Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Deficineiron]

Hmm okay, well yes people are estimating but it hasn't stopped climbing yet, not to mention flatten out.

moving average of daily death toll continues to form a parabolic curve. that should start notably decreasing its slope late next week /early following - but I assume still will be rising. reporting failure will impact that as the number gets bigger and bigger. eventually you have too many casualties to actually count in some areas.

not even sure when to expect it to begin dropping. no one may be very sure, even those with all the data.

[boyzma]

What do you expect them to do? Actual tests take a lab and up to 24 hours. Are they going to quarantine people on the plane for 24 hours or more while they wait for test results?

No of course I don't expect them to test them right there. But coming from 2 countries that had been put on the "get out" list should have at least deserved a few compulsory questions...instead they weren't even spoken to. Just seemed odd to me.

[Forogil]

It worked out for systems like in Taiwan. They TRACKED EVERYONE down comming from outbreak zones and isolated them before any tests or symptoms.

Tracking everyone from the affected areas and testing them is exactly what WHO recommends (isolating is less clear); not closing borders (except possibly temporarily early on).

[Acidbaron]

No of course I don't expect them to test them right there. But coming from 2 countries that had been put on the "get out" list should have at least deserved a few compulsory questions...instead they weren't even spoken to. Just seemed odd to me.

Oh that i can explain, when it comes to quarantine. People cannot be trusted that's the big issue, even those who have to enforce it people would rather lie and risk infecting others than being subject to quarantine themselves.

[Onikaroshi]

it is a mystery - and that virus followed the equation so nicely in china too. No one knows why!

- - - Updated - - -



mass graves from iran satellite imagery make it easy for me to assume the iranians might have an error in their counting.

Italy: 23% over 65
Iran: 6% over 65
China: 12% over 65

Plus italy was hit rather hard and had a lot of cases per capita, so it's no wonder their's was higher.

(Don't know of Iran's medical facilities, but if they're not great that could lead to their higher %, and China did some hardcore quarantine, welding people in and shit)

[Acidbaron]

moving average of daily death toll continues to form a parabolic curve. that should start notably decreasing its slope late next week /early following - but I assume still will be rising. reporting failure will impact that as the number gets bigger and bigger. eventually you have too many casualties to actually count in some areas.

not even sure when to expect it to begin dropping. no one may be very sure, even those with all the data.

For the sake of the people there soon hopefully. It shows why the other nations are enforcing such draconian measures in hope they'll stop things or slow it down a good week or two from now.

[Forogil]

There have been cases i believe were people carried the virus and didn't show symptoms for weeks, up to 23 days even before it fully broke out in the carrier, on the other hand, quarantines may have little effect but it might aid your healthcare system.

Italy also waited too long and also didn't quarantine fully, they are doing like the UK are doing now. Keeping things open, not closing restaurants. So that "little benefit" might mean a big difference in the end. I also don't see why you can't do both. Why can't you tell people or even forbid them to travel and tell teach them how to prevent getting infected easily, how does one prevent the other? Or am i misreading something?

It's not like it's the first outbreak WHO has studied, and assumedly they have made those guidelines based on what usually happens - and not on what people think happens.

And it is now done too late - if you already have lots of local clusters you don't stop it by closing the borders (there might be a minor advantage for the rest of the world though); and it's easy to see that there are possible disadvantages. And doing it in time requires knowing where the outbreak is, it spread from China before we fully knew about the disease and it then spread from Italy to lots of other countries before people have realized that there were a problem in Italy.

[Gorsameth]

Russia is not the issue, we have the Netherlands and UK adopting this crazy notion that will lead to mass deaths and there's no damn proof of it, next october we might get a new variant and then what is your message to the public then?

"Well we tried but we were wrong"

Again with the notion that the Netherlands is somehow ignoring the virus and letting it do its thing. We're not.

[Shadowferal]

CDC: 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older

The analysis looked at 44 cases from Feb. 12 through March 16 and found that 34 percent of deaths were reported among adults aged 85 and older. Forty-six percent of deaths were reported among those aged 65 to 84. Adults between the ages of 20 and 64 made up 20 percent of the deaths.

Public health officials and experts have warned for weeks that the elderly are at the highest risk of dying from the coronavirus. The analysis lined up with data released by China, which showed 80 percent of deaths there were in adults aged 60 and older.

Elderly people are likely at higher risk because immune systems weaken with age. Older adults are also more likely to have underlying health conditions that exacerbate illness.

The data analyzed by the CDC did not include information on the underlying health conditions of patients.

[Forogil]

Italys death rate (8.33%) seems extremely high, China only has 3237 (4%), even Irans death ratio (6.54%) is lower too.

The death rates are unlikely to be even close to accurate as most cases aren't confirmed, whereas the number of dead should be more reliable (but even those numbers are unclear). And the number of missed cases likely vary between different countries - and even over time.

And unfortunately Italy's numbers will increase as people don't die immediately.
And then the infected have different age, other problems (e.g., smoking Chinese men, old Italians, etc), so it's almost impossible to draw any conclusion at this stage.

[Acidbaron]

Again with the notion that the Netherlands is somehow ignoring the virus and letting it do its thing. We're not.

Well no not fully, but your government is giving mixed signals, at one hand i acknowledge the steps being taken and asking people to stay home, offering aid to companies to close their doors and so forth on the other hand you have Rutte talking about herd immunity. I just find that the idea that you can control who gets this virus and hope on herd immunity the wrong way to go about it.

So what's the actual government plan now, are you guys going to close down stores, restaurants and so on or not?

[Egomaniac]

Again with the notion that the Netherlands is somehow ignoring the virus and letting it do its thing. We're not.

Yeah, the communication from both the UK and Netherlands government may not have been handled very well...but the strategies are just a bit more involved than "we're going to let Herd Immunity solve the problem". Both are still trying to protect the most vulnerable members of the population. Both still want to flatten the curve of infection.

This article is about the UK strategy:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ohnson/608065/

“People have misinterpreted the phrase herd immunity as meaning that we’re going to have an epidemic to get people infected,” says Graham Medley at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Medley chairs a group of scientists who model the spread of infectious diseases and advise the government on pandemic responses. He says that the actual goal is the same as that of other countries: flatten the curve by staggering the onset of infections. As a consequence, the nation may achieve herd immunity; it’s a side effect, not an aim. Indeed, yesterday, U.K. Health Secretary Matt Hancock stated, “Herd immunity is not our goal or policy.” The government’s actual coronavirus action plan, available online, doesn’t mention herd immunity at all. “The messaging has been really confusing, and I think that was really unfortunate,” says Petra Klepac, who is also an infectious-disease modeler at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “It’s been a case of how not to communicate during an outbreak,” says Devi Sridhar, a public-health specialist at the University of Edinburgh.

This one is about the Dutch:

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/0...-health-chief/

Creating herd immunity for coronavirus is not the main aim of the Dutch government’s current strategy, RIVM chief Jaap van Dissel told MPs on Wednesday. ‘Group immunity is absolutely not an aim in itself,’ Van Dissel said at a meeting with MPs ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s debate. The Dutch approach has been widely categorised as focusing on group or herd immunity, and has faced much criticism in the international media.

Nevertheless, the advantage of developing immunity is that it strengthens the impact of other measures, Van Dissels said. In the meantime, a vaccine could be developed to protect everyone. That, he told MPs, is the ultimate aim. ‘It is about combating the virus and protecting vulnerable groups: elderly people and people with poor health,’ Van Dissel said. A balance, he said, has to be found between total lockdown and an approach in which you try to control the virus as much as possible.

I do think that everyone involved in creating and communicating these strategies needs to drop the term "herd immunity" out of their lexicon. People hear that term and the first thing that comes to mind is "they're not going to do anything" or "They're going to try and infect us all"

[Deficineiron]

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/bl...anas-att-jobba

Holy shit. People working in healthcare who are sick are told to go back to work instead of staying home. When you thought sweden couldn't get more retarded the people in charge always manage to go even more retard than you'd think was possible.

everyone in healthcare gets this virus. if you keep asymptomatic folks at home, you have no workers in hospitals.

it isn't pretty but it is reality.

[zEmini]

Since a lot of countries are unable or unwilling to do much to flatten the curve; Plan B: Herd Immunity will be the solution whether we like it or not. This isn't meant to scare people, but honestly I do not see any other solution until we get massed produced cures/vaccines. So if you have major health problems/old you will just have to self isolate for a year or longer until a vaccine arrives at your doorstep.

[I Push Buttons]

CDC: 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older

The analysis looked at 44 cases from Feb. 12 through March 16 and found that 34 percent of deaths were reported among adults aged 85 and older. Forty-six percent of deaths were reported among those aged 65 to 84. Adults between the ages of 20 and 64 made up 20 percent of the deaths.

Public health officials and experts have warned for weeks that the elderly are at the highest risk of dying from the coronavirus. The analysis lined up with data released by China, which showed 80 percent of deaths there were in adults aged 60 and older.

Elderly people are likely at higher risk because immune systems weaken with age. Older adults are also more likely to have underlying health conditions that exacerbate illness.

The data analyzed by the CDC did not include information on the underlying health conditions of patients.

Similar info is coming out of Italy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ess-italy-says

TL;DR Among Deaths in Italy:

- 99% had another illness, .8% had no other illnesses, 25.1% had one other illness, ~25.6% had two other illnesses, ~48.5% had three more other illnesses.
- 75% had high blood pressure, 35% had diabetes.
- The average age of someone who has died of the virus in Italy is 79.5.
- Only 17 people under age 50 have died, all deaths under 40 were males with serious underlying medical conditions.

[Anastacy]

I hope all the banks don’t close down before they send out them gubment checks.

[Shadowferal]

Why Deaths from Coronavirus Are So High in Italy

One factor affecting the country’s death rate may be the age of its population—Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy’s deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local.

The overall mortality rate is always going to depend on the demographics of a population, said Aubree Gordon, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan. In this case, the reported mortality rate is not “age standardized,” which is a way to adjust for the underlying demographics of a population, she said.

Given Italy’s older population, “you would expect their mortality rate to be higher on average, all else being held equal,” compared with a country with a younger population, Gordon told Live Science.

Another issue may be the number of people in a given area who require medical care—having a lot of severely ill people in a single region could potentially overwhelm the medical system, Gordon said. She noted that this was likely the case in Wuhan, China, where the coronavirus outbreak began and which saw the majority of COVID-19 cases in China. A recent report from WHO found that the fatality rate was 5.8% in Wuhan, compared with 0.7% in the rest of the country, Live Science previously reported.

[zEmini]

I am not a doctor, but I would like to see how the symptoms correlate to blood types.

I hope all the banks don’t close down before they send out them gubment checks.

Essential service.

Banks, Factories, groceries stores, and distributors are all essential.

[PhaelixWW]

New York is blowing up right now. They went from 700 cases to over 3000 cases in, what, two days? They're reporting 20% hospitalization.

[Acidbaron]

Why Deaths from Coronavirus Are So High in Italy

One factor affecting the country’s death rate may be the age of its population—Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy’s deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local.

The overall mortality rate is always going to depend on the demographics of a population, said Aubree Gordon, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan. In this case, the reported mortality rate is not “age standardized,” which is a way to adjust for the underlying demographics of a population, she said.

Given Italy’s older population, “you would expect their mortality rate to be higher on average, all else being held equal,” compared with a country with a younger population, Gordon told Live Science.

Another issue may be the number of people in a given area who require medical care—having a lot of severely ill people in a single region could potentially overwhelm the medical system, Gordon said. She noted that this was likely the case in Wuhan, China, where the coronavirus outbreak began and which saw the majority of COVID-19 cases in China. A recent report from WHO found that the fatality rate was 5.8% in Wuhan, compared with 0.7% in the rest of the country, Live Science previously reported.

I still think it sends the wrong message to think that is only a risk factor if you are old or sick. Which is how a lot of people will read this kind of reporting and act accordingly. It would not surprise me this was the thinking of many in Italy when looking at China, that their were also difference that would make their situation better suited to deal with this virus.

Pneumonia can still be fatal, especially if you need to be hospitalized for it. Guess we'll see what happens here and everywhere else if that theory holds any water.

In short i think any theory about Italy and its death rates are too premature.