Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Forogil]

Read something interesting today. Everyone should by now know that the death-count isn't 3,366,816 as seen on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
IMHE that have consistently made bad models recently made a new model saying we have had 6.9 million deaths http://www.healthdata.org/news-relea...l-reports-show - and as previously discussed that model doesn't make sense.

The new analysis is https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...g-the-pandemic and between 7 and 13 million deaths; so between double and four times the reported deaths.

However, the number isn't as important as where the deaths have deaths have been. In contrast to IMHE they don't see large number of uncounted deaths in Europe, United States, and Canada. Instead they see the majority it in poorer countries (in Africa, Asia, and S. America) - where we don't have reliable and up-to-date statistics even for the number of deaths.

[Machismo]

Masks will not give 100% protection, so in my opinion it is simply impractical

That makes no sense at all.

Seat belts don't give 100% protection, nor do condoms, air bags, birth control pills, motorcycle helmets, flight control measures for aircrafts, wearing warm clothes to prevent frostbite, or brushing your teeth to prevent cavities.

Are you saying you don't brush your teeth?

[Zantos]

In contrast to IMHE they don't see large number of uncounted deaths in Europe, United States, and Canada. Instead they see the majority it in poorer countries (in Africa, Asia, and S. America) - where we don't have reliable and up-to-date statistics even for the number of deaths.

I wouldn't trust IMHE then since we already know that the US has had several states out right hiding numbers. It was all over the news. Its obvious that its highly under reported in the US when you look at the excessive death numbers we had and the fact that we can't account for most of them Other then saying they were covid.

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It's far from certain that children are relevant for this, and the 75% number isn't that clear.

No, no it is not far from certain. It is very certain that children are relevant for this. And no, 75% isn't clear. Its the bare minimum that is Required in order to possibly get herd immunity, depending on the locations of the other 25% that aren't immune.

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In the US some regions will have herd immunity and some won’t.

Herd immunity is all or nothing. One region having their native population at 75% wont help when others travel there, as we saw with the Disney world measles incident.

[Forogil]

No, no it is not far from certain. It is very certain that children are relevant for this.

There are several indications that children spread this disease less than adults - and thus they are less relevant.
That's one of the reasons many countries kept schools open (especially for younger children) after the first wave.

Additionally Israel currently seem to have stopped transmissions completely with few restrictions in place, with almost all adults vaccinated and few children.
Israel haven't reached 75% vaccinated in the general population, and it's unclear if 75% are immune in general, but they have >90% of adults vaccinated.

And no, 75% isn't clear. Its the bare minimum that is Required in order to possibly get herd immunity, depending on the locations of the other 25% that aren't immune.

The number required depends on the basic reproduction number R0 for the disease without measures; which seems to be somewhere around 3-4; and the herd immunity level is just 100%*(1-1/R0). However, R0 isn't determined solely by the virus - but by a combination of the virus and how we behave (including how densely we live), and will thus likely vary between countries.

Herd immunity is all or nothing. One region having their native population at 75% wont help when others travel there, as we saw with the Disney world measles incident.

One region having their native population immune above the herd immunity threshold certainly helps that region; regardless of other ones.

People from outside the region might still get it there and spread it among themselves (half of the children were unvaccinated even if they were old enough to get vaccinated in the measles incident), or people from that region might catch it in other places, but the virus cannot gain a foot-hold in the region due to the herd immunity.

And it's certainly not an all or nothing: as soon as a region have significant vaccination levels the disease will spread less; even if the region haven't reached the basic herd immunity level. That is because anything that reduces the spread of the virus reduces the effective R - and that gives a higher effective herd immunity level with those measures in place - and if that is reached the virus stops spreading.

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I wouldn't trust IMHE then since we already know that the US has had several states out right hiding numbers. It was all over the news. Its obvious that its highly under reported in the US when you look at the excessive death numbers we had and the fact that we can't account for most of them Other then saying they were covid.

The US doesn't have lots of unaccounted for deaths; but only about 40k or so in total, which is less than 10% of the total reported covid-deaths in the US. Obviously not ideal, and worse than the situation in western Europe.

Compare that with Mexico that has about 240k, or more than 120% of the total reported covid-deaths; and Russia has almost 400k or more than 400%, and then there are Egypt, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and likely India. (So India likely has several times more covid-deaths than the US.)

[postman1782]

Masks will not give 100% protection, so in my opinion it is simply impractical

Neither does any form of birth control. Does that mean they simply don't work?

[Zan15]

That makes no sense at all.

Seat belts don't give 100% protection, nor do condoms, air bags, birth control pills, motorcycle helmets, flight control measures for aircrafts, wearing warm clothes to prevent frostbite, or brushing your teeth to prevent cavities.

Are you saying you don't brush your teeth?

brushing your tooth is over rated.

wait what do you mean you have more than one tooth?

[caractacus]

In the UK, back when this all started, the majority of experts I saw gave numerous reasons why they were hesitant to endorse the use of masks, these included; You need to wear a mask that creates a complete seal, you need to also cover your eyes, people wear mask incorrectly, keep touching their face to adjust it and take the same mask on and off again. Since that time I haven't seen any compelling evidence to show that mask wearing among the general public has any significant benefit.

I think if you have an environment like a medical one where everyone understands all the above issues then masks are essential. If people want me to wear a mask inside in normal situations, where there is greater risk, and it makes them feel better then I'm happy to do it. Personally I think wearing masks outside is not worth it and more harm than good for some of the above issues and that it restricts breathing. Unless I saw evidence to the contrary I wouldn't wear a mask outside.

[jonnysensible]

i wearing a mask from now until i croak, havent had a cold in a year and dystopian and cool

[Unholyground]

One bonus of this pandemic is many countries have to look at creating universal basic income or something similar for their people since the unemployment rate is substantially higher now everywhere and many won't be able to find gainful employment for a long while.

[markos82]

Just got vaccinated in a mall, Sinofarm....

[Felya]

i wearing a mask from now until i croak, havent had a cold in a year and dystopian and cool

I’m with you... I’m vacced and still wearing a mask... I honestly didn’t realize about the flying, rouge spittle... I don’t care if it’s harmless... I’ve seen where humans have been...

Plus, I haven’t shaved, outside the sides, where the mask doesn’t cover... in like 10 months... I can twirl my mustache, like a pirate... and a bearded is the best fidget spinner... why has no one ever told me, that twirling your facial hair, is like meditation... I now get why women twirl their hair... it’s not stupid or shallow, it’s very grounding and relaxing... things going crazy, twirl your beard and everything is alright...

[Acidbaron]

So there's talk now about possibly a 3rd injection next year, makes me wonder if that is the case if it's going to be an annual thing.

That is whenever i get finally get my first.

[Forogil]

So there's talk now about possibly a 3rd injection next year, makes me wonder if that is the case if it's going to be an annual thing.

Possibly, or every other year - or perhaps only for the elderly.
We really don't know how long the vaccine immunity lasts - and unfortunately the normal immunity for other coronaviruses only last about six months; and it might be that this virus also is so strongly seasonal so that we will need it every fall.

That the virus would be with us for a long time was a given a year ago.

Note that for such booster shots we cannot really use adeno-vaccines like Vaxzevria (from AstraZeneca) or Sputnik V (from Russia), or the single-dose one from Janssen (or J&J), since there's a risk that you react more to the adeno-virus than to the corona-virus. Thus Moderna and Pfizer are preparing for that.

This also influences the discussion about sending vaccines to poorer countries. Do we think they will be able to afford mRNA vaccines every year? It seems the pledges for Covax is about 4 billion $ this year; and might be enough for about 1 billion of adeno-virus vaccines, which have a number of drawbacks,- but mRNA vaccines seem to cost 15-20$ per dose, so vaccinating every adult in poor countries every year would take a significant fraction of the total foreign aid.

[Zan15]

i wearing a mask from now until i croak, havent had a cold in a year and dystopian and cool

i just want to wear it for the lol's. Drive up to the hill towns and go to a Walmart on the weekend with two mask on!
Biden effect GO!

[Rasulis]

Go get your vaccine shot.

Why Is Covid Killing So Many Young Children in Brazil? Doctors Are Baffled

Covid-19 is ravaging Brazil, and, in a disturbing new wrinkle that experts are working to understand, it appears to be killing babies and small children at an unusually high rate.

Since the start of the pandemic, 832 children 5 and under have died of the virus, according to Brazil’s health ministry. Comparable data is scarce because countries track the impact of the virus differently, but in the United States, which has a far larger population than Brazil, and a higher death toll from Covid-19, 139 children 4 and under have died.

And Brazil’s official number of child deaths is likely a substantial undercount, as a lack of widespread testing means many cases go undiagnosed, said Dr. Fátima Marinho, an epidemiologist at the University of São Paulo.

Dr. Marinho, who is leading a study tallying the death toll among children based on both suspected and confirmed cases, estimates that more than 2,200 children under 5 have died since the start of the pandemic, including more than 1,600 babies less than a year old.

“We are seeing a huge impact on children,” said Dr. Marinho. “It’s a number that’s absurdly high. We haven’t seen this anywhere else in the world.”

Experts in Brazil, Europe and the United States agree that the number of children’s deaths from Covid-19 in Brazil appeared to be particularly high.

“Those numbers are surprising. That’s a lot higher than what we’re seeing in the US,” said Dr. Sean O’Leary, the vice chair of the American Academy of Pediatrics’ committee on infectious diseases, and a pediatrics infectious disease specialist at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus. “By any of the measures that we’re following here in the U.S., those numbers are quite a bit higher.”

There is no evidence available on the impact of variants of the virus — which scientists say are leading to more severe cases of Covid in young, healthy adults and driving up death tolls in Brazil — on babies and children.

But experts say the variant appears to be leading to higher death rates among pregnant women. Some women with Covid are giving birth to stillborn or premature babies already infected with the virus, said Dr. André Ricardo Ribas Freitas, an epidemiologist at São Leopoldo Mandic College in Campinas, who led a recent study on the impact of the variant.

“We can already affirm that the P.1 variant is much more severe in pregnant women,” said Dr. Ribas Freitas. “And, oftentimes, if the pregnant woman has the virus, the baby might not survive or they might both die.”

Lack of timely and adequate access to health care for children once they fall ill is likely a factor in the death toll, experts said. In the United States and Europe, experts said, early treatment has been key to the recovery of children infected with the virus. In Brazil, overstretched doctors have often been late to confirm infections in children, Dr. Marinho said.

“Children are not being tested,” she said. “They get sent away, and it’s only when these children return in a really bad state that Covid-19 is suspected.”

Dr. Lara Shekerdemian, the chief of critical care at Texas Children’s Hospital, said that the mortality rate for children who get Covid-19 remains very low, but children living in countries where medical care is uneven were at greater risk.

“A child that might just need a bit of oxygen today may end up on a ventilator next week if they don’t have access to the oxygen and the steroid that we give early in the disease process,” Dr. Shekerdemian said. “So what might end up as a simple hospitalization in my world can result in a child needing medical care they simply can’t get if there’s a delay in access to care.”

A study published in the Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal in January found that children in Brazil and four other countries in Latin America developed more severe forms of Covid-19 and more cases of multisystem inflammatory syndrome, a rare and extreme immune response to the virus, compared with data from China, Europe and North America.

Even before the pandemic began, millions of Brazilians living in poor areas had limited access to basic health care. In recent months, the system has been overwhelmed as a crush of patients have flooded into critical care units, resulting in a chronic shortage of beds.

“There’s a barrier to access for many,” said Dr. Ana Luisa Pacheco, a pediatric infectious diseases specialist at the Heitor Vieira Dourado Tropical Medicine Foundation in Manaus. “For some children, it takes three or four hours by boat to get to a hospital.”

The cases in children have shot up amid Brazil’s broader explosion in infections, which experts attribute to President Jair Bolsonaro’s cavalier response to the pandemic and his government’s refusal to take vigorous measures to promote social distancing. A lagging economy has also left millions without income or enough food, forcing many to risk infection as they search for work.

Some of the children who have died of the virus already had health issues that made them more vulnerable. Still, Dr. Marinho estimates that they represent just over a quarter of deaths among children under 10. That suggests that healthy children, too, seem to be at heightened risk from the virus in Brazil.

Letícia Marinheiro was one such child, her mother said. A healthy baby who had just started walking, she had never been sick before, Ms. Marinheiro said.

Ms. Marinheiro, who was infected along with her husband Diego, 39, believes Letícia might have lived if her illness had been treated with more urgency.

“I think they didn’t believe that she could be so sick, they didn’t believe it could happen to a child,” said Ms. Marinheiro.

She recalled pleading to have more tests done. Four days into the child’s hospitalization, she said, doctors had still not fully examined Letícia’s lungs.

Ms. Marinheiro is still unsure how her family got sick.

She had kept Letícia — a first child the couple had badly wanted for years — at home and away from everyone. Mr. Marinheiro, a supplier of hair salon products, had been cautious to avoid contact with clients, even as he kept working to keep the family financially afloat.

For Ms. Marinheiro, the sudden death of her daughter has left a gaping hole in her life. As the pandemic rages on, she says, she wishes other parents would quit underestimating the dangers of the virus that took Letícia away from her. In her city, she watches as families throw birthday parties for children and officials push to reopen schools.

“This virus is so inexplicable,” she said. “It’s like playing the lottery. And we never believe it will happen to us. It’s only when it takes someone from your family.”

On the brighter side, children between 12 and 15 are lining up to get their vaccines in CA. Pediatricians across the state were running out of appointments in less than an hour. LA County officials were even reporting that some parents were trying to pass their 10-year as 12-year.

[PACOX]

So there's talk now about possibly a 3rd injection next year, makes me wonder if that is the case if it's going to be an annual thing.

That is whenever i get finally get my first.

They are talking about one this year (depending on when you got yours).

[Svifnymr]

So there's talk now about possibly a 3rd injection next year, makes me wonder if that is the case if it's going to be an annual thing.

That is whenever i get finally get my first.

I assumed from the start that it'd be annually, like the flu shot, though I don't think they can combine them into one shot. Dunno though! Maybe the nanobot trackers in the covid shot will interfere with the mind control nanobots in the flu shot.

[draynay]

I assumed from the start that it'd be annually, like the flu shot, though I don't think they can combine them into one shot. Dunno though! Maybe the nanobot trackers in the covid shot will interfere with the mind control nanobots in the flu shot.

We need a steady supply of fresh troops for the nano-war. Annual shots for everyone.

[Rasulis]

Here is an interesting look at US vaccination by ethnicity.

Nationwide by % of total population by ethicity - AAPI : White : Black : Hispanic = 50% : 40% : 27% : 29%

CA - 57% : 51% : 35% : 34%
TX - 54% : 38% : 25% : 30%
NY - 64% : 45% : 28% : 33%
MS - 57% : 31% : 28% : 23%

Here are two anomalies. Not sure why the large discrepancies. Rather odd.

SD - 8% : 41% : 16% : 3%
PA - 3% : 41% : 17% : 21%

[Puupi]

Here is an interesting look at US vaccination by ethnicity.

Nationwide by % of total population by ethicity - AAPI : White : Black : Hispanic = 50% : 40% : 27% : 29%

CA - 57% : 51% : 35% : 34%
TX - 54% : 38% : 25% : 30%
NY - 64% : 45% : 28% : 33%
MS - 57% : 31% : 28% : 23%

Here are two anomalies. Not sure why the large discrepancies. Rather odd.

SD - 8% : 41% : 16% : 3%
PA - 3% : 41% : 17% : 21%

Maybe they count the natives as Asians for SD?