Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Mayhem]

The latter doesn't follow - that the virus is contagious prior to causing symptoms doesn't mean that it stops being contagious once you show symptoms.

I never said it stops being contagious.

I said what happens to the host down the line is of no interest to the virus because the one thing it cares about, the spreading, is already at work.

Most if not all countries are fighting this from the worst possible angle, bolstered by people that think a virus would never kill their host because it needs it to survive.

[Forogil]

I never said it stops being contagious.

I said what happens to the host down the line is of no interest to the virus because the one thing it cares about, the spreading, is already at work.

That makes no sense, since the virus still spreads after people show symptoms the virus benefits from that post-symptomatic spread as well - so the virus wants to improve that.

It's like saying 'I got the appetizer, so I have eaten and thus I don't care about the main course or dessert'.

[Mayhem]

That makes no sense, since the virus still spreads after people show symptoms the virus benefits from that post-symptomatic spread as well - so the virus wants to improve that.

It's like saying 'I got the appetizer, so I have eaten and thus I don't care about the main course or dessert'.

The virus is not a thing that has a plan. It doesn't wait for anything. It spreads and the evolutionary part is done, there is no care, no thought, no consideration, nothing. It spreads, it evolves, that's what it does and since it spreads prior to causing symptoms whatever happens to the host after is not of any importance because its prime purpose is already fulfilled.

That the virus keeps spreading after causing symptoms is a bonus, it's a nice to have, but not a need.

[Spectral]

The virus is not a thing that has a plan. It doesn't wait for anything. It spreads and the evolutionary part is done, there is no care, no thought, no consideration, nothing. It spreads, it evolves, that's what it does and since it spreads prior to causing symptoms whatever happens to the host after is not of any importance because its prime purpose is already fulfilled.

That the virus keeps spreading after causing symptoms is a bonus, it's a nice to have, but not a need.

Are you suggesting that persistence of spread for a given host has no impact on viral transmission rate? That's almost certainly wrong.

[Forogil]

The virus is not a thing that has a plan. It doesn't wait for anything. It spreads and the evolutionary part is done, there is no care, no thought, no consideration, nothing. It spreads, it evolves, that's what it does and since it spreads prior to causing symptoms whatever happens to the host after is not of any importance because its prime purpose is already fulfilled.

That's incorrect in every way.

The "goal" isn't to spread but to maximize the spread - being more contagious helps with that as well as and being contagious for longer.

I don't see a need to continue this pseudo-discussion.

[Mayhem]

That's incorrect in every way.

The "goal" isn't to spread but to maximize the spread - being more contagious helps with that as well as and being contagious for longer.

I don't see a need to continue this pseudo-discussion.

Considering there are viruses out there that have a 90% fatality rate you are certainly wrong. Sure it helps that a host is contagious for longer but don't fall for the ill belief that a virus always evolves to keep its host alive, that's pseudoscience nonsense.

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Are you suggesting that persistence of spread for a given host has no impact on viral transmission rate? That's almost certainly wrong.

No

[Forogil]

Considering there are viruses out there that have a 90% fatality rate you are certainly wrong.

That have nothing what-so-ever to do with what I wrote.

And it's also irrelevant for this - as the ones that are 90% lethal are some variants of Ebola (well, and rabies - that you can get treatment for) - which often spreads after you stop breathing and die, which isn't usually the case for respiratory viruses like a coronavirus. Estimating Ebola-fatality based on reports is also problematic as we don't know if cases were missed (the 90% for Ebola is case fatality rate - not infection fatality rate), and if the patients got the best possible care - especially the best current care with new anti-viral that have been developed due to the covid-pandemic.

And doesn't it get tiring to constantly wait for the really lethal variant of covid-19?

[Mayhem]

That have nothing what-so-ever to do with what I wrote.

And it's also irrelevant for this - as the ones that are 90% lethal are some variants of Ebola (well, and rabies - that you can get treatment for) - which often spreads after you stop breathing and die, which isn't usually the case for respiratory viruses like a coronavirus. Estimating Ebola-fatality based on reports is also problematic as we don't know if cases were missed (the 90% for Ebola is case fatality rate - not infection fatality rate), and if the patients got the best possible care - especially the best current care with new anti-viral that have been developed due to the covid-pandemic.

And doesn't it get tiring to constantly wait for the really lethal variant of covid-19?

So it spreads after the host died, interesting. What was your point again? Ah yes, the goal is to maximize spread, well, I'd say a corpse is less likely to help spread than a walking person. It refutes your argument 100%, a virus does not give a shit about the host, there's no goal, no logic, nothing.

No, it doesn't get tiring to explain to people that we should be taking this thing way more seriously because if a more lethal variant evolves a great number of people are shit out of luck just because we imagined what a virus wanted. It would also help with any other diseases if we had a functioning system in place for future outbreaks of any kind.

This thing isn't too lethal, well that is if you think a million dead Americans isn't that bad. So we can test and implement scenarios, work out a plan to react, explain it, and prepare the population, or we keep fucking around finding out that long covid is a lot worse than thought and keep infecting and reinfecting millions upon millions up until there evolves a variant that actually destroys lung tissue on a grand scale.

[PACOX]

That's incorrect in every way.

The "goal" isn't to spread but to maximize the spread - being more contagious helps with that as well as and being contagious for longer.

I don't see a need to continue this pseudo-discussion.

There's no intelligence plan in place. The virus, any virus, maintains traits that allow it to reproduce. Does mean those are always positive , optimal, etc.

Hypothetically speaking an organism could mutate to being purple and all subsequent generations will be purple because of the the one time it successfully reproduced while it was purple. Being purple offers its no advantages or disadvantages but becomes an inherent trait of the organism.


Viruses tend to become less deadly and more contagious because they spread better when a host is alive. But there's nothing that keeps a virus from being contagious enough to spread while killing its host or reaching some sort of equilibrium being both contagious and debilitating. There's plenty of real world examples.


Its not out of the realm of possibilities for a virus to mutate into a deadlier and more successful strain because mutations are random.

[Forogil]

Viruses tend to become less deadly and more contagious because they spread better when a host is alive. But there's nothing that keeps a virus from being contagious enough to spread while killing its host or reaching some sort of equilibrium being both contagious and debilitating. There's plenty of real world examples.


Its not out of the realm of possibilities for a virus to mutate into a deadlier and more successful strain because mutations are random.

But it's unlikely - and we have better tools to deal with it when it occurs (new drugs, and partial immunity from prior vaccinations and infections) in addition to having millions of years of development of immune systems that reduce the risk.

And the problem is that by stupidly working too hard to reduce that risk we get other problems, and we can see the harm they do - look at China and their constant lockdowns, or at the tens of millions of children globally that have missed other childhood vaccinations in part due to lockdowns, or the hundred of millions of children that haven't been in school for a long time, in some countries even more than a year.

Remember that the missed vaccinations are for diseases that we know are dangerous.

Additionally, we see that the idea of thinking that the disease can be stopped the disease leads to the Chinese solution where vaccinations of the risk groups aren't a priority (since covid isn't supposed to spread) - meaning that they are not protected once the outbreak happens.

[Mayhem]

But it's unlikely - and we have better tools to deal with it when it occurs (new drugs, and partial immunity from prior vaccinations and infections) in addition to having millions of years of development of immune systems that reduce the risk.

And the problem is that by stupidly working too hard to reduce that risk we get other problems, and we can see the harm they do - look at China and their constant lockdowns, or at the tens of millions of children globally that have missed other childhood vaccinations in part due to lockdowns, or the hundred of millions of children that haven't been in school for a long time, in some countries even more than a year.

Remember that the missed vaccinations are for diseases that we know are dangerous.

Additionally, we see that the idea of thinking that the disease can be stopped the disease leads to the Chinese solution where vaccinations of the risk groups aren't a priority (since covid isn't supposed to spread) - meaning that they are not protected once the outbreak happens.

You're not making a lot of sense and are basically arguing against yourself. No one is arguing for a chinese solution.

[Forogil]

You're not making a lot of sense and are basically arguing against yourself. No one is arguing for a chinese solution.

You wanted to stop the spread completely, then the Chinese solution is your only realistic option - in case you haven't realized it yet.
Other countries have vaccinated to have a sufficiently low spread with an even lower fatality rate; like S. Korea, Australia etc.

And I'm sure there a several millions that argue that the Chinese solutions is the best one.

And once more it seems very unlikely that it will magically evolve to have a cfr of 90% as Ebola and other similar blood-borne diseases, since a respiratory virus requires that you breathe to spread it - whereas blood-borne disease does not and have often been spread by bad funeral practices.

[Mayhem]

You wanted to stop the spread completely, then the Chinese solution is your only realistic option - in case you haven't realized it yet.
Other countries have vaccinated to have a sufficiently low spread with an even lower fatality rate; like S. Korea, Australia etc.

And I'm sure there a several millions that argue that the Chinese solutions is the best one.

Quote me on where I wanted to stop the spread completely.

And once more it seems very unlikely that it will magically evolve to have a cfr of 90% as Ebola and other similar blood-borne diseases, since a respiratory virus requires that you breathe to spread it - whereas blood-borne disease does not and have often been spread by bad funeral practices.

The "it spreads prior to causing symptoms" part is really hard for you to grasp isn't it?

[Forogil]

Quote me on where I wanted to stop the spread completely.

That's the only realistic solution if you want to do it differently. You don't offer any other alternatives.

The "it spreads prior to causing symptoms" part is really hard for you to grasp isn't it?

Nope, but it seems you totally misunderstand it.

The correct statement is that it also spreads prior to causing symptoms, which makes some counter-measures less effective, but with vaccines it doesn't matter that much.

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A more interesting part is that we already last year (2021) saw that life expectancy was back to pre-pandemic levels in several countries - but others continue to struggle like Bulgaria and the United States.

Denmark, Finland, and Norway never had any drop in life expectancy, whereas France, Belgium, Switzerland and Sweden are back to pre-pandemic levels. (It was focused on Europe and some American states.)

https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...ond-year-study
Actual study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01450-3 - specifically


For some reason it is strongly correlated with vaccine uptake for 60+.

[Mayhem]

That's the only realistic solution if you want to do it differently. You don't offer any other alternatives.

Slowing it down would help massively as well. You know, the solution where millions don't get sick at the same time and almost overstrain the system every few months.

Nope, but it seems you totally misunderstand it.

The correct statement is that it also spreads prior to causing symptoms, which makes some counter-measures less effective, but with vaccines it doesn't matter that much.

Do you ignore that we're constantly behind the virus on purpose or by chance? Just now the adjusted vaccines rolled out and guess what, there are two new variants that seem to evade immunity, just as BA5 evaded immunity to prior infections. At this rate, we will have new waves every few months which will increase the risk of long covid and be a constant strain on hospitals and society.

So the thing you think is enough does fuck all, as we can see right now.

I understand that you're a gambler but you shouldn't stack the odds against you for no reason at all.

[Forogil]

Slowing it down would help massively as well. You know, the solution where millions don't get sick at the same time and almost overstrain the system every few months.

The system isn't really overstrained in several countries that have declared that the pandemic is over, don't have any restrictions and still have life expectancy back to normal.

And how do you propose to slow it down during the next three or four decades without imposing more severe problems? (Like lack of other vaccinations, lack of education, general poverty, etc)

Do you ignore that we're constantly behind the virus on purpose or by chance? Just now the adjusted vaccines rolled out and guess what, there are two new variants that seem to evade immunity, just as BA5 evaded immunity to prior infections.

Regarding BA.5 the science says:

We were very excited to see that even though it’s more immune evasive than the other ones we tested, previous methods are still going to protect against it.

So it "evades immunity", but you are still safe from severe disease with the unadjusted vaccine and unadjusted boosters.

Or in other words, we are not behind anymore.

[Mayhem]

The system isn't really overstrained in several countries that have declared that the pandemic is over, don't have any restrictions and still have life expectancy back to normal.

Dude, life expectancy isn't everything. When a few million people fall ill at the same time that's a problem.

And how do you propose to slow it down during the next three or four decades without imposing more severe problems? (Like lack of other vaccinations, lack of education, general poverty, etc)

Well, three years into the pandemic a working contact tracing would be one thing. Increase testing and implement mask mandate whenever a new wave starts to counter it. No one talks about lockdowns, they are the last resort of all the measurements. Are you saying that whole classrooms or schools being shut down for a few days every few months because half the teachers and pupils are ill is sustainable?

Regarding BA.5 the science says:

So it "evades immunity", but you are still safe from severe disease with the unadjusted vaccine and unadjusted boosters.

Or in other words, we are not behind anymore.

No one is talking about BA5 anymore, it's BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 that's the new shit, keep up.

Again, the goal should be to reduce the chance for it to evolve into something worse not pretend that long covid isn't a thing and let the virus do whatever it wants.

Yeah, fewer people are dying, everything's peachy now, sure hospital personnel is stressed all the time, entire departments have to close down because all the nurses are ill and patients can't get the required care they need, that's just how life is from now on, awesome.

[Forogil]

Dude, life expectancy isn't everything. When a few million people fall ill at the same time that's a problem.

Only if the disease is serious enough, the bounce-back in life expectancy indicates that it isn't really the case.

Many millions have been infected with the flu (including similar strains as the one that caused the Spanish flu pandemic) and human coronaviruses like HCoV-OC229E and HCoV-OC43 (which may have caused a pandemic in the 1880s) every winter for quite some time.

Well, three years into the pandemic a working contact tracing would be one thing.

That people concluded doesn't work anymore. A disease that also spreads before it gives symptoms and has similar symptoms to many other diseases isn't easy to contact trace - and if you cannot do it in countries like India and Africa the virus will still develop new variants - as we saw before.

Are you saying that whole classrooms or schools being shut down for a few days every few months because half the teachers and pupils are ill is sustainable?

No, I'm saying that it isn't happening anymore, except for the countries that implement contact tracing and testing combined with lockdowns, like China (technically most are home without being ill - doesn't matter).

[Mayhem]

Glad to read that the stuff that's happening in my country isn't happening.

[Forogil]

Another of the myths of covid is that vaccination rates are low outside of the "west" only due to lack of supply.

Unfortunately, the reality is more complex with many choosing not to get vaccinated - and India having to destroy 100 million doses due to lack of demand in India - even though the doses have been free - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-63324548

The booster vaccines have no demand as people now seem fed up with Covid.
Honestly, I'm also fed up. We all are.

(India have about half a million confirmed deaths in covid-19, but estimated excess deaths are between 2 and 9 millions.)