1. #4701
    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    Those numbers are even higher than what outlets reported earlier. They were saying under 55 was at ~20%. Collectively its at 48%. 20% for 20-44 by itself is huge.


    Also think the numbers are the jump between Feb and March? Maybe?
    Hmm? I wasn't refering to the total amount (which does mean 51% of cases are below 55), I was talking about the hospitalization and ICU statistics. I think the statistic anomaly between 19 and 20 is remarkable and there is probably a reason for that. That overall cases are high in the group is hardly surprising, afterall they are constant told it's only dangerous for the old and sick and many are expected to still work.

    Edit: I think you misinterpreted them (or did I?), the percentage is for people in that bracket, otherwise we would have more than 100% hospitalization rate. Combined all below 55 would probably average out to about a 20% hospitalization rate, give or take a couple percentage points.
    Last edited by Haidaes; 2020-03-20 at 06:20 AM.
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  2. #4702
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    Here is what it's like in China, and also a few blurbs about what life is like in a post-corona virus world.
    China trying to play the victim here is not going to go over at all well, not while this is still very much n the early stages.

  3. #4703
    Merely a Setback cubby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zaktar View Post
    Yup. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...040314568.html

    Indian authorities have said they will not expand coronavirus testing, as most affected nations are doing, despite criticism that limited testing could leave COVID-19 cases undetected in the world's second-most populous country...

    India is conducting only about 90 tests a day, despite having the capacity for as many as 8,000. So far, 11,500 people have been tested, according to The Associated Press.

    Balaram Bharghava, who heads the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the country's top medical research body, said the guidance was "premature" for India, where community transmission has not yet been detected.
    Jesus - that is bad. Really bad. They aren't even going to test, so they won't know - at all - how many cases they could have (using models). And with their water and cleaning problems, Coronavirus is just going to run rampant through their larger cities.
    Last edited by cubby; 2020-03-20 at 06:21 AM.
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  4. #4704
    Quote Originally Posted by Zaktar View Post
    What an incredibly disingenuous post.

    a) Very little time is spent finger pointing compared to fighting the disaster which is unfolding

    b) The review of how and why our society could have done better will be thorough

    c) The review of how much to trust the Chinese government after their poor practices and lies instigated a global catastrophe will be thorough as well

    d) Given those lies, we are meant to trust their reporting now?
    I would prefer to have as few people around me die as possible. There are quite a few virus cases near where I live, and the numbers are growing daily. So yeah, my preference is to put our efforts into fighting the disaster which is unfolding.

    Furthermore, the country I am from, the US, has done an awful lot wrong as well. A recent article shows that 5 US Senators were warned about how bad the virus would be in the US, and instead of alerting the public and working to ramp up preparations, kept their mouths shut as the official US position was that there was nothing to worry about, and instead made stock transactions to pad their personal bankrolls.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    Jesus - that is bad. Really bad. They aren't even going to test, so they won't know - at all - how many cases they could have (using models). And with their water and cleaning problems, Coronavirus is just going to run rampant through their larger cities.
    And oh yeah, India does not seem to be dealing with it well either.

  5. #4705
    The Unstoppable Force PACOX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Haidaes View Post
    Hmm? I wasn't refern to the total amount (which does mean 51% of cases are below 55), I was talking about the hospitalization and ICU statistics. I think the statistic anomaly between 19 and 20 is remarkable and there is probably a reason for that. That overall cases are high in the group is hardly surprising, afterall they are constant told it's only dangerous for the old and sick.

    Edit: I think you misinterpreted them (or i did), the percentage is for people in that bracket, otherwise we would have more than 100% hospitalization rate. Combined all below 50% would probably average out to about 20%, give or take a couple percentage points.
    I'm reading it as:

    Age group -> percentage of sick age group hospitalized -> percentage of sick age group that were admitted to the ICU -> percentage of the case that were fatal.

    I thank the range between the percentages is the delta (change) from Feb - March. Thats what I'm not so sure about. Or maybe is they are saying it could be anywhere between the low and high number? I'm not sure.

    I see people on other sites trying to downplay the stats, which is now how stats work.

    Also 705 is a TON of cases relative to the rest of the group

  6. #4706
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    China trying to play the victim here is not going to go over at all well, not while this is still very much n the early stages.
    So we break the world up into groups of people all trying to convince everyone else that they were more victimized than anyone else?

    On a practical note, once this is all over, this will all be forgotten. Already, in the US, there is a wide range of opinions as to what Trump actually did and did not do in January and February, which was only 2 months ago. By like July there will be absolutely no chance of getting anywhere near the truth of what "really happened".

  7. #4707
    Quote Originally Posted by szechuan View Post
    The Numbers are directly from the CDC

    All indicate that Hospitalization rates for people 44-20 and younger make up 20% of Hospitalizations.
    I am aware the numbers are directly from the CDC. I never said they weren't. My point is that the "20% of people age 20-44" stat is useless. The range is far too broad, especially when compared to the other age brackets. It is meaningless for anyone in the lower half.

    Also, linking the images of the charts shows you did not read my post. I had the second chart directly in the post of mine that you responded to.

  8. #4708
    This virus will destroy our life and all countries economic value too and its easy to say that stay at home but its very hard for the people who get earning on daily basis and due to this shit we are unable to go our office like i am also working in software development company but now i am at office but dont know how much time i will come there at some point we will also heard that now you should do work from your home too as well. Stay safe and healthy

  9. #4709
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeth Hawkins View Post
    I am aware the numbers are directly from the CDC. I never said they weren't. My point is that the "20% of people age 20-44" stat is useless. The range is far too broad, especially when compared to the other age brackets. It is meaningless for anyone in the lower half.
    This is useless how? Are you a healthcare professional and/or working with the CDC?

    Also, linking the images of the charts shows you did not read my post. I had the second chart directly in the post of mine that you responded to.
    I did, you were also not specifying which Report you were talking about and made no mention of the CDC in your Post.
    Last edited by szechuan; 2020-03-20 at 06:57 AM.
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  10. #4710
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/new...as/ar-BB11qg9e

    Title: Coronavirus: State Department tells Americans: 'Do not travel' abroad, come home if overseas

    The gist is: the State Department is swamped with trying to help out Americans that are overseas. They are strongly recommending that Americans abroad avoid international travel, and return as soon as possible if they plan at all to return to the US. And, they are highly recommending that Americans do not travel abroad at all.

    The State Department told Americans not to travel abroad at all, the strongest U.S. alert yet as the novel coronavirus continued its steady march across the globe.

    The department on Thursday issued a Level 4 advisory for travel abroad – "do not travel" – only four days after it issued a Level 3 advisory that urged Americans to "reconsider travel."

    "In countries where commercial departure options remain available, U.S. citizens who live in the United States should arrange for immediate return to the United States, unless they are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period," the advisory said. "U.S. citizens who live abroad should avoid all international travel."

  11. #4711
    Brewmaster Hansworst's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edwardbailey View Post
    This virus will destroy our life and all countries economic value too and its easy to say that stay at home but its very hard for the people who get earning on daily basis and due to this shit we are unable to go our office like i am also working in software development company but now i am at office but dont know how much time i will come there at some point we will also heard that now you should do work from your home too as well. Stay safe and healthy
    That was one long sentence, breath for god's sake.

  12. #4712
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    The numbers are not incorrect. And they literally come from the report.
    That is my bad. I misread the NYT article, as saying 20% of the age group was hospitalized, and 12% of the age group was in ICU.

  13. #4713
    Reading up on Italy with almost 3500 deaths yesterday... it's quite saddening to hear 13 people treating patients succumbed to the virus. And this is after the call out to retired people of the medical profession...

    True heroes risking their lives.

  14. #4714
    Quote Originally Posted by szechuan View Post
    This is useless how? Are you a healthcare professional and/or working with the CDC?
    If you are age 20-44, you have a 20% of being hospitalized due to this virus. What if you are 20-25 years old? Is it still 20%, or is it closer to the 2% of the 0-19 bracket? How close? At what years does the hospitalization chance cross 10%? The stat is useless.
    Quote Originally Posted by szechuan View Post
    I did, you were also not specifying which Report you were talking about and made no mention of the CDC in your Post.
    The NYT article you linked discussed the CDC report, and I started my response to you with "this report". Which other report would I be discussing?

  15. #4715
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeth Hawkins View Post
    If you are age 20-44, you have a 20% of being hospitalized due to this virus. What if you are 20-25 years old? Is it still 20%, or is it closer to the 2% of the 0-19 bracket? How close? At what years does the hospitalization chance cross 10%? The stat is useless.
    That is a misquotation of the CDC study. Out of people who are hospitalized, 20% of them are in the 20-44 age group which is different from 20% of all people infected in that age group being hospitalized.
    Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 26% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years

  16. #4716
    I am Murloc! shadowmouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zeth Hawkins
    The stat is useless.
    Let me distinguish first between fatalism and practical application. I might get hit by lightning, there are statistics for it. Fatalism is me standing knee deep in water, waving a long copper pipe over my head and yelling that all gods are bastards (nod to Pratchett and Rincewind) and then saying that if lightning is going to get me it is going to get me. Statistics can be useful for risk assessment, but they are just statistics. As a practical matter, if your last words as you're struck by lightning are "but there was only an N% chance of that happening" it is rather pointless because they're still your last words and improbable as it might have been lightning got you.

    So, napkin math or fancy super computer modeling, neither do much but fuel conversation for most. For many, however, stats still provide a way to try to understand things. Just keep everything in perspective.
    "No one -- however smart, however well-educated, however experienced -- is the suppository of all wisdom"

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  17. #4717
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeth Hawkins View Post
    The stat is useless.
    Are you suggesting that the CDC is trying to scare you?

    At what years does the hospitalization chance cross 10%?
    That also depends on your over-all Health and Immune system. It show's that young people are definitely at risk.

    I wasn't talking about Hospitalization Chances, I was talking about Total Hospitalizations recorded due to the Coronavirus.

    What if you are 20-25 years old? Is it still 20%, or is it closer to the 2% of the 0-19 bracket? How close?
    You're still at risk of catching the virus and may still end up in the Hospital. The Data shows that 20% of all hospitalizations were people aged 20-44.
    Last edited by szechuan; 2020-03-20 at 08:02 AM.
    Americans are the Chinese of the west. The main reason people tolerate them is because they are too big to ignore.

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  18. #4718
    10k deaths surpassed, almost 250k infections total.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowferal View Post
    No grannies here.
    And the elderly are on lockdown in my area.

    And we had dozens of people in the park playing baseball. (I admit I was surprised.)
    Of course you avoided answer. In the meantime I will worry about my grandma and others, as I dont hate old people...

  19. #4719
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    10k deaths surpassed, almost 250k infections total.

    Of course you avoided answer. In the meantime I will worry about my grandma and others, as I dont hate old people...
    10k losses in a middle century war would be considered minor causalities.

    Yes its scary for some, but one way or another thinning out the numbers somewhat through war or disease its good for the planet and its resources in the long run.
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    Last edited by Rozz; 2020-03-20 at 12:48 PM. Reason: Minor Trolling
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  20. #4720
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeth Hawkins View Post
    This report, and the included image, are borderline atrocious. This is so poorly constructed, seemingly for the purpose of making headlines (with incorrect numbers) to scare the younger generations.

    The given age range of 20-44 is a span of 24 years, whereas the older age brackets in the study are of 9 year ranges.
    • 0-19: 123 cases, 2% hospitalization, no ICU, no death
    • 20-44: 705 cases, 20% hospitalization, 4% ICU, .2% death
    • 45-54: 429 cases, 28% hospitalization, 10% ICU, .8% death
    • 55-64: 429 cases, 30% hospitalization, 11% ICU, 2.6% death
    • 65-74: 409 cases, 43% hospitalization, 18% ICU, 4.9% death
    • 75-84: 210 cases, 58% hospitalization, 31% ICU, 10.5% death
    • 84+: 144 cases, 70% hospitalization, 29% ICU, 27.3% death

    It would have been helpful and more truthful to break up the 20-44 bracket into smaller segments. Better yet, divide them all into five year brackets for more accuracy. When does the number really start to climb after age 19?

    I do not see how scaring millennials like this is a good thing.
    Scaring people clearly has a downside, but it could have the benefit of making them more careful - lowering the number of cases.

    And the underlying report also note that testing was insufficient - so we don't know the real numbers.

    However, there is something else that is odd with those numbers - the ICU-percentage is lower for 84+ even though there are more deaths. It could be rng, it could be that the cases were detected too late, but it could also be that they are already down-prioritized.

    Additionally regarding the underlying data it is even less accurate than I thought:
    data were missing for key variables of interest. Data on age and outcomes, including hospitalization, ICU admission, and death, were missing for 9%–53% of cases,
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6912e2_w

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