Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Spectral]

"Both sides"-ing Trump administration responses not only to this, but to economic, electoral, and social issues that have been part of the public debate. A great example of this is the elimination of the White House Pandemic Response Team in 2018, a group of scientists specialized in monitoring diseases around the globe to ensure the US can proactively restrict the spread of diseases into North America.

Had we had this group working with WHO, this emergency declaration would of been ordered in Mid-January, ports of entry would of had sophisticated monitoring/screen protocols in place by mid-February, and this would of been largely an economic hit, not a full scale societal lockdown due to the political machinations of the White House not wanting to have more testing for the general population to hurt their re-election chances.

Conservatives both in government and in public have not admonished the administration for that, and I've yet to hear it from you, because even among the litany of scandals, incompetence, and equivocating by the administration, the one I just spoke about will lead to hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations, and thousands of deaths.

I do not favor that change and will straightforwardly condemn it here - scrapping integrated teams and diplomatic efforts with regard to international science and medicine is flatly stupid. More broadly, these are the areas that I think the current administration is weakest and where I have my strongest lines of disagreement. We've lost institutional, cultural, and political capital in a fashion that I consider unacceptable.

I don't think we disagree on any of the substance on this topic. My only qualm with you here is that I think you took an unwarranted cheap shot at me in this thread that isn't based on any position I actually hold or have suggested that I hold.

[Grand Phoenix]

Looks like the panic buying craziness has finally hit my town. My father went out to Wal-Mart yesterday and said the lines were so long they went as far back as the frozen foods and meats section (and for added context, this Wal-Mart is the second biggest in the country). Everyone was wearing masks and most of the store was wiped out. He got what he could, so we're set for the next couple weeks; we don't want to throwdown people for toilet paper, they can have them.

Although sadly, he's bought into the rhetoric that the Democrats bio-engineered COVID-19 because they're pissed that Trump didn't get kicked out of office after his impeachment. Yesterday he believed it came from bats after religiously watching "Contagion" and latched onto the idea until his older brother my uncle told him on Facebook this morning about how this is all a ploy by the Dems and the liberals to get revenge on the Republicans. Because, in his opinion, he hasn't seen these satellite pictures of the mass graves Iran is digging up, no pictures of bodies anywhere on TV or online, so therefore it's all "fake news" to whip people into a panicked frenzy.

My father is a simple-minded man, but he, his brother, and his brother's wife (a retired nurse) - all three Republicans (my father may as well be one now; he's head over heels in love with Trump) - are lost causes. I can't convince them.

[Rogue Karl]

says who? you?

Yes me?

Do you commonly post in the third person or something?

[PhaelixWW]

No.

Hmm. Brilliant comeback.

Obviously - but it's not fair to call it a "guess" either.

Well, you literally quoted only the line in which I talk about the herd immunity threshold equation. I never referred to that as a guess. I referred to it as "a guideline" and later as "a chart that is at best an approximation".

seems to have hit you.

As a joke? Sure. As I said, I find it hilarious.

I've done very little ITT aside from dealing with this from a scientific and rational standpoint. Arguing the opposite is absurd.

To show that you think rationally don't just dismiss numbers as "guesses", but have natural curiosity to find out why they are used, don't just try to figure out facts to try to show that you were right after all.

I also think it's likewise hilarious that you somehow snipped out the entire seven paragraph section of my post that does PRECISELY that.

If you want to argue against any of the statements made in those paragraphs, feel free. Otherwise, your rebuttal lacks weight.

[Orbitus]

Yeah those shelves are just like that in failed socialist countries. That's their natural state.

Again, you and Trumpi have no fucking clue what socialist countries are like. Venezuela didn't fail because of socialism, it failed because of corruption.

[Pannonian]

Remember when the hakkar plague got loose in the game?

Think that data is being used in any of the projections for COVID?

As someone who has worked on the current models:

Probably not. We have much more relevant data (especially when it comes to flu-like viruses)

[Forogil]

Well, you literally quoted only the line in which I talk about the herd immunity threshold equation. I never referred to that as a guess. I referred to it as "a guideline" and later as "a chart that is at best an approximation".

Except you called it a guess, or even wild-assed-guess (WAG) and didn't mention herd immunity as if you didn't know that it was the basis for that estimate.

Here are you original quotes that you forgot:

That 70% is just a WAG, an arbitrary number to throw out that basically means "almost everyone is going to be infected".

Uh, no, sorry, it's still a WAG. Her actual quote was, "When the virus is out there, the population has no immunity and no therapy exists, then 60 to 70 percent of the population will be infected."

I mean, there's science that backs up the idea that it's likely to be most, but not all, of the population, but 70% as a specific number? Just a guess.

[kamuimac]

I live in a town in the north of Sweden called Umeå.
We have 8 Corona cases, all of whom have been to northern Italy, and all of whom are in quarantine at their homes.

We also have people stockpiling. Many shelves in many stores (especially the big ones) have giant gaps in them from where people have been plundering.

Whilst Corona is not "just a flu" (6% death rate vs 0.1% + the potency of spread), I fail to see why people UP HERE need to act like we're headed into WWIII...

6% mortality rate means that that if EU has +/- 500 mln citizens it could end up with 30 mln dead people.

you still fail to see why people treat it seriously ?

[Forogil]

6% mortality rate means that that if EU has +/- 500 mln citizens it could end up with 30 mln dead people.

you still fail to see why people treat it seriously ?

If it were that bad that would be really really serious.

However, the rate is likely closer to 1% of the infected, it's just that some countries (especially Italy) are poor at finding all of the infected, and other countries are now giving up on confirming cases.

Which on the other hand means that Italy doesn't have a "only" 15k infected, but at least 100k infected ("at least" since people don't die immediately; I guess some have modelled that in more detail and have better numbers).

Combined with the fact that everyone will not infected we are likely not looking at 30 million dead in the EU, but "only" 3 million - like the entire country of Lithuania.
But still bad, really bad. (Obviously there are and will be attempts at lowering that number.)

[Zan15]

Whoot Govt funded-paid sick time...umm....for everyone (who mostly have it already) but....ummm…

30+ million part timers and independent contactors.

That should slow the spread of....oh, never mind.

Can't let that cheap labor get, not cheap. Can't let them feel important enough to push for better employment protections
corporate overlords will get angry.


Sigh.

[Themius]

If it were that bad that would be really really serious.

However, the rate is likely closer to 1% of the infected, it's just that some countries (especially Italy) are poor at finding all of the infected, and other countries are now giving up on confirming cases.

Which on the other hand means that Italy doesn't have a "only" 15k infected, but at least 100k infected ("at least" since people don't die immediately; I guess some have modelled that in more detail and have better numbers).

Combined with the fact that everyone will not infected we are likely not looking at 30 million dead in the EU, but "only" 3 million - like the entire country of Lithuania.
But still bad, really bad. (Obviously there are and will be attempts at lowering that number.)

1% is not a small number either, and that is not the number.

Using 1%, if we go with the lower end of what Merkel thinks could happen concerning number infected.. you're looking at 3 million dead people.

[Daedius]

More flights getting stopped, US stopping flights to Ireland after this coming Monday... probably won't have a job in a month due to cut backs or unpaid leave. Quite a few people already quit not wanting just 4 hours working 3 days on 3 days off.

/woo

[Zan15]

I planned to go regular grocery shopping today but after seeing pics people were posting and discussing how bad it was at our local commissary today, I decided to wait till after the weekend. I’m not Mad Maxing it for food.

Not sure where you are but in the states most grocery stores and the big box stores start to get their normal "restock" influx sunday afternoon-Monday morning.

They stock up sunday after the places close into Monday morning. They don't do much stocking on Sat/Sunday outside of things like bread, milk and those short lived items because they don't want to interfere with their customers shopping experience.

My friends kid said they are going to be working overtime till the end of days re-stocking the shelves in the next month. Normally they only have to restock like 5% of the stores items at any given Monday morning, now its over 50%. 100% in many specific isles.

He's happy for the extra pay

[The Butt Witch]

Whoot Govt funded-paid sick time...umm....for everyone (who mostly have it already) but....ummm…

30+ million part timers and independent contactors.

That should slow the spread of....oh, never mind.

Can't let that cheap labor get, not cheap. Can't let them feel important enough to push for better employment protections
corporate overlords will get angry.


Sigh.

That's really funny coming from someone with that picture.

You do realize the corporations support mostly the Democratic party, right, especially the Internet corporations?
You do realize that corporations want unchecked migration because immigrants are cheap labor and they can also be abused at any time because they don't have other choices?

Nah, you don't, that's why you have the picture.

[Forogil]

1% is not a small number either, and that is not the number.

Using 1%, if we go with the lower end of what Merkel thinks could happen concerning number infected.. you're looking at 3 million dead people.

Yes, I recall writing that number in the post you quoted, I even compared it to the population of Lithuania.

The about 1% is based on data from S. Korea (which based on their excessive testing should be reliable), and from Report 4 from Imperial College; and you will see it quoted in serious news articles.

[Trassk]

lets celebrate as china had dealt with the virus.

And all it takes to do so is treat its people like disposable vermin.

[The Butt Witch]

lets celebrate as china had dealt with the virus.

And all it takes to do so is treat its people like disposable vermin.

And also to lie to your own people and to the international community...A LOT!

This is likely also a lie.

[Rogue Karl]

Whoot Govt funded-paid sick time...umm....for everyone (who mostly have it already) but....ummm…

30+ million part timers and independent contactors.

That should slow the spread of....oh, never mind.

Can't let that cheap labor get, not cheap. Can't let them feel important enough to push for better employment protections
corporate overlords will get angry.


Sigh.

How many people are you funding to take time off?

[breadisfunny]

Man, this turned out to be a really awkward time to run out of paper towels. It wasn't until I got to the store that I remembered, "wait, isn't there a meme about this..." and sure enough, god damn idiots have cleaned. every. store. out. What do you jerks think is going to happen that you need a lifetime supply of paper god damn towels?! WAL-MART DOESN'T CLOSE FOR CHRISTMAS OR THANKSGIVING, YOU THINK THEY'RE GOING TO STOP SELLING YOU PAPER TOWELS OVER A VIRUS?

Glad Apple shut down all their stores though. That's a virus transmission vector if I've ever seen one. You don't see raves as packed as an Apple store. All those gummy screens people put their gross hands on, too. I saw a kid lick an iPhone once. Gah.

kids will lick anything you put in front of them they have no concept of how that relates to getting sick.

[The Butt Witch]

kids will lick anything you put in front of them they have no concept of how that relates to getting sick.

Get this. I was in the bus. A few meters away there were these kids, teenagers, holding bags of crackers in their left hands and using the right hand to hold on to the handlebars in the bus AND to pick up chips from the bag and eat them.

Imagine the petri dish that is the handlebar in a bus, no cleaner than a dollar bill, being shoved into the kid's mouth. It's probably only by miracle that the handlebar only has the regular bullshit on it and no germs for hepatitis, dysentery or tuberculosis.