1. #2201
    Quote Originally Posted by Onikaroshi View Post
    1%? It's 3.4%, that's quite a bit different than 1%
    There are conflicting reports; but 1% is likely correct - since it is the data from S. Korea (who were obsessive about testing) and a study found that result as well.

    The reason for the difference is that the number of infected is likely underreported in many countries, due to lack of testing, and because mild cases just feel like the common cold - and people don't even bother to try to get tested. (The dead and severe cases are less easy to miss.)

    The downside is that all of those undetected cases are spreading the virus; so think 50k infected in Italy instead of 10k and you understand how this will go.

  2. #2202
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    There are conflicting reports; but 1% is likely correct - since it is the data from S. Korea (who were obsessive about testing) and a study found that result as well.

    The reason for the difference is that the number of infected is likely underreported in many countries, due to lack of testing, and because mild cases just feel like the common cold - and people don't even bother to try to get tested. (The dead and severe cases are less easy to miss.)

    The downside is that all of those undetected cases are spreading the virus; so think 50k infected in Italy instead of 10k and you understand how this will go.
    Worldwide the WHO has it at 3.4%, I'll call it 3.4% until they change it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    Exactly. But its also something that should already be in place, which is why one bill was shot down. It's almost too late to enact a sweeping change no one is prepared for in the middle of a crisis.

    Let's say tomorrow a bill is passed that requires paid leave. In a economy built around 'voluntary employment', many businesses cannot afford for their employees to take off like that. So the government needs to pay for it. That's fine in my book EXCEPT we have a country of overworked people in the middle of a health scare - everyone is going to want to take off. We're talking a collapse of the workforce, which honestly might happen anyway.
    You have to require a positive test to get pay honestly, it can't just be all willy nilly.

  3. #2203
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    It quite literally has a 3.7% mortality rate for confirmed cases so far (6.7% mortality rate for closed cases). Scientists suspect that the ultimate mortality rate will be somewhat lower once all is said and done, but there's zero evidence pointing specifically to 1%.
    There was a report by Imperial College in London who got 1% with some margin of error. I wouldn't call that zero evidence.

  4. #2204
    Herald of the Titans Strawberry's Avatar
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    Italy has 15% mortality rate.

    But Italians seem to die easily from flu:

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...4LsxV-U9059yZg

  5. #2205
    Quote Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
    Italy has 15% mortality rate.

    But Italians seem to die easily from flu:

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...4LsxV-U9059yZg
    Italians are old, 23% over the age of 65, avg age of 47

  6. #2206
    Herald of the Titans ercarp's Avatar
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    109 cases in Finland as of today. Was 65 yesterday. Most of them are in the capital region (where I live), but they haven't closed anything yet.

  7. #2207
    Quote Originally Posted by Onikaroshi View Post
    Worldwide the WHO has it at 3.4%, I'll call it 3.4% until they change it.
    Wrong, WHO does not have the fatality rate at 3.4%.

    Look carefully at:
    https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...--3-march-2020
    The statement was "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died."
    That is correct, but doesn't say what you think as the issue is the number of infected that aren't reported.

    WHO know the difference between reported and infected and choose that word carefully, especially as the next statement was
    "By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected."

    Obviously we don't how many unreported cases there are, but we can make estimates. One way is to look at countries really testing, as S. Korea, or use more advanced statistical methods as Imperial College did.

  8. #2208
    The Forgettable Forgettable's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Wrong, WHO does not have the fatality rate at 3.4%.

    Look carefully at:
    https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...--3-march-2020
    The statement was "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died."
    That is correct, but doesn't say what you think as the issue is the number of infected that aren't reported.

    WHO know the difference between reported and infected and choose that word carefully, especially as the next statement was
    "By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected."

    Obviously we don't how many unreported cases there are, but we can make estimates. One way is to look at countries really testing, as S. Korea, or use more advanced statistical methods as Imperial College did.
    This is probably the most important post regarding the death rate. Lots of misinformation out there people. Confirmed & reported cases =/= Unreported cases. You sure as hell know that every death will be recorded, but there will be lots of people with the virus that simply won't be added to the tally because they'll never go to the doctor to get checked. This will skew the mortality rate of the confirmed & reported cases higher than the actual rate.

  9. #2209
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Wrong, WHO does not have the fatality rate at 3.4%.

    Look carefully at:
    https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...--3-march-2020
    The statement was "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died."
    That is correct, but doesn't say what you think as the issue is the number of infected that aren't reported.

    WHO know the difference between reported and infected and choose that word carefully, especially as the next statement was
    "By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected."

    Obviously we don't how many unreported cases there are, but we can make estimates. One way is to look at countries really testing, as S. Korea, or use more advanced statistical methods as Imperial College did.
    The only number we know now is 3.4%, it will remain 3.4% until they come up with a different number.

  10. #2210
    The Lightbringer PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    There was a report by Imperial College in London who got 1% with some margin of error. I wouldn't call that zero evidence.
    You mean this report of their ESTIMATE, which was published over a month ago? It's an early estimate, no more, no less. It's not proof, nor some high refinement of scads of data.
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  11. #2211
    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    You don't want to overload hospitals or coax the virus into a deadly mutation. It's all about mitigating factors you can control to head off one's you can't.
    I'd love to upvote you Simple explaination of the inherent risks and consencuences if you let this ''flu'' go about its merry way.
    ''With this attack, we have no choice but to protect our kind by unleashing our almighty weapon upon them. Summoning the Apocalypse'' - Stellaris Apocalypse trailer.

  12. #2212
    The Lightbringer PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
    Italy has 15% mortality rate.
    I think you divided the wrong direction; Italy's mortality rate is actually 6.7%. 1016 deaths in 15113 cases.
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  13. #2213
    Warchief Zatheyll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onikaroshi View Post
    No hyperbole, just the way it is, most Americans can't afford to catch it
    Americans are some of the richest people on Earth, even the ones making minimum wage. It astounds me how self-centered the average American is. They were joking about the virus for months, and now that it has a chance of making them lose even a couple weeks of wages, they're losing their shit. It's pathetic.

    How dare they close schools or bars in an effort to stop the spread, who gives a shit about the hundreds of millions of lives being ruined everywhere else! /s




    To elaborate on the above: Someone making 8 dollars an hour (many states are higher than that now) is in the top 8% richest on Earth. The median wage in the USA (16.67 an hour) puts you in the top 1% richest on Earth.
    Last edited by Zatheyll; 2020-03-12 at 09:00 PM.

  14. #2214
    The Lightbringer PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forgettable View Post
    You sure as hell know that every death will be recorded, but there will be lots of people with the virus that simply won't be added to the tally because they'll never go to the doctor to get checked. This will skew the mortality rate of the confirmed & reported cases higher than the actual rate.
    And some of those confirmed cases that aren't dead... will be in the future. Which will tend skew the numbers the other direction. Trying to guess which one is more over-/under-represented is just that: a guess. With the timeframe we're looking at here, combined with the vast differences in testing capability, health care capability, underlying health factors, and frankly more factors that we're probably unaware of, there's no way to legitimately refine that guess much.

    Which is why it's far easier to just use the crude data for now and argue about the true mortality rate later. It'll probably be less than 3%. But it also might not be. Regardless, nobody should be handwaving a 1% rate any more than they should be handwaving a 3% rate, so it doesn't much matter.
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  15. #2215
    The Unstoppable Force PACOX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onikaroshi View Post
    Worldwide the WHO has it at 3.4%, I'll call it 3.4% until they change it.

    - - - Updated - - -



    You have to require a positive test to get pay honestly, it can't just be all willy nilly.
    What if someone in your home has it or you just came from a place where someone had it? Unless we're testing people as soon as they walk outside those are the quarantine guidelines.

  16. #2216
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    You mean this report of their ESTIMATE, which was published over a month ago? It's an early estimate, no more, no less. It's not proof, nor some high refinement of scads of data.
    The point is that it is not zero evidence, as you stated.

  17. #2217
    The Lightbringer PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    The point is that it is not zero evidence, as you stated.
    A hypothesis is not evidence. Where did you learn about science, anyway?
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  18. #2218
    Quote Originally Posted by Zatheyll View Post
    Americans are some of the richest people on Earth, even the ones making minimum wage. It astounds me how self-centered the average American is. They were joking about the virus for months, and now that it has a chance of making them lose even a couple weeks of wages, they're losing their shit. It's pathetic.

    How dare they close schools or bars in an effort to stop the spread, who gives a shit about the hundreds of millions of lives being ruined everywhere else! /s




    To elaborate on the above: Someone making 8 dollars an hour (many states are higher than that now) is in the top 8% richest on Earth. The median wage in the USA puts you in the top 1% richest on Earth.
    What? Most Americans don't even make enough to live a decent life. Making 8 dollars an hour US doesn't mean much went rent is over 800-1000 a month, plus utilities at another 2-300.

    You'd have to work 100 hours just to cover rent at 8 dollars an hour.

  19. #2219
    Quote Originally Posted by Zatheyll View Post
    Americans are some of the richest people on Earth, even the ones making minimum wage. It astounds me how self-centered the average American is. They were joking about the virus for months, and now that it has a chance of making them lose even a couple weeks of wages, they're losing their shit. It's pathetic.

    How dare they close schools or bars in an effort to stop the spread, who gives a shit about the hundreds of millions of lives being ruined everywhere else! /s




    To elaborate on the above: Someone making 8 dollars an hour (many states are higher than that now) is in the top 8% richest on Earth. The median wage in the USA puts you in the top 1% richest on Earth.
    And whats the cost of living there? You do know, that you have to pay for medical aid yourself and that some prices are insane over there?
    ''With this attack, we have no choice but to protect our kind by unleashing our almighty weapon upon them. Summoning the Apocalypse'' - Stellaris Apocalypse trailer.

  20. #2220
    The Lightbringer PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onikaroshi View Post
    What? Most Americans don't even make enough to live a decent life.
    To be fair, our standard of living is so high that what we tend to consider a "decent life" seems like a warped perspective to many outside the country.
    "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." --Alexandre Dumas-fils

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