1. #29221
    Case numbers are slowly declining but still high here. I am surprised the numbers are not higher considering all the events going on. In the last month we have had Warriors' party & parade, Stern Grove, CorgiCon, Pride Parade, all the Roe v. Wade almost daily protests, etc. I am surprised it has not exploded out of control.

  2. #29222
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    Case numbers are slowly declining but still high here. I am surprised the numbers are not higher considering all the events going on. In the last month we have had Warriors' party & parade, Stern Grove, CorgiCon, Pride Parade, all the Roe v. Wade almost daily protests, etc. I am surprised it has not exploded out of control.
    Good news is hospitals still seem like they're doing alright in CA.

    But very much yeah, life is returning to normal for the most part it seems. I'm still avoiding shit in the hopes I can keep my streak going, but the net is closing. Few friends have avoided it have been exposed recently as well so hopefully they won't get it, but every week more and more folks I know are either getting it (mostly mild-moderate symptoms, no hospitalizations or anything because yay vaccines).

    What's maybe worrying is that they're apparently seeing some monkeypox or whatever in the wastewater in the bay area, so I hope we don't have to contend with both at once : |

  3. #29223
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Good news is hospitals still seem like they're doing alright in CA.

    But very much yeah, life is returning to normal for the most part it seems. I'm still avoiding shit in the hopes I can keep my streak going, but the net is closing. Few friends have avoided it have been exposed recently as well so hopefully they won't get it, but every week more and more folks I know are either getting it (mostly mild-moderate symptoms, no hospitalizations or anything because yay vaccines).

    What's maybe worrying is that they're apparently seeing some monkeypox or whatever in the wastewater in the bay area, so I hope we don't have to contend with both at once : |
    I have not paid too much attention to the Monkey Pox. It is my understanding that transmission requires direct contact?

  4. #29224
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    I have not paid too much attention to the Monkey Pox. It is my understanding that transmission requires direct contact?
    Honestly...I haven't looked at all. It just came up on a work call and apparently it's pretty nasty looking or something, but like...until it becomes something I have to worry about, I kinda don't have the brainspace for another plague right now.

  5. #29225
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Honestly...I haven't looked at all. It just came up on a work call and apparently it's pretty nasty looking or something, but like...until it becomes something I have to worry about, I kinda don't have the brainspace for another plague right now.
    Same here. My parents are visiting for 2 months. I feel bad for them. The only places I took them are outdoor places with no crowd. Although we did go to CorgiCon. It was held at Ocean Beach. I figured as long as we stay away from the crowd, since it was outdoor and real windy, we will be okay.

  6. #29226
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    I have not paid too much attention to the Monkey Pox. It is my understanding that transmission requires direct contact?
    It is believed so; but some are investigating if it may spread through air as well.
    The number of cases worldwide are still slowly increasing - but current trends continuing it will be several months (or years) until it poses a significant threat.

  7. #29227
    https://www.wgbh.org/news/national-n...-health-powers

    Damn, down to page two. But not surprising, it seems to have faded a bit in the news despite cases still being high, in large part due to plenty of other "exciting" new things to freak people out.

    This is a long read, but it's pretty scary how conservative legal groups have basically used covid to systematically attack government authority and limit what can be done to protect public health - which is genuinely a very important part of a governments job.

    The government - federal, state, and local - is going to be less prepared, and less capable to having the authority to battle upcoming pandemics - yes there will be more - and that's gonna be dangerous as fuck.

    We've already seen misinformation doing significant damage and that the phrase, "Avoid it like the plague" is no longer relevant given how we literally are still in a plague and a large number of people have done everything to pretend it doesn't exist and not take it seriously. The only silver lining is that those folks should shrink in terms of raw numbers as we go through more pandemics that they refuse to treat seriously.

  8. #29228
    Some good and bad news are coming out regarding covid

    Good vaccine-news:

    Possibly 20 million lives have been saved by covid-vaccines (mostly AZ and Pfizer/BioNTech) during 2021(*) - which is about the same as the estimated number of deaths so far; and based on the pandemic this year I would guess that the number of lives saved may be double that. (Although it's not just about saving lives; vaccines also allow people to actually live.)

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...320-6/fulltext
    https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...eir-first-year

    The estimate is that about the same number of lives were saved in covax-countries (poor ones) as in rich countries.

    However, that assumes that the covax-countries used the vaccines wisely - and vaccinated the elderly and not children. If the poorer countries used the vaccines less wisely millions fewer lives may have been saved.

    Bad news - including vaccines:

    More than hundred million of children in poor countries have been home from school for a long time - 2 years and counting in some places; with really bad effects
    Before the pandemic 57% of ten-year-olds in low and middle-income countries could not read a simple story.... That figure may have risen to 70%... The share of ten-year-olds who cannot read in Latin America, probably the worst-affected region, could rocket from around 50% to 80%
    There are even estimates that it will reduce GDP by 0.9% - not this year, but every year by 2040, and not in one country - but globally; at a cost of 20 trillion $ loss in earning for those children (or 30 times the current market cap of Tesla), compared to the minor estimated 0.15 trillion $ spent on covid-vaccines (in a few years).

    https://www.economist.com/internatio...lobal-disaster

    And it is not only lack of school, but tens of millions of children also lack the vaccination they would normally have, causing another set-back that may destroy their future:
    https://www.who.int/news/item/15-07-...-three-decades

    *: Well, not exactly 2021 - it was from Dec 8 2020 to Dec 8 2021.

  9. #29229
    With my parents in town, I ended up talking to some of the more remote family members.

    I found out my 93 years old aunt in Chicago had asymptomatic Covid. She found out during her regular health checkup. It went away by itself. At 93, she still drives and goes to store to do her shopping. Good gene, I guess.

    One uncle, early 80s, his immune system went haywire when they gave him the vaccine. Not sure which one. He ended up with wounds on his legs that took months to heal. They ended up having to use hyperbaric treatment to force blood flow to his legs. That was out of the left field. My father speculates that it may have something to do with his diabetes.

  10. #29230
    Australia is going through a new major covid wave, which is coinciding with a pretty bad winter flu season. Health officials are saying we need mask mandates back, people working at home again, though the governments aren't showing much interest in it. This all despite a very high vaccination rate.

    The problem is that its new Omicron sub-variants doing the round, BA 4 and BA 5. BA 5 is now the dominant variant in Australia, and seems to be very capable at evading previous immunities coming from vaccination or previous infections. Hospitalisations are up 63% in the last month.

    Sometimes I think this won't end until we all end up in Quarian style encounter suits.

  11. #29231
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    The problem is that its new Omicron sub-variants doing the round, BA 4 and BA 5. BA 5 is now the dominant variant in Australia, and seems to be very capable at evading previous immunities coming from vaccination or previous infections. Hospitalisations are up 63% in the last month.
    That it evades prior vaccinations is a bit of a simplification - as covid-vaccines normally protect more against death than against infection; and you expect the protection from previous vaccination or infection to be strongest against the serious consequences (as it gives the immune system a head start and then it can start hypermutating).

    And some countries are already seeing signs that the latest covid-wave is declining even for hospitalizations, like Spain and Israel (the latest 2 weeks); and neither country seem to have done any policy changes the latest months. The number of deaths in this wave is a small fraction compared to previous waves, so something is still significantly reducing the risk. (It might be that Omicron is milder which also reduces the risk.)

    Cases is more messy as testing protocols have varied wildly and many countries have scaled back testing; and death-numbers are generally a bit delayed.

  12. #29232
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    That it evades prior vaccinations is a bit of a simplification - as covid-vaccines normally protect more against death than against infection; and you expect the protection from previous vaccination or infection to be strongest against the serious consequences (as it gives the immune system a head start and then it can start hypermutating).

    And some countries are already seeing signs that the latest covid-wave is declining even for hospitalizations, like Spain and Israel (the latest 2 weeks); and neither country seem to have done any policy changes the latest months. The number of deaths in this wave is a small fraction compared to previous waves, so something is still significantly reducing the risk. (It might be that Omicron is milder which also reduces the risk.)

    Cases is more messy as testing protocols have varied wildly and many countries have scaled back testing; and death-numbers are generally a bit delayed.
    It isn't even proven to prevent death to be fair. How effective it is will be up for debate for a while. I admit I expected public trust to be eroded a lot more given all the shit they pulled to push the vaccine. I hate living in a world where 4chan trolls eating horse paste were in fact getting rather good treatment and prevention...

  13. #29233
    Quote Originally Posted by Tentim View Post
    It isn't even proven to prevent death to be fair.
    For the previous variants it is clear that the vaccine reduce deaths, even the bad Chinese ones, https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination

    However, one problem with simple studies and just looking at deaths is that vaccinations have (at least in most countries) been targeted at the ones most at risk - so 65-year olds are more like to have 3 or 4 vaccines doses than the population at large, and still die more often than 20-year olds, since the base risk is thousand times higher. Compensating for that makes it more difficult.

  14. #29234
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    For the previous variants it is clear that the vaccine reduce deaths, even the bad Chinese ones, https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination

    However, one problem with simple studies and just looking at deaths is that vaccinations have (at least in most countries) been targeted at the ones most at risk - so 65-year olds are more like to have 3 or 4 vaccines doses than the population at large, and still die more often than 20-year olds, since the base risk is thousand times higher. Compensating for that makes it more difficult.
    Cant you just argue that those most likely to of died just did so in the first few waves?

    I won't lie I'm extremely skeptical of the effectiveness and extremely wary of how quickly it was rubber stamped.

  15. #29235
    Quote Originally Posted by Tentim View Post
    I won't lie I'm extremely skeptical of the effectiveness and extremely wary of how quickly it was rubber stamped.
    Because...?

    Do you have data suggesting that the vaccine isn't effective at reducing the severity of covid?

    Do you have any evidence or information to suggest impropriety in the approval processes?

  16. #29236
    Quote Originally Posted by Tentim View Post
    Cant you just argue that those most likely to of died just did so in the first few waves?
    No, because we know that most weren't infected before we got vaccines based on sero-prevalance studies.
    The link also shows that the death per 100,000 are 20 times lower for the ones that got 2 doses and booster compared to unvaccinated in the US and in Switzerland last December and at least a factor 6 times lower today. The trend is the same regardless of age group, but the factor differs a bit.

    Similarly some countries avoided most deaths in the first waves (Denmark, Australia, S. Korea) and their total deaths are much lower than countries that didn't avoid the first wave; so it isn't that people's number were up. And except for Australia those numbers have levelled off - and at least one of those countries have basically zero remaining restrictions.

  17. #29237
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    No, because we know that most weren't infected before we got vaccines based on sero-prevalance studies.
    The link also shows that the death per 100,000 are 20 times lower for the ones that got 2 doses and booster compared to unvaccinated in the US and in Switzerland last December and at least a factor 6 times lower today. The trend is the same regardless of age group, but the factor differs a bit.

    Similarly some countries avoided most deaths in the first waves (Denmark, Australia, S. Korea) and their total deaths are much lower than countries that didn't avoid the first wave; so it isn't that people's number were up. And except for Australia those numbers have levelled off - and at least one of those countries have basically zero remaining restrictions.
    This wrongly assumes each infected both shows symptoms enough to even know or report they are infected. I am also confused by time lines here. Given the low rate of fatalities and long term injuries what dates are they working with? To the best of my knowledge it was roughly a year before vaccines became available and longer till they were widely distributed.

    Is this also including the data on countries that mandated Ivermectin or is it simply test groups?

  18. #29238
    Quote Originally Posted by Tentim View Post
    This wrongly assumes each infected both shows symptoms enough to even know or report they are infected.
    No, it correctly recognizes that few people were infected before a year ago in Denmark, Australia and S. Korea; since they did actually test and had it under control and few people died.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tentim View Post
    I am also confused by time lines here. Given the low rate of fatalities and long term injuries what dates are they working with? To the best of my knowledge it was roughly a year before vaccines became available and longer till they were widely distributed.
    And they managed to keep fatalities down that entire time, and they are all countries with working governments and reliable health-services so the number of fatalities correspond to reality. Australia did struggle a bit, since they were last among western countries in getting the vaccine.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tentim View Post
    Is this also including the data on countries that mandated Ivermectin or is it simply test groups?
    The data are for entire countries, not test-cases.

    Regarding governments allowing off-label Ivermectin: the countries that pushed Ivermectin generally have trash performance in handling covid, the list is: Czech (0.38%), Slovakia (0.37%), Mexico (officially 0.26% estimated 0.5%), Peru (0.63%), India (officially 0.03% estimated 0.3%), and the Philippines (officially 0.05% estimated 0.2%).

    The percentages are the number of dead as a percentage of the population.

    The problem with many countries with poor healthcare and bad governments, is that the official death-numbers miss a lot of people; whereas working countries have them close to each other so that there's no difference - or the estimates are even lower than the official numbers. However, many poor countries also lack the elderly that are most at risk - so the numbers are even worse.

    Compared with the US (officially 0.3% - estimated 0.35%), Germany (0.17%), and the countries I listed above Denmark (0.11%), S. Korea (0.047%), and Australia (0.042%).

  19. #29239
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    No, it correctly recognizes that few people were infected before a year ago in Denmark, Australia and S. Korea; since they did actually test and had it under control and few people died.


    And they managed to keep fatalities down that entire time, and they are all countries with working governments and reliable health-services so the number of fatalities correspond to reality. Australia did struggle a bit, since they were last among western countries in getting the vaccine.


    The data are for entire countries, not test-cases.

    Regarding governments allowing off-label Ivermectin: the countries that pushed Ivermectin generally have trash performance in handling covid, the list is: Czech (0.38%), Slovakia (0.37%), Mexico (officially 0.26% estimated 0.5%), Peru (0.63%), India (officially 0.03% estimated 0.3%), and the Philippines (officially 0.05% estimated 0.2%).

    The percentages are the number of dead as a percentage of the population.

    The problem with many countries with poor healthcare and bad governments, is that the official death-numbers miss a lot of people; whereas working countries have them close to each other so that there's no difference - or the estimates are even lower than the official numbers. However, many poor countries also lack the elderly that are most at risk - so the numbers are even worse.

    Compared with the US (officially 0.3% - estimated 0.35%), Germany (0.17%), and the countries I listed above Denmark (0.11%), S. Korea (0.047%), and Australia (0.042%).
    True but that also comes into play when you talk about available healthcare for extreme cases as well. It is an exceedingly hard metric to measure and that is before you take into account the virus rapid mutations.

  20. #29240
    https://www.dailydot.com/debug/anti-...ted-data-leak/

    Anti-vaxx dating site for "purebloods" who have "mRNA FREE semen" is...uh...a fuckin weird thing to begin with.

    But the hilarious bit, given that of course this is yet another low-effort grift, is that the company behind it left its administrative dashboard publicly accessible. They doxxed all their own users.

    Nobody has ever credibly accused the anti-vaxx crowd of being smart or competent.

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