1. #23921
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tuor View Post
    Vaccines do NOT stop infection, look at the UK or my country, Portugal, for God's sake the numbers are higher today then they were last year at the peak of the pandemic in April. They do reduce the amount of severe cases and consequently the amount of deaths.
    Per studies, there was 60-90% less viral material found in infected persons throats after being fully vaccinated.
    That being coupled with a ~ 70% chance that the virus is neutralized before it can take hold and actually infect you to a significant degree.
    No, they do not stop the spread but they reduce it significantly.

    Delta (predominantly now in GB) is far more aggressive/infectious than what we had last year, coupled with us testing a crapton more than we did last year.
    There are your higher numbers.

  2. #23922
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Per studies, there was 60-90% less viral material found in infected persons throats after being fully vaccinated.
    That being coupled with a ~ 70% chance that the virus is neutralized before it can take hold and actually infect you to a significant degree.
    No, they do not stop the spread but they reduce it significantly.

    Delta (predominantly now in GB) is far more aggressive/infectious than what we had last year, coupled with us testing a crapton more than we did last year.
    There are your higher numbers.
    The bolded is the important sentence, and it is being confirmed by unpleasant news from Israel.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/othe...yjQ?li=BBnb7Kz

    Title: Pfizer Shot Halts Severe Illness in Israel as Delta Spreads

    The title is selling the good news.

    Pfizer Inc.’s Covid-19 vaccine appears to be less effective in halting the spread of the delta strain of the virus, though it is shielding against severe illness, according to data from Israel’s government.
    OK the good news is actually quite good. The delta variant is being studied in Israel due to their state of the art testing techniques - and of course the desire to actually find out what the real information is. In the US, so much of our media reports works to hide important details that the author disagrees with.

    The vaccine protected 64% of people against the illness between June 6 and early July, down from 94% between May 2 and June 5, the Ynet news website reported, citing Health Ministry numbers. The drop in effectiveness coincides with the government lifting virus restrictions at the start of June, just as the new variant was beginning to make inroads.
    Here is the important news. The vaccine PLUS SOCIAL DISTANCING = 94% effective against the delta variant. The vaccine WITHOUT masks and social distancing = 64% protection. In short, social distancing means the vaccine defeats even the delta variant. No social distancing means the delta variant finally starts to win a few and infect people.

    And back to some good news. Vaccine WITHOUT masks and social distances only increases your chance of being hospitalized slightly.

    The data cited by Ynet also offered some positive news on the shot, showing that it is protecting against severe illness. The effectiveness at preventing hospitalization dipped only slightly to 93% from 98% in those periods.
    From what I can tell, this is the best data that exists in the world about how effective vaccines are against the delta variant.

    Of course, the delta plus variant is right around the corner.

    My take on it is: we need vaccines PLUS social distancing and mask wearing. Yesterday's July 4th celebrations made me a bit sick inside as I saw the seeds of the next virus wave right in front of my eyes. I watched it on TV until I couldn't stand it anymore. Football season is in another month anyways, which is when I was expecting the next wave to be started, with noticeable increases starting a month or two after that. July 4th will get the ball rolling a bit faster.
    Last edited by Omega10; 2021-07-05 at 04:40 PM.

  3. #23923
    Quote Originally Posted by Tuor View Post
    I enphased the reality, the amount o protection its still yet to be determined. But we can see countries with high vaccination rates having hight contagious rates (Portugal, UK, Emirates), also from Portugal, there are reports of people with the 2 shots that went to ICU.
    It's difficult to say from that information, as it depends on which vaccine and whether people actually got the vaccine.

    For the vaccines:
    Chile is also in that list, but used one of the Chinese vaccines (Sinovac) - which doesn't work well from the start.
    UAE has a mix of vaccines Sinopharm, Pfizer, Sputnik V, and Moderna. The uk also used a lot of AstraZeneca vaccine that seems to be less efficient against some variants.

    And on top of that for many of the countries, including the uk and Portugal, it's unclear what percentage of the infected is fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated, or not vaccinated at all.

  4. #23924
    Pit Lord Tuor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    It's difficult to say from that information, as it depends on which vaccine and whether people actually got the vaccine.

    For the vaccines:
    Chile is also in that list, but used one of the Chinese vaccines (Sinovac) - which doesn't work well from the start.
    UAE has a mix of vaccines Sinopharm, Pfizer, Sputnik V, and Moderna. The uk also used a lot of AstraZeneca vaccine that seems to be less efficient against some variants.

    And on top of that for many of the countries, including the uk and Portugal, it's unclear what percentage of the infected is fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated, or not vaccinated at all.
    I won't put my hands on fire because i can't confirm the veracity of this, but i'm puting the link anyway.
    https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/...86430386491392


  5. #23925
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    To me all this information makes it out that Pfizer is still pretty effective against the delta variant, even if it does mean getting a third shot to even improve the odds.

    I do wonder how this actually stacks up against other vaccines, if you can even effectively quantify the effectiveness in such a manner considering how complex human bodies are and how many factors can be in play.
    “My philosophy is: It’s none of my business what people say of me and think of me. I am what I am and I do what I do. I expect nothing and accept everything. And it makes life so much easier.
    ― Anthony Hopkins

  6. #23926
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    My take on it is: we need vaccines PLUS social distancing and mask wearing.
    No we don't.
    People getting sick is of no consequence at all unless the sickness is severe.
    Since the vaccines take care of the severe part, a few more infected won't be a problem.

    We cannot socially distance for the rest of our lives, most people (not me, basement dweller here :P ) would go nuts.

  7. #23927
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    No we don't.
    People getting sick is of no consequence at all unless the sickness is severe.
    Since the vaccines take care of the severe part, a few more infected won't be a problem.

    We cannot socially distance for the rest of our lives, most people (not me, basement dweller here :P ) would go nuts.
    If we have multiple events like the fourth of July celebrations that we had yesterday with large crowds and no masks and no social distancing at all, then the virus will enter yet another wave and people will start having to go to the hospital. Israel dropped masks and social distancing, and it did not take long for the delta variant to make its presence known. There is likely to be an epsilon variant and a gamma variant and a theta variant over time, and it is not clear at all what new challenges they will bring about.

    When football season starts in the US, which is in about 2 months (early September), there will be stadiums across the country just full of people, and many of them in places with low vaccination rates. If we are lucky, 8 weeks of the season will get played before the spread of the virus basically shuts down the rest of the season. With the July 4th celebrations possibly kick starting the next wave, it might be less than 8.

    The people have spoken. They have chosen 100% full in on your view of reality. I hope I am wrong.

    And if you book mark this and dance around and brag and shout out to me YOU WERE WRONG AND I WAS RIGHT - I'll be quite happy

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Tuor View Post
    I won't put my hands on fire because i can't confirm the veracity of this, but i'm puting the link anyway.
    https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/...86430386491392
    Yeah, the Israeli claim is detailed two posts previously:

    Here is the important news. The vaccine PLUS SOCIAL DISTANCING = 94% effective against the delta variant. The vaccine WITHOUT masks and social distancing = 64% protection. In short, social distancing means the vaccine defeats even the delta variant. No social distancing means the delta variant finally starts to win a few and infect people.
    Is this completely accurate? No one really knows. What is clear is that it was not that long ago that Israel was a model country as far as dealing with the virus. Now they are starting to get cases and hospitalizations.

    The source of the data seems to be the Israeli government.

    From the article:

    Pfizer Inc.’s vaccine was less effective at keeping people from getting the coronavirus in Israel in recent weeks, but it continues to provide a strong shield against severe Covid-19, according to government data.

  8. #23928
    Quote Originally Posted by Tuor View Post
    I won't put my hands on fire because i can't confirm the veracity of this, but i'm puting the link anyway.
    https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/...86430386491392
    What the 64% efficiency mean is highly unclear, and it's not exactly 64% but some unknown confidence interval around that - which means it is even less clear - previous estimates for the Pfizer against the Delta-variant was 80-90%.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    There is likely to be an epsilon variant and a gamma variant and a theta variant over time, and it is not clear at all what new challenges they will bring about.
    Yes, but: Gamma is Brazilian variant, we haven't seen that it's such a problem as Delta. It goes Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta.
    Epsilon to Lambda exist but are variants of interest and thus not as problematic as than Alpha-Delta (the new naming scheme is kind of bad).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    We cannot socially distance for the rest of our lives, most people (not me, basement dweller here :P ) would go nuts.
    True, but there might be a middle-ground - where people don't all think that either there's a lockdown miles from each other, or they pack together and sing loudly indoors looking at some confused persons chasing a round-ish object and playing beer-pong.

  9. #23929
    I am Murloc! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Well, we've reached another grim milestone: the death toll passed 4 million today, according to worldometers. Obviously, the real number is much, much higher, so this is largely a meaningless milestone anyway.

    The worst part, though, is that even with vaccinations heavily underway worldwide, new case counts have started increasing again, undoubtedly due to the rise of the delta variant.




    I had really hoped that the decline from the spike this spring would continue its downward trajectory. I also shudder to think what this graph would look like if the vaccines had not yet been developed.

    Stay safe and don't be stupid.


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    and genius is that genius has its limits."

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  10. #23930
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    True, but there might be a middle-ground - where people don't all think that either there's a lockdown miles from each other, or they pack together and sing loudly indoors looking at some confused persons chasing a round-ish object and playing beer-pong.
    *chuckles* I've never seen the appeal either but apparently some people do.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    new case counts
    Again: "new case count" in a vaccinated population is not that much of an issue. We have to wait and see how hospitalizations and deaths fare.

    Also keep in mind that vaccination efforts in most of the world is not even remotely comparable to that of the western world. I read yesterday that India has like 4% of fully vaccinated people. So expecting a continuous downward trend in such a scenario is misguided. We will see a lot more waves in that diagram before this show is over, if ever.

  11. #23931
    I am Murloc! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Again: "new case count" in a vaccinated population is not that much of an issue.
    Again: It really is an issue. New case counts should be way down in areas with significant vaccinations. The fact that they're not means that delta is ripping through the non-vaccinated population like wildfire.


    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Also keep in mind that vaccination efforts in most of the world is not even remotely comparable to that of the western world. I read yesterday that India has like 4% of fully vaccinated people. So expecting a continuous downward trend in such a scenario is misguided.
    And yet the trend was downward. Fairly steeply, too. To go from that to not just a shallower downward curve, but an upward curve is not a good sign.

    And there have been 3 billion vaccine doses administered worldwide that weren't there during the winter spike. It was not unreasonable to hope that we'd continue to see a downward curve from here on out, even if the curve fluctuated between shallower and deeper.


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    and genius is that genius has its limits."

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  12. #23932
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Per studies, there was 60-90% less viral material found in infected persons throats after being fully vaccinated.
    That being coupled with a ~ 70% chance that the virus is neutralized before it can take hold and actually infect you to a significant degree.
    No, they do not stop the spread but they reduce it significantly.

    Delta (predominantly now in GB) is far more aggressive/infectious than what we had last year, coupled with us testing a crapton more than we did last year.
    There are your higher numbers.
    delta is on the rise everywhere, now in the netherlands as well - just about starting our third wave here.
    and ofc there's no longer a lockdown, so it'll spread fast too.

  13. #23933
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Also keep in mind that vaccination efforts in most of the world is not even remotely comparable to that of the western world. I read yesterday that India has like 4% of fully vaccinated people. So expecting a continuous downward trend in such a scenario is misguided. We will see a lot more waves in that diagram before this show is over, if ever.
    But India also have a large fraction of the population that have had covid - which also gives some form of protection, and the latest peak was 2 months ago - maybe that was herd immunity in the slums kicking in.

    In several cities antibodies were found in more than 50% of the population last year (especially in slums), and generally 20% in India had detectable antibodies before the latest wave - https://www.wionews.com/india-news/s...19-icmr-361417

    And as in many other countries the numbers now and earlier aren't fully comparable as the testing capacity is increasing.

  14. #23934
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    But India also have a large fraction of the population that have had covid - which also gives some form of protection, and the latest peak was 2 months ago - maybe that was herd immunity in the slums kicking in.

    In several cities antibodies were found in more than 50% of the population last year (especially in slums), and generally 20% in India had detectable antibodies before the latest wave - https://www.wionews.com/india-news/s...19-icmr-361417

    And as in many other countries the numbers now and earlier aren't fully comparable as the testing capacity is increasing.
    India is an interesting one because I remember back in May the media were going wild saying that India was heading for a catastrophe and reporting on the steep rise in cases then suddenly we hit June and there was radio silence so I don't know what happened there.
    I have been hearing bits about a drug called Ivermectin that has apparently been used in India. I'm not suggesting at all that this drug has had anything to do with what has has happened there but I did see that Oxford University are currently testing it out. The media in general have been pretty censorious when it has come to alternative treatments for covid and I can sort of see why but the whole way they have operated throughout this pandemic has been very concerning for me.

  15. #23935
    I am Murloc! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    But India also have a large fraction of the population that have had covid - which also gives some form of protection, and the latest peak was 2 months ago - maybe that was herd immunity in the slums kicking in.

    In several cities antibodies were found in more than 50% of the population last year (especially in slums), and generally 20% in India had detectable antibodies before the latest wave - https://www.wionews.com/india-news/s...19-icmr-361417

    And as in many other countries the numbers now and earlier aren't fully comparable as the testing capacity is increasing.
    Median age in India is also 29, unlike the US (39), the UK (41), Spain (44), Italy (47), Germany (48), etc. Their numbers are far worse than are actually being reported, but they'd be even worse if their population were age-distributed like much of the rest of the developed world.

    For that matter, we should keep in mind that Israel's median age is only 30.


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  16. #23936
    The Unstoppable Force Orange Joe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    *chuckles* I've never seen the appeal either but apparently some people do.

    - - - Updated - - -


    Again: "new case count" in a vaccinated population is not that much of an issue. We have to wait and see how hospitalizations and deaths fare.

    Also keep in mind that vaccination efforts in most of the world is not even remotely comparable to that of the western world. I read yesterday that India has like 4% of fully vaccinated people. So expecting a continuous downward trend in such a scenario is misguided. We will see a lot more waves in that diagram before this show is over, if ever.
    You do understand how viruses can mutate right?
    I have a fan. Seems he was permabanned.
    Yo, don't mind my "street talk"

  17. #23937
    Just as delta is becoming the dominant variant we’re seeing lambda on the rise. Thus far the vaccines seem to be working, but with each new mutation the chances one evades vaccine protection goes up. Morons who are refusing to get vaccinated are going to be the incubators for these mutations and all I can say is, get the jab morons.

  18. #23938
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Again: It really is an issue. New case counts should be way down in areas with significant vaccinations. The fact that they're not means that delta is ripping through the non-vaccinated population like wildfire.
    Which is irrelevant if all it causes if a bit of sniffles.
    Thousands of Viruses "rip through the population like wildfire" every year. The only reason why we even care about SARS-CoV-2 is because it put a ton of people into our hospitals (more than they can handle) and killed a bunch of old folks. If that is taken care of by the vaccine (more data needed as of yet but it looks that way, so far) then all is well.

    I really do not get what is so hard to understand about this.

  19. #23939
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Which is irrelevant if all it causes if a bit of sniffles.
    Thousands of Viruses "rip through the population like wildfire" every year.
    And the callous attitude we as a society have towards diseases that do this (like influenza) is a bad thing, you do get that right?

    "Being a selfish cunt was the default therefore it should remain the default" is a bad argument.
    Every heartwarming human interest story in America is like "he raised $20,000 to keep 200 orphans from being crushed in the orphan-crushing machine" and then never asks why an orphan-crushing machine exists or why you'd need to pay to prevent it from being used.

    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    so ? Teacher is about teaching, not education.

  20. #23940
    The Insane Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    And yet the trend was downward. Fairly steeply, too. To go from that to not just a shallower downward curve, but an upward curve is not a good sign.
    It's what we should expect, every time a new variant comes out after all most people on this planet are NOT vaccinated and will not be for quite some time.
    And even if they are, the main point of vaccinations is not prevention of infection but rather prevention of serious cases / deaths.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    And the callous attitude we as a society have towards diseases that do this (like influenza) is a bad thing, you do get that right?
    Uhuh.. suddenly, huh?
    It apparently was okay for decades, since no one except medical personnel ever gave a fuck.

    No, I don't think it's a bad thing, we cannot go nuts (masks, lockdown, social distancing etc) about every virus out there. Might as well start using robot surrogates for everything that happens outdoors.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas82 View Post
    get the jab morons.
    Absolutely.
    I've read today that our officials estimate the "vaccine unwilling population" at around 10%.
    They said that these people will eventually be immunized by contracting the disease and that they do not pose much of a problem.

    Currently they are more worried about adolescents because STIKO (the dudes that check vaccines for safety here) do not recommend unconditional vaccination in that age group.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Orange Joe View Post
    You do understand how viruses can mutate right?
    I do. We can adapt our vaccines. (Which is probably where annual boosters come in)
    Your point?

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