1. #23201
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    That one has been obvious since 03/2020 for me and some other posters here.
    There was the mild hope that immunity lasts longer but alas it was not to be.

    I do wonder whether we will ever get rid of these annoying masks in busses and indoors or whether permanent mask usage in public transport will be the norm.
    What vaccine efficacy duration were you hoping for? As far as I know, no one has a definitive answer on how long the mRNA vaccine will last. The only thing we know for sure is that six months from the second shot vaccine recipients still have the elevated antibodies. However, there are more to the story. Unlike conventional vaccines, the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines have two mechanism for preventing infection. The first involves the production of antibodies like the typical vaccine; the second involves the induction of responses in memory B and T cells—immune cells that retain information for future reference. That second mechanism is the one that may allow the body to generate its own antibodies to fight off different variants of virus. Also, it may allows the body to keep fighting the disease, even after the antibodies level wane, for an extended period of 2 to 3 years. Time will tell. We are in uncharted territory right now.

  2. #23202
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    What vaccine efficacy duration were you hoping for? As far as I know, no one has a definitive answer on how long the mRNA vaccine will last. The only thing we know for sure is that six months from the second shot vaccine recipients still have the elevated antibodies. However, there are more to the story. Unlike conventional vaccines, the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines have two mechanism for preventing infection. The first involves the production of antibodies like the typical vaccine; the second involves the induction of responses in memory B and T cells—immune cells that retain information for future reference. That second mechanism is the one that may allow the body to generate its own antibodies to fight off different variants of virus.
    I know that it has been talked a lot regarding covid-vaccines, but I don't see that it's a new mechanism for these vaccines - many older vaccines also provide protection for years, decades or more (childhood vaccines being an obvious example); so they must rely on it even if people hadn't understood the mechanism at that time.

    The problem is that it doesn't help that much if the virus has mutated too much (it's a sliding scale); and we know that for other coronaviruses (that give milder infections) reinfections start to appear after 6 months to a year.

  3. #23203
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    I know that it has been talked a lot regarding covid-vaccines, but I don't see that it's a new mechanism for these vaccines - many older vaccines also provide protection for years, decades or more (childhood vaccines being an obvious example); so they must rely on it even if people hadn't understood the mechanism at that time.

    The problem is that it doesn't help that much if the virus has mutated too much (it's a sliding scale); and we know that for other coronaviruses (that give milder infections) reinfections start to appear after 6 months to a year.
    Unless they are only trying to bump their stock up.

    Immunity from Moderna Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine should last at least a year, the company said on Monday at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare conference.

    I'll need to dig the article about UCSD research showing that the Moderna vaccine is shown to be effective against the South African and British variants. Pending results on the Indian variant.

  4. #23204
    Hm... Something interesting that I noticed.
    At the start of the pandemic many countries (rich and poor) under-counted deaths; and some still do (Egypt, Russia, Mexico, Peru, and the slightly the US) - India isn't listed below, but I'm confident that they also under-counting a lot.

    However, looking at https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...deaths-tracker I noticed something new:

    Many rich countries, especially in Europe, now have more covid-deaths than excess-deaths. It's likely that some of it is due to some dying that were half a year away from dying anyway (and half a year has passed now), and some of if it due to a reduction in other deaths due to precautions (the flu disappeared this year) - and even that the number of suicides decreased for unclear reasons.

    However, it may also be that some of the covid-deaths are cases where covid was just one of the many contributing factors (but even if covid-deaths are 20% smaller in Europe the undercounting in the rest of the world is a lot more severe). But don't try to claim that it is the case in the US or Russia.

  5. #23205
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    Vaccine reluctance is definitely a factor. Especially in rural areas.

    However, convenience is also a big factor. When I received my vaccination at RiteAid, my appointment was 10:24 am and that was my only choice. The appointment for the second shot was texted to me without the option to reschedule. In my case I just told my secretary that I will be late coming in that morning. For retail, fast food or farm workers that may not be an option. I also heard that the wait time on some of the large vaccinations centers was hour-long.
    Just so we're clear regarding the bold;

    That's due to exploitative and abusive employers who would rather squeeze a couple extra hours of labor out of their staff even if that means that employee gets sick and dies. The employer's convenience is ranked as more important than the employee's health and safety.

    Any employer behaving like that should see their business crumble around them. They're ticks on the asses of humanity.

  6. #23206
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    Vaccine reluctance is definitely a factor. Especially in rural areas.

    However, convenience is also a big factor. When I received my vaccination at RiteAid, my appointment was 10:24 am and that was my only choice. The appointment for the second shot was texted to me without the option to reschedule. In my case I just told my secretary that I will be late coming in that morning. For retail, fast food or farm workers that may not be an option. I also heard that the wait time on some of the large vaccinations centers was hour-long.

    Another hurdle is the entire appointment process was completely automated. Those with limited digital access and literacy will probably have problems. When I talked to one of the girl at RiteAid pharmacy counter, she told me that they received a lot complaints about people struggling to get appointment through the website.

    Making it more convenient would be a step forward. I would have preferred to get the vaccine from my primary care doctor with whom I had a 30 years relationship. Rather than some pharmacist at RiteAid that barely grunted an acknowledgement at me before he plunged the needle into my left arm. He was definitely in a hurry to get back to his actual job.
    Yikes. Our state went full VAMS system and almost every major organization and the state went all in.
    It coordinated the schedule across hundreds of sites and i was able to very easily change my 2nd apt twice with a huge selection after work hours.

    I do agree though they are going to have to step up the apt availabilities after 5pm and on weekends. going to be a huge cost but its going to help whom is left.

    Or mandate paid time off for vaccination. We've given a lot of businesses a lot of money during COVID they could at least pay some of it back by allowing people to get vaccinated.
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  7. #23207
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    Or mandate paid time off for vaccination. We've given a lot of businesses a lot of money during COVID they could at least pay some of it back by allowing people to get vaccinated.
    You're more likely to see businesses tell people that they need to get the vaccine on their own time or in the anecdotal example of Union Pacific Railroad that even if the person catches COVID they will no longer be paying for the time off, even if the employee can prove they contracted the disease at work.
    “You're not to be so blind with patriotism that you can't face reality. Wrong is wrong, no matter who does it or says it.”― Malcolm X

  8. #23208
    One of my nephew got his vaccine because he worked for DoorDash while going to school. I heard that, before CA opened vaccination to everybody, a lot of young people signed up to be DoorDash and UberEats delivery driver just to get vaccinated.

    Also, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Trinity counties are now in yellow tier. Marin almost made it but then had a last minute surge. Zip code 92037 in San Diego, which includes La Jolla, has 98.9% vaccination rate. La Jolla in San Diego is what Beverly Hills is in Los Angeles. Just not as much bling. More understated.

    Latest numbers: Almost two-third of CA adults (not population) have received at least one vaccine shot, the number of new daily cases is down to 3.78 per 100,000 people, and state-wide positivity rate is 1.1%.
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2021-05-04 at 10:27 PM.

  9. #23209
    The Insane Masark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    Any employer behaving like that should see their business crumble around them. They're ticks on the asses of humanity.
    Nah, no reason to destroy the business.

    Immediately seize it and transfer the ownership to the employees.

    Warning : Above post may contain snark and/or sarcasm. Try reparsing with the /s argument before replying.
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  10. #23210
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Hm... Something interesting that I noticed.
    At the start of the pandemic many countries (rich and poor) under-counted deaths; and some still do (Egypt, Russia, Mexico, Peru, and the slightly the US) - India isn't listed below, but I'm confident that they also under-counting a lot.

    However, looking at https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...deaths-tracker I noticed something new:

    Many rich countries, especially in Europe, now have more covid-deaths than excess-deaths. It's likely that some of it is due to some dying that were half a year away from dying anyway (and half a year has passed now), and some of if it due to a reduction in other deaths due to precautions (the flu disappeared this year) - and even that the number of suicides decreased for unclear reasons.

    However, it may also be that some of the covid-deaths are cases where covid was just one of the many contributing factors (but even if covid-deaths are 20% smaller in Europe the undercounting in the rest of the world is a lot more severe). But don't try to claim that it is the case in the US or Russia.
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Hm... Something interesting that I noticed.
    At the start of the pandemic many countries (rich and poor) under-counted deaths; and some still do (Egypt, Russia, Mexico, Peru, and the slightly the US) - India isn't listed below, but I'm confident that they also under-counting a lot.

    However, looking at https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...deaths-tracker I noticed something new:

    Many rich countries, especially in Europe, now have more covid-deaths than excess-deaths. It's likely that some of it is due to some dying that were half a year away from dying anyway (and half a year has passed now), and some of if it due to a reduction in other deaths due to precautions (the flu disappeared this year) - and even that the number of suicides decreased for unclear reasons.

    However, it may also be that some of the covid-deaths are cases where covid was just one of the many contributing factors (but even if covid-deaths are 20% smaller in Europe the undercounting in the rest of the world is a lot more severe). But don't try to claim that it is the case in the US or Russia.
    The number IS being under-counted for very simple reasons. When Trump politicized the COVID-19 outbreak, downplaying it, claiming it was a hoax, will go away, etc. because he was concerned it would affect his re-election chances, it set-off a political cascade that we are still feeling today. Once that happened his supporters were VERY against any sort of admission that a death is related to COVID, and are most of the anti-vaxxer crowd today. That effect wasn't limited to the US, that negative impact of downplaying it and losing time unfortunately was global and is hitting India now.

    This is something I saw happen firsthand. A person I was close to died of COVID last fall, but the family was incredibly adamant that they did NOT want COVID listed as the cause of death. It's simple human nature to be reluctant to admit being wrong, and a MAGA family admitting that all their Facebook arguments against COVID were a lie, or admitting that their god-like leader mislead them, was never going to happen. Even when those lies caused a death in their own family. They still clung to "I guess God called them home", rather than admit they were wrong. So I know of 1 case personally where 100% COVID killed the person, but the family demanded that another minor underlying health problem (which definitely did not kill them) be listed as the cause instead. There isn't an autopsy usually in these cases and the coroner in this case was not going to fight the family on it.

    I understand that's only 1 case. Maybe this was a rare outlier. But knowing families and the ultra-polarized political state today, throwing in the emotions of a death in the family, and some families having differing political stances between different family members, and you can start to see how at least some of the families of the dead have been reluctant to admit COVID as the cause or even bring it into the discussion at the time of death. But it's been 6 months since that person's funeral and that family is still towing the line that 'it was god's time', rather than admit going to large gatherings maskless during a pandemic and pre-vaccines probably wasn't a good idea.

  11. #23211
    Quote Originally Posted by Biglog View Post
    The number IS being under-counted for very simple reasons. When Trump politicized the COVID-19 outbreak, downplaying it, claiming it was a hoax, will go away, etc. because he was concerned it would affect his re-election chances, it set-off a political cascade that we are still feeling today. Once that happened his supporters were VERY against any sort of admission that a death is related to COVID, and are most of the anti-vaxxer crowd today. That effect wasn't limited to the US, that negative impact of downplaying it and losing time unfortunately was global and is hitting India now.
    The US and many other countries were under-counting last year and many still are; and that's one of the reasons.
    Another is that they are overwhelmed by the deaths and don't have the capacity to keep track.
    I agree that it's likely the case in India, and it has surely been the case in Russia, Mexico, and Kazakhstan (3k reported dead from covid-19, and 37k excess deaths - for "reasons").

    What I noticed was something new in primarily richer European countries: something that looks like a minor over-counting of covid-19 deaths; for the reasons listed.

  12. #23212
    I know in the UK we had a report that said something like 25% of the total deaths were people that died with covid and not of covid. I'm still a little unsure though of how exactly this is defined. From my understanding, technically like the flu, nobody dies of covid in the strictist sense. Covid weakens the body's ability to deal with something else like pneumonia and it is that what kills them but that only happened because of covid so it's really a covid death.

    I think the official stance of the UK is anyone that died within 28 days of a positive test which would appear to be fallible
    Last edited by caractacus; 2021-05-05 at 07:40 PM.

  13. #23213
    Quote Originally Posted by caractacus View Post
    From my understanding, nobody dies of covid in the strictist sense.
    Wrong.

    /10char
    Last edited by szechuan; 2021-05-05 at 10:07 PM.
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  14. #23214
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    Quote Originally Posted by caractacus View Post
    I know in the UK we had a report that said something like 25% of the total deaths were people that died with covid and not of covid. I'm still a little unsure though of how exactly this is defined. From my understanding, technically like the flu, nobody dies of covid in the strictist sense. Covid weakens the body's ability to deal with something else like pneumonia and it is that what kills them but that only happened because of covid so it's really a covid death.

    I think the official stance of the UK is anyone that died within 28 days of a positive test which would appear to be fallible
    That’s like arguing you don’t die from gun shot wounds, but from inability to stop the bleeding.
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  15. #23215
    Quote Originally Posted by caractacus View Post
    I know in the UK we had a report that said something like 25% of the total deaths were people that died with covid and not of covid.
    It also depends on which group and when (since the care has improved; but can be overwhelmed during waves).

    I saw one study of the frail that indicated 15% died of covid-19, 15% died of other causes while infected, and in 70% of the cases covid-19 was one of the contributing factor. For less frail persons other causes should be less common.

    Quote Originally Posted by caractacus View Post
    I'm still a little unsure though of how exactly this is defined. From my understanding, technically like the flu, nobody dies of covid in the strictist sense. Covid weakens the body's ability to deal with something else like pneumonia and it is that what kills them but that only happened because of covid so it's really a covid death.
    Pneumonia is an infection of the lungs, and even if the infected have weakened immune-system and can get a bacterial pneumonia when weakened they also commonly get a viral pneumonia directly by influenza virus, coronaviruses (including Sars-Cov-2), rhino-viruses (otherwise causing the common cold) and some additional ones when infected with them.

  16. #23216
    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    That’s like arguing you don’t die from gun shot wounds, but from inability to stop the bleeding.
    I'm not arguing that covid deaths aren't covid deaths I am just suggesting that there is a level of ambiguity there. I don't really like the gun comparison but I'll play along. If somebody was shot in the arm and survived but later on the would became infected which lead to their death from blood poisoning how would you describe that death? Would you say death by gun shot wound, death by blood poisoning or death by blood poisoning from a gun shot wound? Because if you just said "gun shot wound" that sounds like you are being economical with the truth.
    Last edited by caractacus; 2021-05-06 at 10:22 AM.

  17. #23217
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    If he didn't get shot, he wouldn't get blood poisoning.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
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  18. #23218
    Quote Originally Posted by Hansworst View Post
    If he didn't get shot, he wouldn't get blood poisoning.
    I don't disagree with this.

    I would say that technically you can get blood poisoning from other sources so you would have to demonstrate the link but I said in my example it lead to their death so to say otherwise in this instance would be bad faith on my part.

  19. #23219
    Quote Originally Posted by caractacus View Post
    I don't disagree with this.

    I would say that technically you can get blood poisoning from other sources so you would have to demonstrate the link.
    And people have demonstrated that COVID deaths are from COVID.
    Americans are the Chinese of the west. The main reason people tolerate them is because they are too big to ignore.

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  20. #23220
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by caractacus View Post
    I'm not arguing that covid deaths aren't covid deaths I am just suggesting that there is a level of ambiguity there. I don't really like the gun comparison but I'll play along. If somebody was shot in the arm and survived but later on the would became infected which lead to their death from blood poisoning how would you describe that death? Would you say death by gun shot wound, death by blood poisoning or death by blood poisoning from a gun shot wound? Because if you just said "gun shot wound" that sounds like you are being economical with the truth.
    The infection is a complication from that bullet wound. It's still "getting shot" that caused his death. This is medically definitive.

    It's like trying to argue that all deaths are technically due to cardiac arrest, because the patient's heart inevitably stops before they're considered dead. It's not a reasonable approach.

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