1. #22821
    I am Murloc! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    Again according to everything we have learned from this virus 2 weeks is not enough time and half the country is not high enough for herd immunity.
    Herd immunity is a pipe dream at this point, unfortunately.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  2. #22822
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Herd immunity is a pipe dream at this point, unfortunately.
    And still most developed countries seek it before Q3. We will see if it has succeeded next winter.

  3. #22823
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    And still most developed countries seek it before Q3. We will see if it has succeeded next winter.
    Herd Immunity works just fine. After 50+% of population fully vaccinated, we're pretty dropped all effective restrictions for several weeks now. We had holidays two weeks ago and country-wide elections two and a half weeks ago and our R number is steady, it is undeniable that mass vaccination works.

    I think almost all of it is done with Phizer. Right now as next step vaccination of 12-16 yo should begin, waiting for approval from trials. Then of course you have people who simply don't want to take a jab, but they do not matter anymore.



    - - - Updated - - -

    Basically, the end is in sight - the moment you have a critical mass vaccinated, that will be the end of it.

  4. #22824
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Almost unreal to read something positive.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before. A bunch of times actually.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I never said I was knowledge-able and I wouldn't even care if I was the least knowledge-able person and the biggest dumb-ass out of all 7.8 billion people on the planet.

  5. #22825
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Herd immunity is a pipe dream at this point, unfortunately.
    Looks like that country will forever be just shy of herd immunity too, so close yet out of reach. They've stopped shipping and won't be shipping anymore there due to them skipping out on paying for the vaccine. So dumb of them. But hey, maybe they can get herd immunity the good old fashion way.

  6. #22826
    I am Murloc! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Basically, the end is in sight - the moment you have a critical mass vaccinated, that will be the end of it.
    Except it almost certainly won't get to that point.

    You have to understand, the herd immunity threshold is likely above 80% now, especially considering the higher transmissibility of the new variants. Combine that with vaccine effectiveness less than 100%, vaccination participation emphatically less than 100%, and the fact that about 20% of the population is under the age of 15 (who may or may not even get the vaccine), and the fact that the protection is almost certainly not permanent, it's becoming increasingly unlikely that we'll actually reach and maintain herd immunity.

    None of that is to say that things won't be drastically better. We should absolutely get close enough to prevent these wide-scale outbreaks, but I seriously doubt that there "will be the end of it".

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    And still most developed countries seek it before Q3. We will see if it has succeeded next winter.
    Well, it's not an all-or-nothing proposition. Of course we should continue to seek herd immunity. The higher we push the vaccination number, the better. I'm hardly suggesting otherwise.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  7. #22827
    The Unstoppable Force Arrashi's Avatar
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    950 dead today in Poland. We have a strong chance to be number 1 unless USA/Brasil tries something funny.

  8. #22828
    Old God Yunru's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arrashi View Post
    950 dead today in Poland. We have a strong chance to be number 1 unless USA/Brasil tries something funny.
    4097 dead so far in total here. (on a 2 milion population)
    But yeah 5 died today.

    Hospitals are pretty much full.
    Don't sweat the details!!!

  9. #22829
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    *snip*
    I mean, call it what you like. I'm basically speaking from experience of living here - reality is the moment you have a critical mass going, that's it.

    Would it be better at 80% population vaccinated instead of 55%? Sure, but already at 55% it seems to be taking hold well enough for restrictions to be dropped and public events held without major spike.

    I don't think there will be any country in the world that will have 80%+ of populace vaccinated, but it's not really needed to be THAT high for sanity to return. I imagine we will get to 65%, but I don't expect any more than that - at that point you'd need people to be forced to get more.

    Besides, frankly - I and all those I care about are covered anyway. I can't help those 1 million crazies that we have that are eligible, but simply do not do it - it's on them.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Mostly, again, the point is - vaccination is super important and it is very effective. So help yourselves and others, if you can.

  10. #22830
    Americans are the Chinese of the west. The main reason people tolerate them is because they are too big to ignore.

    "Admit nothing, deny everything, launch counterattack." - Roger Stone (Trump's Friend, Ally, and Campaign Advisor)

  11. #22831
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    I mean, call it what you like. I'm basically speaking from experience of living here - reality is the moment you have a critical mass going, that's it.

    Would it be better at 80% population vaccinated instead of 55%? Sure, but already at 55% it seems to be taking hold well enough for restrictions to be dropped and public events held without major spike.

    I don't think there will be any country in the world that will have 80%+ of populace vaccinated, but it's not really needed to be THAT high for sanity to return. I imagine we will get to 65%, but I don't expect any more than that - at that point you'd need people to be forced to get more.

    Besides, frankly - I and all those I care about are covered anyway. I can't help those 1 million crazies that we have that are eligible, but simply do not do it - it's on them.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Mostly, again, the point is - vaccination is super important and it is very effective. So help yourselves and others, if you can.
    The problem is, if we can't get rid of it, it will mutate, and then we might be back at this shit in a year or two or less. I do hope it will work out in the end but I am not too optimistic considering how stupid the world behaves with this pandemic.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before. A bunch of times actually.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I never said I was knowledge-able and I wouldn't even care if I was the least knowledge-able person and the biggest dumb-ass out of all 7.8 billion people on the planet.

  12. #22832
    I am Murloc! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    The problem is, if we can't get rid of it, it will mutate, and then we might be back at this shit in a year or two or less. I do hope it will work out in the end but I am not too optimistic considering how stupid the world behaves with this pandemic.
    That is also extremely unlikely.

    Covid ravaged the world because SARS-CoV-2 was a novel coronavirus. It's no longer novel, and it's also unlikely that a variant would mutate enough to completely invalidate any immune system memory.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  13. #22833
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    The problem is, if we can't get rid of it, it will mutate, and then we might be back at this shit in a year or two or less. I do hope it will work out in the end but I am not too optimistic considering how stupid the world behaves with this pandemic.
    If... then...

    There is no point shaking over something that may or may not happen. That bridge will be crossed once we get there.

  14. #22834
    Pit Lord Tuor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    I mean, call it what you like. I'm basically speaking from experience of living here - reality is the moment you have a critical mass going, that's it.

    Would it be better at 80% population vaccinated instead of 55%? Sure, but already at 55% it seems to be taking hold well enough for restrictions to be dropped and public events held without major spike.

    I don't think there will be any country in the world that will have 80%+ of populace vaccinated, but it's not really needed to be THAT high for sanity to return. I imagine we will get to 65%, but I don't expect any more than that - at that point you'd need people to be forced to get more.

    Besides, frankly - I and all those I care about are covered anyway. I can't help those 1 million crazies that we have that are eligible, but simply do not do it - it's on them.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Mostly, again, the point is - vaccination is super important and it is very effective. So help yourselves and others, if you can.
    Actually, i agree with Phaelix this one time. we still don't know if the vaccines prevents infections or it just reduces the symptoms. We also don't know how long the effects of the vaccine last, could be a year or even less.

    Knowing this, hitting the so called herd imunity might be utopical, because we will have to hit it, and mantain it after.

    One thing i know for sure, the virus has come to stay, the spanish flu virus for example circulated for 40 years after the 1918-20 pandemic.


  15. #22835
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    That is also extremely unlikely.

    Covid ravaged the world because SARS-CoV-2 was a novel coronavirus. It's no longer novel, and it's also unlikely that a variant would mutate enough to completely invalidate any immune system memory.
    Ok, what do you base this on? The likelyness.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before. A bunch of times actually.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I never said I was knowledge-able and I wouldn't even care if I was the least knowledge-able person and the biggest dumb-ass out of all 7.8 billion people on the planet.

  16. #22836
    I am Murloc! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    Ok, what do you base this on? The likelyness.
    Again, because it was novel before, but it won't be next time. People will continue to get sick, but many fewer will die, because most people at some point will have fractional immunity.

    Viruses don't mutate into completely different viruses. A small part mutates and it becomes a variant, but it would take ridiculously unlucky mutation to cause it to completely ignore any previous immunity.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  17. #22837
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Again, because it was novel before, but it won't be next time. People will continue to get sick, but many fewer will die, because most people at some point will have fractional immunity.

    Viruses don't mutate into completely different viruses. A small part mutates and it becomes a variant, but it would take ridiculously unlucky mutation to cause it to completely ignore any previous immunity.
    Until we get better with therapeutics there's really no way to know right now the focus is on vaccines but treatment is the way to learn to live with the virus. We still don't know much about this virus it is still novel, It takes years of study and research for something to not be novel, every month we learn something new about it.

  18. #22838
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Again, because it was novel before, but it won't be next time. People will continue to get sick, but many fewer will die, because most people at some point will have fractional immunity.

    Viruses don't mutate into completely different viruses. A small part mutates and it becomes a variant, but it would take ridiculously unlucky mutation to cause it to completely ignore any previous immunity.
    You wrote just 2 posts ago that protection is most certainly not permanent.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before. A bunch of times actually.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I never said I was knowledge-able and I wouldn't even care if I was the least knowledge-able person and the biggest dumb-ass out of all 7.8 billion people on the planet.

  19. #22839
    I am Murloc! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    Until we get better with therapeutics there's really no way to know right now the focus is on vaccines but treatment is the way to learn to live with the virus. We still don't know much about this virus it is still novel, It takes years of study and research for something to not be novel, every month we learn something new about it.
    Um... a virus is "novel" not so much because we don't have complete information about it, but because we collectively have not had prior exposure, and thus no resistance, to it. Once we get somewhere near full exposure to the virus, through either prior exposure or vaccination, it is no longer "novel", and won't have as strong of an impact on the population.

    That doesn't mean we don't have more to learn, though I'd contend that we know more about COVID now than all but the most common viral diseases.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    You wrote just 2 posts ago that protection is most certainly not permanent.
    Full protection is not permanent. That's also why I said "fractional immunity". The protection won't be strong enough to make you immune, but any prior exposure should help mitigate your reaction to a new infection. You can get sick again, but your odds of serious reaction go way down.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  20. #22840
    Quote Originally Posted by Tuor View Post
    Actually, i agree with Phaelix this one time. we still don't know if the vaccines prevents infections or it just reduces the symptoms. We also don't know how long the effects of the vaccine last, could be a year or even less.
    We do know it prevents the spread of infections, since countries with high rates of vaccination are showing a larger decline in case-numbers.

    If people got infected as before in e.g., Israel, but just didn't show symptoms then case numbers would be down about 50% due to the rate of vaccination. They are down 95%. As far as I understand no new lockdown explains it and it is not due to the weather, since Lebanon doesn't show a similar decline. We don't know how much it reduces the spread; but we know the reduction is significant.

    - - - Updated - - -

    And another study indicating that 10% of mild cases have long term effects.

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-...ld-covid-.html
    The most common long-term symptoms (10 months) were loss of smell and taste, fatigue, and respiratory problems.
    ...
    However, we do not see an increased prevalence of cognitive symptoms such as brain fatigue, memory and concentration problems or physical disorders such as muscle and joint pain, heart palpitations or long-term fever.

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