California could get wetter this century

[Rasulis]

Back in 2017, at our firm we were discussing a model by scientists at the University of Irvine which predicts that California will get an average of 12 percent more precipitation through the end of this century, compared to the last 20 years of last century. The model also shows that the winter months of December, January and February, when California traditionally gets the bulk of its precipitation, would account for much of the overall increase in precipitation. During those three months, precipitation levels would increase 31.6 percent in northern California, 39.2 percent in central California and 10.6 percent in southern California.

The study found that warming in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, an area about 2,500 miles east of the international date line, is the main reason for the predicted increase in precipitation levels. The warming sea surface temperatures encourage a southeastward shift of the jet stream, which helps steer more rain-producing mid-latitude cyclones toward California. The mechanism is similar to what we in California experience during an El Nino year.

The study is linked below.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms16055

Back then we thought the conclusion of the study was funny and the scientists were bonkers. Fast forward 3 years, and California has had four successive wet years. Last rainy season lasted well into May. I went to SF for my nephew's graduation in late May, and saw fields in Central Valley under water. In May mind you. This rainy season, at my place we already had over 10 inches of precipitation. Here is a picture from my hike up Mount Laguna on November 22nd. I guess we can't say "it never rains in Southern California" anymore.

[Dwarfhamster]

Longer, hotter summers; shorter, warmer winters. That’s a bad combo. California depends a lot on snowpack in the mountains to the east for water through the year, but warmer winters mean more rain but not necessarily snow.

And more rain also means more flooding and mudslides, especially after fires due to the hot summers.

[Kaleredar]

Longer, hotter summers; shorter, warmer winters. That’s a bad combo. California depends a lot on snowpack in the mountains to the east for water through the year, but warmer winters mean more rain but not necessarily snow.

And more rain also means more flooding and mudslides, especiallafged fires due to the hot summers.

Precisely this. California needs its snowpack to get it through dry months. More rainy, but ultimately frontloaded and warmer, weather will not carry it through the summer months.

I'd be interested to see how much less snow California is estimated to get due to climate change, rather than the measly "12% more rainfall" it's to receive.

[Rasulis]

Precisely this. California needs its snowpack to get it through dry months. More rainy, but ultimately frontloaded and warmer, weather will not carry it through the summer months.

I'd be interested to see how much less snow California is estimated to get due to climate change, rather than the measly "12% more rainfall" it's to receive.

Last winter, the snowpack in the Sierra was at 100% above normal in January, 2019. Big Bear was open all the way through July 4. Although the snow was pretty slushy and not great for skiing. People went up there mostly for the novelty of having snow on July 4.

As of December 2 of this year, the entire state (Northern/Central/Southern Sierra and Trinity) is at 88% of normal.

Here is the daily reservoir storage readings as of December 3.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=res

[GreenJesus]

Its called El Nino. Look it up. And if california gets more rain then thata good for us. We need it. Thank you climate change.

[zenkai]

Awesome, does this mean some of the cities will steal less water from farmers? Well that's one positive thing about climate change lol

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Its called El Nino. Look it up. And if california gets more rain then thata good for us. We need it. Thank you climate change.

Ah yeah I forget about El Niño, it did run the last 2 years didn't it?

[Rasulis]

BTW, California GW is also rebounding. Here is the USGS site for GW data for California.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ca/nwis/gw/

Here is historical data for a well located in Fresno County in Central Valley generated from using the webtools available at the site above. FYI, we have a 700-foot well drilled into fractured granitic bedrock. The water level in the well has risen by more than 50 feet since 2016.



Here is a view of the hills around our house from the driveway from November 30. The house is at about elevation +4,200, so the snow was down to elevation +4,500 there about.



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Awesome, does this mean some of the cities will steal less water from farmers? Well that's one positive thing about climate change lol

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Ah yeah I forget about El Niño, it did run the last 2 years didn't it?

Three so far. If this rainy season continues the way it is going, that would make four. That was exactly the conclusion of the 2017 study - in the next 100 years California will be looking at a much higher frequency of El Niño like events than the last 20 years. The model used in the study predicts that El Niño will be the norm in California.

Here is Mammoth on July 4, 2019.

[PC2]

We'll adapt to the 10% increased precipitation. Snow is nice but it's not reliable so ultimately we'll want to find more reliable alternatives.

[Dwarfhamster]

Last winter, the snowpack in the Sierra was at 100% above normal in January, 2019. Big Bear was open all the way through July 4. Although the snow was pretty slushy and not great for skiing. People went up there mostly for the novelty of having snow on July 4.

As of December 2 of this year, the entire state (Northern/Central/Southern Sierra and Trinity) is at 88% of normal.

Here is the daily reservoir storage readings as of December 3.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=res

And before that, the state went through several years of drought. The unreliability of enough snow pack will be a challenge.

[Wyrt]

Awesome, does this mean some of the cities will steal less water from farmers? Well that's one positive thing about climate change lol

Um, what? The vast majority of water in the state is from the northern part(Sacramento and north) while most of the farmers are south of Sacramento. No one is "stealing" the farmer's water since it wasn't their water to begin with.

[Theodarzna]

Not really a good thing. Others have already pointed out that snowpack is big for getting what is otherwise a desert through the bleak summers.

[ohtlmtlm]

We'll adapt to the 10% increased precipitation. Snow is nice but it's not reliable so ultimately we'll want to find more reliable alternatives.

alternatives to a previous seasonally-replenished block of ice on top of a mountain that predictably melts every Summer through Fall?

Collect and store hundreds of millions of gallons of rain water?

[Shadowferal]

alternatives to a previous seasonally-replenished block of ice on top of a mountain that predictably melts every Summer through Fall?
Collect and store hundreds of billions of gallons of rain water?

Now now, that's the way he always is...says all kinds of shit without any facts, ideas, planning...Just the same ""We'll figure it out...(someday) So everything will be all good."

[PC2]

alternatives to a previous seasonally-replenished block of ice on top of a mountain that predictably melts every Summer through Fall?

Collect and store hundreds of millions of gallons of rain water?

We'll do whatever it takes to grow more food and have more fresh water. Even if that means desalination or improving the reservoir system. Where there's a will there's a way.

Now now, that's the way he always is...says all kinds of shit without any facts, ideas, planning...Just the same ""We'll figure it out...(someday) So everything will be all good."

I can't guarantee that we'll solve our problems, but yeah I'm pretty optimistic that these issues are solveable given the right infrastructure and scientific knowledge.

[Shadowferal]

Yeah, but you never show any scientific knowledge. Just a sad belief that borders on the religious.

[breadisfunny]

We'll adapt to the 10% increased precipitation. Snow is nice but it's not reliable so ultimately we'll want to find more reliable alternatives.

this is your response to everything. "we'll find alternatives and be ok. no need to worry."

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We'll do whatever it takes to grow more food and have more fresh water. Even if that means desalination or improving the reservoir system. Where there's a will there's a way.



I can't guarantee that we'll solve our problems, but yeah I'm pretty optimistic that these issues are solveable given the right infrastructure and scientific knowledge.

basically making excuses for not doing anything about it in the present.

[Shadowferal]

That's him.
"Now" doesn't exist. It's always "later."

[PC2]

Um, what? The vast majority of water in the state is from the northern part(Sacramento and north) while most of the farmers are south of Sacramento. No one is "stealing" the farmer's water since it wasn't their water to begin with.

Actually I think Zenkai is or at least was right. My cousin runs a shelling/hulling company and he said they were trying to go after the growers water during the drought. I think it was for walnuts or almond fields. Anyways it ended up being the case that they didn't have the legal right to take the water.

[GreenJesus]

Farmers in california got fucked because of a stupid fucking little fish that no one cares about.

[PC2]

Farmers in california got fucked because of a stupid fucking little fish that no one cares about.

Right IIRC they have to have some minimum of water flow for the fish but a lot of that water ends up wasted or going to the ocean.