Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[bmjclark]

Apparently the head of the clinical department at Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital in south africa claimed that they haven't seen any fully vaccinated people hospitalized with the new variant yet. It's a small data source though I'd assume so far. That being said, I highly doubt this variant entirely evades vaccines it'll likely just drive the protection against symptomatic infection down even further

https://mobile.twitter.com/miamalan/...86066903552001

[Draco-Onis]

So what, West/Europe/EU should have vaccinated only their elderly and given the rest of vaccines away instead of vaccinating everyone with the exception of children and then moving on to the rest of the world?

We have more than enough doses and the capacity to produce more than enough to vaccinate everyone around the world. It is being hogged and expired by developed nations who can pay for it.

[Edge-]

We have more than enough doses and the capacity to produce more than enough to vaccinate everyone around the world. It is being hogged and expired by developing nations who can pay for it.

Sorta kinda. Developed nations are contributing vaccines to developing nations (not in necessarily enough quantities), but big problems in those countries involve an inability to get shots into arms. Because you know, developing nations usually don't have the best infrastructure (of any sort), plus the same kinds of issues around misinformation that we see in developed nations.

They could be doing more to help, and realistically should be doing more, but it's not just an issue of vaccine supply.

[jonnysensible]

Sorta kinda. Developed nations are contributing vaccines to developing nations (not in necessarily enough quantities), but big problems in those countries involve an inability to get shots into arms. Because you know, developing nations usually don't have the best infrastructure (of any sort), plus the same kinds of issues around misinformation that we see in developed nations.

They could be doing more to help, and realistically should be doing more, but it's not just an issue of vaccine supply.

nah the biggest problem is supply.

[bmjclark]

nah the biggest problem is supply.

In a lot of cases yes, though in South Africa's case, no. South Africa recently halted vaccine shipments because they were getting more than they could give seemingly due to a lot of vaccine hesitancy. Assuming the variant actually did originate in South Africa and not somewhere else, I don't think any amount of vaccine equity would have helped because they aren't able to get them into arms right now

[PhaelixWW]

In a lot of cases yes, though in South Africa's case, no. South Africa recently halted vaccine shipments because they were getting more than they could give seemingly due to a lot of vaccine hesitancy. Assuming the variant actually did originate in South Africa and not somewhere else, I don't think any amount of vaccine equity would have helped because they aren't able to get them into arms right now

It easily might have nothing to do with vaccines. Obviously there's no confirmation (and there may never be), but the theory that's been bandied about is that the massive amount of mutations might be due to a chronic infection in an immunocompromised host, like someone with untreated HIV/AIDS. South Africa has the world's largest HIV prevalence, with 1 in 5 adults infected.

[Forogil]

We have more than enough doses and the capacity to produce more than enough to vaccinate everyone around the world. It is being hogged and expired by developing nations who can pay for it.

I call bullshit on the first sentence.

And 'developing nations' has always been a bad name, and is based on a deep misunderstanding of the world.
Obviously some 'developing nations' have been hogging vaccines, e.g. India did that earlier, but that was because India experienced a massive outbreak of covid-19.

There are also other reasons for 'developing nations' to hog and have it expire, such as lack the infrastructure for delivering it in the arms of the needed, and not planning for vaccine hesitancy.

That's why actual information discusses countries in terms of income/development.

Currently 'high income countries' are vaccinating at a rate below world-average, and haven't really been above world-average since the beginning of August. However, 'upper middle income' countries had higher vaccination rates than 'high income' countries after mid-April, and 'lower middle income' countries caught up in September, and 'low income countries' have begun ramping up this month.

Obviously there's also a large variation between different countries - e.g., high income countries like Australia and New Zealand didn't complete their vaccinations until October; despite willingness to pay.

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Delta has a lot more than 2 mutations. It has more like ~30 mutations, 7 of which are on the spike protein. The new variant, omicron, has over 50 mutations, 32 of which are on the spike protein.

Delta:

Reports are not consistent regarding number of mutations.

The original reports said that Delta had 13 code-changing mutations, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant
It is not clear if the current 30 mutations is due to Delta drifting and/or that includes synonymous mutations as well.

[PhaelixWW]

Reports are not consistent regarding number of mutations.

The original reports said that Delta had 13 code-changing mutations, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant
It is not clear if the current 30 mutations is due to Delta drifting and/or that includes synonymous mutations as well.

I mean, it says right in the graphic there... "mutations in at least 75% of Delta sequences". Regardless, the spike mutations remained almost the exact same throughout, which is likely why they were all considered the same close lineage rather than distinct variants. Going from 6-7 spike mutations to 32 is a huge jump.

[Forogil]

Apparently the head of the clinical department at Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital in south africa claimed that they haven't seen any fully vaccinated people hospitalized with the new variant yet. It's a small data source though I'd assume so far. That being said, I highly doubt this variant entirely evades vaccines it'll likely just drive the protection against symptomatic infection down even further

https://mobile.twitter.com/miamalan/...86066903552001

I wouldn't trust those numbers.

65% unvaccinated and 35% partially vaccinated in S. Africa where 4.5% are partially vaccinated and 24% fully vaccinated, and it looks as though vaccinations have been at a steady rate for months. It could be chance, or it could be some regional difference - but the more likely explanation is that the numbers are wrong in some way. Note that the patients are also described as younger, so it is not that the vaccination targeted the elderly.

Hopefully the vaccine still protects against Omicron to some extent.

[Draco-Onis]

Sorta kinda. Developed nations are contributing vaccines to developing nations (not in necessarily enough quantities), but big problems in those countries involve an inability to get shots into arms. Because you know, developing nations usually don't have the best infrastructure (of any sort), plus the same kinds of issues around misinformation that we see in developed nations.

They could be doing more to help, and realistically should be doing more, but it's not just an issue of vaccine supply.

That is a fair point however they cannot really do anything without the supply of vaccine or at least be allowed to produce it on their on own. Those infrastructure challenges would be overcome in time but they cannot get there without the first step.

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I call bullshit on the first sentence.

fair enough that was a typo I meant to put developed countries, we would be having a different conversation if vaccine supplies and recipes were not being held hostage like the gold mountain of Smaug. We have a situation now where even the US government is being cut out of copyright filling by a corporation out of fear they might share a recipe with the world.

[Forogil]

I mean, it says right in the graphic there... "mutations in at least 75% of Delta sequences".

That in itself didn't answer, but the popup answered the question: "Characteristic mutations for a lineage are defined as nonsynonymous substitutions or deletions that occur", so the 30 mutations are only counting coding mutations, indicating that there has been a major drift in Delta since it was originally discovered.

The implication isn't clear - some are indicating that they are making Delta weaker, others the opposite.

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fair enough that was a typo I meant to put developed countries,

As stated the name "developing" and "developed" countries are just misleading labels based on an incorrect world-view.

we would be having a different conversation if vaccine supplies and recipes were not being held hostage like the gold mountain of Smaug.

What we primary lack is production capacity, willingness of patients, and infrastructure for delivering them.

And to blame all high income countries and thinking that they aren't exporting is just untrue:

The EU seems to have exported over 1 billion doses (and internally used 0.6 billion), China has exported 1.5 billion and used 2.4 billion doses internally, out of the global 7.88 billions delivered. India has exported some and imported some, but has more focused on their internal market, with 1.2 billion doses, and still has a long way to go there.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavir...252ddd2ec6258c
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...onia-hepatitis

The US might be another matter; I don't know the current situation but in May they had practically exported nothing while both EU and China were busy: https://www.bruegel.org/2021/07/a-wo...nd-production/ (article from July, covid-vaccine trade data from May).

We have a situation now where even the US government is being cut out of copyright filling by a corporation out of fear they might share a recipe with the world.

I don't understand what you are saying, and I see no evidence for it.

[Draco-Onis]

I don't understand what you are saying, and I see no evidence for it.

Moderna is currently in court in a dispute with the US government, they are even omitting the government scientists in the patent filling.

Why Moderna won't share rights to the COVID-19 vaccine with the government that paid for its development

[Forogil]

Moderna is currently in court in a dispute with the US government, they are even omitting the government scientists in the patent filling.

Why Moderna won't share rights to the COVID-19 vaccine with the government that paid for its development

0. I don't like those news aggregators that take an article with 1 ad, and republishes it with 9.
1. That is patent, not copyright.
2. The article is disingenuous in suggesting that the US government could direct the vaccine to lower-income countries (assuming those patents would suffice), when the US has been the major country with manufacturing of vaccines that has been the least willing to export it; based on US government export restrictions.
3. Stating that Moderna cut out the US government for fear of sharing it is seems pure guess-work.

And I don't see how this relates to your point about countries.

[Easo]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59442129

So South Africa is playing politics

South Africa has complained it is being punished - instead of applauded - for discovering Omicron, a concerning new variant of Covid-19.

The foreign ministry made the statement as countries around the world restrict travel from southern African countries as details of the spread emerged.

Gee, what were the others supposed to do?

We have more than enough doses and the capacity to produce more than enough to vaccinate everyone around the world. It is being hogged and expired by developed nations who can pay for it.

Maybe now. There wasn't such capacity in the middle of summer. Plus logistics have their own challenges + hesitancy about vaccines has not gone away.

[DarkAmbient]

Not sure how to feel about Omicron at the moment. We currently have no idea how effective current vaccines are against it and there don't seem to be any reports of increased virulence. One early estimate says it's 5 times more infectious than Delta, which definitely is concerning, but nothing concrete yet. Confirmed cases so far are extremely low. Feels like the media is going a little overboard with it. On balance the travel bans are probably the right thing but it's not unlikely that the variant has already spread widely enough to become a potential threat whether we institute travel bans or not.

[Draco-Onis]

0. I don't like those news aggregators that take an article with 1 ad, and republishes it with 9.
1. That is patent, not copyright.
2. The article is disingenuous in suggesting that the US government could direct the vaccine to lower-income countries (assuming those patents would suffice), when the US has been the major country with manufacturing of vaccines that has been the least willing to export it; based on US government export restrictions.
3. Stating that Moderna cut out the US government for fear of sharing it is seems pure guess-work.

And I don't see how this relates to your point about countries.

Patent vs copyright is playing straw men at this point, the manufacturing being done is being sold some of it is done in other countries with similar destination. The Biden administration has been lobbied by several progressive democrats to use their involvement with the moderna vaccine to give the formula to the world. I am not sure how you figure it is pure guess work more like 1+1 = 2. The patent would give moderna the means of stopping the US government from doing so from a legal standpoint. Unless you have another theory on why they want to cut out the scientists and the funding they received from tax payers out of the patent.

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Maybe now. There wasn't such capacity in the middle of summer. Plus logistics have their own challenges + hesitancy about vaccines has not gone away.

I am going to lean on the assumption that if the formula wasn't protected the entire world producing vaccines would be more than enough to accomplish this feat. I am not saying everyone would take it or be easy to distribute but step one would be accomplished which is having the vaccines.

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Not sure how to feel about Omicron at the moment. We currently have no idea how effective current vaccines are against it and there don't seem to be any reports of increased virulence. One early estimate says it's 5 times more infectious than Delta, which definitely is concerning, but nothing concrete yet. Confirmed cases so far are extremely low. Feels like the media is going a little overboard with it. On balance the travel bans are probably the right thing but it's not unlikely that the variant has already spread widely enough to become a potential threat whether we institute travel bans or not.

It's going to take months to get all the data so yea media is jumping the gun.

[Forogil]

Patent vs copyright is playing straw men at this point,

No, copyright and patent are very different ways of protecting different forms of IP.

Basically nothing of what you says checks out.

the manufacturing being done is being sold some of it is done in other countries with similar destination. The Biden administration has been lobbied by several progressive democrats to use their involvement with the moderna vaccine to give the formula to the world.

The reality is that the US government under Biden have prevented companies from exporting vaccines (and to same extent ingredients) made in the US to the world - giving some meaning to "America First".

Obviously that may seen to look bad, and retroactively shifting the blame to someone else is always a popular idea.

I am not sure how you figure it is pure guess work more like 1+1 = 2.

Exactly. Talking about patents to hide the fact that it was the US government that blocked the vaccines.

Doesn't take a genius to see through this new patent distraction.

The patent would give moderna the means of stopping the US government from doing so from a legal standpoint. Unless you have another theory on why they want to cut out the scientists and the funding they received from tax payers out of the patent.

The obvious reason for negotiating about the patents is the money they make for the owner of the patent regardless of that is Moderna or the US government.

I am going to lean on the assumption that if the formula wasn't protected the entire world producing vaccines would be more than enough to accomplish this feat.

And you would be wrong, as it wouldn't produce the vaccines.

Making mRNA vaccines isn't easy and there are additional legal hurdles in terms of vaccines.

Take a look at the some other ones see the real problems:

BioNTech that developed the BNT162b2 vaccine called Pfizer or Pfizer/BioNTech-vaccine gave Fosun the right to make the vaccine in China.
However, that vaccine is not yet approved in China and is not yet manufactured in China; some claim because it would be seen as downgrading the Chinese-developed vaccines.

AstraZeneca were setting up vaccine manufacturing for viral vector vaccines (different type, but similar story) and had severe problems in Belgium and Mexico; https://news.yahoo.com/mexico-looks-...211659730.html . Those are the actual problems that manufacturing advanced vaccines face when the company is actively trying to help. Thinking that just having the patent would magically work is just the same old distracting populism we have heard before; and still isn't true.

[Corvus]

Belgium, Israel and the UK all have confirmed omicron cases, while Germany and the Netherlands have probables. This is spreading fast.

[Shadowferal]

Indeed the development of the vaccines was an global achievement worthy of epic movie music with scientists and doctors around the world helping. But now we have done the equivalent of giving the formula to save us from the zombies to the umbrella corporation.

"We deny any involvement!

[Forogil]

Belgium, Israel and the UK all have confirmed omicron cases, while Germany and the Netherlands have probables. This is spreading fast.

One possibility is that it had already spread earlier, but we hadn't looked earlier.

The case in Belgium is especially worrying - the person had travelled between Egypt and Turkey November 11.
We believe Omicron started in Southern Africa (S. Africa or Botswana), and the first cases are from November 9.
But Egypt is Northern Africa, and Turkey isn't even Africa. So had it spread to those countries already then - how widespread is it now?
Or was the person infected in Belgium - and it is already spreading in Belgium?

Thus I'm not convinced that the travel ban will help significantly, but we will see.