Originally Posted by
Mikah
Your math is pretty bad...
You are assuming that 100% of the player that were on retail either stayed on retail or are back on retail, which is far from the reality...
And you are assuming that half of those that quite were only on classic, but you include those playing retails in the drop in subs, which also does not reflect the reality considering that the current retail is in the end of the cycle when typically most of the players are taking a break..
Let's take your assumptions with numbers: you start with 100 in retail, and subs tripled, that means you add 200 in classic (we can at least assume that people that subbed did so to play classic, no reason to suddenly play retail on August 26th), PLUS a certain number from retail that moved to classic.
So at this point, retail is at 100 - x, and classic is at 200 + x. For example, if 50% of those on retail tried classic, they are left with 50 on retail and 250 on classic. That is at launch.
Now let's say you are right and half of the people quit (we have no idea, really), then the 200 + x is divided by 2, not 300 divided by 2, because again, we assume that the retail population remains stable at this point. There is no reason that people that were subbed to retail and playing retail start unsubbing because Classic gets boring after killing Ragnaros.
It is possible that those playing retail that had moved to classic are returning to retail. But again, I doubt many players that subbed to play classic will start playing retail again if they get bored of classic.
But let's assume, in an extreme case scenario, that all those playing retail who tried classic are back to retail, then retail would be back at 100. And if 50% of those playing classic leaves, that is 200 divided by 2, which is 100.
So if your initial number is true that the number of subs tripled at the launch of Classic (is that from the Activition reports???), in the worst possible scenario, where everyone that were playing retail are back to retail, no one playing retail unsubbed and you loose 50% of the people playing Classic (where does that 50% comes from), you are left with 100 on each side, or an equal number of paying accounts.
If your number of 50% of the players that left classic is true, but you also have some people playing retail who left because their guilds are not raiding anymore or whatever, and that some players that moved from retail to classic are still playing classic (which there are), then the number of players playing classic has to be greater then the number of players playing retail.