California could get wetter this century

[PACOX]

Floridaman is moving to California once FL is underwater.

[XDurionX]

In Germany, we have Wetter all the time.

I'll see msyelf out.

[Rasulis]

And before that, the state went through several years of drought. The unreliability of enough snow pack will be a challenge.

It is not as random as you described it. California precipitation is heavily influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). During positive PDO when the waters off the West Coast are warm, they heat and moisten air overhead. The winds blow the ocean air inland and it rains and snows over the cooler lands, particularly over the mountains. When the ocean is cool, the overhead air is cooler and drier, less moisture make its way inland.



This is a 50-to-60-year weather pattern. The PDO used to be positive, keeping the waters relatively warm from 1976 to 1999 which was a period of above normal precipitation for California. Since then, the waters have been cooler (negative PDO period) which means the ocean airs bring very little moisture inland. Hence, California had an extended period of lower than normal precipitation, punctuated by a 5 year drought (2012 – 2016).

Currently California is entering a positive PDO period where the coastal water temperature is warming up, reinforced by the warming in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures.

The 12% increase in precipitation is average through California and over the entire year. If we are only looking at the winter months of December, January and February when the Sierra snowpack receives the bulk of replenishment, the model indicates an increase in precipitation ranging from 30% to 40% in the Sierra. Which is why the 2017-2018 snowpack was at 90% above normal and the 2018-2019 snowpack was over 100% above normal. We'll have to see if the pattern hold through the 2019-2020 wet season.

[Wyrt]

Farmers in california got fucked because of a stupid fucking little fish that no one cares about.

Right, we should just let animals go extinct so dumbass farmers can keep planting crops that require shit tons of water like almonds.

[Rasulis]

Right, we should just let animals go extinct so dumbass farmers can keep planting crops that require shit tons of water like almonds.

Every time somebody complained about California farmers, water and little fishies, I like to bring up this graphic.

[Ghostpanther]

Floridaman is moving to California once FL is underwater.

He will die of old age before that happens.

Anyway, I hope for the best for California, but I have this feeling, much worse than droughts, wet seasons and fires is coming to that state.

[Katchii]

Its called El Nino. Look it up. And if california gets more rain then thata good for us. We need it. Thank you climate change.

It's really not good, depending on how often it rains. The reason we have so many and such bad fires is because of the sporadic rains. Rain causes flurries of growth, followed by a lengthy dry/ drier season which causes the new growth to just wither, dry up and die creating an abundance of kindling to catch fire and spread. The fires take out the vegetation that makes the areas resistant to erosion, so after the fires, the areas are now incredibly susceptible to erosion and mudslides in the next rainy season.

Yes, we need more rain, but unless it's going to be coming regularly enough to sustain whatever wild growth we get as a result of them, it actually causes just as much harm as good.

California is also historically bad at actually capturing rain water for prolonged usage, so more rain won't really fix the water problem. Help yes, fix no.

Until California fixes the infrastructure to be more efficient at catching and storing rain water, more rain really doesn't do much to fix anything.

[Rasulis]

It's really not good, depending on how often it rains. The reason we have so many and such bad fires is because of the sporadic rains. Rain causes flurries of growth, followed by a lengthy dry/ drier season which causes the new growth to just wither, dry up and die creating an abundance of kindling to catch fire and spread. The fires take out the vegetation that makes the areas resistant to erosion, so after the fires, the areas are now incredibly susceptible to erosion and mudslides in the next rainy season.

Yes, we need more rain, but unless it's going to be coming regularly enough to sustain whatever wild growth we get as a result of them, it actually causes just as much harm as good.

California is also historically bad at actually capturing rain water for prolonged usage, so more rain won't really fix the water problem. Help yes, fix no.

Until California fixes the infrastructure to be more efficient at catching and storing rain water, more rain really doesn't do much to fix anything.

According to CALFIRE, the rains had done a lot to suppress the 2019 wildfire season. Here are some statistics.

2019 Combined CALFIRE and US Forest Service: 6,872 fires/253,321 acres.
2018 Combined CALFIRE and US Forest Service: 7,571 fires/1,671,203 acres.
2017 Combined CALFIRE and US Forest Service: 9,133 fires/1,248,606 acres.
2016 Combined CALFIRE and US Forest Service: 6,954 fires/669,534 acres.
2015 Combined CALFIRE and US Forest Service: 8,283 fires/880,899 acres.
2014 Combined CALFIRE and US Forest Service: 7,233 fires/ 625,540 acres.

According to CALFIRE, 2019 represents the first marked drop in acreage burned and property damage in the last 10 years. Keep in mind that we are still recovering from 17 years of below normal precipitation ending with 5 successive years of drought (2011 - 2016). No one want to stick his neck out, but if the weather pattern persists, CA can expect less severe wildfire seasons that the last 10 years.

I know the Irvine model goes against all the other models. Time will prove which model is more accurate.

[smityx]

Its called El Nino. Look it up. And if california gets more rain then thata good for us. We need it. Thank you climate change.

Would that be La Niña if you're looking for more rain. El Nino usually mean dryer conditions for the pacific area.

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According to CALFIRE, the rains had done a lot to suppress the 2019 wildfire season. Here are some statistics.

2019 Combined CALFIRE and US Forest Service: 6,872 fires/253,321 acres.
2018 Combined CALFIRE and US Forest Service: 7,571 fires/1,671,203 acres.
2017 Combined CALFIRE and US Forest Service: 9,133 fires/1,248,606 acres.
2016 Combined CALFIRE and US Forest Service: 6,954 fires/669,534 acres.
2015 Combined CALFIRE and US Forest Service: 8,283 fires/880,899 acres.
2014 Combined CALFIRE and US Forest Service: 7,233 fires/ 625,540 acres.

According to CALFIRE, 2019 represents the first marked drop in acreage burned and property damage in the last 10 years. Keep in mind that we are still recovering from 17 years of below normal precipitation ending with 5 successive years of drought (2011 - 2016). No one want to stick his neck out, but if the weather pattern persists, CA can expect less severe wildfire seasons that the last 10 years.

I know the Irvine model goes against all the other models. Time will prove which model is more accurate.

Maybe they've been raking their forests more the last couple of years. /s

[GreenJesus]

Every time somebody complained about California farmers, water and little fishies, I like to bring up this graphic.

What does this have to do with anything? All it proves is how important farming is to our state. And 2018 was after the drought was over anyway I think.

[Rasulis]

What does this have to do with anything? All it proves is how important farming is to our state. And 2018 was after the drought was over anyway I think.

California went through a period of lower than normal precipitation starting in 1999, capped with 5-year drought (2012 - 2016). Here is the agriculture cash receipt for California from 2011 - 2018.

2011 - 43.217b
2012 - 46.954b
2103 - 51.598b
2014 - 56.930b
2015 - 49,198b This has more to do with commodity price than the drought. Google Commodity crash 2015 - 2016 if you are that curious.
2016 - 47,528b
2017 - 49,585b
2018 - 49,866b The last two numbers would have been higher by about 10 - 20% if it wasn't for the trade war.

Overall, CA agriculture managed to adapt to the drought. The almond acreage had more than doubled, yet the water usage remained at the same level. In fact California now control 80% of the global almond supply. Also, the only place, other than Spain, where Marcona almonds are grown in quantity.

[GreenJesus]

California went through a period of lower than normal precipitation starting in 1999, capped with 5-year drought (2012 - 2016). Here is the agriculture cash receipt for California from 2011 - 2018.

2011 - 43.217b
2012 - 46.954b
2103 - 51.598b
2014 - 56.930b
2015 - 49,198b This has more to do with commodity price than the drought. Google Commodity crash 2015 - 2016 if you are that curious.
2016 - 47,528b
2017 - 49,585b
2018 - 49,866b The last two numbers would have been higher by about 10 - 20% if it wasn't for the trade war.

Overall, CA agriculture managed to adapt to the drought. The almond acreage had more than doubled, yet the water usage remained at the same level. In fact California now control 80% of the global almond supply. Also, the only place, other than Spain, where Marcona almonds are grown in quantity.

Did you drive through the grape vine area and see entire orchards completely dried up and dead / cut down for miles and miles (maybe two hours north of LA)? With signs of angry farmers unable to water their crop? California is a big state. The water issue didnt affect the entire state. Where the effects were felt was devastating for them. But go ahead and say their problem didnt matter because they dont live in downtown area. A bunch of redneck losers right? Who cares about them?

[Shadowferal]

The insurance industry is trying to get completely out of the state.
And the Governor told them "nope. Not for a year at least."

[Rasulis]

Did you drive through the grape vine area and see entire orchards completely dried up and dead / cut down for miles and miles (maybe two hours north of LA)? With signs of angry farmers unable to water their crop? California is a big state. The water issue didnt affect the entire state. Where the effects were felt was devastating for them. But go ahead and say their problem didnt matter because they dont live in downtown area. A bunch of redneck losers right? Who cares about them?

I am familiar with the Grapevine.

I do recall those signs. At one time they were ubiquitous. It felt like there was one at every mile markers. Not so much these days. The ones that are still there appear to be forgotten relics of the past. If the model is correct, in time I expect that we will see less and less of those signs.

As for grapes, the wine varietals require the least amount of water. Many Napa and Sonoma wineries employ “dry farming” technique which does not require any irrigation. In Central Valley the farmers grow table grapes and sweet grapes which do require some modicum of irrigation. However, those dead vines had little to do with the drought, but rather farmers replacing them with higher grossing and less labor intensive crops. If you have been back lately, you'll see rows and rows of almond and fruit trees where those vines used to grow.

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Would that be La Niña if you're looking for more rain. El Nino usually mean dryer conditions for the pacific area.

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Maybe they've been raking their forests more the last couple of years. /s

I do find it funny that State of California gets all the blame for the wildfire when historically the vast majority of the western region wildfire acreage occurred in Federal land.



Also, I pity poor Alaska. This year their wildfire acreage was over 1 million acres (4 times that of California) and the state barely made it into the news. In 2015, it was 5.1 million acres. Yes, 5.1 million acres. Yet, most people probably never even heard of that.