1. #20081
    Scarab Lord PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    I estimate there are about 30 million in the US that are 70+, and since we need about 2/3 to be infected to stop the pandemic due to herd immunity that would mean about 1 million deaths in that age group, and a bit more that 200 k below 70.
    The 70+ bracket in the US is about 10.9% of the population, which is 36 million. And if we're going to use the CDC numbers, then we might as well use their R0 estimate as well, which is 2.5, which corresponds to a 71.4% herd immunity threshold. That equates to 1.4 million dead in the 70+ bracket and another 310k below 70.

    Worldwide, we're talking about 23 million.
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  2. #20082
    Quote Originally Posted by StayTuned View Post
    Frankfurt is under a curfew at the moment. No going out after 10pm or something like that.

    Where is that damn vaccine....
    At this rate, it won't be available til at least next October or so.

  3. #20083
    Legendary! unfilteredJW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    It came from a journalist I follow on twitter.

    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/stat...99168424620033

    And converting the ratio the CDC use to percentage is just multiply by 100 isn't it? Not meant to be confusing.
    Peter Hitchens.

    Lol.
    Blessed are the fornicates, may we bend down to be their whores. Blessed are the rich, may our labor deliver them more.
    Blessed are the envious; bless the slothful, the wrathful, the vain. Blessed are the gluttonous, may they feast us to famine and war.
    What of the pious, the pure of heart, the peaceful, the meek, the mourning, and the merciful? All doomed, all doomed

  4. #20084
    The most annoying thing about this pandemic is that we're still in its early stages.

  5. #20085
    The last three days have seen 1 million confirmed new cases worldwide.

  6. #20086
    Quote Originally Posted by metzger84 View Post
    The most annoying thing about this pandemic is that we're still in its early stages.
    That's the most depressing part of it. A viable vaccine probably won't see the light of the day until next summer at the very earliest, and more likely in a year's time, and distribution would likely take a couple months on top of that realistically. We might be in sight of 2022 before this bullshit is said and done.
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

  7. #20087
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    1st paragraph: "There's been absurd amounts of scientific study done on the subject of Covid!"

    2nd paragraph: "Rational thought and objective analysis is difficult to find on the subject of Covid!"

    Perhaps you might admit that your position is shit when you directly contradict yourself so badly.
    And perhaps reading comprehension is not your strong suit. I spoke about 2 distinctly different circles of people.
    Yes a lot of research is done by scientists and every article about the long term effects that has been linked here explicitly stated that science is still unsure whether the currently observed long term effects are exclusive to C19 or not.

    The second statement was referring to the common man, not the scientific community. Arguing C19 related topics with the former is currently a fruitless endeavor because yes: fear has been drilled into these people for over half a year now. The moment you deviate from the mainstream media message you are branded a "covidiot".

    2-2.5M people in a year world wide is not a lot. Our planet has a crude death rate of 0.8%, so we lose 62.5M people every year (and still make more).
    Co C19 caused around 3% excess mortality.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    The CDC is a good place to start for analysis and they have recently published new IFR rates by age that don't get much publicity.
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html
    These percentages sound about right.
    Quote Originally Posted by unfilteredJW View Post
    Looks like you’ve found another thread to be wrong in. Your stamina is to be commended.
    Poster1: Listen to the CDC, not trump, you idiots!
    Poster2: NOO CDC is wrong you morons!

    Can you make up your mind already?!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    No sensible person writes that 70+ has an infection fatality ratio of 0.054 and then a survival rate of 94.6%.
    Haha, I didn't even realize that.
    I'm so used to handling %ages as decimals.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Remind me who's going to be paying for all the healthcare and lost productivity from this?
    Tax payers. Just as tax payers pay for all the measures, all the economic rescue packets etc. Ultimately each and everyone of us pays for everything.

    Be it saving an incompetent bank that thought speculation was awesome or treating survivors of C19.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Jastall View Post
    That's the most depressing part of it. A viable vaccine probably won't see the light of the day until next summer at the very earliest, and more likely in a year's time, and distribution would likely take a couple months on top of that realistically. We might be in sight of 2022 before this bullshit is said and done.
    Oh, my dear. This bullshit won't be done by 2022. Not even close to it.
    Even if we are super lucky and the hastily cobbled together vaccine is ready by next summer and turns out to be safer than the actual disease, the economic fallout will be with us for a decade at least.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by breadisfunny View Post
    yes how DARE governments try to contain the spread of covid-19! hundreds of thousands of people are dying to this virus and you have to suffer the indignity of having to be home by 10 pm. here let me play this violin for you. /smallest violin.
    Because an overall curfew would be idiotic and accomplish nothing.

    After doing research, it turns out that it's not an actual curfew.
    To be more precise: bars and restaurants have to close at 23:00 hours.
    That I can actually understand in theory, because drunkards and partyfolk hardly obey the safety measures.

    Whether it will have an actual effect in practice other than hitting the gastronomy business again remains questionable though. Time will tell but my gut tells me that it won't make a dent in the numbers because these party folks will obediently leave the restaurants at 22.00 and continue in their private residences. So the virus doesn't get spread in the evening but during the next days at work instead.

    Same excrement, different color.

    PS: thanks for the awesome violin solo! I am not personally affected though. I always hated gatherings of humans and these "parties".

  8. #20088
    Legendary! unfilteredJW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    And perhaps reading comprehension is not your strong suit. I spoke about 2 distinctly different circles of people.
    Yes a lot of research is done by scientists and every article about the long term effects that has been linked here explicitly stated that science is still unsure whether the currently observed long term effects are exclusive to C19 or not.

    The second statement was referring to the common man, not the scientific community. Arguing C19 related topics with the former is currently a fruitless endeavor because yes: fear has been drilled into these people for over half a year now. The moment you deviate from the mainstream media message you are branded a "covidiot".

    2-2.5M people in a year world wide is not a lot. Our planet has a crude death rate of 0.8%, so we lose 62.5M people every year (and still make more).
    Co C19 caused around 3% excess mortality.

    - - - Updated - - -


    These percentages sound about right.

    Poster1: Listen to the CDC, not trump, you idiots!
    Poster2: NOO CDC is wrong you morons!

    Can you make up your mind already?!

    - - - Updated - - -



    Haha, I didn't even realize that.
    I'm so used to handling %ages as decimals.

    - - - Updated - - -


    Tax payers. Just as tax payers pay for all the measures, all the economic rescue packets etc. Ultimately each and everyone of us pays for everything.

    Be it saving an incompetent bank that thought speculation was awesome or treating survivors of C19.

    - - - Updated - - -


    Oh, my dear. This bullshit won't be done by 2022. Not even close to it.
    Even if we are super lucky and the hastily cobbled together vaccine is ready by next summer and turns out to be safer than the actual disease, the economic fallout will be with us for a decade at least.

    - - - Updated - - -


    Because an overall curfew would be idiotic and accomplish nothing.

    After doing research, it turns out that it's not an actual curfew.
    To be more precise: bars and restaurants have to close at 23:00 hours.
    That I can actually understand in theory, because drunkards and partyfolk hardly obey the safety measures.

    Whether it will have an actual effect in practice other than hitting the gastronomy business again remains questionable though. Time will tell but my gut tells me that it won't make a dent in the numbers because these party folks will obediently leave the restaurants at 22.00 and continue in their private residences. So the virus doesn't get spread in the evening but during the next days at work instead.

    Same excrement, different color.

    PS: thanks for the awesome violin solo! I am not personally affected though. I always hated gatherings of humans and these "parties".
    Dribbles intentions were what were suspect.

    Avoid using me as a step stone in your crusade.
    Blessed are the fornicates, may we bend down to be their whores. Blessed are the rich, may our labor deliver them more.
    Blessed are the envious; bless the slothful, the wrathful, the vain. Blessed are the gluttonous, may they feast us to famine and war.
    What of the pious, the pure of heart, the peaceful, the meek, the mourning, and the merciful? All doomed, all doomed

  9. #20089
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by unfilteredJW View Post
    Dribbles intentions were what were suspect.
    Avoid using me as a step stone in your crusade.
    I don't give a rats ass about your interpretation regarding his intention.
    I only care about what has been said.

    If you do not want others to quote you, stop speaking. I am on no crusade but I did observe some hilarious behavior in this thread regarding the statements of the CDC.

  10. #20090
    Legendary! unfilteredJW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    I don't give a rats ass about your interpretation regarding his intention.
    I only care about what has been said.

    If you do not want others to quote you, stop speaking. I am on no crusade but I did observe some hilarious behavior in this thread regarding the statements of the CDC.
    You put words in my mouth and then get upset with me when I point out you’re wrong.

    You do you boo boo.
    Blessed are the fornicates, may we bend down to be their whores. Blessed are the rich, may our labor deliver them more.
    Blessed are the envious; bless the slothful, the wrathful, the vain. Blessed are the gluttonous, may they feast us to famine and war.
    What of the pious, the pure of heart, the peaceful, the meek, the mourning, and the merciful? All doomed, all doomed

  11. #20091
    Scarab Lord PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    And perhaps reading comprehension is not your strong suit. I spoke about 2 distinctly different circles of people.
    No, not really. Because, you see, the second group is following the suggestions of the first group, so they're not as "different" in this regard as you'd like to pretend. Fool yourself all you want, but there's a reason you feel like the majority disagrees with your view, and it's not because we're wrong.


    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    2-2.5M people in a year world wide is not a lot. Our planet has a crude death rate of 0.8%, so we lose 62.5M people every year (and still make more).
    Co C19 caused around 3% excess mortality.
    Oops, watch out; your sociopath is showing!


    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    These percentages sound about right.

    Poster1: Listen to the CDC, not trump, you idiots!
    Poster2: NOO CDC is wrong you morons!

    Can you make up your mind already?!
    That's not at all what was being said. The percentages are fine. His perspective of the outcome was what was wrong.
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  12. #20092
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Haha, I didn't even realize that.
    I'm so used to handling %ages as decimals.
    I'm used to both, but I'm used to how people try to mislead with numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Because an overall curfew would be idiotic and accomplish nothing.

    After doing research, it turns out that it's not an actual curfew.
    To be more precise: bars and restaurants have to close at 23:00 hours.
    That I can actually understand in theory, because drunkards and partyfolk hardly obey the safety measures.

    Whether it will have an actual effect in practice other than hitting the gastronomy business again remains questionable though. Time will tell but my gut tells me that it won't make a dent in the numbers because these party folks will obediently leave the restaurants at 22.00 and continue in their private residences. So the virus doesn't get spread in the evening but during the next days at work instead.
    To me it looks more like "doing something" than anything real, but time will tell.

    It could be that it makes some aware of the danger. However, another possible downside is not only that the gastronomy business will be hit, but also that there will be more crowding in the remaining ones.

  13. #20093
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    No, not really. Because, you see, the second group is following the suggestions of the first group, so they're not as "different" in this regard as you'd like to pretend. Fool yourself all you want, but there's a reason you feel like the majority disagrees with your view, and it's not because we're wrong.
    I've heard scientists that have differing opinions too, so yeah... don't pretend that there is a unified front here, especially not when it comes to political measures with questionable effectiveness (which was the initial topic).

    Don't get me wrong: I am not anti measures or anti science at all.
    Measures where they make sense: distance, masks where distance is not possible if the infection rates indicate it, masks when dealing with risk groups like nursing homes & hospitals, improved hygienic concepts.
    Protecting risk groups, seeing to it that infection rates stay under control so contact tracing remains viable, I am all for that.

    However there comes a point when you over regulate to a ridiculous degree like e.g.: in Spain where you have to wear a mask at the beach in the sea breeze. Totally idiotic and non scientific. Or (if it had been, it turned out to be a misunderstanding after all) a total curfew after 22:00 hours.

    BTW: why is my sociopath showing?
    Because I tend to put numbers into context? While a 3% increase in global mortality is certainly nothing to cheer about, it's also not something that is overly dramatic.

  14. #20094
    The dutch arent doing too well. The majority infections are caused by Teenagers that infect eachother in school and then their parents At home. Yet they want to close gyms, bars and cafes and keep schools open.

    Its allmost like they want to force a recession at this point. While the death toll was thousands in march, it currently stands at a few dozen. All lives matter but it seems like a kneejerk to force a lockdown when more people die of the flu at this point.

  15. #20095
    Scarab Lord PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    I've heard scientists that have differing opinions too, so yeah... don't pretend that there is a unified front here, especially not when it comes to political measures with questionable effectiveness (which was the initial topic).
    No, actually, the original topic was what you ridiculously call "the media fear stick" and saying that it's irrational. And yes, actually, there's somewhat of a unified front of scientific thinking when it comes to the measure of precaution which is prudent in the face of this pandemic.


    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    However there comes a point when you over regulate to a ridiculous degree like e.g.: in Spain where you have to wear a mask at the beach in the sea breeze. Totally idiotic and non scientific.
    What an incredibly disingenuous oversimplification. For example, there's no law that says that if you're at a beach, you must wear a mask. What they did was remove the exemption that beaches had, and even then, only in some areas, and only in some circumstances.


    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    BTW: why is my sociopath showing?
    Because I tend to put numbers into context? While a 3% increase in global mortality is certainly nothing to cheer about, it's also not something that is overly dramatic.
    It's not a concern for the survival of the human species, no. But most of those deaths were/are avoidable. And shrugging off millions of avoidable deaths is absolutely a sign of sociopathy.

    You might as well say "it is what it is".
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  16. #20096
    Quote Originally Posted by Thereturn View Post
    The dutch arent doing too well. The majority infections are caused by Teenagers that infect eachother in school and then their parents At home. Yet they want to close gyms, bars and cafes and keep schools open.
    The dutch aren't doing great (12% of tests being positive is certainly not a good sign) - however, even if they are rising, the number of persons in hospitals seems to be a tenth of the numbers during the spring.

    But is there a source stating that the infection is primarily caused by teenagers, and that the spread occurs in schools?
    (Teenagers can meet each other after school as well, and their parents can spread it directly as well.)

    And I thought bars and cafes could be open to 22.00, since the virus only comes out at night; and that even if gyms close actual sport events can still be held.

    Quote Originally Posted by Thereturn View Post
    Its allmost like they want to force a recession at this point. While the death toll was thousands in march, it currently stands at a few dozen. All lives matter but it seems like a kneejerk to force a lockdown when more people die of the flu at this point.
    Closing schools will also impact the economy, at least if you want the students to remain home.

  17. #20097
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...th-coronavirus

    First NA case of someone getting re-infected with covid in NV, bringing the total global count up to five.

    Thankfully the numbers are still INSANELY low for this so it seems like there's minimal risk overall absent additional data, but worth noting that beating covid once does not confer immunity to the virus.

  18. #20098
    Scarab Lord PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Where did you find the idea that vaccines normally produce a stronger immunity than recovery?
    I'm pretty sure that I read it somewhere, but I can't find source now, so feel free to take that statement with a grain of salt. I admit that there are many different types of vaccines, and that they hardly all have the same level of effectiveness.

    I would, however, argue that it's at least fairly true that vaccines will have a larger average rate of effectiveness than infection/recovery, simply due to the fact that some people get and recover from a virus with only a light case of infection. Such light cases may often be asymptomatic, or only lightly symptomatic, and they are being shown to produce a weaker immune response. Vaccines should produce a much more standard and average immune response across the board. So if the recovery immunity range is 3 months to 2 years, the vaccine might provide a more predictable immunity response that runs 1 to 1.5 years, perhaps.

    Again, those numbers are just guesses, and I can't find the original quote, so if you find a statement that directly contradicts it, please share it.
    I'm revisiting this because of something in the above article.

    NPR: Scientists Confirm Nevada Man Was Infected Twice With Coronavirus
    A 25-year-old was infected twice with the coronavirus earlier this year, scientists in Nevada have confirmed. It is the first confirmed case of so-called reinfection with the virus in the U.S. and the fifth confirmed reinfection case worldwide.

    The cases underscore the importance of social distancing and wearing masks even if you were previously infected with the virus, and they raise questions about how the human immune system reacts to the virus.

    ...

    The authors of the new study also raise the possibility that cases of people being infected multiple times could have implications for the efficacy of a coronavirus vaccine, since some people exposed to the virus may not be mounting sufficient immune responses to protect themselves from a second infection.

    But Iwasaki says such cases have no bearing on the efficacy of a future vaccine. The virus can deploy proteins to get in the way of the immune response, whereas a vaccine has none of those proteins, she explains. "The good thing about a vaccine is that it can induce much better immunity, a much longer lasting immunity, than the natural exposure to the the virus," she says.
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  19. #20099
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    I'm revisiting this because of something in the above article.

    NPR: Scientists Confirm Nevada Man Was Infected Twice With Coronavirus
    oh god we can only hope, you know....wink wink....would be a fitting end of the last few weeks.....
    "The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president," - McConnell
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  20. #20100
    Scarab Lord PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    More vaccine bad news, unfortunately...

    Johnson & Johnson pauses Covid-19 vaccine trial after 'unexplained illness'
    Drugmaker Johnson & Johnson said Monday it has paused the advanced clinical trial of its experimental coronavirus vaccine because of an unexplained illness in one of the volunteers.

    "Following our guidelines, the participant's illness is being reviewed and evaluated by the ENSEMBLE independent Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) as well as our internal clinical and safety physicians," the company said in a statement. ENSEMBLE is the name of the study.

    "Adverse events -- illnesses, accidents, etc. -- even those that are serious, are an expected part of any clinical study, especially large studies."

    Johnson & Johnson's Janssen vaccine arm is developing the shot. The company did not say what the unexplained illness was, but one point of clinical trials is to find out if vaccines cause dangerous side effects. Trials are stopped when they pop up while doctors check to see if the illness can be linked to the vaccine or is a coincidence.

    "Based on our strong commitment to safety, all clinical studies conducted by the Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson have prespecified guidelines. These ensure our studies may be paused if an unexpected serious adverse event (SAE) that might be related to a vaccine or study drug is reported, so there can be a careful review of all of the medical information before deciding whether to restart the study," the company said.

    "We must respect this participant's privacy. We're also learning more about this participant's illness, and it's important to have all the facts before we share additional information," the company added.

    "Serious adverse events are not uncommon in clinical trials, and the number of serious adverse events can reasonably be expected to increase in trials involving large numbers of participants. Further, as many trials are placebo-controlled, it is not always immediately apparent whether a participant received a study treatment or a placebo."

    The drugmaker said there is a "significant distinction" between a study pause and a regulatory hold on a clinical trial.

    "A study pause, in which recruitment or dosing is paused by the study sponsor, is a standard component of a clinical trial protocol," Johnson & Johnson said.

    "A regulatory hold of a clinical trial is a requirement by a regulatory health authority, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. As outlined in our transparency commitments, we proactively disclose any regulatory hold of a pivotal clinical trial."

    This is the second Phase 3 coronavirus vaccine trial to be paused in the US. AstraZeneca's vaccine trial was paused last month because of a neurological complication in a volunteer in Britain. While the trial resumed there and in other countries, it remains paused in the United States while the US Food and Drug Administration investigates.

    Johnson's Phase 3 trial started in September. It's one of six coronavirus vaccines being tested in the US, and one of four in the most advanced, Phase 3 stage. It requires just one dose of vaccine, so federal officials have said they hope testing may be competed a bit faster than other vaccines, including those being made by Moderna and Pfizer, which require two doses.
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." --Alexandre Dumas-fils

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