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  1. #61
    In what I'm sure is totally unrelated news -- the price of oil shot up to its highest since September because of said attack.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/o...UY5K1gFnGyaxTo
    “You're not to be so blind with patriotism that you can't face reality. Wrong is wrong, no matter who does it or says it.”― Malcolm X

  2. #62
    Man. Conflicted feelings on this one. There is a lot of angles to this.

    First, for anyone who has followed the war in Iraq since the beginning the death of Sulemain is an unambiguously good moment. The Quuds Force / IRGC ran a terrorist campaign during the US Peacekeeping mission (and after) that killed hundreds and maimed thousands of US troops and countless more Iraqis. They did it as a part of their secret war for influence in the region, against the United States. Many US commanders have wanted this man dead for years, and many are undoubtedly celebrating. His spot in hell is well deserved.

    It robs Iran of it's most important military leader and one of its more likely candidates to be the next Supreme Leader when Khameni dies in the next decade. This will genuinely hurt Iran as it robs them of a lifetime of experience, connections and institutional knowledge they'll find very hard to replace. Iran is not like Western Countries where senior commanders have an "up or out" policy. Sulemain was genuinely irreplaceable in the near term.

    The US probably should have responded after Iran shot down our drone in international airspace. But the US absolutely had to respond when an Iranian backed militia stormed out embassy in Iraq. That is the one rule of international relations that is not to be broken, but Iran has never felt bound by it. In responding this way, the US has shown that there will be severe consequences for such an audacious action. I think it is calibrated perfectly because it makes the US look very strong in the region again.

    Why? Because the US did this within 48 hours. Which means intelligence on Sulemain's movements was excellent and near-real time. Which means no one is safe who opposes the US in the region.

    That is all the guininely good side of things. After what Iranian backed militias did though, the US simply had to respond in a decisive way and this is a good way for doing it.

    So other angles of it. Does this draw us closer to war with Iran? Absolutely. The US just took out a national hero. And Iran will likely retaliate by going after a senior US figure in the region (military or diplomat) or that of an ally (probably Saudi Arabia). That could easily lead to a spiraling situation, particularly if it is an American. A lot of it is up to Iran. If they want to even the score but not escalate, they'll go after someone among the Saudis. But if they want to escalate, they'll target American interests (and Americans) in the region.

    Is war likely to happen with Iran? I still say no. We're still very far away from that. The US isn't remotely positioned for it. Senior US commanders absolutely don't want it. Trump would NEVER get an AUMF for it (not in a million years), which means he's limited to a very narrow conflict and would rapidly exhaust funds, which would make it unworkable. The US military laser focused on China and to a lesser degree Russia, and Iran remains a distraction.

    But the fact we're talking about this just shows how fucking terrible US foreign policy towards Iran has been since 2001. We should have seized on rapprochement with them after 9/11. We never should have declared them part of the non-existent Axis of Evil. We never should have pretended their nuclear program was more sophisticated than US intelligence clearly said it was. The Iranian nuclear deal NEVER should have ignored ballistic missiles (and Obama wanted it too much). Trump leaving it and then starting the maximum pressure campaign without anything resembling a strategy is another historically dump geopolitical move.

    For those thinking that our idiot President is doing a "wag the dog thing", no. Not this time. Iran threw a major punch with that Embassy sacking, and they needed to be hit back hard, and in fact, the US should hit back several more times just to remind them (and everyone else) how things work on this planet when regional mischiefmakers try and attack the most powerful country on Earth. It should consider launching missile attacks on any offshore installations in the Persian Gulf owned by Iran and making clear that any Iranian ship that even appears threatening to US ships will be attacked.

    This was absolutely necessary and it's an important lesson on why country's cannot be passive.

    But this won't save Trump. If anything, it gives Nancy Pelosi leverage to delay even more. People's opinions on Trump are never going to change over a foreign policy issue. Their opinions are fixed. There will never be a "rally around the President" moment. So don't see something there that isn't.

    The US has spent years turning the other cheek with Iran. The Embassy sacking was too far, and now that message has been sent. The US is long overdue in reminding the rest of the world that we're not their punching bag and they can't get away with outrages actions against us without expecting a brutal, costly response. That's something China and Russia need to learn too. And hopefully they get the messages.

    We just took something very valuable from Iran that they'll find very hard to replace anytime soon. Good for the US. But we need to be careful about escalation and be looking at off ramps to issue them. Because you can't deter Iran. Not like you can Russia or China. They are ready to pay extreme costs (far higher than Russia or China, against whom deterrence works). You can only come to a kind of mutual understanding that the bill has been paid in full.

    Trump, being the moron that he is, thinks this will probably help save his skin. He's sorely mistaken, and just has assumed an extraordinary risk. Killing the leader of ISIS didn't prevent him from getting impeached, and killing this dude won't prevent him from being dragged in front of the Senate to answer for his considerable crimes.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by ringpriest View Post
    Going to quote myself from last September:

    Looks like Trump got his marching orders from Putin, and is now proceeding to do his best to wreck the US militarily, diplomatically, and financially.
    Agreed. The only winner of a US/Iranian conflict is China and Russia.

    Which is exactly why Trump is so keen on it.

    It, along with escalation of against North Korea (which is an even more complicated problem) is the the single stupidest geopolitical move the US could do. #1.

    We go to war against Iran, kiss US Superpower status goodbye. We lost approximately half our lead relative to China in Iraq and Afghanistan forever war/failures. We'll zero it (and push into deficit) if we plow years and another $1.5 trillion into some boondoggle in Iran that will end terribly for us.

    We should be trying to create fissures between the Iranian regime and its people. Instead, all we do is find new ways to drive them together.
    Last edited by Skroe; 2020-01-03 at 05:50 AM.

  3. #63
    I am Murloc! Milchshake's Avatar
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    Considering Trump's basis of action on foreign policy is basically taking the advice of the last foreign despot to talk to him. Putin on Ukraine, Erdogan on Syria.

    I wonder if the Saudi king had any influence on this action. The guy loves assassinations.


    I support a full and transparent investigation.

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  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by i9erek View Post
    Lol, we can surely nuke non-nuclearly armed enemies with safety. You nuke America and it's doomsday for you. Who wanna go to nuclear war with America just to "avenge" Iran? Only an idiot would think like that. You nuke a piece of shit country like Iran and cockroaches fall in line and know their place.
    [Infraction]
    It is against US policy to utilize nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states.

    It would also destroy what little moral authority the US has left.

    The US will never do that. Even if North Korea lobbed a nuclear weapon at the US and due to shitty guidance systems, it hits some open field in Oregon and kills only some birds and critters, the US would respond with a massive but conventional attack.

    The US would only ever use nuclear weapons against Russia. Even China is doubtful.

  5. #65
    I am Murloc! Milchshake's Avatar
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    Also, a reminder for people to young to remember 2012.



    And remember who sent troops to the MExican border right before the 2018 elections.

    *Warps in Pepperridge Farm cookies*
    May the memory of Greymane keep us safe in these dark times.
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  6. #66
    Going to add this too:



    I don't think it's going to work out well for him this time though. The USA is generally quite war-fatigued...
    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
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    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold.

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    The USA has zero moral authority whatsoever. It has committed many atrocities that are only rivaled by freaking Hitler.

    This attack is another example of why the world would be a better place without the USA.
    The US has moral authority. Far less than it had a few years ago, which itself was rebuilt after the Iraq War demolished it. But we have some. And we'll rebuild it in the future.

    As for the rest of the nonsense you posted, we only build the modern international system / liberal international order, so of course you, a privileged European wannabe-communist, detest it. Let this be a reminder to someone like you, an enemy of America, that your heroes are never safe, and that the little things you consider victories here and there are illusions... really, the US is exercising restraint. And now that we're not, this is what it does: kill one of the most high value targets in the world, a general in an adversary nation, within two days of his latest outrage.

    Your side is hopelessly over matched. You'll never win. You're doomed, you see, to see things like this the rest of your life.

    Defeat.
    After.
    Defeat.

    Now that being said, hopefully, this is the end of it, because a peaceful outcome is always preferrible and it's our deep foolishness and recklessness that let it get to this point. There has never been a comprehensive dialog with Iran, the US and the Saudis to establish a regional order that all three are mutual stakeholders of, and there should have been many, many years ago. And we've had leverage on both sides to force there to be one. We've never used it.

    Hopefully the good that comes from this is that taking Sulemain off the map opens the door to a peaceful resolution. But I have my doubts.

  8. #68
    I am Murloc! Milchshake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    I don't think it's going to work out well for him this time though. The USA is generally quite war-fatigued...
    Doesnt matter, it will keep his base excited. All he needs is their votes plus more voter purges of "others" and he's fine.

    Also, up until a few weeks ago, the Beltway was postulating that Bolton or "Maddog" Mattis might turn evidence on Trump's corruption.

    Trump's adventuring in Iran will probably keep them quiet.
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  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by Milchshake View Post
    Doesnt matter, it will keep his base excited. All he needs is their votes plus more voter purges of "others" and he's fine.

    Also, up until a few weeks ago, the Beltway was postulating that Bolton or "Maddog" Mattis might turn evidence on Trump's corruption.

    Trump's adventuring in Iran will probably keep them quiet.
    Nonsense. The base is perpetually excited. That's just a silly "fear".

    They were ALWAYS going to turn out in huge numbers in 2020. They turned out in big numbers in 2018 too! It just so happens more people who hated Trump turned out.

    The most important thing Democrats can do to beat trump is figure ways to get as many people to turn out in November as possible. If they do that, they'll win big. Don't be overly concerned with the Trumpahdi base. He was always going to engage in some base-stirring mischief later in the year anyway, and how does one makes zealots even more zealoty anyway?

    let the get fired up, for all the good it'll do them.

  10. #70
    It's not even about politics right now, this is one of the most dangerous points in time in recent memory. The whole world is watching. Skroe is right, one miscalculation and there's no turning back. Iran has a history of retaliating however it needs to and they are not shy about it. I was surprised Trump had the restraint to not hit back after we lost a Triton, but this needed to happen, at what cost? We'll see.
    Last edited by BronzeCondor; 2020-01-03 at 06:11 AM.

  11. #71
    Bernie Sanders being Bernie, again.

    I honestly wish he'd become US President just to see him sign away documents that are clearly and explicitly designed as anti-Iran, anti-Russian and anti-Chinese measures.

  12. #72
    I am Murloc! Milchshake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    Nonsense. The base is perpetually excited. That's just a silly "fear".

    They were ALWAYS going to turn out in huge numbers in 2020. They turned out in big numbers in 2018 too! It just so happens more people who hated Trump turned out.

    The most important thing Democrats can do to beat trump is figure ways to get as many people to turn out in November as possible. If they do that, they'll win big. Don't be overly concerned with the Trumpahdi base. He was always going to engage in some base-stirring mischief later in the year anyway, and how does one makes zealots even more zealoty anyway?

    let the get fired up, for all the good it'll do them.
    Sorry, but only a foolish person under estimates zealots.

    Plus with Conservatives about to purge another 200,000 Wisconsin voters. All they need to do is get this case in front a friendly judge. A zealot Judge maybe?

    Your pet project looks for naught.
    Welcome to GEN-OT, have a seat, we'll introduce you to the 23-year-old who will lecture you about how Democrats didn't try hard enough to improve the ACA, and once that's all set up you'll be assigned a socialist who supported Ron Paul up to 2015 to harass you forever.
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  13. #73
    As usual, Skroe, you're a bit too neoconservative "global American hegemony." It's never in American interests, imo, to be in direct conflict in the Middle East.

    I think it's important to note this dude was on Iraqi soil. There's already authorization for U.S. troops to be in Iraq, and the dude was obviously coordinating attacks on Iraq/U.S. interests in Iraq. So I guess you can justify that there was a reason for use of force in this situation without informing Congress, since Iraq operations are already authorized.

    That being said, this guy was part of Iranian political hierarchy. That makes it an assassination by any UN definition, and against our own standing Executive Order against assassination. That is, by far, a big escalation that I don't think was very justified. Political assassination has a tendency to start wars.

    If oil prices continue to escalate, China will need to step in, on Iran's side. And then we'll need to step in on the other side, whatever that is, probably Saudi Arabia. And then we're fighting a proxy war in the Middle East. You could argue we've already been doing that for awhile, but now China will have a reason to step in as well.

    It's interesting to figure out Russia's role in this. Obviously Russia has ostensibly backed Iran in the past, but Putin has also been pushing Trump's buttons behind the scenes as well. If Russia and China make a play together - ruh roh.

  14. #74
    I see no issue with mercing Soleimani, the guy had a lot of blood on his hands and the attack on the embassy required a response.

    This sort of reminds me of the airstrikes on Libya Reagan launched in 1986. A measured response that avoided destroying an entire country like the US did in Iraq.

    I'll be more inclined to support the US as it distances itself from Erdogan and Turkey. There have been promising signs recently regarding some focus shifting from Turkey to Greece and other nations, and the US supporting the joint Greek/Cypriot/Israeli energy alliance, but I'm not gonna hold my breath just yet.
    No ideology has been more murderous or detrimental to human dignity than Communism
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    Oh my...

  15. #75
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    Day 2 of 2020 and world war 3 is fucking trending. Convict the orange fucktard already and get us a new fucking sensible leader (not pence).

    Quote Originally Posted by Uggorthaholy View Post
    Thanks but no thanks, Lora, for making me question everything in existence forever.

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by Stelio Kontos View Post
    I'll be more inclined to support the US as it distances itself from Erdogan and Turkey. There have been promising signs recently regarding some focus shifting from Turkey to Greece and other nations, and the US supporting the joint Greek/Cypriot/Israeli energy alliance, but I'm not gonna hold my breath just yet.
    Off-topic but US will never drop Turkey, even if it should. Hell, if Turkey and Greece have yet another war which is more likely to happen than not, I expect US to simply sit it out.

  17. #77
    Oh one more thing.

    This is just a friendly reminder that, because evidently the almighty is still looking out for us or something, the US has had an obscenely lucky streak and not had any truly big international crises since 2016 that would require deft leadership by this White House (and I don't just mean Trump, I mean everyone inside the White House). We've had little crisises they've gotten lucky on, or blew but the consequences weren't big. But we've had no real showstoppers. No financial crisis. No Russia invading a country. No Pakistani-Indian nuclear standoff. It's been, historically speaking, pretty tame stuff.

    So the consequences for the Trumphadi's having trolled America with their completely out of his league, conspiracy theorist, genuine stupid person President, so far, has been relatively low. The "risk" has been largely theoretical and in terms of national integrity. The worst effects of the Trump administration have been borne by vulnerable people. But to this date, it is not too far to say that if a Democrat gets elected in 2020, the Trump presidency could just be a strange historical detour with few long term consequences to the geopolitical order.

    That's the glass-half-full side of things.

    Here's the glass-half-empty: every day, we're getting one day closer to when the Trumphadi troll upon America with their meme President isn't "funny" anymore. When the White House will half to take decisive, smart action and show real leadership, and will be shown to be utterly incapable of it. And then the real disaster will unfold because it will be Donald Trump in the White House, surrounded by unqualified sycophants, who listen to grifters like Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson on Fox News to get ratings and grift the elderly and the country bumpkins. That's when the consequences move from the relatively low, to the meaningful.

    Is this the crisis that ends America's lucky streak? Could be. Might not. Hard to say. But that day is coming. It might be this. It might be when Russia tried to invade Estonia or annex Belarus. It might be when China tries it's own analog of "the Invasion of Panama" somewhere in East Asia in order to test-drive their new modern military (which is coming). It might be a major terrorist attack, a natural disaster, a war between two other countries, or a financial crisis. Who knows.

    But the day is coming.

    Donald Trump should never have been President and incidents like this just illustrate that we've been damn lucky that he hasn't been a position thus far to fuck up something so completely that it turns US security inside out and gets a lot of people killed.

    And hopefully, this isn't the one.

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by Voidwielder View Post
    Off-topic but US will never drop Turkey, even if it should. Hell, if Turkey and Greece have yet another war which is more likely to happen than not, I expect US to simply sit it out.
    Yeah, I still think at this point the US would support Turkey even if their tanks rolled deeper into the Balkans, or they started illegally occupying Aegean islands. But the relations with Turkey are worse than they've been in decades, so there's a glimmer of hope we wouldn't be thrown into the furnace by the Turks.

    I should clarify, I'm given optimism seeing how the US military seems to be souring on the Turks. The administration, however, green-lit them to go in and ethnically cleanse the West's Kurdish allies.
    Last edited by Stelio Kontos; 2020-01-03 at 06:24 AM.
    No ideology has been more murderous or detrimental to human dignity than Communism
    Quote Originally Posted by kidkilla View Post
    The Ottomans brought civilization to Greece.
    Oh my...

  19. #79
    Why is Orange Man bad again? Because he killed a guy who killed hundreds of US citizens and wanted to kill more ? Reminds me when they were crying about death of ISIS leader.
    "Our nation must condemn racism, bigotry and white supremacy."
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  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by Cizr View Post
    Why is Orange Man bad again? Because he killed a guy who killed hundreds of US citizens and wanted to kill more ? Reminds me when they were crying about death of ISIS leader.
    Yeah, why don't we just assassinate every world leader we don't like!? Clearly that will never ever have negative repercussions on the US.

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