Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Muajin76]

Yep, you're thinking too much. Read up on how bats survive viruses.

Now consider the chain as a series of coin tosses.

The right bat had to have contact with the right bridge animal. Count that as mutation 1.

The bridge animal had to make it to market in good enough shape that it was passed through the market chain, and when it got to market it needed to be healthy enough somebody bought it. Lots of infected animals might never make it to that point, too lethal a virus and the animal dies before there is a chance for it to infect anyone. That's one of the comments on the Wuhan virus, that if it were more lethal it might have burned out by now.

The bridge animal that finally did get bought as exotic meat then had to have a version of the virus that could jump to a human host. Count that as mutation 2. That isn't enough though, the virus had to survive food prep -- for most meat the Chinese eat, that means at the least that it was very thoroughly cooked because the Chinese don't really like anything less than nuked from orbit levels of well done. All of that, and the human host then has to catch the virus.

Finally, the kicker is what we weren't sure about in the first days of the virus, was there human to human transmission? Count that as mutation 3. Once again, it isn't enough that there could be human to human transmission, there needs to be successful human to human transmission which means it got past things like people washing their hands and potential hosts' immune systems (although that may not be a major hurdle for a novel virus, it can still be a factor).

That's why I think the possible weakness of human hosts is significant.

Interesting. As I sip my morning coffee, i shall ponder what you wrote.
It could make sense, the situation had to have the right timing/host to find it's way into the populous.

[Shadowferal]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/asia/...hnk/index.html

Eight-six new deaths were reported, bringing the total up to 722, while the number of cases rose to 34,546 by the end of the day, according to China's National Health Commission. Two others have died outside mainland China.

[Muajin76]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/asia/...hnk/index.html

Eight-six new deaths were reported, bringing the total up to 722, while the number of cases rose to 34,546 by the end of the day, according to China's National Health Commission. Two others have died outside mainland China.

Today on wechathealth. 37,251 confirmed 28,942 possibles 2651 recovered 812 deaths.

[xenogear3]

Again, the number is meaningless.
The most important number is "infected, but still outside".

People go back to work this Monday.
The real test is next week.

[Muajin76]

Dang..with the new gathering rule in Beijing, all cinemas are closed too for awhile. T.T

- - - Updated - - -

Again, the number is meaningless.
The most important number is "infected, but still outside".

People go back to work this Monday.
The real test is next week.

Many teachers don't go back to work, as many students, if not all, will take online classes a week if not few weeks.

[kail]

Can anyone back up if this is for real or not? China Officials physically locking in residents.

[Muajin76]

Can anyone back up if this is for real or not? China Officials physically locking in residents.

I've heard about it in some places, but only while they spray to disinfect I think *could be wrong*. I have heard of some towns destroying bridges and roads leading into their town to keep out vehicles and people coming in.

With some of the measures going on *such as beijing making it a rule to restrict gatherings of more than 3 people or so* I could see locking in residents as being a possibility.

[shadowmouse]

Can anyone back up if this is for real or not?

Welcome to the Great Firewall, you have linked to reddit which is blocked here. I'm guessing it is similar to this post: https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...YUalG5-YKjpcfQ

It could be real, people do some dumb stuff as "pranks" so I can't entirely rule out that this might be staged, but on the whole it is probably real (Hanlon's Razor again). From the article, it seems like the people were "corona virus infected" whatever the hell that is supposed to mean. What I can say is that China is a big place, think of it like the US. What is done at state and local levels in the US doesn't necessarily reflect broader policy, and in China lower level units are rather notorious for putting their own spin on policies. I have not seen any indication that this is widespread.

[Zatheyll]

They just delayed schools another three weeks in Guangdong, and villages throughout the province are starting to wall off all entrances. The one I'm in is putting up 10-15 foot temporary walls, and all roads in have checkpoints asking for name, travel history, if I'm a resident, and passport number. It seems even for a province where new cases are massively decreasing they're not messing around in getting rid of this virus.

[shadowmouse]

@Zatheyll

Well, it's Guangdong! They have a bit of a history with that: https://www.chinahighlights.com/guan...d-villages.htm

[breadisfunny]

confirmed case of the virus reported now in wisconsin.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/...s-total-to-12/
individual appears to be doing ok.
saw some people in the store with face masks on. which was wierd.

[Muajin76]

So...that canadian guy that pranked the plane and the 2 american teens that pranked walmart/causing 10k worth of damage. All 3 of them deserve to be injected with the coronavirus for real. let them suffer for their pranks.

- - - Updated - - -

confirmed case of the virus reported now in wisconsin.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/...s-total-to-12/
individual appears to be doing ok.
saw some people in the store with face masks on. which was wierd.

Do you know where in WI? I have family there, around central WI.

[Yunru]

I have a felling there is gona be a purge. Also wtf happened to Dr. Lee.

[xenogear3]

Can anyone back up if this is for real or not? China Officials physically locking in residents.

Yes, Chinese Officials have that power, and they abuse it to an unimaginable way.
Currently, the strategy is to lockdown everywhere.
Only one family member is allowed to go outside once every 2 days.
(In the link you provide, they cannot go outside at all.)

However, this cannot last forever. No foreign will invest in a country like this.
The central government wants people to go back to work. This stops the lockdown.
The local government is too afraid, because it is his responsibility.

[Muajin76]

Yes, Chinese Officials have that power, and they abuse it to an unimaginable way.
Currently, the strategy is to lockdown everywhere.
Only one family member is allowed to go outside once every 2 days.
(In the link you provide, they cannot go outside at all.)

However, this cannot last forever. No foreign will invest in a country like this.
The central government wants people to go back to work. This stops the lockdown.
The local government is too afraid, because it is his responsibility.

I've gone out 1-2 times a day. must be a community by community basis.

[xenogear3]

I've gone out 1-2 times a day. must be a community by community basis.

Which city do you live in?
Some cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, are not allowed to lockdown.

[shadowmouse]

@Muajin76 Quiet you! You know nothing, you only live there. If you are not on the bandwagon, you are obviously wumao, and don't dare call him a troll because that would be infracted. No, of course he doesn't have to actually link any kind of proof, he is an expert! /sarcasm

[Zatheyll]

It seems to many here and in the West that China can do no right. If they lock down cities, that's a removal of personal freedoms. If they don't lock down, they're a danger to the world. If they quarantine people who have it, that's forced arrest, if they don't quarantine people, they're letting it spread with no care. If they don't keep a constant tally of cases, they're hiding something. If they keep a constant tally of cases including critical and severe and a map of each case, they're still hiding something. Food gone in supermarkets? Must be because China's doing something wrong, definitely not because an entire city is locked down from any logistical framework for transporting goods.

Can't trust me though, I must be a Communist spokesperson with a gun behind my head, can only believe the rumormongers of people who've never even been to Asia, let alone China, and don't know the first thing of Asian culture and its family and society centered approach.

[Muajin76]

Which city do you live in?
Some cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, are not allowed to lockdown.

Beijing doesn't have lockdowns but they do have community checks. You have to write down your ID/passport number, they give you a special card that you show to the guards/volunteers at the gate. The guards all know i live there, so most times i don't need to show my card. They did institute the gathering rule. No more than 3 people gathered in one spot. *supermarkets etc are excluded* even some places like BK, pizza hut are closed for awhile, but other locations are open.

- - - Updated - - -

@Muajin76 Quiet you! You know nothing, you only live there. If you are not on the bandwagon, you are obviously wumao, and don't dare call him a troll because that would be infracted. No, of course he doesn't have to actually link any kind of proof, he is an expert! /sarcasm

Blasphemy!! Most of the info i write here is given by my gf/chinese media. Just because i look like a troll, hairy feet and all, doesn't mean i am a troll. *sure i have wild spiky hair but it's not colored*

[shadowmouse]

hairy feet and all

Gaaaah! Vulpera are everywhere now!

I've lived here long enough that the security staff know me and apparently think I'm plucky. They remember when I was in a wheelchair and will greet me with a wave and thumbs up. It is one of the new style complexes that uses facial recognition for the pedestrian gates and the apartment buildings so I've never been bothered about a card (we have a designated police sub station in the complex and I'm on file there anyway). There is, however, a temperature check to exit the complex and one to reenter, and they have added a van with medical personnel to do screening for anyone who might be ill.