1. #26741
    Quote Originally Posted by Lenonis View Post
    Ah! Gotcha you are talking distribution, not the development. Thanks for the clarification.
    Indeed the development of the vaccines was an global achievement worthy of epic movie music with scientists and doctors around the world helping. But now we have done the equivalent of giving the formula to save us from the zombies to the umbrella corporation.

  2. #26742
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    First case in Israel confirmed.
    Belgium now too.

  3. #26743
    Code Black is edging ever closer for the dutch.

  4. #26744
    The Unstoppable Force PACOX's Avatar
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    Researchers are taking thia new mutation a bit more seriously than 'deltq plus' or what was it? Mu? Tgat briefly popped up. Which makes me think it has a decent chance of spiraling out of control. Hopefully not.

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  5. #26745
    Immortal PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    We could have lessen the chance of mutations if we focused on equitable vaccine distribution but we chose profit. As a result the vast majority of the world does not have access to vaccines leaving countless opportunities for mutations. If you look at how humanity has destroyed diseases using vaccines it wasn't using a profit driven model.
    That's not at all the suspected source of this variant, you know.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Things are not looking great so far.

    The new variant, pango lineage B.1.1.529 now has a name, "Omicron", and has been elevated to a variant of concern by the WHO.
    The Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution (TAG-VE) is an independent group of experts that periodically monitors and evaluates the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and assesses if specific mutations and combinations of mutations alter the behaviour of the virus. The TAG-VE was convened on 26 November 2021 to assess the SARS-CoV-2 variant: B.1.1.529.

    The B.1.1.529 variant was first reported to WHO from South Africa on 24 November 2021. The epidemiological situation in South Africa has been characterized by three distinct peaks in reported cases, the latest of which was predominantly the Delta variant. In recent weeks, infections have increased steeply, coinciding with the detection of B.1.1.529 variant. The first known confirmed B.1.1.529 infection was from a specimen collected on 9 November 2021.

    This variant has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning. Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other VOCs. The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa. Current SARS-CoV-2 PCR diagnostics continue to detect this variant. Several labs have indicated that for one widely used PCR test, one of the three target genes is not detected (called S gene dropout or S gene target failure) and this test can therefore be used as marker for this variant, pending sequencing confirmation. Using this approach, this variant has been detected at faster rates than previous surges in infection, suggesting that this variant may have a growth advantage.

    There are a number of studies underway and the TAG-VE will continue to evaluate this variant. WHO will communicate new findings with Member States and to the public as needed.

    Based on the evidence presented indicative of a detrimental change in COVID-19 epidemiology, the TAG-VE has advised WHO that this variant should be designated as a VOC, and the WHO has designated B.1.1.529 as a VOC, named Omicron.

    As such, countries are asked to do the following:
    • enhance surveillance and sequencing efforts to better understand circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants.
    • submit complete genome sequences and associated metadata to a publicly available database, such as GISAID.
    • report initial cases/clusters associated with VOC infection to WHO through the IHR mechanism.
    • where capacity exists and in coordination with the international community, perform field investigations and laboratory assessments to improve understanding of the potential impacts of the VOC on COVID-19 epidemiology, severity, effectiveness of public health and social measures, diagnostic methods, immune responses, antibody neutralization, or other relevant characteristics.

    Individuals are reminded to take measures to reduce their risk of COVID-19, including proven public health and social measures such as wearing well-fitting masks, hand hygiene, physical distancing, improving ventilation of indoor spaces, avoiding crowded spaces, and getting vaccinated.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  6. #26746
    New travel restriction in Europe. FFS...

    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    We could have lessen the chance of mutations if we focused on equitable vaccine distribution but we chose profit. As a result the vast majority of the world does not have access to vaccines leaving countless opportunities for mutations. If you look at how humanity has destroyed diseases using vaccines it wasn't using a profit driven model.
    So what, West/Europe/EU should have vaccinated only their elderly and given the rest of vaccines away instead of vaccinating everyone with the exception of children and then moving on to the rest of the world?
    Last edited by Easo; 2021-11-26 at 08:49 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

  7. #26747
    Quote Originally Posted by Masark View Post
    Available data is suggesting that this new variant is even more transmissible than delta.

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...25612402429952
    That graph indicates that Alpha took out the original in 8 weeks, Delta took out Alpha in 6 weeks, and Omikron (B.1.1.529) took out Delta in 1 week; some claim it is 3.5 times more transmissible than Delta.


    If that is true, and it is as deadly as previous variants that's would be really bad.
    However, there are some indications that it may be overestimated a bit - and unfortunately even that isn't entirely good news - basically it first spread undetected, and caused an outbreak in some places - and that triggered increased testing where the outbreak had happened skewing the numbers.
    It still spreads more than Delta in S. Africa; but perhaps not 3.5 times more.

    The downside is that it is already spread beyond southern Africa, the Belgian case was allegedly someone returning from Egypt on November 11 through Turkey. I don't see that a travel ban from southern Africa will stop it now.

    As for how deadly it is that it seems it is too early to tell.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    So what, West/Europe/EU should have vaccinated only their elderly and given the rest of vaccines away instead of vaccinating everyone with the exception of children and then moving on to the rest of the world?
    Agreed.

    There are some who think that 100 vaccine doses in the West would magically transform into 1,000 in developing countries when it at best would be 100 - and often less than 90 (due to lack of special needles); or that making a vaccine is simple.

    And even vaccinating everyone based on age worldwide would likely reduce overall deaths it is not clear that it would reduce risk of new variants. (Or that developing countries would target the vaccines in that way; indications are that they often don't.)

    An actual problem, on the other hand, are people refusing to get vaccinated, like many school-teachers in Gauteng province:
    https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/s...anyaza-lesufi/

  8. #26748
    Immortal PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    That graph indicates that Alpha took out the original in 8 weeks, Delta took out Alpha in 6 weeks, and Omikron (B.1.1.529) took out Delta in 1 week; some claim it is 3.5 times more transmissible than Delta.
    Be very careful about drawing too many conclusions from that graph alone. Those can be very misleading, depending on how many genome samples were run during the period in question. If, perhaps, one lab in particular is faster about running the labs and happens to be sampling people in a cluster of the new cases, it can make it appear vastly more prevalent than it really is. If genome sampling ramps up and multiple areas are reporting the same trend, then we'll have a better idea.

    I mean, take a look at the graph on CoVariants:



    It shows 100% omicron samples for the most recent period. But when you look at the detail, it's only 6 samples.



    When you go back and look at earlier dates, you see that they've been filled in by many, many more samples.



    So we'll have to see whether the trend continues this way over the next month or two to see if the rate of infection bears out. It very well might.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  9. #26749
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Be very careful about drawing too many conclusions from that graph alone. Those can be very misleading, depending on how many genome samples were run during the period in question.
    Agreed.

    I added that caveat after the picture, and also the depressing news that it indicates that it is likely already more widespread in the world.

    Unfortunately it may take 2-3 months for new vaccines targeting it to arrive
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...soon-1.5683368

  10. #26750
    Immortal PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Agreed.

    I added that caveat after the picture, and also the depressing news that it indicates that it is likely already more widespread in the world.

    Unfortunately it may take 2-3 months for new vaccines targeting it to arrive
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...soon-1.5683368
    At the same time, we should remember that delta was first sampled in November 2020 and didn't really build up momentum enough to take over until starting in April 2021.

    The first part of exponential curves is generally flat for a ways, and delta is a tough competitor in general, so we may have more time than the worst-case scenarios that are running through everyone's minds. I certainly hope we do, at least.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  11. #26751
    The Unstoppable Force PACOX's Avatar
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    Man, the have a flight from South Africa sitting at a terminal like its one of the cruise ships early 2020.

    Resident Cosplay Progressive

  12. #26752
    Apparently BionTech has already begun testing the Omikron variant with its vaccine and expects results in about two weeks. If they need to adjust the vaccine for the new variant that would take approx 6 weeks (as others have already said on here) and first vaccines could be sent out in about 100 days, as they had already made preparations for that with Pfizer some time ago (because mutations were, of course, expected. Obviously BionTech/Pfizer are a lot smarter than most governments with thinking and planning ahead )

  13. #26753
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    Well hot damn, never saw this coming. Not just before christmas.

  14. #26754
    Immortal PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hypasonic View Post
    Well hot damn, never saw this coming. Not just before christmas.
    Again, if it's just popping up now, then it's certainly possible that it'll be months before it's terribly widespread.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  15. #26755
    That went from nothing to concerning very quickly.

    Part of the reason behind the concern is that it has 20 mutations. Delta had only 2 mutations. It may be nothing or it may be something - we just don't know yet.

    Of course the conspiracists are already out there making stupid claims about it.

  16. #26756
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Part of the reason behind the concern is that it has 20 mutations. Delta had only 2 mutations. It may be nothing or it may be something - we just don't know yet.
    Delta has a lot more than 2 mutations. It has more like ~30 mutations, 7 of which are on the spike protein. The new variant, omicron, has over 50 mutations, 32 of which are on the spike protein.

    Delta:




    Omicron:



    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  17. #26757
    Hrm, the news article I read was giving wrong numbers. But the general gist of it was that omicron has a lot more mutations in the spike protein, which is worrying.

  18. #26758
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Sigh ...

  19. #26759
    The Unstoppable Force PACOX's Avatar
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    Remember when some people were like "everything is going to upside until 2024“ and a lot of people, myself included, were like stop being so pessimistic? I those people were right.

    And Im not referring to COVID going away, its not. I just mean a point where we can handle it like the flu. We can't go 2 months without new spikes. A wave was/is coming despite this new variant.

    Resident Cosplay Progressive

  20. #26760
    Apparently the head of the clinical department at Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital in south africa claimed that they haven't seen any fully vaccinated people hospitalized with the new variant yet. It's a small data source though I'd assume so far. That being said, I highly doubt this variant entirely evades vaccines it'll likely just drive the protection against symptomatic infection down even further

    https://mobile.twitter.com/miamalan/...86066903552001

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