1. #5201
    Quote Originally Posted by omeomorfismo View Post
    let me guess. you were sleeping during physics classes (or you didnt never meet quantum physics)?
    Physics, math, statistics, biology basically he slept through all of the science stuff.

  2. #5202
    The Insane PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crissi View Post
    In epidemiology, problem solving is deeply intertwined with future predictions, because the entire POINT is to prevent the worst case scenario. You cant formulate a plan to minimize thingd without first modeling that worst case scenario.

    You have to know how a thing will eventually potentially affect a population.
    Right just don't make a model that assumes that the virus will keep evolving forward in time as it has in the past. It won't, the situation will change in ways that cannot be factored into a model and it is dangerous to assume that we can rely on historical generalizations.
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    Logical Fallacies: Ad hominem, Generalizing history to pre-determine the future.

  3. #5203
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    Right just don't make a model that assumes that the virus will keep evolving forward in time as it has in the past.
    Viruses always evolve forward in time.
    Americans are the Chinese of the west. The main reason people tolerate them is because they are too big to ignore.

    "Admit nothing, deny everything, launch counterattack." - Roger Stone (Trump's Friend, Ally, and Campaign Advisor)

  4. #5204
    Quote Originally Posted by SoLoR1 View Post
    Numbers there are huge... however average age is like close to 80 and almost all had other illness, they could very well die from normal pneumonia or flu... Italy have one of the oldest population, thats why they have so many deaths... only issue with this virus is no vaccine (like flu)/tested treatment and that is highly contagious, other then that its just like slightly worse cold... i personally think in some countrys they go way to far with limiting what you can do or not... for example our country is Italy's neighbor we dont have even 400 cases and i think it is 1 dead and they are thinking about locking stuff down and limit movement to areas where you live. Its fear mongering at this point... i get social distancing and being vigilant and clean you hands... but with few 100 cases and 1 dead locking everything down is way to much...
    At the rate of growth it won't be long until its thousands per day.

    As for where you live no its not fearmongering. You don't recognize what's going on. You have 400 reported cases right now. When Italy initiated its lock down there were only 9,000 cases. Now there are 53,000.

    If your country leaves initiating its lock down until it also has thousands of confirmed cases then it will already be too late, and in 2-3 weeks time it will be in exactly the same place as Italy.

    The lockdown needs to happen now before the disease can reach a point where its able to escalate out of control. That means not locking down tomorrow or the day after, but today, now.
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    You haven't seen nothing yet, we trumpsters will definitely be getting some cool uniforms soon I hope.

  5. #5205
    Moderator Crissi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    Right just don't make a model that assumes that the virus will keep evolving forward in time as it has in the past. It won't, the situation will change in ways that cannot be factored into a model and it is dangerous to assume that we can rely on historical generalizations.
    Good models should have variables that are changeable, so that the model reflects real time. Models are not ever meant to say 'This WILL happen", only "This will likely happen based on these current variables". If something changes, then the model needs to be adjusted. If the virus has shown to be evolvable, then that needs to be included.

    Frankly, I just dont think you understand how proper modeling, and problem solving, work in general because you are considerably misunderstanding what modeling is, and what the purpose is.
    Last edited by Crissi; 2020-03-21 at 09:28 PM.

  6. #5206
    The Insane PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by omeomorfismo View Post
    let me guess. you were sleeping during physics classes (or you didnt never meet quantum physics)?
    Nah, if you have an argument for something then make it so we can compare and contrasts. If it's not about the virus or epedimiology then make it a PM that way it's not off-topic.
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    Logical Fallacies: Ad hominem, Generalizing history to pre-determine the future.

  7. #5207
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    We will do random surveys to see how many were infected, as WHO have a protocol in place for that, anti-bodies to test, and some countries have signed up for it.

    Similarly as polling it will not be 100% accurate - but good enough to understand if we currently had 300k cases, 1 million, or more.
    Surveys that require tests are very expensive, so it will not happen.

    Surveys that just ask people are pointless because symptoms are similar to cold/flu, so many people can easily mistake it. If someone has mild symptoms, they are just told to stay home and no actual testing is done, so many don't even bother reporting until they get seriously ill.

    Surveys are pointless waste of people's time and money.
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  8. #5208
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    Nah, if you have an argument for something then make it so we can compare and contrasts.
    He did, you're clearly a Science Denier.
    Last edited by szechuan; 2020-03-21 at 09:31 PM.
    Americans are the Chinese of the west. The main reason people tolerate them is because they are too big to ignore.

    "Admit nothing, deny everything, launch counterattack." - Roger Stone (Trump's Friend, Ally, and Campaign Advisor)

  9. #5209
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by alexw View Post
    At the rate of growth it won't be long until its thousands per day.

    As for where you live no its not fearmongering. You don't recognize what's going on. You have 400 reported cases right now. When Italy initiated its lock down there were only 9,000 cases. Now there are 53,000.

    If your country leaves initiating its lock down until it also has thousands of confirmed cases then it will already be too late, and in 2-3 weeks time it will be in exactly the same place as Italy.

    The lockdown needs to happen now before the disease can reach a point where its able to escalate out of control. That means not locking down tomorrow or the day after, but today, now.
    Every 2 days it doubles more or less.

  10. #5210
    Merely a Setback cubby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    Yeah it is because projection can't tell you how the future will unfold because it has no way factoring in what new behaviours and solutions people will implement tomorrow, next week, next month, etc.

    - - - Updated - - -



    No you're misunderstanding my point, I'm saying math and statistics can't be used to tell you the future. It's been a common misconception century after century that "if we just get more data then society will be predictable", unfortunately that is based on a misunderstanding and will never be right.
    So far you've spewed this anti-science crap, with no links, no cites, no logic - just your feels that people who spent their lives working with communicable diseases know less than you do.

    Until you show us more than your *feels*, we'll just keep pointing out your anti-science stances, and watching your tautological tantrums.
    No one is above the law!

  11. #5211
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    We will do random surveys to see how many were infected, as WHO have a protocol in place for that, anti-bodies to test, and some countries have signed up for it.

    Similarly as polling it will not be 100% accurate - but good enough to understand if we currently had 300k cases, 1 million, or more.
    My point was that we would never have truly accurate numbers. What we will have will be an approximate...probably a range between X and Y...but we will never know the exact number.

  12. #5212
    Quote Originally Posted by BoltBlaster View Post
    Surveys that require tests are very expensive, so it will not happen.
    Countries have already signed up for them. Those tests are cheap - anti-bodies instead of PCR.

    Searching online found that there already seems to be manufacturing of them for no more than 2$ (in bulk orders, of course), so I assume those surveys are either happening soon or already started.

  13. #5213
    MoH announced that a big spike in confirmed cases next several hours, as apparently testing labs are still working in reduced capacity during weekend.

    Expectations is about 300 more cases added to current 900-ish.

  14. #5214
    Quote Originally Posted by Egomaniac View Post
    My point was that we would never have truly accurate numbers. What we will have will be an approximate...probably a range between X and Y...but we will never know the exact number.
    There is very little where we have exact knowledge, we manage anyway.
    At least it will be more useful than currently having 265,361 confirmed cases.

  15. #5215
    The Insane PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crissi View Post
    Good models should have variables that are changeable, so that the model reflects real time. Models are not ever meant to say 'This WILL happen", only "This will likely happen based on these current variables". If something changes, then the model needs to be adjusted.

    Frankly, I just dont think you understand how proper modeling, and problem solving, work in general because you are considerably misunderstanding what modeling is, and what the purpose is.
    If you update the variables at each timepoint then all you're doing is modelling the present moment, which is fine. But there's no scientific basis for imagining a new posterior/anterior value beyond the current value.
    Last edited by PC2; 2020-03-21 at 10:06 PM.
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    Logical Fallacies: Ad hominem, Generalizing history to pre-determine the future.

  16. #5216
    Herald of the Titans ercarp's Avatar
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    They reported our first death in Finland today. We have 512 active cases, the majority of them are in my area as far as I know.

  17. #5217
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    Quote Originally Posted by szechuan View Post
    He did, you're clearly a Science Denier.
    Nah I'm pro-science, anti-prophecy. If you think you know the future that is fine, just don't claim that your future knowledge is a scientific authority that can't be wrong. That's called dogmatism.
    -------
    Logical Fallacies: Ad hominem, Generalizing history to pre-determine the future.

  18. #5218
    Immortal callipygoustp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    Nah I'm pro-science, anti-prophecy. If you think you know the future that is fine, just don't claim that your future knowledge is a scientific authority that can't be wrong. That's called dogmatism.
    Ignoring science does NOT make you pro-science.

    Contradicting science with "feels > reals" arguments does NOT make you pro-science.

  19. #5219
    Stood in the Fire Dentelan's Avatar
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    LOL. Few hours ago my friend told me he got corona, like already a week. He s not giving a fuck even a bit, *Feels like flu, i dont care, i just stay home. Why i didnt tell? you didnt asked*
    Roflmao.

  20. #5220
    Merely a Setback cubby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    Nah I'm pro-science, anti-prophecy. If you think you know the future that is fine, just don't claim that your future knowledge is a scientific authority that can't be wrong. That's called dogmatism.
    But you said previously, and we we're all pointing out how wrong you are, here:
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    No that's prophecy-based nonsense that's probably derived from "pattern projection". How many people actually get infected depends on how effective people are at finding new solutions tomorrow, the day after, and so on. Which is unpredictable in principle.
    Anyone else feels the *WHOOSH* as those goalposts flew by?

    You'll let us know where any of us said those models couldn't be wrong, won't'cha?
    No one is above the law!

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