Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Shadowferal]

AstraZeneca vaccine up to 90% effective and easily transportable, company says

Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech and Moderna have each reported vaccines that are 95 percent effective in clinical trials. The results from the Oxford-AstraZeneca trial are complicated to compare, due to the trial design, but the vaccine may be a more realistic option for more of the world, as it is likely to be cheaper and does not need to be stored at subzero temperatures.

The Oxford-AstraZeneca team said in a video conference with journalists that their candidate’s offered 90 percent protection against the virus when a subject received a half-dose, followed with a full dose one month later. Efficacy was lower — 62 percent — when subjects received two full doses a month apart. The interim results, therefore, averaged to 70 percent efficacy.

The United States has preordered 300 million doses of the vaccine. Britain has ordered 100 million.

[Pann]

I'm not debating it's a new technology, just saying in the parts of the world where they barely have running water and are affected by COVID-19, requiring those kinds of storage conditions for a vaccine would make things difficult for them. That's the talking point in the article.

There are parts of the world that do not have facilities that we, in the developed world take for granted, but - assuming the Oxford vaccine proves successful [because let's face it at £25 a pop the majority of the developing world is not going to get the Moderna vaccine anytime soon] - it is perfectly possible to store and distribute the vaccine using refrigerated trailers. The storage compared to cost of the vaccine and medically trained people to administer as well as producing 7-14 billion doses it is a minor issue.

I honestly don't why you're making such a big issue out of this.

[Katchii]

I honestly don't why you're making such a big issue out of this.

I'm not, the story I'm discussing did. I'm just highlighting why they thought the difference in storage condition requirements was noteworthy.

Also, with that said, you do honestly seem to be downplaying how much work, money and time it would take to properly arrange for the logistics of distributing the vaccine in areas where they would even need refrigerated trailers. It's not nearly as simple as you make it out to be.

[Forogil]

If it's the same 75% of people I see wearing their masks below their nose, or taking them off to talk on the phone, using them as a chin strap, or not wearing them at all when they're in areas with people they know....I think I know why it's not working.

Strange that studies allegedly showing masks being effective don't suffer that effect.

It might also be due to cloth masks being less effective; or it might be something else.

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One-third of parents in new poll say holiday gatherings worth COVID-19 risk
[i]
A third of parents surveyed in a new poll say it is important that they see their children in person during the Thanksgiving holiday this year, despite warnings from public health officials to forgo festivities due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Have the surveyed which percentage of the grand-parents are interested in this, despite the warnings.

Depressingly, I wouldn't be surprised if their percentage is similar, or possibly higher. (I'm not saying it's the right thing, or smart.)

[PhaelixWW]

The fact that there might be another vaccine that won't require specialized equipment for storage would be a big deal.

However the main advantage is that this vaccine - assuming it passes the regulators - can be transported without the need for extremely specialised equipment.

It's amazing what you can find if you bother to research something.

Moderna Announces Longer Shelf Life for its COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate at Refrigerated Temperatures

Shipping & Long-term Storage: For shipping and longer-term storage, Moderna expects that mRNA-1273 will be maintained at -20°C (-4°F), equal to most home or medical freezer temperatures, for up to 6 months. Using standard freezer temperatures of -20°C (range of -25° to -15°C or -13° to 5°F) is an easier and more established method of distribution and storage than deep freezing and most pharmaceutical distribution companies have the capability to store and ship products at -20°C (-4°F) worldwide.

Refrigeration Storage: After thawing, to facilitate storage at points of administration, Moderna expects that mRNA-1273 will remain stable at standard refrigerated conditions of 2° to 8°C (36° to 46°F) for up to 30 days within the 6-month shelf life. The stability at refrigerated conditions allows for storage at most pharmacies, hospitals, or physicians’ offices.

Room Temperature for Vaccination: Once the vaccine is removed from the refrigerator for administration, it can be kept at room temperature conditions for up to 12 hours.

They consider standard freezers just fine for long-term storage. Even a refrigerator will be good enough for pharmacies for 30 days.

I'd rather have the 95% effectiveness over the 70% effectiveness if everything else remains equal, though it's always good to have more options than fewer.

[Katchii]

Strange that studies allegedly showing masks being effective don't suffer that effect.

It might also be due to cloth masks being less effective; or it might be something else.

If you're trying to infer that the people involved in the study are also super lax when it comes to following mask guidelines I'm going to need a source that says that's how the study was carried out.

Otherwise, I'm going to assume that the folks involved in the study to determine the efficacy of wearing a mask are following the rules and guidelines to the letter. Because if they aren't, the study is basically invalid because the whole point is to study the efficacy of WEARING A MASK. If the people involved aren't doing that, the study results are meaningless.

You can't report on the efficacy of wearing a mask, based on a study where the folks that are supposed to be wearing a mask...aren't wearing a mask, or aren't wearing it properly. Studies like this can only really provide good results under controlled conditions, because if they're uncontrolled, you have no idea what might be contributing to the results and therefore can't come to a conclusion based on them.

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It's amazing what you can find if you bother to research something.

Uh. not sure what you're implying with that little dig there. This is precisely what I was referring to.

[Deja Thoris]

I am not downplaying anything but the fact is refrigeration is not a new technology and we already use equipment that is capable of safely storing these vaccines to transport our food in bulk all across the world.

By all across the world you mean the developed world.

It's a different proposition to transport something and keep the cold chain intact when a place doesn't have electricity or the truck with the refrigeration unit on it can't get petrol or theres not even roads.

[Pann]

I'm not, the story I'm discussing did. I'm just highlighting why they thought the difference in storage condition requirements was noteworthy.

Also, with that said, you do honestly seem to be downplaying how much work, money and time it would take to properly arrange for the logistics of distributing the vaccine in areas where they would even need refrigerated trailers. It's not nearly as simple as you make it out to be.

Your point has gone from being unable to store and distribute the vaccine(s) without specialised equipment to now highlighting the different storage requirements of the potential vaccines?!?

I am not downplaying the logistics involved - manufacturing and distributing potentially 14 billion doses of vaccine will be a task like no other - I am simply pointing out that we already have the technology to meet the vaccines' storage needs.

But I cannot be bothered with the all the goalpost moving so I'll leave you to go back to arguing about masks or whatever.

[PhaelixWW]

Uh. not sure what you're implying with that little dig there. This is precisely what I was referring to.

You've been making out that -20°C is less than -18°C, when it's really not, because in this instance, they're being used to refer to the same thing: standard freezer temperature. The difference is just that the -20°C is common for people who use Celsius, and the 0°F (-18°C) is common for people using Fahrenheit.

Their press release specifically states that standard freezers are just fine, not the "specialized equipment" that the posts I quoted were suggesting would be necessary. The press release also specifically states that the "-20°C" is really "-25°C to -15°C", (ie. standard freezer temperatures) for the purpose of long-term vaccine storage.

[Forogil]

AstraZeneca vaccine up to 90% effective and easily transportable, company says

Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech and Moderna have each reported vaccines that are 95 percent effective in clinical trials. The results from the Oxford-AstraZeneca trial are complicated to compare, due to the trial design, but the vaccine may be a more realistic option for more of the world, as it is likely to be cheaper and does not need to be stored at subzero temperatures.

The Oxford-AstraZeneca team said in a video conference with journalists that their candidate’s offered 90 percent protection against the virus when a subject received a half-dose, followed with a full dose one month later. Efficacy was lower — 62 percent — when subjects received two full doses a month apart. The interim results, therefore, averaged to 70 percent efficacy.

The United States has preordered 300 million doses of the vaccine. Britain has ordered 100 million.

Those statistics look suspicious.

I tried to look at the details of the press-release; and guessing a bit - since they don't present all the details. It seems of the ones with the half+full dose 3 who get the vaccine and 33 that got placebo got infected, compared to 26 vaccinated with full+full and 68 with placebo.

Those numbers mean that there is a large uncertainty in those percentages.

Note that there were a lot more that got full+full, but at first I found it odd that among the ones got placebo in the different variants 1.5% got infected for full+full - compared to 2.4% of the ones that got half+full. However, looking more closely the difference is Brazil only has full+full whereas the UK has both variants, but it seemed they in the UK also tried half+half and full+half - with unknown results.

This raises two questions: Was it more a difference between countries, and not between doses? How many different ways can they slice the results to get good results? I noticed that after Moderna's 94.5% announcement Pfizer/BioNTech found that if they only looked at elderly their vaccine was 95% effective. All these different variants and presenting the best one looks a bit too much like data fishing.

[PhaelixWW]

By all across the world you mean the developed world.

It's a different proposition to transport something and keep the cold chain intact when a place doesn't have electricity or the truck with the refrigeration unit on it can't get petrol or theres not even roads.

Yes, it is indisputably good for the world to have a vaccine option that is both cheaper to manufacture and doesn't require refrigeration. But anywhere that can possibly manage standard freezer storage should opt for the more effective option.

[Katchii]

Your point has gone from being unable to store and distribute the vaccine(s) without specialised equipment to now highlighting the different storage requirements of the potential vaccines?!?

I am not downplaying the logistics involved - manufacturing and distributing potentially 14 billion doses of vaccine will be a task like no other - I am simply pointing out that we already have the technology to meet the vaccines' storage needs.

But I cannot be bothered with the all the goalpost moving so I'll leave you to go back to arguing about masks or whatever.

I have no idea what you're railing against. I'm taking about what the article states:

After Pfizer and Moderna both produced vaccines delivering 95% protection from Covid-19, a figure of 70% is still highly effective, but will be seen by some as relatively disappointing.

But this is still a vaccine that can save lives from Covid-19 and is more effective than a seasonal flu jab.

It also has crucial advantages that make it easier to use. It can be stored at fridge temperature, which means it can be distributed to every corner of the world, unlike the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, which need to be stored at much colder temperatures.

There was no goal post moving. Perhaps I just wasn't making what I was discussing clear. My bad if that's true.

[Forogil]

If you're trying to infer that the people involved in the study are also super lax when it comes to following mask guidelines I'm going to need a source that says that's how the study was carried out.

I don't see that for the new study, but the studies cited by CDC they generally just look at mask mandates in different places - so assuming that people with masks mandates in counties in Kansas (if I remember correctly) wear masks correctly - but not in California and Italy seems a bit farfetched.

[Katchii]

You've been making out that -20°C is less than -18°C, when it's really not, because in this instance, they're being used to refer to the same thing: standard freezer temperature. The difference is just that the -20°C is common for people who use Celsius, and the 0°F (-18°C) is common for people using Fahrenheit.

Their press release specifically states that standard freezers are just fine, not the "specialized equipment" that the posts I quoted were suggesting would be necessary. The press release also specifically states that the "-20°C" is really "-25°C to -15°C", (ie. standard freezer temperatures) for the purpose of long-term vaccine storage.

Oops, I got my wires crossed and haven't been keeping up, sorry. I had only seen the other story that implied the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine would require storage temperatures colder than standard equipment could accomplish. This is good to know.

[Pann]

There was no goal post moving. Perhaps I just wasn't making what I was discussing clear. My bad if that's true.

Fair enough, we appear to have our wires crossed. You're right that being able to store the vaccine at chilled rather than frozen temperatures will certainly make the task of vaccinating the world's population less difficult coupled with this vaccine being nearly 10 times cheaper than the alternatives there is some hope on the horizon that the world will be safe from COVID.

[Katchii]

I don't see that for the new study, but the studies cited by CDC they generally just look at mask mandates in different places - so assuming that people with masks mandates in counties in Kansas (if I remember correctly) wear masks correctly - but not in California and Italy seems a bit farfetched.

There are a number of other factors involved in that case that could be contributing to the results. Population density being a big one.

Kansas only has a population of 2,774,044 in 2020 according to a quick google search and covers an area of ~82,277 mi². Giving it a population density of ~33.7 people per square mile.

California has a population of 39,937,500 covering an area of 163,696 mi². Giving it a population density of ~244 people per square mile. That's ~7 times more dense than Kansas. Los Angeles metropolitan area alone has a population of ~12.5 million and only takes up an area of 503 mi² which is a population density of ~24851 people per square mile. That's 729 times more dense than Kansas

The Country of Italy has a population of ~60 million, covering an area of ~116,347 mi², giving it a population density of 515.7 people per square mile. That's 15 times more dense than Kansas.

Saying these areas are comparable is bonkers.

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Fair enough, we appear to have our wires crossed. You're right that being able to store the vaccine at chilled rather than frozen temperatures will certainly make the task of vaccinating the world's population less difficult coupled with this vaccine being nearly 10 times cheaper than the alternatives there is some hope on the horizon that the world will be safe from COVID.

100% agreed.

[Kryctos]

Whats is the point of a wildly inaccurate same day result test? Is it a scheme by states to show a lower than actual positivity rate?

[Shadowferal]

Whats is the point of a wildly inaccurate same day result test? Is it a scheme by states to show a lower than actual positivity rate?

Or a scheme to show a higher than actual positivity rate?

[Zan15]

Or a scheme to show a higher than actual positivity rate?

Or a scheme to show they have a scheme to scheme you?

[Ripster42]

Or a scheme to show a higher than actual positivity rate?

The tests (both pcr and antigen) have a relatively high false negative rate. Still pretty accurate if you actually are negative.