Saudi Arabia's Yemen campaign ends in disaster.

[Gamevizier]

For those who have not been following the news. Saudi Arabia's intervention in Yemen was meant to defeat the uprising by Houthis and Saleh's forces. The Houthis were allegedly backed by Iran. The previous president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, gave up power to Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi during the Arab uprising. Hadi was backed by Saudi Arabia and was ousted from power following the 2015 popular uprising by combined forces of Houthi militias and Saleh loyalists, which took place due to dissatisfaction with Hadi's government.

following Hadi's departure and his escape to Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia attempted to rally the Arab world to intervene and defeat Saleh and the Houthi forces in a US-like military campaign. Iran was used as the boogeyman to scare arab nations to lend aid to Saudi Arabia's campaign. This coalition managed to stop the government from falling apart, but at a great cost.

now, about 4 years later, Saudi Arabia is locked in a quagmire and is growing ever more isolated in it's campaign. The Houthis, after executing Saleh and taking over his remaining forces, managed to dig in and hold their positions west of Yemen. But a few weeks ago something peculiar happened. The UAE held a security meeting with Iranian officials following an announcement by UAE to pull back half of their forces (most of which are foreign mercenaries) from Yemen which effectively left Saudi Arabia alone to lead the civil war.

and now, only a few days ago this happened.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/...144214211.html

Apparently the UAE-backed separatist forces took control of Aden after fighting and defeating Saudi-backed government forces. So it seems that this so-called coalition has descended into a civil war itself, With UAE emerging victorious. It appears that Saudi Arabia's campaign, after 4 years of bloodshed which created a humanitarian catastrophe, is about to end in utter disaster.

What does that mean for the region? the intervention was meant to mark Saudi Arabia's rise as a regional power-player and ensure regional allies that following America's partial departure from the Middle East (which is gradually happening) Saudi Arabia can be relied on to carry out military operations and ensure that the western backed regional hegemony stays intact. The disaster that was the Yemen Civil war, alongside the events that happened in Syria and Iraq, are showing the exact opposite: that Saudi Arabia and it's allies cannot be relied on to hold their own against Iran's growing influence in the region.

Saudi Arabia has gradually lost it's allies following their radical and bold decisions towards their neighbors. They led a blockade against Qatar which did not do much to bring Qatar back into the fold but served to move Qatar from the coalition even further towards Iran and Turkey, They held Lebanon's prime minister hostage hoping that it will get Lebanon to switch sides only to have the french president intervene and free the official (which ironically served to prove Iran's point that Hariri is just a Saudi puppet), They lost Egypt and Pakistan's support in their Yemen war, and finally they have fallen out of favor in US following the death of the Saudi journalist Khashoggi, with many US lawmakers truly questioning whether or not Saudi Arabians can be considered allies after their dismal record of human rights violation.

This has been in the work for some years now, the sudden escalation between the US and Iran also boils down to US' fears that Iran is on it's way to topple Saudi Arabia's hegemony in the region. This hegemony however was never truly created by SA though, they are just taking over America's role. This recent escalation and war of words was not really about Iran obtaining nukes or Iran being anti-Israeli, It is about Iran becoming a regional power-player that can dominate the region which to Iran sounds even better than obtaining nukes. (which was meant to serve as a deterrent force to begin with) Iranian authorities are aware that USA does not want a full-scale war, which is why they have grown bold and sure of their actions as of late.

Why is this important though? With the UAE-backed forces taking over Yemen and the UAE trying to reach out to Iran, It appears that UAE is seriously considering leaving the SA-backed coalition and focus more on it's national interests. This would tilt the balance of region further towards Iran, with UAE breaking ranks Saudi Arabia might actually be left truly alone in the region in it's goal to mimic America's influence.

[Ihavewaffles]

Isnt uae wahhabi ewul as well though?..

[Ihavewaffles]

What does that have to do with anything the OP said? Why are you trying to derail on the second post?

Rebels in western yemen, thats shia.

Uae is sunni, like saudi a is.

[Gamevizier]

Isnt uae wahhabi ewul as well though?..

UAE and Saudi Arabia both oppose the Houthis, however they have different goals for Yemen. UAE wants to pull out of Yemen and end the civil war while Saudi Arabia wants to achieve total victory over the Houthis and the Yemeni Rebels before anything else. nearly 5 years of stalemate has shown UAE that Saudi's goal cannot be reached without great costs, and even then there would be a chance of it failing. Now the takeover by UAE-backed separatists shows just how deep the divide between the two sides are becoming.

UAE doesn't really care about the Houthis that much as they are clearly just a thorn on Saudi Arabia's side. Their reach doesn't threaten UAE as it is geographically far away from the Houthi controlled territories. Saudi Arabia however will face volatile southern borders and has been targeted by Houthi drones and missles. So a Yemen divided between Houthis and South Yemenis is still a win in UAE's book (which kinda brings Yemen back to the days where it was split) but that does count as a loss for SA.

[Gaexion Ramza Beoulve]

All this pain and suffering because an invisible wizard did a magic trick in the desert 5,000 years ago.

[caervek]

Saudi Arabi should take a long hard look at Afghanistan, if the freaking United States of America couldn't defeat the Taliban in 18 years (yes, the War in Afghanistan which resulted from 9/11 has been going on for 18 years) and have had to resort to negotiation what chance do SA really think they have in a similar battle lol.

All this pain and suffering because an invisible wizard did a magic trick in the desert 5,000 years ago.

*1,300 years ago. Islam is actually the youngest of the major faiths.

[Deletedaccount1]

Saudi Arabi should take a long hard look at Afghanistan, if the freaking United States of America couldn't defeat the Taliban in 18 years (yes, the War in Afghanistan which resulted from 9/11 has been going on for 18 years) and have had to resort to negotiation what chance do SA really think they have in a similar battle lol.

It is much more winnable for Saudi Arabia I think. We have never had a surge in Afghanistan and it's a land locked country on the other side of the world from the US where the Taliban have mountain ranges the size of the Rockies to disappear in.

[Flarelaine]

It is much more winnable for Saudi Arabia I think. We have never had a surge in Afghanistan and it's a land locked country on the other side of the world from the US where the Taliban have mountain ranges the size of the Rockies to disappear in.

Yemen has comparable mountains. And while Saudi Arabia has their pick of any NATO weaponry, I'm not convinced their training or organization is actually comparable to the US Army.

[Deletedaccount1]

Yemen has comparable mountains. And while Saudi Arabia has their pick of any NATO weaponry, I'm not convinced their training or organization is actually comparable to the US Army.

We haven't won in Afghanistan because we have chosen not to. Policy makers have not decided that a surge there is worth the political cost it would have. We basically won in Iraq after the surge and it was only after that did the next administration make the decision to abandon that victory.

[ABEEnr2]

We haven't won in Afghanistan because we have chosen not to. Policy makers have not decided that a surge there is worth the political cost it would have. We basically won in Iraq after the surge and it was only after that did the next administration make the decision to abandon that victory.

what victory are u talking about? leaving millions dead and screwing the entire region with it?

[stevenho]

US needs to export democracy to Yemen ASAP.

[Felya]

US needs to export democracy to Yemen ASAP.

We are... those are American weapons they are using. Trump used his veto to override congress, so US can continue to sell SA weapons.

[Gestopft]

US needs to export democracy to Yemen ASAP.

I think we've probably learned by now that it's a lot easier said than done...

[Deletedaccount1]

what victory are u talking about? leaving millions dead and screwing the entire region with it?

Beating the Insurgency. Millions didn't die.

[Thekri]

Beating the Insurgency. Millions didn't die.

You might want to stick to rewriting history that people alive today didn't live through...

[Deletedaccount1]

You might want to stick to rewriting history that people alive today didn't live through...

The surge was successful. Obama and Hillary admitted as much after beating McCain over the head with it for 2 years.

[Thekri]

The surge was successful. Obama and Hillary admitted as much after beating McCain over the head with it for 2 years.

It was operationally successful, not strategically. You are forcing your ideology onto the reality of what happened. The US military was extremely successful both tactically and operationally in both Afghanistan and Iraq, both with and without the surge. But lack of any sort of strategic vision and policy doomed both wars from the beginning. Saudi Arabia is in the same boat in Yemen, because politicians never learn from war, because they never acknowledge their responsibilities to it.

The surge left multiple insurgencies shattered, but it also left the government in the hands of Nouri al-Malaki, who was eager to assist US efforts to combat Sunni extremism. al-Malaki is a Shia, and he increasingly purged Sunnis from the government and disenfranchised them in elections to ensure they never took control. This left the majority religious sect in the country with no stake in government, and thus left the government illegitimate in the eyes of the majority of the country. ISIS was the response to that, as it was a massive Sunni uprising.

All the surge really accomplished is to prove that uprisings could not succeed against the United States, it did nothing to actually address the cause of the violence in the first place, and it permanently doomed long term peace efforts in Iraq, because we essentially used a sledgehammer where we needed finesse. The Sunni revolts that went underground during the surge immediately got to work rebuilding undercover, and waiting until the US left.

[Deletedaccount1]

It was operationally successful, not strategically. You are forcing your ideology onto the reality of what happened. The US military was extremely successful both tactically and operationally in both Afghanistan and Iraq, both with and without the surge. But lack of any sort of strategic vision and policy doomed both wars from the beginning. Saudi Arabia is in the same boat in Yemen, because politicians never learn from war, because they never acknowledge their responsibilities to it.

The surge left multiple insurgencies shattered, but it also left the government in the hands of Nouri al-Malaki, who was eager to assist US efforts to combat Sunni extremism. al-Malaki is a Shia, and he increasingly purged Sunnis from the government and disenfranchised them in elections to ensure they never took control. This left the majority religious sect in the country with no stake in government, and thus left the government illegitimate in the eyes of the majority of the country. ISIS was the response to that, as it was a massive Sunni uprising.

All the surge really accomplished is to prove that uprisings could not succeed against the United States, it did nothing to actually address the cause of the violence in the first place, and it permanently doomed long term peace efforts in Iraq, because we essentially used a sledgehammer where we needed finesse. The Sunni revolts that went underground during the surge immediately got to work rebuilding undercover, and waiting until the US left.

I agree with everything you just said, especially the end which makes a compelling case for why we shouldn't have left the way we did.

[Rustedsaint]

It was a disaster to begin with,
So much blood and money spilled there without any real purpose besides being a metaphoric dick measuring contest between SA and Iran.
Neither of these countries give a shit about the people having their lives destroyed.

[ABEEnr2]

Beating the Insurgency. Millions didn't die.

What Insurgency are u talking about again? I'm getting confused here. Also millions did die because of the US actions, it just ur government hates to admit that what they did was an F up.