moved on to other options until said patch drops. Going through the holidays and then three weeks after without new goals huuuurts!

    I fully respect all of the family-based reasons for placing the patch after the holidays, but I've got 10 days at home in there with my main game offering me either nothing new or a bunch of "don't do it now, post-patch is smarter" activities!

  15. #15
    It's more or less what I predict. Also it lines pretty well with Blizzcon '20, which would have new classes for PVP tournaments, new dungeons for MDI and 9.1+9.1.5 reveal - this time they wouldn't have to spoil whole game 6 months ahead like with early 7.2 and 8.2 reveals.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrLachyG View Post
    I think that is a fair timeline but I think they will want people to be 60 when the Hallow's End event hits so the only thing I would change from your list is that 9.0 will hit October 6 instead of the 13th. The pre-patch will hit a month before that.
    There is also problem with first raid tier. Mythic race start (at least since WoD) 4 weeks after launch. Blizzcon '20 will likely be on 6th-7th November, so 6th October for launch is out of picture, probably 13th too.
    Last edited by Dracullus; 2019-12-07 at 08:23 AM.

  16. #16
    Mechagnome saintminya's Avatar
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    I think this timeline is mostly spot on, although I anticipate a late september or early october release.

  17. #17
    Shadowlands Q1 2021. Mark my words!

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by otaXephon View Post
    Shadowlands Q1 2021. Mark my words!
    legally they can't release in 2021

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Dracullus View Post
    It's more or less what I predict. Also it lines pretty well with Blizzcon '20, which would have new classes for PVP tournaments, new dungeons for MDI and 9.1+9.1.5 reveal - this time they wouldn't have to spoil whole game 6 months ahead like with early 7.2 and 8.2 reveals.



    There is also problem with first raid tier. Mythic race start (at least since WoD) 4 weeks after launch. Blizzcon '20 will likely be on 6th-7th November, so 6th October for launch is out of picture, probably 13th too.
    yeah that is a good point. well I then revise my prediction to 22nd September. that gives enough time for people to hit 60 before Hallows End and mythic race (which would start Oct 20) won't interfere with Blizzcon

  19. #19
    The Unstoppable Force Puupi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrLachyG View Post
    legally they can't release in 2021
    Of course they can. It only means that everyone who preordered is eligible for a refund.
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  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Puupi View Post
    Of course they can. It only means that everyone who preordered is eligible for a refund.
    which would be an unmitigated disaster for them. they will release in 2020 I am confident of that. if a zone was basically done and fleshed out with enough quests to be playable by end of October 2019 then the game will be ready next year

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