Don't "seasons" kinda cancel the age old "year long raid tier" idea?

[Omedon]

I'm seeing a lot of people assuming that, because of some intuition of "early development" for Shadowlands at Blizzcon, we're somehow doomed to a late 2020 release and not the usual late august to early october window that's become (in my opinion, intentionally) the standard for the last two expansions.

While I'm sure there are a lot of good reasons for or against this viewpoint, the assumption I've had all along is that the real bullet in the argument is how much they have pushed these all-encompassing "seasons" as the branding for the content rollout cadence. The idea being that WoW has and must(?) reset its power curve every 6 months with an X.Y patch so every season is equally worth re-subbing for as it relates to efficiently rewarding power resets. It's been my assumption that the reasons every patch and subsequent raid-a-month-later moment in BFA has felt a bit "later" is to lock that 6 month window down to even remain true between 8.3 and 9.0.

Doesn't a seasonal branding kind of fit in with the idea that the answer to "why not just wait for the last patch because that's when *everything* will be out" is "even the expansion tail is only 6 months so don't do that, play now" as a purely marketing decision? Doesn't an expansion tail of 9 months or so kind of... break that whole idea?

I just don't see how a seasonal branding works when one season is 1.5x longer than the others. The sense of intentional FOMO that comes with this approach is just evaporated if we're back to "the smart game is to sub at X.3."

Am I missing something? How does seasonal cadence branding work with a prediction of "no shadowlands until november-december?"

[Gaidax]

Am I missing something? How does seasonal cadence branding work with a prediction of "no shadowlands until november-december?"

If it won't be ready by August it won't release in August. Not sure what's hard to understand there.

Expansion is a lot bigger effort than a patch, so it's not out of realm of possibility that it can take more than usual 6 months give or take.

- - - Updated - - -

I, personally, hope they will release August/September, but they can indeed end up releasing December too if they decide things need more time and it's worth the wait.

[Garymorilix]

I'm seeing a lot of people assuming that, because of some intuition of "early development" for Shadowlands at Blizzcon, we're somehow doomed to a late 2020 release and not the usual late august to early october window that's become (in my opinion, intentionally) the standard for the last two expansions.

While I'm sure there are a lot of good reasons for or against this viewpoint, the assumption I've had all along is that the real bullet in the argument is how much they have pushed these all-encompassing "seasons" as the branding for the content rollout cadence. The idea being that WoW has and must(?) reset its power curve every 6 months with an X.Y patch so every season is equally worth re-subbing for as it relates to efficiently rewarding power resets. It's been my assumption that the reasons every patch and subsequent raid-a-month-later moment in BFA has felt a bit "later" is to lock that 6 month window down to even remain true between 8.3 and 9.0.

Doesn't a seasonal branding kind of fit in with the idea that the answer to "why not just wait for the last patch because that's when *everything* will be out" is "even the expansion tail is only 6 months so don't do that, play now" as a purely marketing decision? Doesn't an expansion tail of 9 months or so kind of... break that whole idea?

I just don't see how a seasonal branding works when one season is 1.5x longer than the others. The sense of intentional FOMO that comes with this approach is just evaporated if we're back to "the smart game is to sub at X.3."

Am I missing something? How does seasonal cadence branding work with a prediction of "no shadowlands until november-december?"

You don't 'raid a month later' after a patch. 2 weeks and both normal and hc open up after the patch.
It's not a BfA thing either. Expacs before done the same.

We are certainly seeing a later release than August. I would put it to Late october, maybe 2 weeks before Blizzcon.
They need to talk about something on Blizzcon. Which will most likely be 9.1 and some hints towards 9.2.
You can see that when you buy Shadowlands now it says "available in December or earlier".
This would definitely line up well.

The reason why we get it later than August is because many systems in 8.3 are actually systems they need info about for 9.0.
Corruption items - they said they will actively watch it during 8.3
The endless 1-5 player mode Visions, which is basically Thorghast lite.

These are brand new systems and they need to evaluate their short and long-term effects cuz they will also be centerpieces in Shadowlands.

[Monster Hunter]

I'm seeing a lot of people assuming that, because of some intuition of "early development" for Shadowlands at Blizzcon, we're somehow doomed to a late 2020 release and not the usual late august to early october window that's become (in my opinion, intentionally) the standard for the last two expansions.

While I'm sure there are a lot of good reasons for or against this viewpoint, the assumption I've had all along is that the real bullet in the argument is how much they have pushed these all-encompassing "seasons" as the branding for the content rollout cadence. The idea being that WoW has and must(?) reset its power curve every 6 months with an X.Y patch so every season is equally worth re-subbing for as it relates to efficiently rewarding power resets. It's been my assumption that the reasons every patch and subsequent raid-a-month-later moment in BFA has felt a bit "later" is to lock that 6 month window down to even remain true between 8.3 and 9.0.

Doesn't a seasonal branding kind of fit in with the idea that the answer to "why not just wait for the last patch because that's when *everything* will be out" is "even the expansion tail is only 6 months so don't do that, play now" as a purely marketing decision? Doesn't an expansion tail of 9 months or so kind of... break that whole idea?

I just don't see how a seasonal branding works when one season is 1.5x longer than the others. The sense of intentional FOMO that comes with this approach is just evaporated if we're back to "the smart game is to sub at X.3."

Am I missing something? How does seasonal cadence branding work with a prediction of "no shadowlands until november-december?"

There's been a few mti season raid tiers in the past. It's not unusual for the last raid to cover 2 seasons. Seasons are more a pvp and m+ thing

[Video Games]

They only called them seasons because its popular to do that and theres no tier sets

[Unlimited Power]

I think their "seasonal" branding only really applies to mythic+ in the first place. But as to whether an individual should just wait until x.3 to play will depend heavily on the kind of content they find engaging.

If you want to progress mythic raids with your guild, waiting until 3 of them are over with is self defeating. If you want to do pvp, any "season" will do. If you just want to experience the story by questing and doing LFR then sure, you might as well save some money and wait until all of it has been released.

[Nevcairiel]

Doesn't a seasonal branding kind of fit in with the idea that the answer to "why not just wait for the last patch because that's when *everything* will be out" is "even the expansion tail is only 6 months so don't do that, play now" as a purely marketing decision? Doesn't an expansion tail of 9 months or so kind of... break that whole idea?

I just don't see how a seasonal branding works when one season is 1.5x longer than the others. The sense of intentional FOMO that comes with this approach is just evaporated if we're back to "the smart game is to sub at X.3."

This argument has always been nonsensical to me, because people that play like this don't actually like the game, and I'm not sure why they keep coming back at all.

Whats the point coming back at the end of the expansion, when all prior content is basically irrelevant due to new catch-up gear? Do you enjoy rushing through old irrelevant content once as a tourist, and then wait another 2 years to do the same thing for the next expansion? Why do you still play? Collect gear? In 8.3? Just to have it all made irrelevant in 9.0?

People that actually enjoy playing WoW will play at the beginning of new content, because thats when its the most fun. Gear you get still matters for a while, since you can put it to use right away, get stronger, beat more bosses, get even stronger.

[rips]

seasons destroys mmo

[Relapses]

"A delayed game is eventually good. A rushed game is forever bad." -Shigeru Miyamoto

As anti-player as this statement is, it's one which I believe Blizzard has founded a lot of its credence on design philosophy. Content droughts especially suck in subscription-based MMOs but I don't see Blizzard caving in to pressure from above to meet an arbitrary deadline at the cost of their reputation.

(Given this, it makes the absolute nightmare which was WoD's launch even more inexecusable.)

[Polarthief]

I, personally, hope they will release August/September, but they can indeed end up releasing December too if they decide things need more time and it's worth the wait.

The problem is even with a new patch in January, there's no way BfA will be sustainable for another year. Even a November release of Shadowlands is pushing it. BfA has to put the sub count at an all-time low (honestly shocked, and more pissed, we're getting a huge raid tier instead of just moving on to 9.0). They can't possibly think this will last til Q4 2020.

Also consider this: They're delaying 8.3 because of holiday season, so September at the latest would be a nice drop since there's no major holidays to get in the way for quite awhile, meaning Octoberish would be when the raid drops, so all the hardcore teams would be done before Thanksgiving (in the US). Of course, July/August would work just as well. A November/December release is begging for trouble since the top teams (and even non-top Mythic teams [and even everyone else]) will want to play during the holiday season, which is a bad thing forcing people to choose between their entertainment and their F&F.

Just to give an idea of previous releases, LK and Cata released in November and December (respectively), and they likely weren't really thinking about stuff like the above. WoD also released in November, but WoD was such a shitshow as well with the transition. If their new philosophy is to not force people to do progression (even in a PATCH to prep for the next raid) during the holidays, there's a very, very, VERY low chance of a Q4 release (early October at the ABSOLUTE latest) since there would be way too much stuff for the top players to do and they would absolutely be forced to choose. We also know for a fact (unless it gets delayed at this point) that Shadowlands is releasing in 2020, as per the official website for it.

TL;DR: Based on their philosophy of not wanting people to be forced into prog (even for pre-raid) during the holidays, Early October 2020 release at the absolute latest (I give that a ~2% chance), with an almost guaranteed (~98% chance) of a Q3 2020 release, closer to the middle of Q3 (August seems most likely).

"A delayed game is eventually good. A rushed game is forever bad." -Shigeru Miyamoto

Also Miyamoto: "No, redo Paper Mario Sticker Star because it's too much like The Thousand Year Door"
*is delayed and redone* [Miyamoto]: "Now it's fucking boring" [Devs]: 'Well it's too late cuz we already shipped it'

[Zyky]

Am I missing something? How does seasonal cadence branding work with a prediction of "no shadowlands until november-december?"

6 month final tiers are not realisitic. Players want to clear the raid and obtain mounts for their guild for all the hard work everyone put in. Even Antorus was too short for a lot of guilds. You need a solid 7-8 month tier followed by a 4-6 week pre-patch. The reality is the expansion will not be out in August, it will not be out in September. They'll wait until after Blizzcon to release it, that way the first raid won't cause an issue with the holiday season. Expansion will launch late November/early December with the first tier coming out 2nd or 3rd Tuesday in January 2021.

[Nosgoth]

I honestly don't even get what you are talking about. Can someone explain it to me like I'm 5?

[Zyky]

I honestly don't even get what you are talking about. Can someone explain it to me like I'm 5?

Basically he's saying why can't final raid tiers be shorter since we have M+ seasons.

[TwoMana]

Am I missing something? How does seasonal cadence branding work with a prediction of "no shadowlands until november-december?"

I guess you missed the pre-patch even and timing. So even if season 4 starts in January and ends in July as it should, the announced pre-patch event will carry us to "end of summer" (late September) release of the expac.

[ro9ue]

Did they confirm if we're getting an 8.3.5 or not? I don't think there's enough content in 8.3 to last 9 months (assuming it drops in January and we get the new expansion in September).

[sam86]

You don't 'raid a month later' after a patch. 2 weeks and both normal and hc open up after the patch.
It's not a BfA thing either. Expacs before done the same.

If u mean by 'exp' Legion it was hated back then too
U talk like everyone was happy with patch introduction of 'raid' yet no raid on sight, we hated that in legion and we hated that in bfa
BFA just kept all the sh8t ppl hated from older exps and since it didn't have amazing new system the hate exploded
I still remember the massive hate in MoP when they - for first time ever - decided to introduce major patches without any raid attached to it, i don't recall anyone liked it yet we swallowed it, guess what now
we get selfie patches ...

[TwoMana]

Did they confirm if we're getting an 8.3.5 or not? I don't think there's enough content in 8.3 to last 9 months (assuming it drops in January and we get the new expansion in September).

It needs to last 6 months, like other seasons. The rest of the time will be covered by the pre-patch event.

[Zyky]

It needs to last 6 months, like other seasons. The rest of the time will be covered by the pre-patch event.

Why are people coming up with fictitious numbers? No two seasons have lasted the same amount of time. No final tier will be 6 months long(especially one that's longer than any raid this expansion has currently had). People need to wake up to the reality that if Blizzard rushes Shadowlands because of casual crybabies wanting shorter raids then we're going to have another BFA situation with an unfinished, unpolished, shit story expansion in Shadowlands(especially because they had VERY LITTLE to actually show at Blizzcon). If you want a good expansion, Ny'alotha should last 8 months with prepatch after those months Making a release ~November.

[ping-pong]

If I wasted 20mins per day speculating about this, and generally thinking of different things i dont like about wow, my life would go from perfect 10 to mediocre 7. Just because of all the negativity that puts your mind through, which further affects your daily life. Who gives a f... how long a season in wow lasts? Really? Play the damn game. If bored then do something else. If not bored then play. Very simple algorithm.

[Nosgoth]

Basically he's saying why can't final raid tiers be shorter since we have M+ seasons.

Well I think Blizzard wants that, it's just a matter of not being able to do it, cause expansions require so much work to finish, it doesn't allow them to release them that fast.